Erik's Tape Study Notes for UFC 281

Izzy Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira

Hey, y’all! Absolutely stacked card coming for us this weekend. Should be a ton of fun. My full-card video breakdown will drop on YouTube (Erik Bets Fights and/or NeverHedge Media) on Wednesday. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) anytime! Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the fights! I know I will. :)

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ISRAEL ADESANYA VS ALEX PEREIRA

I'll admit that the majority of my "tape study" for this fight consisted primarily of watching Dan Hardy's breakdowns of the two kickboxing bouts between these two. So rather than trying to go deep on this one, I'm just going to suggest that you do the same. 

Obviously, these two are both world-class kickboxers, but their approaches are very different. Izzy is more of a "finesse" striker. He relies on speed, movement, feints, and setting traps, while Pereira relies more heavily on his incredible power. Pereira has an absolutely lethal left hook, which he used to fight-ending effect against Sean Strickland his last time out. (That big left hook is also the punch that ended Izzy's night in their second kickboxing bout.) 

Izzy is the much more experienced and well-rounded MMA fighter of the two, but Pereira has showed some impressive growth in a short amount of time. Izzy would probably have a clear path to victory in the grappling realm if he chose to go that route, but I think ego will prevent him from doing so. After dropping two kickboxing bouts to Pereira, I think Izzy will want to get this one back in the striking phase. Overall, I think Izzy will use his footwork and head movement to largely avoid Pereira's power shots, and he'll mix up his kicks and punches, as well as his targets, to get the better of many of the striking exchanges. And though we've never really seen Izzy actively go for TDs in the past, the option to look for a trip in a clinch or bodylock position might be there for him, as well. I think Poatan's best path to victory here is to find a KO with that left hook or one of his signature flying knees, but if that doesn't happen, an Adesanya decision feels most likely to me. I think we see Izzy stick and move and stay safe rather than engaging in any kind of firefight with the brick-fisted Pereira. 

I've already seen the lines for this fight, and Izzy sits at -180 or 64%, with the comeback on Pereira at +155 or 39%. This feels about right to me. If you want to bet the Pereira side, I think you look to his KO prop, as I don't see him winning a five-round decision here. (I just looked it up, and Pereira's KO prop is only +200. Not much meat on that bone, when his ML sits at +155.) This is gonna be a stayaway for me, fellas. Just gonna sit back and enjoy it. 

CARLA ESPARZA (ORTH) VS WEILI ZHANG (ORTH)

Weili Zhang has faced only 5 TD attempts–2 of which were successful–in her 8-fight UFC career. This will be her first time fighting a truly takedown-minded opponent. Accordingly, I went into the tape on this fight with one big question on my mind: can Carla Esparza take Weili Zhang down and keep her down? If she can, she probably wins. If she can't, she probably loses. Even after watching the tape, I'm not sure I have a confident answer to that question, but here are my thoughts: 

Both of the times Zhang has been taken down were in the second Rose Namajunas fight. One was a clinch TD against the cage, and one was an explosive shot out in open space. I do think Carla is likely to find a TD or two here, but I also think Weili is quite live to take Carla down. Carla has a reputation as a suffocating wrestler, but her TD accuracy is only 35%, and her TDD is only 47%. Couple this info with Weili Zhang's strength and athleticism, and it begins to seem as though Carla may struggle. (Also, Carla's shots get slower, less explosive, and more telegraphed as we get deeper into the fight.) And in the standup, there's really no comparison. Weili is quicker, more technical, more powerful, more accurate, busier–she's got all the advantages there. It's hard to imagine Carla winning this fight unless she's able to not only get TDs but also keep Weili down and pile up lots and lots of control time, and I have doubts that she can do that. 

I lean toward thinking Weili's grit and power and athleticism shine through and win the day. Carla may survive all 25 minutes to lose a decision, but I lean toward thinking Weili will finish her with strikes at some point in the championship rounds. I'll line the fight Weili Zhang -240 or 70%. (Currently, Weili is at -360 or 78%. That does seem wide to me, but Weili should win this. With Carla sitting as high as +310, though, the question becomes "Does Carla Esparza have a better than 24% chance of winning this fight. And man, that's a tough one. I think she probably does. If this line keeps getting wider, I may have to take a dog shot on Carla here. )

DUSTIN POIRIER (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH) VS MICHAEL CHANDLER (ORTH)

This is a great fight. Both dangerous, high-level guys with well-rounded games. 

