DWCS Week 2 Tape Study Notes + Full Betting Card
Full card analysis + Props and Parlays
DWCS Week 2
Betting card
Bets
Connor Matthews +100 bet 2 units to win 2
Shimon Smotritsky +200 bet 2 units to win 4
Charlie Campbell -145 bet 1.45 units to win 1
Props
Charlie Campbell by tko +120 bet 3 units to win 3.6
Shimon Smotritsky ITD +275 bet 2 unit to win 5.5
Shimon Smotritsky round 1 +550 bet .5 units to win 2.75
Connor Matthews round 1 +400 bet .25 units to win 1
Parlays
Waldo + Ross -120 bet 6 units to win 5
Connor Matthews vs Francis Marshall
Matthews is 30 years old, he’s 5-0 and he trains out of Lauzon MMA. All 5 of his wins are by finish, 4 of them by submission. He hasn’t been very active throughout his career. He has 1 fight in 2019, 2 in 2020, 1 in 2021 and 1 in 2022. Not only has he not been active, but every one of his oppenents have a losing record. 1-4, 16-105, 2-3, 2-15, 0-8 are his oppenents records. We’ve seen some fighters on DWCS who have fought low level mma, but this is by far the lowest I’ve seen. He’s extremely aggressive and is always looking for the finish. Can be wild at times. Military vet
Francis Marshall is only 23 years old. He’s fighting out of Peligrino MMA in New Jersey and he is 5-0. His opponents are also very low level, but at least some of them have winning records. He’s got 3 finishes all by rear naked choke. He’s a good counter striker, but looks susceptible to the takedown. In one of the fights I watched he got ankle picked, it was a weak attempt, but it still brought him to his knees. Has high aspirations. Wants to challenge top 15 in the ufc within 3 years. He’s a New Jersey firefighter.
This is a low level fight. Both guys are very green and unproven. But I do think it’s a man fighting a kid here. Matthews will be the stronger guy. Marshall may have the higher ceiling, but at 23 he’s not ready. Matthews gets the finish
Billy Goff vs Shimon Smotritsky
Goff is a local guy from CT. I actually watched him fight a guy from my hometown years ago (Goff won that fight by tko) he’s fought some decent comp. His toughest test to date was against Justin Sumter. Sumter had a huge size advantage (took place at 185. Goff is fighting at 170 on DWCS.) and he had a big edge in experience. He battered Goff in the first round, but Goff survived and put it on Sumter in round two and eventually got the finish. Goff is pretty well rounded. Nice takedowns and is a very competent grappler. His striking is a bit wild, he tends to duck his head and throw, but it’s effective
Shimon will get a second chance on DWCS. He lost his first attempt against Mike Mallot. Hes big for the weight class at 6’2 has good striking. Loves getting his opponents against the cage and looking for trip takedowns. He is very slick on the ground. Transitions easily and effortlessly. Is able to get himself out of trouble with sweeps as well. Tough kid. He trains in Israel, but when he comes to the states he goes to syndicate. Kids got power in his hands. Very physical guy
This is a close fight. Shimon will be the bigger man and I think he poses a lot of problems for Goff. At +200 Shimon is a major value play
Shannon Ross vs Vinicius Salvador
This kid Vinicius is one of the wildest strikers I’ve seen. Fights with his hands down by his side. He does hit hard, but that is it. He is going to get walked down by Ross. Ross will have advantages everywhere. As I type this the line is -210 Ross. I bet it gets out of control by fight time. Ross wins easy
Danilo Suzart vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
Danilo is 9-1, he’s 31 years old and he’s on a 3 fight winning streak. He’s very undersized for the heavyweight division. Listed at 6ft and he has a good amount of fat on him. He is pretty explosive, strength seems to be there too. He loves to duck his head and wing looping punches. Tendency to spam over hand rights. He’s a gamer. Tough dude who enjoys fighting
Acosta is massive. He’s 6’4 with an 80 inch reach. He’s 6-0 and is 30 years old. Has 7 pro boxing fights as well and he’s 4-3. His best win is over Mo Dereese in Bellator. Acosta has decent boxing and hits very hard.
Fight shouldn’t be all that close. Acosta is too big and has the technical edge on the feet. Danilo likes to stand and bang so it’s a perfect matchup. Acosta gets a second round tko
Charlie Campbell vs Chris Duncan
Campbell is 27 years old and he’s 6-1 in his career. He trains out of longo Weidman mma. He’s 6 ft tall with a 72 inch reach. He will only have a half inch reach advantage, but this kid uses every bit of his reach. His striking is accurate and he’s one of those guys that has snap at the end of his punches. He kind of reminds me of a young macgregor in that aspect. Mixes things up very well to the body and head. Has nasty leg kicks. This kid seems to be the real deal
Chris Duncan is 8-1. He trains out of American top team and has fought some tough comp throughout his career. His one loss was on DWCS against Slavaclause. He is a fighter that always comes forward and has great striking. He rips to the body and loves to set up a power right hand that he throws very straight. He is technical in all aspects. Kid can wrestle too. His one issue is that he leaves his head on a straight line. He is very hitable and counterable. It was very evident in his last win, which was over a complete can and it was obviously evident against Borsch.
I like Chris Duncan and wanted to pick him here. I just think this is a bad matchup. Campbell will be the better striker and I think he finds that chin of Duncan and ends up putting him away. This is a very exciting fight. High level for DWCS