Erik's UFC 277 Tape Study Notes

Hey, gang! Here are my tape study notes for UFC 277, headlined by the title rematch between Julianna Pena and Amanda Nunes! I kept it a little tamer this time, but there’s still some fun to be had. As always, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or just wanna shoot the shit a little! Thanks!

JULIANNA PENA (ORTH) VS AMANDA NUNES (ORTH)

In the first fight, I think Pena had the perfect game plan. She made Amanda grapple actively in rd 1, which drained some of her strength and energy. Then, in rd 2, she stuck to a simple, fundamental boxing game, landing the jab and the 1-2 over and over again, and Amanda has never really been hit like that–or at least not that I can recall. 

It was very strange. It was like Amanda didn't know how to defend strikes, because she's almost never had to do it before. She met the tiniest bit of resistance and difficulty, and she just folded. It seemed as though she had bought into her own hype as the toughest woman on the planet and as soon as the smallest crack showed in that armor, she fell apart. 

That said, I don't know that I see it as a particularly replicable performance from Pena. I lean toward thinking Amanda will have learned from this experience and will be more prepared to deal with what Pena brings. But if Pena can force her to grapple and stay in her face on the feet, I think maybe she could tire Amanda out again. I don't know. I think it's gonna be a pass from me as far as betting, but if I were gonna bet it, I'd go with the underdog in Pena at about +250 or 28%. 

The more I think about it, the more I think Pena actually MIGHT be able to replicate that first performance. We know Amanda has had gastank issues in the past, and if she can't finish Pena early, we could see the fight play out similarly. In their first meeting, Amanda's body language changed as soon as Pena started landing those punches in rd 2. It was like Amanda was already a little tired and worn down from rd 1 and as soon as she got hit a few times, she wanted out. It might end up being a stayaway for me, but I'm definitely not interested in betting or parlaying Amanda here. I'd be taking a shot on the dog if anything. 

BRANDON MORENO (ORTH) VS KAI KARA-FRANCE

I don't see much reason to believe that this fight will play out a whole lot differently from how the first one did. 

Kai has a lot of power and is always live to drop or even finish anyone, but Moreno's reach advantage and forward pressure should allow him to keep Kai uncomfortable and largely at a distance where he's unable to consistently land his own shots. 

I'd line the fight around Moreno at -185 or 65%. (Currently, Moreno is at -192 or 65.5%.) Thinking it's a stayaway for me, as I think Moreno wins, but I don't see any value in his line. If I was gonna put something on the KKF side, I'd probably get greedy and sprinkle his KO prop at like +475, but that's probably more of a "fun bet" than a "smart bet." Proceed with caution.

DERRICK LEWIS (ORTH) VS SERGHEI PAVLOVICH (ORTH)

Man, I'm not sure what to do with this one. We know who Derrick Lewis is quite well at this point, and that's not likely gonna change–unless it's for the worse as he ages. He's 37 years old, which isn't especially old at 265 lbs, but he does have 13 years and 35 fights worth of mileage on his body. Not to take anything away from Tai Tuivasa, but his last time out, The Black Beast lost a fight he probably should have won, and as much as I hate to get into moon-landing territory here, I do think an argument can be made that if you watch the tape back, I don't think he was actually unconscious and may have just decided, "OK, yup, I'm tired and that hurt, and I think we're just gonna go ahead and walk through that open exit door." 

Derrick Lewis is very good at hitting people very hard, but he's equally BAD at handling it well when an opponent is able to dish it right back. And Serghei Pavlovich is a guy who is likely to, at some point in the fight, hit Derrick Lewis very, very hard. 