Dustin Poirier made his UFC debut way back in 2011 (following a few fights in the WEC) and has an impressive 20-6-1 UFC record, with most of those losses coming to greats in the sport like Charles Oliveira, Conor McGregor, and Khabib Nurmagomedov. If Poirier has a standout skill, it's his slick boxing, but he's quite capable of handling himself in the wrestling and grappling, as well. Many of his wins are by strikes, but he does have some sub wins to his name–especially earlier in his career. 

Michael Chandler made his UFC debut in 2021, with an impressive KO of Dan Hooker after an 18-5 run in Bellator. Chandler is a powerful athlete and a decorated high school and college wrestler who, like many wrestlers who enter the sport, has largely fallen in love with the power in his hands and doesn't seek to actively wrestle as frequently as he did earlier in his career. He possesses fight-ending power and has many early KOs on his resume, including first-round finishes of such notable names as Benson Henderson, Patricky Pitbull, Akihiro Gono, and David Rickels. 

In some ways, these two athletes bring similar skillsets to the table, but one difference that stands out is Poirier's superior technical striking. While Chandler tends to load up with single shots and trust in his big power, Poirier adopts a more classic boxing approach, sticking, moving, and setting up combos. He's quite capable of finding KOs, even against the elite fighters in the game, but he's more likely to do so by swarming with relentless punches until the ref steps in, like we saw in his finishes of Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje. 

Both men wrestle quite capably, and we may see a TD attempt or two here, but I expect this fight to play out more so on the feet. As always, Chandler will be aggressive and dangerous early, but I think Poirier has the skills and fight IQ to weather the storm and take over with his superior boxing later in the fight. Chandler has been finished in 4 of 7 career losses, and I think we may see a late finish for Poirier here, though a decision is also very much on the table, especially with only 3 rounds to work with. 

I've already seen the odds for this fight, and they are very much on the move. Poirier was in the -160/-170 range just yesterday, and he currently sits at -220 or 69%. Part of me feels like this is wide, but I don't see Michael Chandler winning a decision here, and Dustin Poirier has been finished by strikes only twice in a 35-fight career (42 fights if you count his amateur run.) Chandler can be had for +185, but if I were to bet him, I'd be looking at his KO prop, which sits at +400 on BetOnline and may drop at an even more favorable number on other books. I think I'm gonna stay off this fight at the current odds, but if I had run the tape on this one yesterday and found Poirier at -160, I'd be singing a different tune.)

FRANKIE EDGAR (ORTH) VS CHRIS GUTIERREZ

I feel like everyone is largely writing off the 41-year-old future Hall-of-Famer Frankie Edgar after dropping his last two fights by KO. However, when you get into the tape, it's clear that Frankie's game is largely still there. Has his chin started to go? Probably. Has he lost a bit of his speed and explosiveness? Sure. But he was arguably winning the Chito fight until he got caught. He was landing strikes, finding TDs, largely avoiding the big damage. The classic Frankie Edgar game is still there and is largely still effective. He uses constant lateral movement, mixes it up with punch combos, and finds the TDs when they're there. He did get blown out of the water in under 30 seconds by a Cory Sandhagen flying knee, but that could have happened to anyone. That said, though, it's never good to see a 41-year-old fighter finished by strikes twice in a row in the twilight of his career. It might not take much to put his lights out at this point. 

After dropping his UFC debut to a Raoni Barcelos rear-naked choke, Chris Gutierrez has somewhat quietly put together a 7-fight unbeaten streak in the UFC. Five of those wins were by decision, but he has shown finishing ability in stopping Danaa Batgerel with a spinning backfist and follow-up elbows, and ending Vince Morales's night with vicious leg kicks back in 2020. 

