Erik's UFC 278 Tape Study Notes

Hey, y’all! I’m back after taking last week off from tape study to focus on a work project. I hope you enjoy these notes (and maybe even get some useful info from them). As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or just wanna talk fights or whatever. Cheers!

KAMARU USMAN (ORTH) VS LEON EDWARDS (SWITCH)

Let me start by saying that I don't really have any eye-opening insight on this fight. Both guys are fairly technical strikers who keep their game pretty buttoned-up most of the time. They both tend to start pretty slow, choosing to use the first round to find their distance and try to make reads on their opponent. Both guys have great eyes and great reflexes, allowing them to see and quickly react to strikes coming their way. 

I do think Leon Edwards might be the more technical striker of the two, but he can't match Usman's power. Usman is the kind of guy who can be outstruck on the numbers but still win the fight by landing the bigger, more damaging strikes. He averages 0.6 knockdowns per 15 min. 

In addition to being at a power disadvantage, Edwards can also be concerningly low-volume. For example, in the Nate Diaz fight, he threw only 139 strikes in 25 mins. For comparison, Usman threw 336 strikes in his last 25-minute affair with Colby Covington. (Admittedly, some of the Edwards/Diaz fight took place in control positions, but still.) 

So, to boil it all down, Leon Edwards is stepping in there against a guy who throws more volume, hits harder, has a 2-inch reach advantage, has bulletproof TDD, has excellent wrestling if he chooses to use it, and hasn't lost a fight in nearly a decade. Barring something extremely fluky, it's very difficult to see how Leon Edwards gets his hand raised here. I'd line the fight something like Kamaru Usman -350 or 77%, but even -400 doesn't seem unreasonable. I understand Leon Edwards is very good, but this just seems like an almost insurmountable task in front of him. (Currently, Usman is -380 or 79%. Usman by decision can be had for -120. Maybe worth a shot?)

PAULO COSTA (ORTH) VS LUKE ROCKHOLD (SOUTHPAW)

Just off the rip, I gotta ask: is this the hunkiest fight in UFC history? It's gotta be right up there. 

If this fight were taking place like 6-7 years ago, it would be a whole different ball of wax (especially considering that Paulo Costa was toiling away in Jungle Fights at the time, but I digress). Luke Rockhold was one of the most dangerous and well-rounded middleweights in the world for a long time, but in the year of our lord 2022, the reality is that he's currently on a 1-3 run and hasn't fought in 3 years. Oh, and did I mention his chin? Homie can't take a punch. And guess what Paulo Costa is really, really good at? Go ahead; guess. 

Costa only fought once a year in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. He's the kind of fighter who is always dangerous. You can kick his ass for 5 mins, and he'll suddenly uncork something huge that can put you out, and that's a fighter that will likely be a problem for the current iteration of Luke Rockhold. Even when Costa looks dead tired, he's capable of blasting that right roundhouse kick to the body or head with alarming speed for a man of his size. Rockhold is still capable of bringing some danger, and he might have his moments early, but with Rockhold's durability issues and Costa's big power, it seems like only a matter of time until Costa finds the chin and gets Luke out of there. Assuming his coaches keep a lock on the wine cabinet the night before, of course. I'll line the fight Costa -320 or 76%. (Currently, Costa is at -300 or 75%. If I'm gonna bet him here, I'll likely look toward his KO or ITD prop. I think he finishes Rockhold.)

TYSON PEDRO VS HARRY HUNSUCKER

The good news about this fight is that now that Harry Hunsucker has moved down to light-heavyweight, we might see Jon Jones actually find the courage to make his heavyweight debut. With "The Hurricane" out of the way, the path to the HW title is that much clearer.

