Erik's Tape Study Notes for UFC Vegas 64

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos

Hey, NeverHedge Nation! (Was that lame? Yeah. Kinda was.) Anyway. Happy Halloween! I’m back from my honeymoon and right back into the grind. Just finished my tape study for UFC Vegas 64. Here are my notes, and I have a favor to ask of you: all of us at NeverHedge would appreciate it immensely if you’d stop and take a moment to share this article on your social media channels. We’re always looking to grow the reach of NeverHedge, and no better way to do that than to get this FREE content out there to the masses. I should have my full-card breakdown out on YouTube—on both NeverHedge Media and Erik Bets Fights—on Wednesday. I’ll also be breaking down the card with The Couch Warrior (@CouchWarriorPod) on his YouTube channel on Tuesday night, so check that out too if you can! Thanks for reading!

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MARINA RODRIGUEZ (ORTH) VS AMANDA LEMOS (ORTH)

Our main event should be a fun striking battle between two surging strawweight contenders in Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. 

Marina is 7-1 with 2 draws in the UFC, while Lemos sits at 6-2 against UFC competition. Both women can grapple, but Lemos has taken down only 3 of her 8 UFC opponents, and Rodriguez has taken down only 2 of 10 UFC opponents. Every reason to believe this is essentially going to be a muay thai fight. 

Marina has a bit of a size advantage, and she also throws more, lands more, and defends strikes more efficiently. She'll likely be at a speed disadvantage here, but that's nothing she hasn't overcome before. She also seems to have better cardio. 

Lemos is explosive and dangerous. She's faster than Marina and I think she hits harder. She'll be dangerous early, but I think her output will slow as the fight progresses and Marina will slowly take over. I might be oversimplifying a little, but I see Marina Rodriguez as owning most of the advantages in this fight, and I'm willing to favor her quite a bit. I'll say Marina Rodriguez -170 or 63%. (Currently, Marina sits at -205 or 67%. I don't love that number, but in true degen style, I'd probably parlay her at that number anyway. Also, this is potentially a good live-betting spot, as Lemos could have success early, allowing for a better number on Marina.)

NEIL MAGNY (ORTH/SWITCH) VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ (SOUTHPAW)

Neil Magny is a fighter who needs no introduction at this point. He appeared on TUF way back in 2012, and if you count his fights in the TUF house, I believe he's like 22-9 in UFC competition. Not too shabby. He can't get past the very elite fighters of the division, but he's excellent at separating the wheat from the chaff. If you can get past Neil Magny, you're someone who's gonna stick around in the UFC for a while at the very least. He's coming off a loss to Shavkat, but hard to hold that against him. Magny is well-rounded and tough and extremely long for the division. He's also won 16 (SIXTEEN!) fights by decision at the UFC level, which I'm almost certain is a record. So he doesn't bring a ton of power or finishing ability, but he's a savvy veteran with solid grappling and decent striking, and to put it simply, the man just knows how to win fights. He's also a guy who can push a hellish pace for 15 minutes and use his cardio as a weapon. He uses his length well, throwing jabs from outside, evading punches, and returning fire. 

Daniel "D-Rod" Rodriguez has somewhat quietly amassed a 7-1 UFC record since tapping Tim Means to a guillotine in his UFC debut back in February 2020. He's a skilled striker with a nice stiff jab and power in both hands. If there's a knock I can make on him as a striker, it's that he tends to settle into throwing one strike at a time rather than chaining together combos. Rodriguez should be the better striker on paper, but I expect the standup exchanges could play out pretty closely, unless/until D-Rog is able to land something that hurts Magny and puts some fear and doubt in him–and I think that's the key for Rodriguez in this fight. Use his power to get Magny's attention and keep him from coming forward. Magny should have the upperhand on the mat, but D-Rod has pretty good TDD and it's a crapshoot whether Magny will look to take it there, anyway. If Magny does look to clinch and grapple and try to control D-Rod, I think it's his fight to lose, and if it plays out in the striking realm, I might favor D-Rod slightly, but it could be close and competitive. 