Even just a few years ago, I would favor Frankie Edgar in this fight, and probably pretty comfortably. But it's difficult to do so now, given his age and his recent KO finishes. Edgar's game is largely based on his constant lateral movement, and I think Gutierrez's signature calf kicks could pay dividends in slowing the former champion down. Edgar is the better pocket boxer of the two, but I worry about his durability getting into firefight moments with the younger, quicker Gutierrez. I do think a world exists where Frankie Edgar finds TDs and is able to grind his way to a decision here, but I'm not sure how likely that is. I lean toward Gutierrez outstriking Edgar to a decision or potentially even finding a KO. I feel Gutierrez probably wins this fight a good ⅔ of the time, so I'll line it Gutierrez -200 or 67%. (Currently, Gutierrez sits at -220 or 69%. His KO prop sits at +250, and his decision prop at +125, so not a whole lot to get excited about there, either. Probably gonna stay away from this one.)

DAN HOOKER (ORTH) VS CLAUDIO PUELLES (SOUTHPAW)

I've heard people say that Hooker's chin was shot at 145, but that didn't appear to be the case to me at all. He took a ton of huge shots from Arnold Allen in that fight. He was wobbled a couple times, but he recovered well and kept coming. He was stopped in the first round, but as far as durability, I thought it was an impressive performance. He never even went down. It was a standing TKO. 

Claudio Puelles has 3 kneebar wins in the UFC, and another from his stint on TUF. Incredible. That's just not something you see everyday. And the best part: he claims he doesn't even train the kneebar. He's currently on a five-fight win streak over increasingly higher-level competition, with his last outing producing a first-round kneebar over divisional stalwart and GEICO caveman lookalike, Clay Guida. Puelles is an excellent grappler once things get to the mat, but as DC is so fond of pointing out from the commentary booth, he doesn't have the greatest TDs. 

I know there's been a lot of talk about Dan Hooker being washed at this point, especially given that he's lost 4 of his last 5, but those 4 losses were to Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Islam Makhachev, and Arnold Allen. I think we can give the guy a pass for losing to the best fighters in the world. I admit he did look a bit slow and labored in the Arnold Allen fight, but he did cut to 145 there (and he's never been the quickest guy in the world anyway). 

Overall, I think this could be a good fight for Dan Hooker. I think he has good enough TDD to stuff Puelle's TDs, frustrating him and slowing him down, and on the feet, Hooker should have a marked edge. I'm honestly kind of expecting to find Puelles as the favorite here, given the recent narrative on the decline of Hooker, but I'm willing to favor him here. I think I'll line the fight Dan Hooker -150 or 60%. (I was wrong. Hooker is currently favored at -170 or 63%. That feels about right to me. Not sure what I'm gonna do with this fight. I feel like it would be reasonably safe to bet Hooker's ML and then hedge with a sprinkle on Puelles by sub if I get cold feet. Might do that.)

RENATO MOICANO (ORTH) VS BRAD RIDDELL (ORTH)

Pre-tape, I think this seems like a really fun matchup, and I think it's gonna be a tough call. We'll see if the tape agrees. 

I was there live for Moicano's last fight–an absolute barn-burner in which he went 25 grueling, hard-fought minutes with former UFC Lightweight Champion and future hall-of-famer Rafael Dos Anjos. One needs to look no further than that fight to see that Moicano is gritty, tough, and very skilled. And he took that fight on like 3-4 weeks' notice, too, if I remember correctly. He likes to come out aggressive early with bodykicks, 1-2s, and hooks/uppercuts to the body. He's also a slick grappler, with NINE rear-naked choke finishes on his record. And that's with 16 total wins. Homie is locking in an RNC in over half his wins. Very cool. A full 41% of the men who have stepped into the cage with Renato Moicano have found themselves locked up in a rear-naked choke. That's no fun for anyone, except, like….Moicano and his team and his family and the viewers. I guess it's actually pretty fun for everyone except his opponent. 

Moicano's UFC career has been somewhat plagued by inactivity, having fought only 13 times in 8 years with the promotion (averaging just over 1.5 fights per year). 