OK, dumb joke. Anyway…

Harry Hunsucker has never been outside the first round in 12 pro fights. He's also had 10 amateur fights, and he did go to rd 2 in one of those. It's very difficult to make confident reads about the depth of his game when he's just never really shown anything. In the footage that is available, he throws leg kicks and occasionally ducks his head and loads up on a huge overhand right or left, like he's swinging a baseball bat. And that's about it. As far as the concrete evidence we have, that might be more-or-less the extent of his game. (He does show some ability to scramble and get up from the ground in the Tafa fight, and he threatens with a kimura momentarily…but then he shoots the worst TD attempt I've ever seen and gets KO'ed with a headkick like one second later, so…yeah.) 

Tyson Pedro has 8 pro wins, all by first-round finish. The under 1.5 in this fight is set at -450, and it's easy to see why. One of these guys is gonna win in the first round, and let's just say Tyson Pedro is a -800 favorite for a reason. That's not to say Harry Hunsucker CAN'T win here. He will come forward aggressively and throw huge haymakers, and if one of those lands, it's gonna be a problem for Tyson Pedro, but the more likely outcome is Hunsucker gets a little wild, punches himself out a little bit, and Pedro lands something that drops Hunsucker later in the round and then finishes up with strikes on the floor for a TKO stoppage in rd 1. (That said, I do feel that the 88% implied at -800 is pretty wide when two big, strong guys are gonna be in there throwin' heavies. If you're looking to bet Pedro, I'd look toward the ITD prop or round 1 prop, which will both also be pretty juiced, I'm guessing. Heck, Hunsucker's round 1 finish prop might even be worth a little sprinkle if you buy into the idea that "fortune favors the bold.")

JOSE ALDO (ORTH) VS MERAB DVALISHVILI (ORTH)

I always say that I hate to oversimplify a fight breakdown, but then I do it anyway, so here goes: I think it's reasonable to assume that the outcome of this fight will largely depend upon Merab's ability to get Aldo to the ground (and, if he can, to keep him there). Merab averages over 7 TDs per 15 min, which is insane. But on the other side, Aldo shows 88% TDD, having been taken down only 9 times in his long and storied UFC career, which is also insane. A statistic to chew on: in 27 (TWENTY-SEVEN!) fights in UFC and WEC combined, Aldo has been taken down more than once in a fight only ONE time: against Frankie Edgar in 2013. He stuffed 9 TD attempts from Urijah Faber. He stuffed 18 of 19 attempts from Kenny Florian. He stuffed 4 attempts from Mike Brown. And on and on. But, to borrow a cliche, none of those guys were Merab Dvalishvili. 

In 9 UFC fights, Merab has landed more than 10 TDs on 3 occasions. He's never been held to 0 TDs, and he's been held to fewer than 5 only twice. The man is a relentless wrestler, and I have to think that he WILL take Jose Aldo down. Merab is very opportunistic with his TDs. He's able to get them in a variety of ways and from a variety of positions. He's able to see an opening in a wild moment of striking and jump on it. 

We have seen Merab get rocked and wobbled numerous times, but he recovers very well. Merab will shoot double-legs and single-legs, but he'll also use unorthodox takedown techniques. Sometimes he'll just crash the pocket, and from clinching range, he's able to off-balance and take down his opponents in a variety of ways. If you've ever trained with a really good judoka, you'll know what I mean. They get so good at understanding how to upset someone's balance, and also how to recognize and capitalize on an opponent who has upset their own balance. I think Merab is such a high-level wrestler that he's capable of something similar. If he can get his hands on his opponent, he's able to manipulate their balance and body positioning in ways that some fighters may not be accustomed to. 

Man, I really don't know how to line this fight. Will Merab have some success with this wrestling? Probably. Will he be able to take Aldo down consistently and keep him down for long stretches? I…..kinda doubt it. Merab is also no slouch on the feet and throws more volume than Aldo. He also throws hard and produces good power, but Aldo is much more buttoned-up and technical, and will almost certainly land the better shots on the feet. I see this as a very close fight, and I'm gonna cop out and line it as a coin flip. (Currently, Merab sits at -135, with Aldo the underdog at +115. I'd love to feel confident enough to bet on this fight, but I just don't have a strong read, and I'm gonna have to stay away, I think.)

