Erik's UFC Long Island Tape Study Notes

Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega Full Card Notes & Thoughts

BRIAN ORTEGA (ORTH/SWITCH) VS YAIR RODRIGUEZ (SWITCH)

Difficult to make a call on this fight without knowing for sure whether Ortega is gonna wear the MEGA-CUP. Remember when Trenta was the biggest cup you could get at Starbucks? Well, now it goes Tall, Grande, Venti, Trenta, Ortega.

I don't want to go so far as to simplify this into a striker vs grappler matchup, as both guys are reasonably well-rounded mixed martial artists, but…let's be honest, it's a striker vs grappler matchup. I expect Yair to get the better of the standup. He should be able to eat up Ortega's legs. He also has more/better lateral movement and footwork, and he throws more volume (NOTE: I just looked at the stats, and they don't support this. Good reminder that while we don't wanna read too much into stats, they can help with determining whether what our eyes are telling us is true. Ortega actually throws slightly more volume according to the numbers).

The way Max dominated Yair on the ground in rd 3 of their fight doesn't give me a lot of faith in Yair if he goes to the ground with Ortega. Ortega has only 24% TD accuracy and averages less than 1 TD per 15 min, so if you choose to read into those stats, a bet on Yair at plus money doesn't seem like a terrible idea, but I think I'm gonna stay away from this one. Might take a stab on Ortega's sub prop at +300, but not sure yet.

MICHELLE WATERSON (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH) VS AMANDA LEMOS (ORTH)

One thing I know for sure is that Amanda Lemos is the most dangerous woman in the world with a Kate Gosselin haircut (I'll save you the google time: she's the lady from 'Jon & Kate Plus 8').

I'm thinking this is gonna be a tough fight for Waterson on the feet. Michelle struggles to land anything hard enough to put some respect or fear in her opponents and back them up, so instead, she uses her side kick to literally push them back out of range. Waterson tends to use her legs more than her hands, but she does have some pretty nice, straight punches when she throws them.

Lemos definitely has an advantage in power here, but I expect Waterson has the cardio advantage if the fight goes long. Waterson shows in the Hill fight that she can go a hard 25 mins without really slowing down at all. She ends that fight with flurries of punches and kicks. Appears to show no exhaustion at all. I think Waterson will need to either hurt Lemos on the feet–which I doubt she can, unless she can land a side kick to the chin–or she needs to wrestle. If it plays out on the feet, Lemos will likely be landing the bigger, harder, more impactful shots, and Lemos will continue to pressure and get stronger and more confident unless you can hurt her and get her doubting herself.

Attempting TDs would also be important for Waterson here, I think, to get Lemos thinking about something other than openly unloading with her big strikes. Waterson has only 29% TD accuracy, and Lemos has 89% TDD, so that doesn't bode well for Waterson having success with her wrestling here. (Lemos has been taken down once–by Angela Hill–in 9 total TD attempts, so not a huge sample size, but still.)

I do favor Lemos here quite a bit, as it's hard to imagine Waterson doing any damage on the feet or having much success with her wrestling. I'll line the fight Lemos -300 or 75%. (Currently, Lemos is at -350 or 77%, with Waterson at +290 or 25%.) No bet from me here, though I know at least one book opened Waterson by decision at +700, and that's something I'd probably put a sprinkle on if I had access.

JINGLIANG LI (ORTH) VS MUSLIM SALIKHOV (ORTH)

Li Jingliang and Muslim Salikhov are both powerful strikers, but I feel like Muslim lands with a power and authority that really makes an impact, both physically on his opponent and visually on fans and judges. He throws hard, straight punches and quick, powerful kicks with no wind-up. I think Muslim will be both the more powerful striker and the more technical striker here. We may see Li Jingliang look to push the clinching and wrestling, but Muslim does have 81% TDD and only 7% control time against him. Li does attempt 10.4 significant strikes per min (SS/M), to only 6.5 for Muslim, so Li may have a volume edge, but Muslim shows an impressive 68% striking defense, absorbing only 2.3 SS/M (to Li's 3.7). Muslim lands 1.1 TD/15 min, with Li at 1.2, so no big edge there.