Riddell is a powerful little fireplug of a man best known for his striking. He puts out a little less volume than Moicano, but I think he hits harder. He throws everything with authority, picking his opportunities to land big counters rather than chipping away at an opponent with consistent volume. He's also quicker and more athletic than Moicano, and he seems to slow down less as the fight progresses. 

On paper, Riddell should be the better striker, and Moicano should be the better grappler, but I lean toward thinking Moicano's edge on the mat will be the more pronounced of the two, as his reach advantage, aggression, and output should look pretty good to the judges in the standup exchanges (though Riddell will likely be landing the bigger shots). And if they do go to the ground, I really like Moicano's scrambling, positional awareness, and top game. Overall, I think I have to favor Moicano, but only slightly. Tough to be confident in an outcome in this fight. I'll line it Moicano -125 or 55%. (Currently, Moicano is…exactly -125. Nailed that one. Hmm. Not sure what to do with this fight. I'm tempted to bet Moicano at that number, but I'm curious to see what the line will do.)

DOMINICK REYES (SOUTHPAW) VS RYAN SPANN (ORTH)

For some reason, Ryan Spann is one of those fighters who is stuck in the "this guy doesn't belong in the UFC" category in my brain. Sometimes that just happens, and I don't even really know why. I mean, it's not like the guy is a total scrub. If you count his DWCS appearance, he's 7-2 at the UFC level. Quite respectable. Heck, Dominick Reyes is only 6-3 (though he has fought the much better competition, of course). 

I'm gonna keep this breakdown short and sweet. Both guys are huge for the division and prefer to strike. Reyes is accustomed to having a size advantage in his fights, and he'll be up against a 1" height disadvantage and a 4.5" reach disadvantage. However, I don't know that it's gonna be a huge problem for him. Reyes is the busier and more accurate striker of the two. I think he also has the better chin. We may see Spann look to grapple, especially if he doesn't like how it's going on the feet, but I think Reyes can stuff his TDs and if he doesn't end up on the mat, I think he'll be able to scramble up. This fight could play out somewhat closely at times, but I like Reyes to be the sniper and land cleaner shots on the counter. I think Reyes finds a KO finish at some point. I'll line the fight Dominick Reyes -175 or 64%. (Currently, Reyes sits at -221 or 69%. That might be on the verge of seeming a little wide, but I think I'm gonna stay away from this one for now.)

ERIN BLANCHFIELD (ORTH) VS MOLLY MCCANN (ORTH/SWITCH)

With better than 60% control time over her UFC opponents across 3 fights, Erin Blanchfield has already earned a reputation as a wrestling and top-control monster. She's comfortable enough in the striking, and improving all the time, but she's also pretty hittable on the feet. Molly McCann is definitely the better and more powerful striker of the two, and her TDD isn't bad. If she can stuff the TDs and turn this into a striking battle, Blanchfield could be in trouble. 

As much as I hate to oversimplify a breakdown, I'm gonna do it anyway: I really think this fight comes down almost entirely to whether Blanchfield can take Molly down and keep her there. In her 3 UFC losses, Molly was taken down a total of 14 times. In her 6 UFC wins, she was taken down a total of once. At the UFC level, Blanchfield has landed ⅔ of her TD attempts and has averaged just shy of 4 TDs per 15 min. So on paper, all the signs point to a Blanchfield victory here, and I do think that's the most likely outcome. However, I expect Erin could struggle to find TDs at times, and Molly will land big punches in the standup exchanges. Things could get hairy, that's for sure. I will favor Blanchfield to win, and I'm expecting to find her as a pretty big favorite here, but I'll be taking a look at the Molly by KO/TKO prop when it drops. I'll line the fight Erin Blanchfield -240 or 70%. (Currently, Blanchfield sits at -425 or 80%, with Molly at +355 or 22%. Yeah, with her ML sitting that high, I'm almost certainly be taking a shot at Molly's KO prop when it drops. She hits hard, and Erin can be pretty hittable.) (UPDATE: Molly by KO dropped at +650 on BetOnline. I had to take a small poke at that.)