Lewis will often start very slowly, shuffling slowly forward and side to side, not looking to throw anything. It's almost like he lulls his opponent into feeling comfortable, but what he's really doing is slowly corralling you closer and closer to the Octagon fence so he can create his moment to explode forward with punches. I think Pav might be somewhat open to Lewis's style, as he can get a little jumpy when things get chaotic in the pocket. That said, I think Pav is quite a bit quicker and has faster hands. I'd potentially be willing to bet either guy if they were a big enough dog in this fight, but I think I'd rather avoid picking a side and look at unders or FDGTD. I'll line the fight at a pick 'em. (Currently, that's exactly what it is. I can't imagine we'll see this line move enough that I'd be willing to put money on either guy. It's a stayaway for me right now, but I have a feeling I'm gonna think about this fight a lot this week and may end up making a play on the under or possibly even on Pavlovich, but…I just don't know yet. I feel like Derrick Lewis might not be far from his expiration date, and Pavlovich is young, fast, hungry, and powerful. As much as I hate to say it, could be bad news for The Black Beast here.

ALEXANDRE PANTOJA (ORTH) VS ALEX PEREZ (SWITCH)

So here's the thing about me and flyweight fights: they're too damn fast, or I'm too damn old, or both, because when I watch flyweight tape, I feel like I have a really hard time getting a solid read on much of anything. My notes are just, like, "This guy's really fast. The other guy's really fast, too. When they throw punches, they're very fast. Oh, a TD attempt. That was pretty fast, too." And then I just end up thinking it's a coinflip. 

This is a very intriguing and high-level matchup between two of the best flyweights on the planet. It's also a tough fight to call. I suspect Pantoja will be favored a little bit, but not sure. I'd probably be willing to consider a bet on either guy at decent plus money. I'm gonna line this fight around Pantoja at -140 or 58%. (Currently, Pantoja is at -150 or 60%. Pretty much nailed that one. No bet from me at the moment, though I might have to take a shot on Perez if his line got much better here.)

MAGOMED ANKALAEV (SOUTHPAW) VS ANTHONY SMITH (ORTH)

I already know Ankalaev is a huge favorite in this matchup, because I saw a quote from Anthony Smith complaining that he was like +350. However, I have no idea if the line is still sitting in that range or not. As usual, I'm gonna run the tape and see where I think the line should sit. 

Ankalaev is very technical and economical. He has no problem staying disciplined and patient for the entire duration of a fight, picking and choosing his spots. He doesn't often get wild. He doesn't try to take advantage of something that's not there. He definitely prioritizes winning over putting on a show. It's not easy to get the jump on him, and it's not easy to shake him or put him off his game. But that style can also tend to lead to fights playing out more closely than they need to, or even appearing closer than they really are. 

Ankalaev is a very difficult fighter to win minutes against; rather, the key to beating him, I think, is in creating impressive moments. You have to take chances. You have to hit him with something big. Anthony Smith is a fighter who's pretty good at creating those moments. 

You can probably skip this next paragraph. I took the time to look up all this stuff while I was doing tape study, and I already have it typed out, so I'm just gonna drop it right here, whether it "fits" or not:

Anthony Smith started his pro career 5-6. I saw him fight Jesse "Kid Hercules" Forbes from TUF season 3 at a Crowbar MMA show in Fargo, ND in 2010. He lost that fight and then went on a 9-2 run that saw him get a UFC shot in 2013, where he lost to Antonio Braga Neto by kneebar in less than 2 min and received his walking papers. Undeterred, he went on a 7-1 run and was invited back to the UFC in 2016. In his current run, he has gone 11-5 against some of the best and brightest 205 lb-ers the UFC has to offer.

It's hard not to favor Ankalaev in this fight, but I have a feeling I won't favor him as much as the odds do. I guess we'll see. I'm probably willing to line him at like -260 or 72%. (Currently, Ank is at -550 or 84%. To be honest, that seems a bit silly to me. Ankalaev should win this fight, but I think it could potentially play out much more closely than those odds would suggest. (For some context, Smith is +400 here, and he was +550 vs Jon Jones a few years back. I was at that fight live. Not that it matters, but you know I can't help but mention it.) 