I think this fight plays out mostly on the feet, with Li being the busier party but not landing as much and Muslim landing the harder, more impactful shots. Li has never been finished by strikes, and I see it going to a competitive but clear decision for Muslim Salikhov.

I'd line the fight around Muslim -200 or 66%. (Currently, Muslim is at -162 or 61.7%. Hmm. I don't love that, but maybe a parlay piece? The only thing that worries me a little about betting on Muslim here is Li squeaking out a split decision by coming forward more and throwing more, even if Muslim is landing the better strikes.)

MATT SCHNELL (ORTH) VS SUMUDAERJI (SOUTHPAW)

Seems like kind of a weird pairing, with Schnell on a 2-fight losing streak and Sumudaerji on a 3-fight winning streak.

Matt Schnell carries himself like the most incredulous fighter on the roster. Homie fights with a look on his face like he smells a fart and he's pretty sure it was you.

Neither of these guys typically look to grapple, so this will likely play out largely as a kickboxing contest. (Schnell is a solid grappler, with 8 sub finishes in his pro fights–including wins by armbar, triangle, inverted triangle, and guillotine–but he doesn't typically look to grapple actively. He's attempted only 6 TDs in his 10 UFC fights, and only taken down 2 opponents successfully).

Schnell averages better volume (11.1 SS/M vs 8.7 for Su), but Su has significantly better stats on striking accuracy (51% vs 38% for Schnell) and striking defense (68% vs 59% for Schnell). Typically, we like to see a fighter's striking accuracy % and striking defense % total around 100, and Su's add up to 119, which is excellent.

Schnell is 15-7 as a pro, but he's also 10-2 as an amateur. As much as I don't like to take amateur fights into account too much, that's a significant amount of additional experience and a solid win record. He's creeping up on 40 total fights, which is pretty impressive.

I think Schnell is going to struggle to get inside on Su and will eventually start to get reckless, lunging in with big punching combos that will allow Su to counter him. I'd like to see Schnell mix in TD attempts to get Su thinking, as if Su is confident it's only a kickboxing match, I think he'll enter a flow state and be very hard to beat.

I lean Su pretty heavy here, as it's hard for me to see how Schnell would get the upper hand unless he suddenly decides to start wrestling or he's able to catch Su with something big, which is hard to do. I guess another possibility is Su dropping Schnell with a punch, following him to the ground, and getting caught in a triangle or something.

I think if you like Schnell here, I'd maybe look at his finish props, as I see it going Su's way if it hits the scorecards. I'll line the fight Su -215 or 68%. (Currently, Su is at -250 or 71%. No bet for me here. I was interested in Su's KO prop, but it dropped at only +110, which I don't love.)

SHANE BURGOS (ORTH) VS CHARLES JOURDAIN (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH)

Burgos is huge. He'll have 2 inches of height and like 6.5 inches of reach here. If you showed me a picture of Shane Burgos and told me "This guy weighs 145 lbs; how tall do you think he is," I'd guess about 5'2". Homie’s got some impressive THICCNESS for a 145-er who stands almost 6 feet tall.

He also attempts 15.1 significant strikes/min and lands 7.9, which are among the best offensive striking stats I can recall seeing. Jourdain is also no slouch with the striking numbers, at 11.3 attempted and 5.6 landed. These boys like to throw hands.

‘Round Three Charles Jourdain' has become one of the mythical fighters we talk about. In round 3 of the Andre Ewell fight, he goes straight-up Sparta in the last few seconds and front-kicks Ewell into Hades, a la Pat Smith vs. Rudyard Moncayo at UFC 6.

I think this fight could play out very closely, and neither guy gives much of a damn about trying to wrestle, so I think we'll be treated to 15 mins of exciting, high-energy kickboxing–unless one of them KOs the other, of course, which is definitely a possibility, though probably a remote one, as they're both tough as a two-dollar steak.