ANDRE PETROSKI (SOUTHPAW) VS WELLINGTON TURMAN (ORTH)

The first thing that stands out about Andre Petroski is his athleticism and physicality. He's still a very raw fighter, but his strength and power are enough to overcome more skilled opponents at times. On the feet, he swings heavy single punches, rarely concerning himself with jabs or combos, preferring instead to load up big overhands that tend to tire him and slow him down early. He can be an explosive TD artist, and his top game really shines against less-athletic opposition, as Andre is able to stay one step ahead on the mat, outscrambling his opponent and beating him to the next position. He does tend to slow down and start breathing heavy even late in the first round, but he's able to fight pretty effectively through exhaustion. He's a big fan of the front-headlock series and will look for D'arces, guillotines, and anacondas every chance he gets. (His last MMA win was an anaconda over Nick Maximov, and he also finished Eryk Anders by anaconda in a grappling event just a couple months ago.) He also throws heavy GNP from top. 

Wellington Turman, though clearly talented, has been a bit of a disappointment, going 3-3 in the UFC beginning with a split-decision loss to Karl Roberson back in 2019. Now riding a two-fight win streak (including a split-decision win over Sam Alvey, which doesn't look great on paper), Turman will look to make it three against Andre Petroski this Saturday. 

Turman is comfortable though not particularly dangerous on the feet, preferring to ply his trade in the grappling phase, where he can put his BJJ black belt to work. He does show some slick grappling skills–look no further than his lightning-fast armbar finish of Misha Cirkunov in his last Octagon outing–but he seems to lack in physicality a bit, allowing his opponents to outmuscle him in clinching and grappling positions. This, of course, doesn't bode well in a fight against a physical powerhouse like Petroski. Petroski will be the bigger puncher here and will also likely control much of the grappling with his physicality and top control. However, he can be susceptible to making mistakes as he tires and gets sloppy, and Turman is exactly the kind of slick grappler who can see and take advantage of those mistakes. I did see the line for this fight on Twitter a while back. I don't remember what it was exactly, but I believe Petroski was a pretty big favorite. I do favor Petroski here, but I'm struggling to decide how much exactly. I guess I'll line the fight Petroski -190 or 65%, though I'm not particularly confident in that read. (Currently, Petroski sits at -200 or 66%. I think I'm gonna pass on this one pre-flop and treat it as a possible live-betting spot, as Petroski will likely come out like a bat out of hell and dominate early, but if the fight goes long, we could see him slow down, possibly allowing Turman to take over.)

KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ (ORTH) VS SILVANA GOMEZ JUAREZ (ORTH)

KK (yeah, I'm not gonna type that name out, haha) is 5-7 in the UFC, having snapped a UFC record (for women) five-fight losing streak with a submission win over Felice Herrig her last time out. 

We saw in Silvana Gomez-Juarez's UFC debut vs Loopy Godinez that there is a path to victory over her in the wrestling and grappling. Loopy isn't your average wrestler at women's strawweight, but she was able to completely dominate SGJ on the mat from bell to bell. KK does have a handful of submission wins on her lengthy resume, but she butters her bread as a striker, which is where SGJ stands out as incredibly dangerous among the planet's 115-lb women. We don't often see clean KOs at strawweight, but Gomez-Juarez throws her right hand with precision, authority, and fight-ending power. She uses slick footwork to move around the cage and create angles. 

It would likely be in KK's best interest to look to grapple here as her clearest path to victory, but it's difficult to trust her to do that, even following her submission win over Felice Herrig back in June. I think it's more likely that we see Karolina look to strike with Gomez-Juarez and eventually get popped with that big power. Having been in there with many of the best in the world, though, we mustn't overlook KK's veteran savvy–and she did look to have a newfound confidence and determination in the Felice Herrig fight. I'm not looking past KK here, and I doubt Gomez-Juarez is, either. But I'm still gonna pick her to win, likely by KO. I'll line the fight Silvana Gomez-Juarez -170 or 63%. (Currently, Gomez-Juarez sits at -105. Almost a coinflip. Well, shit. Now I have to figure out if I'm confident enough to put my money where my mouth is. I was expecting to find SGJ as a pretty big favorite here. Yeah, I'm going for it. I'm betting her at -105. I'll be interested to see her KO prop when it drops, too.) 