This fight feels like a coin flip to me. I guess I'd line it -110 each, but I'm kinda expecting to find D-Rod as a slight favorite. (Currently, Magny is slightly favored at -120, with D-Rod at even money. This one's gonna be a stayaway for me, although I'll be interested to see where Magny by decision is lined. With 16 decision wins at the UFC level, might as well lean into the trend, right?) (UPDATE: Magny by decision dropped at +120. Not enough meat on that bone for me, I'm afraid.)

JOSH PARISIAN (ORTH) VS CHASE SHERMAN (ORTH)

Chase Sherman knocked out Jared Vanderaa in the third round. Have you ever seen Jared Vanderaa and Josh Parisian in the same room? No. Don't bet on this fight unless, of course, you're sprinkling Chase Sherman by rd-3 KO. Ya know, "for the culture," as the kids say.

TAGIR ULANBEKOV (ORTH) VS NATE MANESS (SWITCH)

Tagir averages 3.67 TDs per 15 min and shows an impressive 46% control time over his opponents. He strikes capably, though he can get a bit wild at times and he does tend to get hit cleanly quite a bit (though he takes it well). Maness does show 77% TDD, but he's spent 53% of his UFC fight time being controlled by his opponent, which doesn't bode well against Tagir. Against Umar, Maness spent a lot of time working from his back and even closing his guard, in a fight where it should have been clear that scrambling back to his feet was of the utmost importance. Maness almost seemed to accept the TDs from Umar, as well. Not to take anything away from Umar's TD ability–maybe Maness did try to defend and just couldn't–but it appeared to me that he almost just accepted his fate and fell to his back when Umar shot–especially with the first TD in round 1. 

On the feet, Maness will likely have an advantage, but he tends to hang back and look to counter, rather than coming forward and applying the kind of chaotic pressure that seems to work well against Tagir (as evidenced by the Tim Elliott fight). In the Tony Gravely fight, we see Gravely clinch with Maness and look for TDs against the cage with little success. Maness is big and seems strong in the clinch. The key to taking him down is timing a level change in open space, which Tagir does well. 

Though Maness is tough and scrappy and you can't count him out, I think this is a good stylistic matchup for Tagir, and I favor him pretty comfortably here. Tagir at -200 or 67% feels about right to me. (Currently, Tagir can be had for -175 or 63%. Not a huge edge there, but I like it, and I think this line might swell further throughout the week. I'm gonna take a shot on that.)

MARK MADSEN (ORTH) VS GRANT DAWSON (ORTH)

This is a sneaky good fight and might actually be one of the best matchups on the card. Mark O. Madsen is a decorated Greco-Roman wrestler who started wrestling at age six and won silver at the 2016 Olympics in Rio. He was already 2-0 as an MMA fighter at the time, and after the 2016 games, he turned his attention fully to fighting, going 8-0 as a pro before getting the UFC call to face Danilo Belluardo in 2019. He remains undefeated, with a 4-0 UFC record and a 12-0 MMA record overall. Madsen has developed a competent striking game, with very hard leg kicks and decent boxing with good natural power. As we so often see with world-class wrestlers in MMA (for whatever reason), he seems to have transitioned away from relying on his wrestling, having attempted only 4 total takedowns combined in his last 2 fights, both of which went the full 15 minutes. 

Grant Dawson is known mostly for his wrestling and grappling, but he's been making strides with his striking as well. He averages almost 4 TDs per fight and shows an impressive 54% control time over his opponents, and that's at a pretty good sample size of 8 UFC fights and one DWCS fight. He scrambles to the back very well and is excellent at holding that position and banking control time there. He's undefeated at the UFC level, with 7 wins and 1 draw. Four of those wins came by way of RNC, so it's safe to call Dawson a backtake and back control specialist. 