This is a fight where I'm having a hard time getting a read, but I guess I'm sooooooorta leaning Burgos for the reach advantage, the volume, and the power. I guess I'll line Burgos at like -135 or 57%, though I'm not at all confident in that read. (Currently, Burgos is at -171 or 63%. No bet from me here.)

LAUREN MURPHY (ORTH) VS MIESHA TATE (ORTH)

I can't think of any funny angles for this breakdown besides childish and obvious breast implant jokes, and NeverHedge is too classy for that shit, so I'll just get into the actual breakdown. Get your minds out of the gutter, ya donks.

Lauren Murphy largely relies on physical strength and being tougher and grittier than her opponent. She can handle herself wherever the fight goes, but I'd argue that she doesn't really have standout skills anywhere. She's at her best when she can make the fight ugly and can rely on being physically stronger than her opponent. However, I would argue that Tate might be able to match Murphy's strength–or at least pretty close–and she's faster, more agile, and the better fighter pretty much everywhere, as well.

I see this as a pretty tough matchup for Murphy. Murphy has pretty good top control on the ground, but her TDs aren't great. We saw Tate very tentative in her last fight vs Ketlen Vieira, but I think that was largely because of the threat of KV's reach and power. Tate should be able to open up more with her striking with those threats being mostly absent vs Lauren Murphy. (Murphy does have a small reach advantage, but she doesn't bring that big power to scare Tate off.)

I have a hard time seeing where Murphy would be able to find much of an advantage here. I would normally consider fading the "35-year-old fighter who retired and came back" angle, but Murphy is 38–she turns 39 later this month–which is pretty darn ancient for a woman fighting at 125 lbs–especially a woman who readily admits that she isn't and has never been a great athlete. I like Miesha quite a bit here. I'd line the fight Miesha Tate at -200 or 66%. (Currently, Miesha is at -160 or 61%. Definitely gonna put a little something on that.)

PUNAHELE SORIANO (SOUTHPAW) VS DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA (ORTH)

Look, I'm just gonna come right out and say it: Dalcha Lungiambula was created in a lab, and I'm tired of pretending he wasn't. Whichever dork in a white lab coat cooked Dalcha up in a Petrie dish (or however that works) could have injected a little more fight IQ into the ooze, but I digress.

The dude doesn't have the deepest MMA skillset, and he doesn't always make the greatest decisions, but he's a physical freak, and early in the fight, he can be very, very scary. Puna will likely deal with some adversity early here. That's kinda Dalcha's MO. Even when he loses, his aggression coupled with his strength and athleticism make him dangerous early.

Both guys are on a 2-fight losing streak; this could be a "loser leaves town" situation.

Overall, I don't have a great read on this fight, but I trust Puna to be comfortable and conduct himself well in different situations, even if it's not where he wants to be, whereas I feel like Dalcha really struggles when he can't control the fight and can't be where he wants to be. Dalcha can get his judo throws and TDs but struggles to keep anyone down, and Puna is very hard to hold down, as evidenced in the Maximov fight.

I see Dalcha as one of those guys who clearly has distinct physical gifts, but he's likely relied on those gifts to the detriment of the development of a complete and reliable MMA game. The only way I can see Dalcha winning this fight is by KO, and Puna has a great chin and has never been KOed, so I have to lean Puna here. If you like a bet on Dalcha, I think you have to go by KO or ITD. I'll go Puna at -240 or 70%. (Currently, Puna is at -270 or 73%. No bet from me here, at least on the ML. The over or FGTD might be a sneaky prop to take a look at here, as I'm guessing a lot of people will expect a finish here, as both guys are powerful finishers–but both guys are also tough to finish, so I kinda lean toward it going over.