MIKE TRIZANO (ORTH) VS SEUNG WOO CHOI (ORTH)

First things first, not to be rude, but I have pretty much zero interest in this fight. These guys are both fighters that I have to look up every time I hear mention of them, because I can't even remember who they are. ANYWAY.

Trizano has a decently technical muay thai style on the feet, but homie does NOT like to throw punches. He has said that he's aware that low volume is a problem for him and he's working on that, so we shall see. He seems to wait for his opponent to throw and wait for his opportunities to counter, but if his opponent is faster than him, those opportunities don't arise, and he ends up just kinda stalking forward but throwing no strikes. He obviously has good power when he does throw, as evidenced by the very short left hook that he rocked Lucas Almeida with late in round 1. Looked like it was only about a 10-inch punch, but it had some mustard on it; that's for sure. 

Trizano shows a troubling tendency to just kinda settle into a pace and stick with it, even if it's not working for him. Even if he's getting outvolumed and outstruck, he'll just keep the same even pace and let a fight slip away from, without showing any urgency. That's a quality I really dislike in a fighter, especially when it comes to betting. 

Although Choi has just 1" of height in this fight, he has 3.5" of reach. He's a fighter with notably long arms. Like, long enough that it's visually apparent when he's fighting. Since Trizano is fond of pushing forward but not throwing much, I think Choi could have great success keeping Trizano at bay with that long, snappy jab, if only he were more willing to throw it. Like Trizano, Choi can be frustratingly low-volume, preferring to wait for openings to throw one big counter rather than looking to touch up his opponent with consistent striking volume. 

Overall, this feels like a bit of a mirror match stylistically, with both guys falling more-or-less into the "low-volume power strikers who prefer to counter" camp. Tough one to call. I think Choi could find the upper hand if he looked to keep Trizano on the end of his long, snappy jab, but I don't trust that he will. Both guys have some grappling in their back pockets, but neither tends to use it actively. I'm not sure who to favor in this fight. I'm throwing in the towel. Flip a coin. I'd be willing to consider taking either guy at decent plus-money. (Currently, Choi sits at -162, with the comeback on Trizano at +142. Hmm. Probably gonna be a pass for me unless the line moves a bunch. I'll have to take a look at props for this one and see if anything looks enticing.)

OTTMAN AZAITAR (ORTH) VS MATT FREVOLA

Azaitar is undefeated, with 13 pro wins in his pocket, 12 of which came by way of finish. Seven of those 12 were first-round KOs. Azaitar is compact and explosive, a tightly-wound ball of kinetic energy just looking to unleash on his opponent from the moment the bell rings. He uses feints and footwork well on the feet to set up his strikes, and throws everything with fight-ending power but manages to remain reasonably technical while doing so. 

Azaitar possesses the kind of power where even a blocked punch is dangerous. He can hurt you even when landing on your arms. However, we don't know much about Azaitar's TDD at the UFC level–something Matt Frevola will no doubt look to test. 

Frevola sports a 9-3-1 pro record, preceded by 8 straight wins as an amateur. At the UFC level, he sits at 4-3-1 (counting his 2017 Contender Series win, an arm-triangle submission over Bellator veteran, Luke Flores). 

Frevola is a well-rounded fighter who's pretty comfortable doing it all. However, a look through his record shows that he tends to win fights when he takes his opponents down. With the exception of his last fight, an absolute slobberknocker vs. Genaro Valdez, Frevola has taken down every opponent he has beaten and has lost when he wasn't able to get takedowns. I think Frevola's smartest path against Azaitar is to wrestle, but I don't trust him to do that–especially with that vicious and exciting round-one KO of Valdez still fresh on his mind. Will he be riding that high and come in looking to do something similar to Azaitar? And if so, will that plan spell disaster? I think it will. Frevola is a passable slugger in his own right, but it's hard not to favor Azaitar in a toe-to-toe throwdown against almost anyone. 

