Hey, gang! Here are my tape study notes for this weekend's UFC card. Some fun fights here; should make for a good time. My video breakdown should be out on the NeverHedge and ErikBetsFights YouTube channels on Wednesday. Please follow me on Twitter @ErikBetsFights, and I hope to talk to you soon! Thanks for reading, everyone, and good luck on your bets!
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STEPHEN THOMPSON (SWITCH) VS KEVIN HOLLAND (ORTH)
Stephen Thompson is now 39 years old, and I feel like he's kinda reached a point where his game hasn't evolved with the sport. He employs a karate-based counterstriking style that is very reliant on speed and reaction time, both of which tend to be among the first things to fade when a fighter is getting up there in age.
Kevin Holland is massive for the division and is reasonably well-rounded. He's a solid grappler, but he doesn't often look to take opponents down. He will have 3 inches of height and 6 inches of reach here. Looking to strike on the outside is giving Thompson exactly the fight he wants, though it's arguably a fight Holland could win with his incredible size and reach.
Holland is a fighter who embraces wild, chaotic striking exchanges at times, and Stephen Thompson's precise and accurate counterstriking tends to make those exchanges an ill-advised proposition. However, using chaotic pocket exchanges to close distance and clinch or look for TDs so Wonderboy can't get his kicks and distance strikes going could be effective.
Overall, I feel like this is Holland's fight to lose if he employs a smart gameplan–which, to be fair, he doesn't always do. But as long as he looks to stay in Thompson's face, make him uncomfortable, and look to clinch up and stifle Thompson's movement, he should be able to use his size and grappling to get a win here. (It's probably more likely that Holland will take the path of MOST resistance and strike at distance with Wonderboy, which is still a fight he might be able to win.)
I'll line the fight Holland -140 or 58%, but I'm not super confident in that read. (Admittedly, I'm also taking Thompson's age into account here, as his style is one that could be profoundly affected by even a slight decline in speed and reaction time.) (Currently, Holland sits at -138, so no perceived value there, but I might bet him here anyway. Not sure yet.) (UPDATE: I ended up betting Holland at -125.)
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (SOUTHPAW) VS BRYAN BARBERENA (SOUTHPAW)
I think it's fair to call Rafael Dos Anjos a legend of the sport at this point. His path in the Octagon has been a bit reminiscent of that of his countryman, Charles Oliveira. RDA's first few years in the UFC were spotty, as he lost his first two Octagon appearances and ultimately went 4-4 in his first 8 before hitting his stride with an 11-fight run in which he lost only once–to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is a true mixed martial artist, with high-level skills in all areas of the game and an impressive ability to transition between phases. When he's "on," he's truly a joy to behold, and even at 38 years old, he's still pretty "on."
Bryan Barberena is a classic example of a fighter who's tough and scrappy and can pose some danger, but no one's gonna accuse him of being a technical marvel. He made his way to the UFC with a 9-2 regional record but no real "signature win" (unless you count Dane "The Red Horse" Sayers–may he rest in peace). Barberena does enter this fight on a 3-fight win streak, and not to take anything away from his performances, but the devil is the details here, as those wins are over a faded Robbie Lawler, a faded Matt Brown, and Darian Weeks in his UFC debut. Had two of those fights happened earlier and one of them happened later, he likely would have lost all three.
One thing that Barberena does really well is gritty combination striking in the pocket. He trusts his chin enough to just bite down on his mouthpiece and exchange strikes in the pocket with anyone. And he mixes it up nicely in that range, too, throwing straight punches, hooks, uppercuts–even elbows.
I don't have much more to say about this fight. RDA is the much better technical fighter everywhere. The only real advantage I can see for Barberena is that he's five years younger, but RDA has looked damn good in his last few outings, so unless he's suddenly hit a precipitous dropoff, I don't think the age will be a huge factor. I did see odds for this fight a while back, and while I don't remember what they were exactly, RDA was (not surprisingly) a big favorite–and might be an even bigger favorite now. I'll line the fight RDA -300 or 75%. (Currently, RDA sits at -500. I personally won't touch that, but he should win here, barring anything unforeseen. He's just the much better fighter.)