RICKY SIMON (ORTH) VS JACK SHORE (ORTH)

First things first: Ricky Simon has a mullet that could make Kid Rock blush. If Billy Ray Cyrus himself got a look at that Savanna Sleeping Bag, he'd tuck tail and run for the hills. As a former mullet-haver myself back in the '90s, I would not, could not, and WILL NOT bet against a Kentucky Waterfall like that. If you're willing to put your money on the other side of a Mississippi Mudflap of that caliber, you're a braver person than I. I won't be surprised if Jack Shore steps in the ring, gets one look at that glistening Tennessee Tophat up close and opts to offer Simon a "HELL YEAH BROTHER" and a high-five and just head on back to the locker room to think over the choices that led him to this moment.

OK, enough of that. You get the idea.

Shore's striking offense and striking defense both sit at about 60%, which is quite good. Simon has 43% accuracy and 64% defense. Simon averages 6.7 TDs per 15 min, which is absolute insanity. On DWCS, he landed 14 TDs. In his UFC fights since then, he's landed 7 TDs three times and 6 TDs twice. These are crazy numbers.

I think I like Ricky Simon here, but I expect a close fight. Timur Valiev was able to outmuscle Jack Shore in spots, and I think Ricky Simon can likely do the same. If they're tying up and scrambling, they're both good there technically, but Simon is a little fireplug who can likely use his athleticism and sheer horsepower to get the upper hand in those positions. I'm gonna line the fight Ricky Simon -160 or 61%. (Currently, Simon is at…oh wow. Simon is the underdog at +150. I feel like I gotta take a shot on that for sure.)

DUSTIN JACOBY (ORTH) VS DA UN JUNG (ORTH)

Jacoby is a former Glory kickboxer (if memory serves) who is 6-2-1 in the UFC, but both of those losses are from his first UFC stint 10 years ago. He's undefeated in his current stint.

He's comfortable in the pocket. Likes to push forward when he can. Very rooted in his stance and heavy. Open to leg kicks and TDs. Jung goes 8/9 on TDs in the William Knight fight, but he's only attempted 4 TDs total in his other 4 UFC fights combined.

I think this is Jung's fight to lose if he looks to push the wrestling. I also think he hits harder than Jacoby, although Jacoby is the more technical and more credentialed kickboxer. Jung showed in the William Knight fight that he's willing to push the wrestling when he feels that's his best path to victory, and even though he didn't look for TDs vs Kennedy (and he didn't really need to), I think I'm willing to trust him to do that here. If Jung looks to wrestle, I think he should be favored here. If he looks to strike, things could get hairy, but he does hit very hard, and I think the bodylock trip TDs will be there for him if he decides to go that route–which I hope he does. I guess I'd line the fight around Da Un Jung at -150 or 60%. (Currently, Jung is at +125 or 44%. Definitely gonna bet that.)

BILL ALGEO VS HERBERT BURNS (ORTH)

Algeo is very long, uses kind of a loose striking style like you often see from these longer guys. Sideways stance with hands low. Throws punches from his hips. Kinda got that Stephen Thompson thing goin' on, but at a much lower skill level. 

Algeo is a fighter who noticeably slows down mid-rd 2, but he fights through exhaustion well. His strikes get much slower and sloppier, though. He has a solid wrestling background and fairly effective offensive wrestling, but he can be easy to take down, partially because of the way he strikes, where he sort of reaches and throws wildly and puts himself off-balance and out of position.

Ricardo Ramos took Algeo down 8 times in their fight, often with trips and reaps, which are exactly the takedown types with which Herbert Burns excels. He also doesn't mind getting to clinch and just scrambling to the back from there, without even bothering to work for a TD. He also has a slick front choke series, and he'll transition from guillotine to Brabo to anaconda…he has no problem showing off his array of chokes until he finds the one that is your lullaby. However, he's not as good at playing nail as he is at playing hammer. His game can start to fall apart if he throws the kitchen sink at you and continues to meet resistance. And Algeo is nothing if not tough and scrappy. He's a man who will RESIST. But he's also a man who slows down a lot later in the fight and becomes much slower, sloppier, and less dangerous. And this version of Algeo will be even more open to TDs.