This feels like a live-betting spot to me, as I'm not confident enough in a read here to do much pre-flop, but I'll favor Ottman Azaitar to continue his streak of early KOs–especially given that Frevola has been KO'ed early in 2 of his 3 losses. I'll go Azaitar -150 or 60%, though it's hard to be super confident in that with how wild and unpredictable this fight could look. (Currently, the fight is pretty much lined as a coinflip. One spot I do like is the under 2.5 at -170. Gonna take a shot on that and then have a look at Azaitar's KO prop when it drops.) (UPDATE: I did sprinkle Azaitar by round-1 KO at +350.)

JULIO ARCE (SOUTHPAW) VS MONTEL JACKSON (SOUTHPAW)

This should be a fun fight. If you count DWCS, Arce is 6-3 at the UFC level. He has solid boxing skills, but he tends to start slow and make his reads in rd 1 and then pick up the activity later in the fight. He puts out a lot of volume, averaging more than 12 SS/M, but he lands at only 37%. He's been taken down only once on 18 attempts at the UFC level, for an impressive 94% TDD. 

Montel Jackson is 6-2 at the UFC level. He's a skilled wrestler who was once an Olympic hopeful but had to give up that dream to take care of his grandparents (or that's what wikipedia tells me, anyway). He clearly has a lot of natural athleticism, with good speed and power on his strikes and in his movement. He averages more than 4 TDs per 15 min and completes an impressive 78% of his TD attempts. Jackson also has 3" of height and 5.5" of reach in this fight. It's easy to see a lot of advantages in Montel Jackson's corner here, as he has the size and reach to handle himself on the feet, even against the higher-volume and arguably more skilled boxer, and he has the wrestling upside to put the fight on the mat if it's not going his way on the feet. Jackson has taken down all but 2 of his UFC opponents, and those 2 were only because he finished them in under 2 minutes without needing to land a TD. His 2 UFC losses were to Brett Johns and Ricky Simon, who were able to land 8 and 7 TDs on Jackson respectively. So there seems to be a clear pattern that Jackson beats fighters he can outwrestle and loses to fighters he can't. He also has excellent power, landing 1.65 knockdowns per 15 mins. (To be fair, that stat is skewed heavily by the JP Buys fight, as I think he knocked Buys down like 4 times in that fight.) 

It's hard not to lean Jackson here, but how confidently? That's the question. I'll line the fight Montel Jackson -190 or 65%, as I think he'll have the ability to largely dictate where the fight takes place and ensure that he's fighting where he feels he has an edge. (Currently, Jackson is at -200 or 66%. Yeah, that seems about right. I might consider throwing him in a parlay. May do it soon, as I could see that line swelling a little bit more.)

CARLOS ULBERG (ORTH) VS NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU 

In addition to being almost impossibly handsome, Carlos Ulberg is an excellent kickboxer who seems to be putting it all together in the UFC. 

In his last outing vs. Tafon Nchukwi, Ulberg dropped Tagon with a stiff jab in round 1 and then finished up with a volley of accurate hooks and uppercuts that put the overmatched Nchukwi out early. 

Negumereanu is a gritty dog of a fighter who has arguably overachieved with 4 wins in 5 UFC fights. I'm gonna keep this simple: it's hard not to see Negumereanu as in over his head here. He has proven an ability to repeatedly defy expectations and win fights he probably shouldn't win, but I think that probably ends here. If Negu can get his wrestling going and work on the mat, he might stand a chance, but I lean toward thinking Ulberg will stuff the TDs and land the cleaner shots. Against most fighters, I'd say Ulberg is live for the finish, but Negu is ridiculously durable, so I'm not so sure. And the more I think about this fight, the more I see the possibility of Negu making it dirty and ugly and grinding Ulberg against the fence and on the mat. In a clean, technical striking contest, it's Ulberg all day, but will he be able to handle a gritty, ugly fight with a guy like Nic Negumereanu? Man. I don't know. 

I think I have to line this fight pretty closely, as it's difficult to be confident in how it might play out. I'm gonna favor Ulberg slightly, let's say Ulberg -115 or 53%. (Currently, Ulberg sits at…oh, wow, -117. Kinda nailed that one. Gonna be a stayaway for me as far as picking a side. (UPDATE: I did bet the over 1.5 at -155. I think we see this fight go late.)

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