This is an interesting matchup, and I think it's really tough to call. On the feet, Madsen puts out more volume, hits harder, and shows better striking defense. It's reasonable to expect either fighter to look for TDs here, but which will prevail: the top control of Madsen or the scrambling backtakes of Dawson? I don't know. Dawson is the bigger guy and is 10 years younger, which also can't be ignored. It's difficult to know much about Madsen's TDD, as he has faced only two total TD attempts in the UFC, one of which was successful (vs. Vinc Pichel). Dawson may be able to get TDs himself, and if Madsen does take Dawson down, I lean toward thinking he won't be able to hold him down for long, and Dawson will have the better positional grappling. Wrestlers do NOT like having their back taken. Not a super confident pick, but I think I gotta go with Dawson as the guy who has the more well-rounded game and more advantages in his corner. 

I'll line the fight Grant Dawson -185 or 65%. (Currently, Dawson sits at -225 or 69%. Wow. That does seem wide to me, but I guess it makes sense. The more I think about it, the more I have trouble seeing how Madsen wins this fight. It's gonna be a stayaway for me on the moneyline, but I'll be interested in Dawson's decision prop, as I doubt he gets a finish here.) (UPDATE: Dawson by decision sits at only +115. The books were pretty sharp on some of these decision props this week.)

DARRICK MINNER (SWITCH) VS SHAYILAN NUERDANBIEKE (ORTH)

Shayilan "Wolverine" Nuerdanbieke (I spelled that without looking, I swear) is 2-1 in the UFC but sits at an overall professional record of 37-10. At only 28 years old, homie has almost 50 pro fights under his belt, largely on the Chinese regional scene. (Actually, if you include "custom rules bouts"--whatever those are exactly–he's already broken the 50-fight threshold.) He's a bricked-up athlete who throws powerful strikes on the feet that can do some damage if they land, but where he truly butters his bread is the wrestling. He shows only 32% TD accuracy, but with 47% control time against his opponents, it's clear that he's pretty good at maintaining control once he gets an opponent to the mat. In his last outing, a decision win over the scrappy TJ Brown, Shayilan showcased an ability to maintain a solid pace over 15 minutes, even in a grueling and wrestling-heavy fight. 

Darrick Minner is a dangerous submission grappler who excels at locking on fight-ending subs early, as evidenced by his 20 (TWENTY!) first-round submission wins. And a few notable names have fallen victim to those first-round subs, too, including TJ Laramie, Terrance McKinney, and Clay Collard. The catch is that if he doesn't find that early sub, he tends to gas and fall apart. A 2021 decision win over Charles Rosa provided some hope that Minner may have turned a corner, but he's dropped two fights since, including a decision loss to Ryan Hall. You don't wanna be out there losing decisions to Ryan Hall. 

Minner's striking game is rudimentary but effective. He moves well on the feet and throws hard hooks to close distance, where he can go to work with a surprisingly effective takedown game. Overall, this is a tough fight to call. Shayilan has been subbed in 5 of his 10 career losses, and Minner is live to lock on an early sub against anyone–particularly a guillotine against a wrestler like Shayilan. But if Minner can't get the early finish, I think we see Shayilan tire Minner out with his relentless wrestling attack, grinding his way to a decision or late TKO stoppage via GNP. 

I'm really struggling to line this fight, as it seems close, but I guess I'll lean toward thinking that Minner failing to secure an early sub is somewhat more likely, so I'll make Shayilan a tiny favorite, say -125 or 55%, though I won't be surprised if I'm far off the real line. (Currently, Shayilan sits at -200 or 67%, with Minner at +170 or 37%. Not interested in touching those moneylines, but I'll likely take a stab at Minner's sub prop when it drops as, in my opinion, his sub prop is basically his moneyline in this fight.) (UPDATE: Minner by rd-1 sub dropped at +600. I had put a little on that.)