Not sure yet if I'll take a shot on Smith or not, but I'm certainly considering it. OK, the props have dropped since I typed that, and these catch my eye: Smith ITD (+650), Smith by KO (+900), and Smith by sub (+1600). And those are BetOnline odds; they're probably even better than that on other books.

Will Anthony Smith win this fight? Probably not. But if Anthony Smith is anything, he's a finisher, so if he DOES pull this off, it's bound to happen without getting the judges involved. Call me crazy, but I might have to do a little Salt Bae action on those Smith props. 

ALEX MORONO (ORTH) VS MATT SEMELSBERGER

Morono is sort of a meat-and-potatoes kinda fighter who has quietly managed to put together a 10-4-1 record in the Octagon. Not a great athlete, but solid technical skills everywhere. Has good punching power, especially for a guy who isn't terribly athletic. Morono can be drawn into wild exchanges in the pocket, but he tends to fade out of them so he's not there long. Almost like he decides to launch two or three punches and see how many of them get out there while he's still in range. 

Semelsberger will have 2 inches of height, 3 inches of reach, and countless inches of athleticism, assuming that's the proper unit of measure for athleticism. (Maybe it's measured in hands, like horses? Probably not.) 

Semi the Jedi was a three-sport athlete in high school (football, lacrosse, and wrestling), and played football at the collegiate level before beginning his MMA career. Morono is the more technical fighter of the two, but Semelsberger has the kind of natural ability and horsepower that can tend to negate a technical advantage. Both guys have pretty good volume, but Morono's is a little better. Morono is one of those guys who's a grappler but doesn't typically look to grapple. He's more than happy to have a kickboxing match for 15 mins. He believes in his power. 

I really think speed and athleticism could be what makes all the difference in this fight. Unless Morono is able to either KO Semi or find a club and sub situation, I think Semi will use his pressure and movement and speed to outland Morono on his way to what could be a closely-contested decision. (Semelsberger could also look to wrestle, but given the success he'll likely be finding on the feet, and the fact that Morono is a second-degree BJJ black belt, I suspect he'll be happy to strike.) I'm gonna line the fight around Semelsberger -170 or 63%. (Currently, Semi can be had for as low as -145 or 59%. I don't know. That almost feels worth a bet, but I'm gonna stay away for now and see if the line does anything interesting.) 

DREW DOBER (SOUTHPAW) VS RAFAEL ALVEZ (ORTH)

I see this as somewhat similar to Dober's last fight vs Terrance McKinney. Alves will come out hard, looking for the early finish, and Dober will likely deal with some sketchy moments. But as long as he can survive that early onslaught, Dober should be able to slow things down and take over. 

Alves brings small moments of explosive danger with long, passive breaks between. He explodes and then rests. A consistent, technical, fundamental striking approach, which Dober is capable of bringing, can be very effective here. Alves's big explosive moments tend to contain the kinds of mistakes and openings that a savvy veteran like Dober can take advantage of. 

I think I like Dober in this matchup, though I'm not sure how much. I'm gonna line it Drew Dober -170 or 63%. (Currently, Dober is at -220 or 69%. No bet from me there, although a shot on Alves ITD might be interesting if it's a huge line.) This is a tailor-made live-bet spot, too, as Alves may have an excellent first round, but as long as Dober survives, he should take over later.

DON'TALE MAYES (ORTH) VS HAMDY ABDELWAHAB

Hamdy Abdelwahab wrestled for Egypt in the 2016 Olympics in Rio, and that's the most impressive thing about him. Well, that and his muscles, I guess. He's clearly a strong, physical guy, but based on the tape I was able to find, he's not a very good MMA fighter. He doesn't look to push the wrestling in his fights, and he was taken down by an amateur fighter named Corey Norman just 3 years ago. He's a physical force with some power in his hands, but he's very, very green. Lord Kong should destroy him. 

Hamdy could be dangerous early, but he's gonna be at a huge reach disadvantage and will struggle to get inside on Mayes. I think he'll lunge in with huge overhand rights and tire himself out in the first rd. Mayes will just need to survive those early attacks and he should be able to take over. 

