Bellator 282 Tape Study Notes

Betting breakdown

Bellator 282

This card is has some great fights, but also some really low level fights that aren’t worth breaking down. I still can’t get myself to bet on some these crazy Bellator favorites that have no legit wins. There are some spots I love on this card. Let’s focus on those!

Gegard Mousasi vs Johnny Eblen

Mousasi has been one of my favorite fighters for a long long time. He is so confident in his skills that he can look bored at times. His striking and boxing are incredible, take down defense well improved and he can do damage off his back. He has looked better with age. He absolutely demolished Mr Van Zant. Mousasi is one of the best fighters in the world in any organization

Elben is someone to be excited about. He was a division 1 wrestler at the university of Missouri and he now trains at ATT and has been putting in work with Jorge masvidal. He’s 9-0 and has extreme power in his hands. He has fast entrances. Can be wild at times, but is able to get away with a bit, because he is not nervous about being taken down. Dude is strong as an ox and can slam his opponents around the ring. He sells tshirts of him suplexing a dude and it says “thanks for flying air Eblen” He’s been sparring with Sean Strickland for this fight and I think that’s a decent sparring partner for Mousasi

Mousasi may have to deal with some takedowns early, but he will have a huge advantage on the feet and will be a threat to finish the fight any time they are standing. Mousasi gets another finish here

Danny Sabatello vs Leandro Higo

Danny Sabatello is the real deal. After his last performance he’s impossible not to bet on. He has a huge mouth and is a huge favorite over a fighter in Higo who is pretty good, but Sabs wrestling and tenacity will be too much. I’ll have him in some parlays

Enrique Barzola vs Magomed Magomedov

Barzola never should have been released by the UFC. He has fought really tough comp and has some really good wins. He was thrown to the wolves in his Bellator but against Darian Caldwell and he finished him in the 3rd. Barzola showed he can wrestle with anyone and that he is sharp on the feet as well. Barzola trains at aka with khabib and the crew and it shows. He fights like he’s a Russian. Tough as nails too. Fought a tough ass fight against Nikita Mikhailov which he showed his grit and toughness again and came out on top

Magomed is an explosive striker. He’s fast on the feet. Explosive striker with great spinning techniques. Can be wild at times. Classic Russian wrestler. Is strong and is capable of lifting his opponents up and slamming them. Very strong wrestler. He struggled with the athleticism of Stots and was taken down and reversed in that fight. Gas tank looked good and he was able to defend subs and even reverse position late in the third.

Barzola is confident going into this fight saying he is going to push the pace. Wants to break Magomed and says he’s going to destroy him. Barzola has fought the better comp and I think he’s being slept on yet again. Picking Barzola in a tough fight

Alexander Shabliy vs Brent Primus

Shabily is one of the most exciting prospects to come along in a very long time. This dudes striking is next level. He is very defensively sound, has excellent footwork, keeps his opponent at range and explodes into them with knees and multiple punches. He throws sick combinations with punches kicks and knees. He is well rounded. Has good takedown defense and can wrestle when necessary. He’s been calling primus out for a while now saying that he’s scared to fight him. Some good mind games from Shabily. Hoping to get Primus over aggressive, because Shabily prefers to counter strike

Brent Primus is another well rounded fighter. He’s fought good comp through out his career. He throws nasty leg kicks and has power in his hands. He’s a beast on the ground too and has some sick submission wins. Have to think he’ll want to take this fight to the ground

Shabily is the younger faster fighter here. He will have a big advantage on the feet and I think his foot work and defensive wrestling will be good enough to keep it there. Shabily kos the aging Primus and proves he is the real deal

Sabah Homasi vs Maycon Mendonca

Sabah is a savage. He comes out swinging and almost always wins round one no matter who he is fighting. His problem has been cardio. Very strong and very aggressive. Is always the fighter coming forward. Has excellent submissions and excellent hands

Maycon is a tall lanky fighter. He’s good from range with some tricky kicks. Doesn’t move his head off center well. He is a tough guy and showed decent takedown defense against willis, but ended up succumbing to the strength every time. This will be a problem against sabah. Has been kod in the past

I think sabah may run right through maycon. Maycon is too hitable for someone who hits as hard as sabah. I think the strength advantage will be evident too. I’d be surprised if this went to the judges

Cody Law vs James Gonzalez

Cody Law is a huge favorite and for good reason. The American top team wrestling stand out has looked like a world beater. This is a big step up in competition. Gonzalez has fought a high level of comp and will be the first step up for Law. It’s an appropriate step though. Law continues to cruise. At -700 I may just stay away though

Lucas Brennan vs Johnny Soto

Brennan, like law, is another very bright prospect that is taking a step up in competition. Brennan is only 22 years old and has some sick grappling. He’s a gym rat and seems to be doing everything the right way. These step ups do scare me a little, but I see Brennan winning this fight against a game Soto. I don’t think this ends in the first round. Soto may surprise him a bit early…. Also a chance Brennan is that good and runs through him

Dan Moret vs Killys Mota

I’m having a really hard time with this fight. I can’t get a good read on either fighter. I lean Mota, but could go either way. I’m not your guy for this fight

Aaron Jeffery vs Fabio Aguiar

Jeffery is 11 and 3 and his only 3 losses are to legit comp. he lost to brendan Allen and sean Brady and Caio. All legit ufc contenders. He has wins over now ufc fighter Andre Petroski and dwcs winner Collin Huckbody. He is from Canada but moved to Las Vegas a year ago and now trains with Sean Strickland at syndicate mma. He’s extremely tough and took some big punches against Petroski and never seemed bothered by them. He doesn’t except being taken down always working to get up. He’s good everywhere. Does great clinch work. He won his last fight and Bellator signed him. A little slow

Fabio has okay standup with a little power, but he’s more of a grappler. He has good submissions and strong ground and pound. He has said he feels at home when it hits the ground. He’s 1-1 in his last two fights with his last fight being a split Dec win

This is a close fight. If Fabio gets jeffery down he could be in trouble. Jeffery is battle tested though and I think he’ll want it more. Jeffery is able to get up and defend most takedowns. Jeffery will do more damage on the feet and get a UD

Cat Zingano vs Pam Sorenson

Cat Zingano wins this fight easy. I like her as a parlay piece. Should be better everywhere and looks to be in tremendous shape for this fight. I also love how she’s been focusing on the mental part of her game. Zingano is a good parlay piece here