Erik's UFC 280 Tape Study Notes

Chucky Olives vs. Islam Makhachev

Hey, NeverHedge crew! I’m heading to Mexico for my first anniversary/delayed honeymoon this week, and I knew I wasn’t gonna have time to research all the fights, but with this being the biggest card of the year, I really wanted to get something out for y’all. So I compromised with myself and watched tape for the main card only. So that’s what you’re getting here! Thanks for reading, and please find me on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or just wanna talk fights. Cheers!

CHARLES OLIVEIRA (ORTH) VS ISLAM MAKHACHEV (SOUTHPAW)

Well, it's time. Or almost time. This has got to be one of the most anticipated UFC matchups since…I don't know…some fight that happened quite a while ago. Anyway, this is a fire matchup (as the kids say), and the Twittersphere has been ablaze with hot takes on it for months already. It isn't everyday a fighter on a 10-fight UFC win streak steps into the cage for a five-rounder against a fighter on an 11-fight UFC win streak. In fact, it's ONLY this day, as this is the first and only time in UFC history that two fighters on 10-fight win streaks will face each other. Ever. That's pretty cool.

Charles Oliveira made his UFC debut way back in 2010 and quickly established himself as a dangerous but inconsistent submission artist, armbarring Darren Elkins in 41 seconds in his UFC debut and then tapping to a Jim Miller kneebar in less than 2 minutes just a few months later. He fell into a pretty consistent "win a couple, lose a couple" pattern before finding a 4-fight win streak in 2014-2015, followed immediately by a 2-4 stretch in 2016-2017. But here's where things get interesting. After losing by ground-and-pound to Paul "The Irish Dragon" Felder in 2017, something clicked. Ol' Chucky Olives guillotined Clay Guide in the first round in June 2018 and hasn't lost a fight since. He currently enjoys an 11-fight win streak in which he finished every opponent except the (until recently) notoriously durable Tony Ferguson. 

Always a dangerous grappler, Oliveira has fashioned himself into a tricky and dangerous striker in recent years, as well. He does get dropped early in pretty much every fight, which is concerning, but it hasn't led to his downfall yet. 

Islam Makhachev made his UFC debut in 2015, with a second-round rear naked choke finish of Leo "The Lion" Kuntz. (Not that you asked, but I lived in Fargo for 21 years, and Leo is a North Dakota boy who fought on regional shows around the area, so it was cool to see him get a UFC shot, even if he wasn't able to make the most of it.) 

Makhachev grew up training with Khabib Nurmagomedov, under the tutelage of Khabib's late father, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov (Not only did I remember Khabib's dad's name off the top of my head–I even SPELLED it right without looking–big day for me), so the considerable shine that's fallen on him is no surprise. A former combat sambo world champion, Islam brings the same type of dominant, suffocating wrestling and top pressure for which his longtime friend and training partner is known. 

Makhachev's UFC career has been marked by periods of inactivity, sometimes fighting only once per calendar year and sitting out 2020 entirely, but he has picked up the pace since Khabib's retirement, fighting 3 times in 2021 and stepping in now for his second fight in 2022. 

Though not on Khabib's level athletically, Makhachev does exhibit similar skills and gameplanning, averaging almost 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and showing an impressive 52% control time over his opponents. And Islam presents a submission threat as well, having finished 5 UFC opponents with a variety of subs, including kimura, rear naked choke, arm triangle, and armbar. 

This is an interesting matchup because Makhachev clearly butters his bread with his wrestling and top control, and Oliveira hasn't faced a lot of consistent takedown-based gameplans as, let's face it, most fighters don't care to be on the ground with the most prolific submission artist in UFC history, even if they are going to the ground on what they view as their own terms. 

On the feet, Makhachev tends to be tentative and low-volume, patiently choosing when to use his striking to close the distance to clinch or shoot a takedown. Oliveira is the more effective striker, in terms of both technique and output, and I expect him to get the better of standup exchanges. 