MARCIN TYBURA (ORTH/SWITCH) VS ALEXANDR ROMANOV (SOUTHPAW)

Alexandr Romanov is known as "King Kong," and if you watch him fight, it's pretty clear why. The guy is big, strong, and aggressive, and he throws 250-lb men around like…I don't know…something much lighter. It's late and my creativity is sapped, so come up with your own simile if you want. 

He's faced a pretty soft slate of competition in the UFC so far, with the exception of Juan Espino, who gave him all he could handle and may have been on his way to beating Romanov when Romanov took a tap on the cup and decided to take the exit. So we've seen what can happen to Romanov if he meets too much resistance and gets dragged into deep waters. His aggression and penchant for BIG throws and BIG movements can be his undoing. 

At 22-7, Marcin Tybura has been a mainstay in the UFC's heavyweight division since 2016. Before losing to Alexander Volkov his last time out, he was on a 5-fight win streak. And, perhaps most importantly for this particular matchup, he shows 82% TDD. He's been taken down only 5 times in 15 UFC fights. But he's also never faced a fighter with the wrestling skill and tenacity that Romanov will bring. That said, Tybura does represent a clear step up in competition, compared to the fighters Romanov has been ragdolling lately. 

If Romanov isn't able to get easy TDs, or if he gets them and Tybura gets up and makes Romanov really work, this fight could be interesting if it goes late. from what we've seen from Romanov so far, it's fair to say that if you can't stop his takedowns, he's going to beat you, and probably pretty handily. Romanov has averaged nearly 6.5 TDs per 15 mins and 70% control time against his opponents. Make no mistake: these numbers are absolutely absurd. It should be noted, though, that with the exception of Juan Espino, Romanov has been fighting a pretty low level of competition in Chase Sherman, Jared Vanderaa, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, and Roque Martinez. 

Tybura is your classic "solid everywhere but not mind-blowingly good anywhere" type of fighter. He can strike, he can wrestle, and he can grapple. He's a grinder who will look to wear an opponent down. He has almost twice as many pro fights as Romanov and has faced the far higher level of competition. 

It was over a year ago and was only Romanov's 3rd UFC fight, but the Juan Espino fight does show us some interesting things about Romanov and possible paths to beating him. We saw that Romanov can get tired and slow down. He still fought hard when tired in that fight, but he was able to be controlled and taken down. If Tybura is able to stop Romanov's TDs or able to make Romanov work hard enough for them, he could take over this fight later and even look for takedowns of his own. I do think Romanov should be a pretty heavy favorite here, but this fight seems like a good live-betting spot to me. I would line the fight Romanov -300 or 75%. (Currently, Romanov is at -335 or 77%. I think I'll stay away for now and keep an eye on the live line for this one.)

SEAN WOODSON (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH) VS LUIS SALDANA (ORTH/SWITCH?)

OK, look, Sean Woodson might be the most hastily put together human being to ever grace the UFC's storied Octagon. I'm not one to body shame, though, so I'm just gonna say he looks like a human Q-Tip–which is both tame and not very funny or creative–and leave it at that. 

In addition to looking goofy, though, Woodson is also a pretty damn good fighter. He manages to maintain an in-cage air of cool insouciance that's unlike anything I've ever seen (except maybe from Anderson Silva). He engages in combat with other professional fighters while maintaining a look on his face like he just woke up from a nap. 

Luis Saldana is a decent fighter with some solid skills, but I see this as a very difficult matchup for him. He'll be dealing with a 6-inch reach disadvantage against a very technical striker with decent volume and excellent takedown defense. Saldana did show a willingness and an ability to land some opportunistic TDs in the Bruno Souza fight, but I think he'll struggle to do the same against Woodson, who keeps distance pretty well and shows 82% TDD so far in his UFC career, having been taken down only 8 times on 45 attempts. (The fact that Woodson has faced 45 TD attempts in only 5 UFC-level fights tells you a lot about how his opponents view his striking. Nobody really wants to hang out and strike with this guy, and for good reason.) 