MIRANDA MAVERICK (SOUTHPAW) VS SHANNA YOUNG

This is actually a rematch of a 2019 fight from the Invicta Phoenix Series, which was a one-night tournament of one-round fights. On that night, Miranda Maverick won a decision over Victoria Leonardo, then submitted Shanna Young by RNC, then submitted Deanna Bennett with an RNC in the 3rd rd of the main event, which was either 3 rds or 5 rds–not sure which. Miranda Maverick made her UFC debut in early 2020, coming off some impressive wins in Invicta, and has gone 3-2 in the promotion since (though she should probably be 4-1, having dropped a very contentious decision to Maycee Barber). Her loss to Erin Blanchfield was somewhat telling, with Maverick being taken down 6 times on 7 attempts and controlled for 12 minutes of a 15-minute fight, but to be fair, Blanchfield appears to be a bit of a beast, especially in the wrestling department. Maverick looked excellent against Sabina Mazo her last time out, using constant movement on the feet, cutting angles, and mixing up her strikes to keep Mazo guessing before flooring her with well-timed takedowns. In that fight, Maverick feinted well, evaded punches well, and constantly gave Mazo something to think about and react to, so she could never quite get her own game going. Impressive stuff. 

Shanna Young is one of those fighters where my brain decided early on that she was no good, and I've carried that bias with me, so I'm not sure how effectively I'm able to truly gauge her skillset. (To give you an idea of how lowly I rate Shanna Young, not only did I BET on Gina Mazany against her, but Mazany was my most confident pick on the whole card. Yeah. Not real proud of that one.) Young is a reasonably well-rounded fighter who seems to fall comfortably in the "decent skills everywhere, but lacking standout skills anywhere" pile. I've already said more than I intended to about this fight, so I'll just leave it at this: Maverick handled Young easily in their first fight back in 2019, and while they've likely both improved, I think Maverick has improved more, and I see no reason to believe she won't handle Young again. 

If I remember correctly, Maverick was like -500 when this fight was booked (and subsequently canceled) back in August, and it'll probably be in that range again. (Yup, Maverick currently sits at -500, with Young at +385. I'm not touching any of that. My advice is to stay far away, unless any of the props look decent. Last time, Maverick by sub and Maverick ITD sat at +160 and +120 respectively, so not great, but maybe playable.) (UPDATE: Maverick ITD dropped at +140. I put a unit on that.)

MARIO BAUTISTA (ORTH) VS BENITO LOPEZ

Full disclosure: this is the last fight I'm taping, I'm tired, and I need to get this writeup out so I can take my stepkids out trick-or-treating. So I'm gonna cut to the chase. 

Mario Bautista is really good. He's well-rounded, aggressive, and confident. He pushes a pace and has the cardio to keep it up. He's tough and technical. 

Benito Lopez is also aggressive, but he's more of a wildman. He's not as technical as Bautista, and he's more prone to making mistakes. He also hasn't fought in 3 years, which is concerning. They both put out pretty good volume, and I could see it potentially being competitive on the feet (though I think Bautista is faster and hits harder).  I do think Bautista would have a clear advantage in the grappling if he looked to take it there. I don't love Bautista's price tag at like -285, but he should win this. I might consider parlaying him, even at that hefty price.

JINH YU FREY (SOUTHPAW) VS POLIANA VIANA (ORTH/SWITCH)

Jinh Yu Frey has a nice technical striking game; however, she can be somewhat low-volume and she lands only 44% of her attempted strikes, which isn't great. Also, she turned 37 years old back in May, which is getting up there for the lower weight classes. She shows excellent TDD at 89% and has spent only 15% of her UFC cage time on the receiving end of control positions. 

Polyana Viana has a solid submission game but is one of those fighters who chooses not to play to her strengths. She's more than happy to spend 15 minutes on the feet with a better striker, largely just circling and throwing kicks. She will pull guard at times, but unless it leads to a sub finish, the optics on a guard pull are never great. Viana is a little too willing to work off her back, and Frey has only been subbed once in 21 total fights. I don't have much else to say about this fight, so I'm not going to pretend I do. Viana lost a decision to Hannah Cifers, so I'm gonna favor Jihn Yu Frey here. (I'm kinda joking, but…ya know…kinda not.) Let's go Jihn Yu Frey -135 or 57%. (Currently, it's a coinflip at -110 a piece. No interest in betting this fight. Good luck if you do.)