To view examples of Oliveira being taken down in the Octagon, we have to go back to his fight with Kevin Lee in early 2020. Lee was able to take Oliveira down twice on 3 attempts and, while Oliveira did show off his slick guard skills, there were also spells where he was controlled and held flat on his back. If Kevin Lee can do that, Islam certainly can. (Oliveira did go on to cinch up a guillotine for a third-round finish in that fight, though, which serves as a stark reminder of how dangerous he can be if he finds the tiny opening he needs to do what he does best.) Labeled a bit of a "quitter" earlier in his career, Oliveira has made great strides toward shedding that label, but Islam is exactly the kind of fighter who can grind on Oliveira and potentially tire him and frustrate him enough for that bit of doubt and discouragement to rear its ugly head again, especially if we see the fight go into the championship rounds. 

I'll admit that pre-tape, I was not expecting to feel this way, but I think I have to favor Islam Makhachev here, though not by much. I'd probably line the fight something like Makhachev -150 or 60%. (Currently, Islam sits at -185 or 65%, with the comeback on Chucky Olives at +165 or about 38%. Honestly, that line kind of surprises me. I don't like a bet on Islam at that number, and I don't really love Chucky's moneyline, either, though I'll be interested to see what his finish props look like when they drop. If you're the kind of bettor who likes to get a little jiggy widdit, this is the kind of fight where you could probably find a fun way to play both sides–like Islam's moneyline and a sub or ITD prop for Chuck. It's a pass for me at the moment, but bet your buns I'll be keeping an eye on this line and anxiously awaiting the props for this fight.)

ALJAMAIN STERLING (ORTH/SWITCH) VS TJ DILLASHAW (ORTH/SWITCH) 

Another fight that has fans split into two aggressively vocal camps.

Aljo is a long-time Serra/Longo disciple who's been plying his trade in the UFC's Octagon since 2014. He started his Octagon tenure with 4 straight wins, then dropped consecutive fights to Bryan Carraway and Raphael Assuncao, before embarking on a 7-1 run that earned him a title shot opposite the dominant Petr Yan. That meeting ended in bizarre fashion when Aljo ate an illegal knee that either knocked him so loopy that he couldn't continue or he PRETENDED it did, depending upon which camp you're coming from. Regardless, the two elite bantamweights rematched one year later, and Aljo again walked away with the belt after getting his hand raised in a closely-contested five-round affair that ended by split-decision. Aljo was able to show a complete mixed martial arts game in that fight, winning many moments both on the feet and on the ground. However, Aljo's output and aggression dropped off later in the fight, allowing Yan to largely dominate the championship rounds. 

TJ Dillashaw first showed up on fans' radars as a promising but raw wrestler on season 14 of 'The Ultimate Fighter' back in 2011. He won 3 fights on the show to secure a position in the finals opposite the dangerous John Dodson. Dillashaw was KOed early in that fight but bounced back with 4 straight UFC wins before dropping a split-decision to bantamweight stalwart Raphael Assuncao. Two fights later, Dillashaw came in as a +650 dog against Renan Barao and finished him in the fifth frame to score one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. If any doubts had remained prior to that performance, it quickly became apparent that the kid was for real. His career since then has been a bit of a rollercoaster, eventually leading to a positive USADA test and a subsequent two-year suspension, which actually stretched to 2.5 years before he returned, picking up a split-decision over Cory Sandhagen in July 2021. 

This fight will be his first since the Sandhagen win, meaning the 36-year-old Dillashaw has fought only once in the span from early 2019 to late 2022. I think it's difficult to be confident in how this fight will play out, but I like TJ to have the better optics on the feet, with his aggression, output, and tendency to take the center of the Octagon (especially given that Aljo has a tendency to circle on the outside). I like TJ to rack up minutes of control time with clinching and cage-pushing on the feet and, if he gets the takedowns, top control time on the mat, as well. I like TJ's pace and pressure to bring him to an early lead that will be tough for Aljo to overcome, especially given his tendency to slow later in the fight. Overall, I see this fight as pretty close, but I think I'm willing to favor Dillashaw slightly, let's say Dillashaw -130 or 56%. (Currently, Dillashaw sits at +155. Yeah, I'm betting that. Can't say I'm 100% confident in my read here, but I'm gonna choose to trust it, anyway.)