So, in essence, Saldana is going to find himself in there with a guy he can't outstrike and (probably) can't take down–and he's tended to show suspect cardio, as well, which will almost certainly rear its head here if Saldana is repeatedly trying and failing to take Woodson down. I like Woodson quite a bit here. Saldana is a decent fighter, but this seems like a really tough stylistic matchup for him. I'll line the fight Woodson -300 or 75%. (Currently, Woodson is at -340 or 77%. I don't see any value in that line, really, but it's something I might consider parlaying anyway…even though I shouldn't. Cuz I'm a dummy like that, and I like to have fun. Another thing to consider: Sean Woodson has gone to decision quite a bit, but he's also pretty good at going for the finish when it's there, and Saldana does tend to gas out, even going so far as to bend over and put his hands on his knees to catch his breath late in a fight. This might be a spot to consider Ye Olde Round 3 Finish Prop on the Woodson side.)

AORIQILENG (ORTH) VS JAY PERRIN (ORTH)

Perrin is tough and scrappy, with serviceable skills in all areas. He's the kind of guy who I expect to give a good, fun fight against almost anyone he faces, but I also think he'll often end up on the losing end of those scraps, and that includes this one. 

I expect this fight to play out closely at times, with both guys having their moments, but I lean toward Aoriqileng to have the better volume, to land the harder shots, and to be able to scramble back to his feet if Perrin looks for TDs. 

Perrin is a hard-nosed fighter who will at times push forward somewhat wildly with punch combos, and he doesn't mind getting into greasy exchanges in the pocket. I think Qi will have opportunities to counter Perrin with hard punches and, while Perrin might be tough enough to see the final horn, I think Aoriqileng will hurt him at times. I'm leaning Qi by decision or possibly late finish. I would line the fight Aoriqileng -180 or 64%. (I actually like Qi to get the better of Perrin at a higher clip than that number indicates if the fight were to play out 100 times, but I also think it could play out closely enough that I'd feel wary trusting Qi at a worse number, I think. Currently, Qi is at -170 or about 63%. I might put a little something on that, but I wouldn't go real heavy.)

VICTOR ALTAMIRANO (SWITCH/SOUTHPAW) VS DANIEL DA SILVA

I'm absolutely awful at handicapping flyweight fights. I always do the tape and feel no closer to having a solid read than I had before I started, and this fight is no exception. 

To be frank, I'm not sure I know what Victor Altamirano is good at. He seems to have a decent chin and pretty solid cardio. He uses a lot of movement. He puts out pretty decent volume on the feet. He kinda hangs out, dipping his head around and switching stances. He'll throw a punch or kick here and there, and then he'll occasionally clinch his opponent and either look to trip him backwards or just walk him to the cage and cage-push for a while. To me, he reads like a fighter who sort of runs out of ideas in the cage. He might be the kind of fighter whose biggest assets are cardio and toughness, which can be enough to beat a certain level of fighter in the UFC. Four of Altamirano's 10 pro wins are by sub, including armbar, heel hook, triangle, and D'arce. 