This could definitely be a close fight, especially if it goes later, but man…I think I like Herbert Burns here. He should be able to get TDs, and even if he can't control Algeo on the ground for long periods of time, the TDs should be there all night, and Algeo isn't very dangerous past the first rd, as he slows way down and there isn't much sting left on his punches. I'm gonna line Burns at -135 or 57%. (Currently, Burns is at +150 or 40%. Technically, this is a spot I should bet, but I'm not at all confident in my read here, and Burns isn't an especially trustworthy or consistent fighter. Dog or pass for me, but I'll lean pass for now. I'd probably be forced to bet Burns if his number got any better, though.)

DWIGHT GRANT (ORTH) VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS (SWITCH?)

If Jalin Turner is "The Tarantula," Dwight Grant is "All the Tarantulas." Dude is all limbs. If you try to bodykick him, I have it on good authority that your lower leg enters some kind of Schroedinger's Cat-type state because you're launching your leg at something that both does and doesn't exist, and the universe isn't sure how to deal with it.

Dwight Grant's torso is so short that he once stuck his tongue out at a passing bluebird in the dead of winter and his tongue got stuck to his belt buckle like Flick in 'A Christmas Story.'

Dwight Grant's torso is so short that he reaches over his shoulder to pull his wallet out of his pocket.

Dwight Grant's torso is so short that after Marilyn Manson underwent his famous rib-removal procedure, he called Dwight Grant for tips.

I believe Grant is coming up a weight class here, but he's a pretty big WW and Stoltzfus isn't a very big MW, so I don't think that's gonna matter. In fact, Grant will have a small edge in both height and reach here.

I'm not getting much of a read on this fight. I wasted too much time coming up with all those “Dwight Grant’s torso is so short” jokes, and I still have 3 more fights to tape and I'm running out of time, so I'm gonna trust my "I don't know" read here and move on. For me, it feels like a fight in which I'd favor Dustin if I trusted him to push the grappling, but he could be in trouble on the feet.

On paper, I think you could almost make the argument that the UFC is trying to give Dustin a winnable matchup here after making him walk through a pretty tough gauntlet up to this point. I guess I'll go with Dustin Stoltzfus -125 or 55%. (Currently, Dustin is at +125 or 44%. In theory, I should take a shot at that, but I don't feel strongly about my read here, so it's a pass. Close fight. I don't like it. If I have time, I might look into this fight later in the week, as I feel like a more solid read is probably there for the taking; I just haven't found it yet. Feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter if you have a strong read on this fight. I'd love to hear your thoughts!)

JESSICA PENNE (ORTH) VS EMILY DUCOTE (ORTH)

Not sure which way to lean in this one. In the 3 fights I've watched, Emily has only faced 2 or 3 TD attempts, but her TDD looked pretty good. Penne isn't a great TD artist by any means, but she's very good at opportunistically scrambling to the back whenever close enough to clinch. If she's close enough to clinch with you, she'll look to take the back or even scramble to an armbar position. She can find subs from a variety of angles and positions. Very dangerous in that regard. She's comfortable on the feet, but it's not really where she butters her bread. Her punches are straight and accurate, but not a lot of speed and power on them.

Ducote mostly looks to strike in the fights that I've watched, but she does have 4 pro wins by sub–3 RNCs and 1 armbar. Ducote is the better striker and the better wrestler, and she's also a BJJ black belt under a student of Ricardio Liborio, so even if Penne does have the grappling advantage, it's reasonable to expect Ducote to be able to handle herself there, as well. Hard to know how much to take Penne's age into account, as she's 39. I don't know. I'll line this fight something like Ducote -135 or 57%. (Currently, Ducote is at -135. NAILED IT.) No bet.

That’s all, folks! Please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any question or concerns or just wanna shoot the shit. And if you’d like to take a look at my official betting slate and record, you can find those at betmma.tips/erikblock. Thanks, y’all, and good luck on your bets!

-Erik