JOHNNY MUNOZ JR VS LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN (ORTH)

The first thing that stands out to me on paper with Liudvik Sholinian is his striking stats. Typically, we like to see a fighter's striking offense percentage and striking defense percentage add up to around 100 or better; Sholinian's add up to 60. Off the top of my head, I don't recall seeing a number that low before. He sits at 20% striking offense and 40% striking defense. This is a tiny sample size, given he's only fought in the UFC once, but still. Overall, I don't feel like I have a strong read on Sholinian. He appears to have pretty decent skills in all facets of MMA, but higher-level opponents have found ways to pretty consistently shut down his game. Even against Mitch Raposo, whom he beat by decision on TUF, he spent the first round chasing and not landing much due to Raposo's constant lateral movement. It was when he began to implement his wrestling in rounds 2 and 3 that he found success. 

With 9 submission wins on his MMA resume (including both pro and amateur), Munoz is best known as a dangerous submission grappler. However, he struggles to get opponents to the mat, showing only 20% TD accuracy across his three UFC bouts. I think this fight plays out pretty closely in the standup realm, and I suspect we'll see a lot of clinching and cage-pushing as each fighter looks to establish top control. And frankly, I don't feel like I know what that's gonna look like. This feels like a close fight to me. I've been sitting here watching tape on both fighters, and I don't feel like a clear read is coming to me, so I'm throwing in the towel. 

I think I lean Munoz slightly, as he seems to show a more consistent ability to put it all together into a complete MMA performance, but Sholinian's a solid wrestler, and if he can control where the fight takes place, he could squeak out a win. I'm gonna go with Munoz ever so slightly, let's say -125 or 55%, though I won't be surprised if the line is way off that. (Currently, Munoz sits at -190 or 65%, with Sholinian at +165 or 37%. I don't really trust my read here enough to take the shot on Sholinian, but if he gets to like +190 or so, I might have to.) 

JAKE HADLEY (SOUTHPAW) VS CARLOS CANDELARIO (SOUTHPAW)

Carlos Candelario's last two fights were decision losses to Victor Altamirano and Tatsuo Taira, but he didn't look bad in either of them. Taira won their fight pretty clearly, but Candelario did have his moments, showing an impressive ability to defend sub attempts from the venomous grappler, even managing to reverse position several times and put Taira on his back. Candelario has pretty fast hands and throws reasonably straight punches. What stands out to me most is his ability to shoot very fast and well-timed takedowns without telegraphing them. He's able to see an opening and change levels very quickly, often getting under an opponent's hips before they have time to respond. He also finishes his TDs pretty well and, if his initial attempt fails, he transitions well between attempts, chaining them together relentlessly until he gets what he wants. Overall, Candelario is pretty well-rounded and comfortable everywhere. He has shown a tendency to slow a little late in a fight, but he also fights well through exhaustion. 

Jake Hadley came into the UFC with quite a bit of hype on his name, as a dangerous grappler with myriad submission finishes on his record, including a couple of fancy-shmancy Gogoplatas. He closed as a -205 favorite over Allen Nascimento in his UFC debut, which he lost by decision. That performance did show some holes in his game, but I think taking a loss in that fight will likely serve him well, as a 26-year-old with plenty of time to improve. In that fight, Hadley was able to show off his incredible flexibility and his dangerous guard game, but Nascimento proved to be the better wrestler and positional grappler, spending big swaths of time controlling Hadley on the mat. Hadley showed a tendency to push forward aggressively with strikes, crowding Nascimento on the cage, but Nascimento was able to consistently exploit Hadley's aggressive forward movement by timing takedowns and getting Hadley to the mat in open space, where he was able to largely control him and land GNP. Hadley shows a little too much willingness to accept bottom, which is understandable, given his ability to submit lower-level opponents in the past; hopefully he learned from the Nascimento loss that accepting disadvantageous positions against top-shelf competition can too often lead to decision losses. Hadley was able to parlay a standing guillotine attempt into some top control time in round 3, but he lost the position while trying to take the back. 