My quick-and-dirty breakdown of this fight goes as follows: Daniel Da Silva is skilled and dangerous, but his cardio is suspect and it seems he can fall apart a little if the fight extends past round one. Altamirano is significantly less skilled and less dangerous, but he has cardio, toughness, and consistency, and unless you stop him, he'll be there, still fighting hard, still looking for a way to win. I've already seen the line on this fight, and I know Altamirano is almost a 2-to-1 fav, which sorta makes sense, I guess…but sorta doesn't. It's kinda like what I said about Ariane Lipski vs Priscila Cachoeira: "Lipski is the better fighter, but that doesn't always matter." And look how that one played out. I think Silva is the more skilled fighter…the "better" fighter if you wanna define it that way…but unless he can get Altamirano out of there in round 1, I think he'll lack the cardio and heart to put those "better" skills to work. It's also worth noting, though, that Daniel Da Silva is only 26. He's only 2 fights into his UFC career, and before coming to the big show, he'd been fighting a fairly low level of competition. He probably wasn't meeting with a lot of resistance, so his aggressive, go-for-broke style was working. I never want to bank on any changes until we see them, but we could still see Silva turn a corner and adjust his style to be more effective against the higher-caliber fighters he's now facing. Just a thought. As far as betting, I don't like Altamirano's moneyline at all. I think it's a perfect live-betting spot, as Silva should have a good first rd, but if he doesn't get the finish, he'll likely start to fade and if you time it right, you can probably get a decent number on Altamirano. If I was going to bet anything preflop, I'd probably be looking at Silva ITD or Silva in rd 1. 

LUCIE PUDILOVA (ORTH) VS WU YANAN (ORTH)

While running the tape on Wu Yanan vs. Mayra Bueno Silva, I had this thought: Wu is the light-footed striker who uses lots of movement and volume but not much power. Silva is the flat-footed striker who plods, sets her feet, doesn't use much volume, and wants to land with power. Pudilova is kind of a nice sweetspot between those two styles, I think. 

I lean toward thinking Pudilova will be able to walk Wu down and land the bigger strikes. I'd like to see Wu potentially look to wrestle here, but there's no reason to believe she'll look to do that. The story on Wu Yanan seems to be constant movement, high output, low accuracy, and low power. Even if she outlands her opponent, she's likely to get hit with the harder, more impressive-looking shots, and I see no reason to believe the same thing doesn't happen here. 

Pudilova has gone to decision in 9 of her last 10, and Wu has gone to decision in 4 of her last 5. Fight goes the distance will probably be super juiced, but I think if I was gonna play anything here, that would be it. Or maybe a dec prop for one side. I favor Pudilova here slightly for her power and forward pressure. I guess I'll line the fight Pudilova -150 or 60%. (Currently, Pudilova is at -157 or 61%. I do like Pudilova to win, but this feels like potentially a close enough fight that if I was gonna bet a side, I might take the plus-money on Wu Yanan.)

AJ FLETCHER VS ANGE LOOSA (ORTH)

This is a tough fight to get a good read on, or at least it is for me. These guys are both absolute tanks: very thick, strong, athletic dudes. Though they both stand rather short for the division at 5'10", Ange Loosa does show a massive 7-inch reach advantage. 

On the feet, Fletcher can be very wild and dynamic, throwing spinning techniques, flying knees, etc. But Loosa is the more consistent and technical striker with the better output. 

Generally speaking, especially when I don't feel that I have the best read on a fight, my tendency is to lean toward the strong wrestler to be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Loosa does show 100% TDD defense at the UFC level, but that's on only 5 total attempts from Mounir Lazzez and Jack Della Maddalena, who are both good fighters but don't have the wrestling of a guy like AJ Fletcher. If Ange Loosa CAN defend AJ's TDs, I think he can frustrate him, tire him out, and outstrike him. Fletcher did tire out in his UFC debut vs Matt Semelsberger, but that can at least partially be chalked up to the UFC jitters, and he did fight well through the exhaustion, especially in aggressively looking for the win on the feet in the final seconds. It's not a confident lean, but I would line the fight AJ Fletcher -135 or 57%. (Currently, Fletcher is at -160 or 61%. No bet from me here at the moment.)

AMIR ALBAZI (ORTH/SWITCH) VS FRANCISCO FIGUEREIDO (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH)

There's no doubt that Francisco is the B-side of the Figueiredo brothers, but I don't think he's as bad as a lot of people think. He does show some issues with his fight IQ, though, giving up position to look for subs, the awkward flying knee he threw to open rd 3 vs Malcom Gordon, etc. 