Hamdy might be able to get TDs on Mayes if he actually tries, but even if he does, I think Mayes will survive those situations, get back to his feet, and eat Hamdy up on the feet from range. Mayes has shown an ability to pace himself and slow a fight down, and I have my doubts that Hamdy can do that. 

Hard to know how to line the fight, but Mayes will likely be a huge favorite here. I guess I'll go with Mayes -240 or 70%, but hard to be sure of anything without seeing more footage of Hamdy. Hopefully there will be more when the tape index updates, as I was only able to find a couple pro fights that were over in seconds and the one amateur fight. (Oh, wow. Mayes is at only -140. I'm gonna bet that. Mayes is pretty green himself, but he's much more polished and well-rounded than Hamdy, and barring a flash KO in the first few mins, Kong should cruise here.)

DRAKKAR KLOSE (ORTH) VS RAFA GARCIA (ORTH)

Klose is well-rounded, hits hard, and is very effective in the clinch, grinding and landing knees and punches. Rafa is short-notice here, I believe, and he has shown some cardio issues. I accidentally saw the odds for this fight today, so I know that Klose is sitting at about 2-to-1. I do like Klose to win, probably by decision, but I'm not interested at those odds. Rafa sits at around +180, but that's not quite something I can get behind either in this spot. Stayaway for me. And that's it, guys. That's all you're getting from me on this one. :)

MICHAEL MORALES (ORTH) VS ADAM FUGITT (SOUTHPAW)

This is kind of a weird fight, but it should be fun while it lasts. Fugitt is very much a classic muay thai-style fighter. The high shoulders, chin tucked low, light on the front leg. Likes to go to the clinch and use knees and elbows. He's capable of looking very good against low-level competition, and he scored an impressive win his last time out over a decent competitor in Solomon Renfro. He KO'ed Renfro in 43 seconds, which SOUNDS impressive, but if you watch the fight…it's kinda not. He basically just spams the same left-head-kick-to-left-cross combo like a dozen times, mixing in one or two front kicks and leg kicks, and then he happens to throw a short right hook that catches Renfro and drops him, where Fugitt is able to follow up for the stoppage. 

Fugitt has an excellent opportunity to prove me wrong here, but I'm not seeing anything in the limited tape I watched that tells me he's ready to contend at this level. 

At 23 years old and with just one UFC fight under his belt, Michael Morales is the right type of test for Fugitt in his UFC debut. Morales can look excellent when he's on, but he's also capable of looking a bit listless at times, and he's also prone to making the kind of mistakes 23-year-old fighters make. That said, he's got a wealth of potential, and he'll likely prove too much for Fugitt here, especially given that he's coming in on just a few days' notice, I believe. I'd line the fight around Morales -185 or 65%, but I won't be surprised if he's a much bigger favorite than that, even. (And he probably should be; I'm just being a little conservative, as I don't feel like I have a super strong read here, and Morales is young and still makes some green mistakes at times.) Currently, Morales is at -650 or 87%. Holy shit. I expected he might be a big fav, but nothing like that. With Fugitt at +425, even though he kinda sucks, that seems worth a shot–especially if my book releases a KO or ITD prop. I'd probably have to take a shot on that, just based on the idea that a 23-year-old kid in his 2nd UFC fight probably shouldn't be -650 over pretty much anybody.

JI YEON KIM (ORTH) VS JOSELYNE EDWARDS (ORTH)

Kim was originally booked to fight Mariya Agapova, and Joselyne Edwards came in on short notice, about 2-3 weeks. Kim throws nice, snappy punches and has a very long reach. (A fighter's reach is typically more-or-less equivalent to their height, but Kim stands 5'7" with a reach measuring at 72" or 6 feet. Pretty crazy.) 