I think Hadley is the better prospect of the two with the higher ceiling, but that's not what matters here: what matters is determining who is the better fighter at this point in their respective careers, and well…I think I'm willing to lean Hadley there, too. Candelario has shown a susceptibility to takedowns and, while Hadley doesn't always look to actively push the wrestling, I think he could do so with great success here. On the feet, it could be close, but I don't expect either guy to be happy striking for long. If Candelario looks to use his wrestling and Hadley willingly settles in on his back, we could see Candelario grind his way to a decision, but I lean toward thinking Hadley will have learned from the Nascimento fight, his team will have dissected the tape on Candelario, and we'll see Hadley look to get the fight to the ground on his own terms, where he can take top position and frustrate Candelario with top control and GNP. I expect we'll see Hadley spend some time in back control in this fight, and while a decision is probably most likely, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get under the chin and find a tap late in the fight. I'll line the fight Hadley -165 or 62%. (Currently, Hadley sits at -275 or 73%. That feels very wide to me. I see this fight potentially playing out pretty closely, but am I confident enough in that read to take a shot on Carlos Candelario at +235 or 29%? Not sure. Definitely gonna keep an eye on that line, and if it gets much wider, a dog shot might be in order.)

RAMONA PASCUAL (SOUTHPAW) VS TAMIRES VIDAL (ORTH)

If you've been following me for a while, you already know Ramona Pascual is my girl. I am a card-carrying Ramona Pascual simp, completely incapable of capping her fights in an unbiased fashion, as evidenced by the fact that I've bet on her as an underdog in both of her UFC fights so far, and well…we know how those turned out. 

Ramona is big and strong and does have some solid skills, but I think she got to the Octagon a little too early. She was 6-2 when she made her UFC debut, and those 8 pre-UFC opponents had a combined record of 10-9. Half of the fighters she beat–a full 3 of 6–were making their MMA debuts. She can strike a little bit, she can wrestle a little bit, she can grapple a little bit…but she seems to struggle with pulling the trigger and with putting it all together. I believe she's coming up on about 2 years of working with John Wood at Syndicate MMA and, while the improvements are there, I think she would have been better served spending a couple more years on the regional circuit rather than trying to figure out her game against UFC-level competition. She did have some moments of potent offense against Joselyne Edwards in her last outing, but they were few and far between. That fight was only 4 months ago, so not a ton of time to improve, but hopefully she took some lessons from that fight that she could incorporate into her game. 

Brazil's Tamires Vidal will be making her UFC debut with a record of 6-1. Most of her wins are also over low-level, inexperienced competition, but she does show wins over recent UFC debutante Ailin Perez and PFL standout Martina Jindrova. In her most recent outing, she tapped Queila Braga with a heelhook in an LFA bout. Vidal's fight with Ailin Perez is one of the strangest "pro" fights I've ever seen, as it takes place in an Octagon that looks like it's about 15 feet across, and the flooring is just a bunch of those snap-together puzzle-piece mats. Oh, and it's not even in any kind of arena. It appears to be set up in a gym, with like 5 dudes just sitting in folding chairs, watching. It's super weird. But anyway, Vidal gets consistently outwrestled and outgrappled in that fight and seems content to play off her back on bottom, fishing hopelessly for low-percentage leglocks. 

In sum, I don't really see anything that tells me Vidal belongs at the UFC level–not yet, anyway. Hard to be at all confident in a read on this fight, but Ramona is bigger, more experienced, comes from the better camp, and appears to have the more well-rounded skills. I think Vidal's only paths to victory here are to somehow land one of her big, wild, looping hooks or manage to consistently take Ramona down and control her, and I don't think either of those outcomes is very likely. I like Ramona here, maybe to the tune of -150 (60%) or so. (Currently, Ramona sits at +140 or 41%. That seems off to me, but I'm going to choose to acknowledge my biases, acknowledge that my reads here aren't particularly confident, and just stay away. I've already fallen into the trap of betting Ramona as an underdog twice before, and I'm gonna try–TRY–not to do it again.)

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That’s it for this week. As always, thanks for reading! I really do appreciate it. I put a lot of time and effort into researching these fights and putting out content, both written and video, and it’s nice to know at least a few people are paying attention. :)

Please find me on YouTube (Erik Bets Fights), Instagram (Erik_Bets_Fights), and Twitter (@ErikBetsFights). I’m always down to blab about fights. Good luck on your bets this weekend!

-Erik