Amir Albazi, on the other hand, has solid skills everywhere and can be trusted to make rational in-fight decisions and keep it tight rather than getting wild and loose and awkward, like Fig. We don't wanna get too deep into MMA math territory, but Fig lost a close, grueling, back-and-forth decision to Malcolm Gordon, while Albazi tossed Gordon around and submitted him with a triangle in the first rd. Basically, Figueiredo does have some skills, but it's like they've just been haphazardly thrown into a pile, or stirred into a soup or something. There's no structure. The pieces of his game don't know how to work together. Albazi, on the other hand, is able to transition well between different ranges and aspects of the game and able to make smart, effective, and efficient decisions in different situations. Figgy is dangerous and can find moments even with very small openings, but Albazi should be able to piece him up on the feet and control him on the ground if it goes there. I just trust Albazi to bring the more consistent and trustworthy game and make the better decisions from moment to moment. I'll line the fight Amir Albazi at -240 or 70%. (Currently, Albazi is at -350 or 77%. That's wide enough that I'm not interested in betting it, but I can't really disagree with it. Unless Fig catches lightning in a bottle and finds a sub, Albazi should just be the better fighter here.)

JARED GORDON VS LEONARDO SANTOS (ORTH)

Leonardo Santos is a 42-year-old lightweight with a questionable gas tank, and this fight takes place at altitude. In his prime, he went undefeated in 8 straight UFC fights. He hits like a truck and started training BJJ when he was five years old. If the guy wasn't on the wrong side of 40, he'd be a clear favorite in this spot. 

Gordon's game seems to be "apply pressure with solid but unspectacular boxing and then shoot a TD when the opportunity is there and ride out top time with mostly lukewarm GNP." He's sorta got that "blue-collar, everyman, show up to work with lunchpail in hand" wrestle-boxer style. 

Even at his advanced age, I do think Leonardo Santos is still a dangerous fighter who could potentially create some scary moments for Jared Gordon. But there's enough Clay Guida in Jared Gordon that I think Gordon can have similar success by moving forward, pressuring Santos, getting in his face and making him uncomfortable. Santos will likely tire out and Gordon should be able to take over. I'll line the fight Gordon -180 or 64%. (Currently, Gordon is at -265 or 72%, with Santos at +225 or 30%. Heck, I see him as high as +260 or 27%. That almost feels worth a bet. I might take a stab at that, or maybe at Santos's ITD prop if the number looks good.)

MIRANDA MAVERICK (SOUTHPAW) VS SHANNA YOUNG (ORTH)

If there's a knock I can make on Maverick, it's that she sorta seems like one of those fighters who relies a bit too much on her natural physicality, somewhat to the detriment of technique. 

This is actually a rematch of a 2019 fight from the Invicta Phoenix Series, which was a one-night tournament of one-round fights. On that night, Miranda Maverick won a decision over Victoria Leonardo, then submitted Shanna Young by RNC, then submitted Deanna Bennett with an RNC in the 3rd rd of the main event, which was either 3 rds or 5 rds–not sure which.

Shanna Young is quite a bit bigger than Maverick and likely would have advantages on the feet, but if their first fight is any indication, Maverick won't let her stay on her feet long enough to get much striking going. 

I'm expecting to find Miranda Maverick as a pretty big favorite here and, while she probably should be, and she probably will win, Shanna Young does have some tricks up her sleeve and could be worth a shot if she's a huge dog. I'll line the fight Miranda Maverick -215 or 68%, but I'm expecting to find her as an even bigger fav than that, potentially. (Currently, Maverick is at -500 or 83%. Yikes. No way I would touch that. Comeback on Shanna Young is +385 or 20%. I don't know if I'll pull the trigger or not, as I do think Miranda Maverick wins this fight a good percentage of the time, but that line does seem awfully wide. Maybe Mav's sub or ITD props will be worth a look?)