In her last fight vs Ramona Pascual (MY GIRL!), Joselyne Edwards was content to spend much of the fight keeping Pascual at bay with front kicks to the gut and side kicks to the leg. If she goes that route here, I don't think it will work nearly as well against Kim as it did against Ramona. I lean toward thinking Kim should be able to get the better of the striking and possibly even use her wrestling if she chooses to (not that she typically does). That said, it's hard to feel super confident in a read on this fight, in my opinion. Feels like it could just as well be a coinflip, though I do lean toward favoring Ji Yeon Kim slightly. My concern, though, is that it could be like the Cachoeira fight where Kim is the busier fighter and lands more, but Edwards lands the bigger, more impactful punches. But Edwards also might spend 75% of the fight walking backwards and throwing alternating front kicks, so who knows. Feels like a stayaway, but I think if you're gonna bet on a fight like this, you just take the dog. I'll line the fight Ji Yeon Kim -140 or 58%. (Currently, Kim is at +100. Not interested. I'd need at least +130 or something to have any interest here, but this is exactly the kind of fight I'm trying to stay away from moving forward.)

NICK NEGUMEREANU (ORTH) VS IHOR POTIERIA (SOUTHPAW)

Look, we live in a world where Nick Negumereanu is on a 3-fight win streak in the UFC, and this just can't continue. We can't just shrug and agree that this is a world we're willing to live in. It has to end. Does it end on Saturday, vs Ihor Potieria? The guy's no world-beater, but I'm thinking maybe it does. 

Ihor has shown a willingness to be concerningly low-volume at times, but I think he has a combination of size, reach, speed, and athleticism that could make him a handful for a relatively small and one-dimensional slugger like Negumereanu. 

That said, this feels like a fight I don't really want to have money on. I don't trust either guy very much, and I think this is more of a "show-me" spot where we'll be able to see how Ihor looks against a slightly higher (though maybe not much higher) level of competition. Ihor has gone to decision a handful of times in his career, but mostly against extremely low-level comp. At the very least, we know Negumereanu can go a hard 15 mins against UFC-level comp. 

I'm guessing Ihor might be a slight favorite here, based on his impressive finish on DWCS and on Negu's relatively unimpressive Octagon performances thus far. I'd personally line the fight at pretty much a pick-'em, I think. (Currently, Ihor Potieria sits at about -140 or 58%. No bet from me at the moment, though the "Contender's Series Fade" angle would suggest Negu is a good bet here, as he's the underdog against a UFC debutante coming off DWCS.)

ORION COSCE (ORTH/SWITCH?) VS BLOOD DIAMOND

Not to oversimplify, but if you can grapple, you can beat Blood Diamond. The guy is a kickboxer who's decided to start fighting MMA. He does appear pretty strong in the clinch, and he can defend TDs–I'll give him that. But once on the ground, he seems pretty clueless. 

Cosce seems very coachable and able to implement adjustments. On DWCS, he listened to Urijah Faber and was able to come out and have a much better rd 2 than rd 1. Cosce is tough and hard-nosed, and can fight a grueling 15 mins without his cardio flagging too badly. If the fight is grueling, with lots of clinching and wrestling, it's hard to imagine Blood Diamond's cardio will hold up if it goes late. 

Tough fight to call, as BD can be sorta hard to takedown, but even if Orion can't take him down, I think he can grind him on the cage for as long as he needs to and wear on him, and Cosce has the cardio to make that work, I think. I think I like Cosce at maybe around -150 or 60%. I'd line him higher if I was confident he could get BD down, but if this fight does play out on the feet for longer spells, it could be bad news for Cosce. (Currently, Orion Cosce is at -170 or 63%. No bet for me there, but I'd be interested in seeing the line on the under or FDGTD.) Update: it's set at 1.5, of course, which I don't love. My book hasn't released a FDGTD line yet.

That’s it for this week! Thanks for reading, y’all! And if you enjoyed the write-up, please feel free to give it a share and help us grow the NEVERHEDGE ARMY!

OSS!

-Erik (@ErikBetsFights)