PETR YAN (ORTH/SWITCH) VS SEAN O'MALLEY (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH)

I gotta give the UFC props for putting this matchup together. They kinda protected Sean O'Malley for quite a while, though the UFC can't take all the blame for his string of soft matchups early, as Sugar himself said he wasn't interesting in facing top talent until he felt ready (well…actually it was more about how much he was getting paid, but anyway). O'Malley's last outing, vs. Pedro Munhoz, ended as a no contest due to eye poke, in a fight O'Malley was winning. Munhoz was O'Malley's biggest test at the time, but Yan represents a MASSIVE step up in competition for the Rainbow Rebel (yeah, I made that up; maybe I’ll tweet it at him and see if he likes it). O'Malley is a tall, long striker that puts out a good amount of volume and lands at an impressive 62% clip. (He sits at just shy of 65% on his striking defense, too, which makes for a pretty impressive combination of striking stats.) He does have some grappling chops, having even choked out Takanori Gomi in a grappling event in 2019, but it's certainly not where he prefers to fight. 

Petr Yan is also a talented, high-volume striker. Considering that both men prefer to operate in the standing realm, it would be reasonable to think O'Malley's 4" height advantage and 5" reach advantage could be a problem here. But Yan is exactly the kind of fighter who will take those advantages away and refuse to allow O'Malley to get comfortable and have the fight he wants to have. Petr Yan is a fighter who pushes forward confidently and aggressively, staying in his opponent's face with strikes and pressure. This tendency should largely negate much of the reach advantage, as Yan will simply march forward, taking away the reach and not allowing O'Malley many opportunities to set his feet and really take advantage of his length. (Unless you're incredibly adept at countering while backpedaling–which is very hard to do effectively–it's difficult to really leverage a reach advantage if you're not leading the dance.)

Yan is excellent at keeping a guard up when his opponent is attacking and then finding the small openings in which to return fire. He also changes stances and mixes up attacks in the pocket, and his opponents are left struggling to solve the puzzle. He's much better than O'Malley in the pocket, and he'll find his cool little trips and sweeps in close, which look great to the judges. 

I really don't have much else to say about this fight. The only way I can see Sean O'Malley winning here is if Petr Yan hangs back and gives him space to get his game going, and that just ain't the Petr Yan way. Yan does tend to start a little slow, so I guess I could see him potentially dropping the first round and taking a 29-27, but I lean toward thinking he probably wins all 3 rounds and takes a pretty clear unanimous decision. I'd line this fight something like Petr Yan -250 or 71%, but I believe I saw the odds for this fight a while back, and I think he's even wider than that. (Currently, Yan sits at -300 or 75%. I don't love that, but it's probably fine. I'll parlay him at that number. I think it's very unlikely that he loses here.)

BENEIL DARIUSH (SOUTHPAW) VS MATEUSZ GAMROT (ORTH)

I'm gonna keep this one short. Y'all know I have an "I don't have a read on this one" fight every week, and apparently that holds true even when I only cover the main card because I really don't feel like I know what's gonna happen here.

Dariush hasn't fought in almost a year and a half. Man, I would have guessed Benny Dariush was like 38. I guess it's just cuz his hair is grey and it seems like he's been around forever, but him being only 33 surprised me. You go, Benny. 

Both guys are dangerous. Both guys are well-rounded. Benny is 15-4-1 and is currently riding a 7-fight win streak. He looked great against (the ghost of) Tony Ferguson his last time out. 

Gamrot's last walk was a 5-round banger against Arman Tsarukyan that saw both guys have big moments, with Gamrot walking away with a rather contentious decision as a 2-to-1 underdog. Many expected Tsarukyan to be the better wrestler in that fight, but Gamrot held him to only one completed takedown on 8 attempts, while Gamrot was able to take Arman down 6 times on 21 attempts. 

I'm not even gonna try to line this fight, and I've already seen the odds, anyway. Gamrot is a decent-sized favorite at -185 or 65%. I see this fight as closer than that (though, like I said, I'm not confident in my reads on this fight at all). If I was gonna bet it, I'd probably take a shot on Dariush at +165, but unless this line suddenly moves a ton, it's a pass for me, I think.

KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN VS MANON FIOROT (SOUTHPAW)

We all know very well who Chookagian is and what she does by now. Her game is pretty bare-bones and predictable, but she does what she does well enough to make it work against most opponents. Also, at 5'9" with a 69" reach, she's pretty damn big and long, which makes her style work that much better. She's a busy (but not particularly) active striker who might spend a lot of time punching air, but at least she kiais like a tennis pro while doing it. She's 11-4 at the UFC level and has found a finish in exactly ZERO of those 11 wins. She is the only fighter in UFC history to achieve 11 total wins without finishing an opponent. She's currently riding a 4-fight win streak, though many fans felt Amanda Ribas could have been given the nod in Chook's last fight. 

Manon Fiorot is probably my current favorite up-and-comer in any of the UFC's women's divisions. She started her UFC career in January 2021 with a TKO finish of the overmatched Victoria Leonardo, before finishing Tabatha Ricci and finding decisions over Mayra Bueno Silva and Jennifer Maia. Women's flyweight isn't the deepest division in the world, and Fiorot already finds herself ranked #7 and potentially nearing a title shot with a win here. Like Chookagian, Fiorot is a high-output striker, but the comparisons largely stop there. Fiorot lands at a significantly higher clip and also shows an impressive 70.4% striking defense. And more importantly, she's MEAN. She's not hitting the air. She's hitting her opponent and hitting her HARD. Including exhibition fights, she has 11 wins under her belt, and 7 of those women have found themselves staring up at the lights. KO power isn't something we see everyday in a 125-lb woman, so Fiorot definitely brings some intrigue and excitement. 

Besides her sidekick to the body and stomping side kick to the front of the leg, she rarely throws only a single strike. Lots of 3- and 4-strike combos, and she mixes up her punches to the head and body in those combos. Love it. She loves to catch her opponent coming in with either the check right hook or the big sidekick to push them away. She knocked Mayra Bueno Silva halfway across the Octagon with that sidekick. Silva was so surprised that she stood up smiling and high-fived Fiorot, which was pretty adorable. (Reminded me of my very first live MMA event, at which I cornered my best friend. Picture it: Keystone, South Dakota. 1999. A wrestling mat rolled out on the grass with folding chairs around it. Anyway, my buddy got flattened by a huge hook, but he bounced right back up and gave the guy a big thumbs-up and said, "NICE SHOT." haha.) While watching the Bueno Silva fight, I decided to count how many times Fiorot throws 3- and 4-punch combos in the first round, and the final tally was two 4-punch combos and sixteen 3-punch combos. SIXTEEN. She often leads with her power hand and throws the 2-1-2, the 2-3-2, or the 2-3-4. 

Fiorot is vicious and fearless. I think you'd have to hurt her to keep her off you, and I don't think Chookagian can hurt her. So even though Chook has that reach advantage, I think Fiorot will get inside and land the bigger and more impactful strikes. She doesn't typically butter her bread as a grappler, but she has taken all 4 of her UFC opponents down at least once and shows 18.6% control time against her opponents. I don't expect much of this fight (if any) to play out on the ground, but Fiorot did show in the Bueno Silva fight that she's savvy enough to grab a TD in the last 20-30 seconds of a round to seal it on the scorecards, and I like to see that. I like Fiorot here quite a bit. I've seen the line, so I do know Fiorot is favored, but I don't remember how much. Almost 2-to-1, I think? (Currently, Fiorot is at -225 or 69%. I do think she wins here, but Chookagian isn't a fighter I like the idea of betting against. I expect this fight to go to decision, and Chook just seems to have the magic spell to get the judges on her side. I'll probably stay off this one.) 

That’s all I got for ya this week! I likely won’t be able to research next week’s card (Kattar vs. Allen) due to my trip, but I’ll be back in full force for the Bryce Mitchell card the following week. Thanks for reading! If you enjoy my work, please subscribe to the NeverHedge Media YouTube page and my personal YouTube page (just search Erik Bets Fights). Good luck on your bets!

-Erik