MATHEUS NICOLAU (ORTH) VS MATT SCHNELL
I suck at capping flyweight fights. Heck, I suck at even remembering who flyweights are. Matheus Nicolau has fought in the UFC ten times if you count his TUF fights, but when I saw he was fighting, my brain was like, "Nah, never heard of him." So don't put too much stock into anything I say about this fight (or any flyweight fight), deal?
I tried to watch Nicolau's Dvorak fight, but HOLY SHIT IS THAT FIGHT HARD TO WATCH. They literally circle and stare at each other for the whole first round. UFCstats.com claims they landed a total of 18 strikes combined in the first round, but I think it was probably closer to…3.
Nicolau is 6-1 in the UFC (8-2 if you count TUF). He's a BJJ black belt with some interesting submissions in his arsenal, but most of his wins at the higher level have come by decision.
Matt Schnell has had mixed results, showing a 6-5 UFC record. One thing that stands out to me is that the guy is an absolute dog. If you don't remember his fight with Sumudaerji, go back and watch it right now. It was awesome. He's a guy who will absolutely fight for your money. Schnell is a slick opportunistic grappler with a bunch of subs on his record, but he doesn't typically look to push the grappling; rather, he takes it if it's there. On the feet, he throws crisp, hard punches, but he also tends to leave his chin kinda high, and he can be quite hittable.
I spent a fair amount of time taping these guys and was finding that I just wasn't getting a strong read, so I decided to throw in the towel and move on. I believe I remember seeing that Nicolau is a pretty big fav here, so let's have a look at the odds. (Currently, Nicolau sits at -380 or 79%. That seems awfully wide to me. Schnell certainly has his liabilities, but he's also got that dog in him. I don't have a strong enough read here to feel compelled to bet Schnell at +315, but if I was gonna bet this fight, I'd be looking toward the dog.)
TAI TUIVASA (ORTH) VS SERGEI PAVLOVICH (ORTH)
This is an interesting matchup, as you could say that each of these guys will be trying to beat his opponent at his opponent's own game. They have 23 first-round finishes between them, so it's no secret what that game is exactly: get your opponent out of there as quickly as possible.
Tai Tuivasa has a reputation as a bit of a brawler, but I think that has more to do with his look and personality at this point than anything else. He may have been a brawler earlier in his career, but look no further than the Ciryl Gane fight for evidence that Tai is quite capable of putting together a mature, intelligent, and patient striking performance against one of the best strikers in UFC HW history. Tai is surprisingly athletic, moves well, and reacts well to his opponent's movements. Though he was eventually finished by Gane, he showed an impressive ability to cut off the cage and control the action, and he also hurt Gane several times, even knocking him down in the second round. He will be at a size disadvantage here, especially in the reach, where Pavlovich's 84" reach (the longest reach in the UFC currently, unless you still consider Jon Jones to be part of the roster) dwarfs the 75" reach of Tuivasa.
When watching tape, I initially thought that Tai could have success with leg kicks here, but if you watch Pavlovich's fight with Maurice Greene, Greene is landing leg kicks, but Pav is able to counter with a punch pretty much every time. My guess is that if Tai is close enough to land a calf kick, Pav is probably close enough to counter with a punch.
It's difficult to get much of a read on just how good of a striker Pavlovich really is, simply because he sparks everyone out of there so quickly. I think Tai might be the better technical striker, but Pavlovich's reach, speed, explosiveness, and power make him an awful tough customer to handle in there.
This is a difficult fight to call. Tai's success against Gane makes me want to lean his way, but Gane doesn't offer the same type of "blink and it's over" danger that Pavlovich offers. Pav's game is to throw out single or double strikes here and there until he lands something that hurts you, and then he explodes forward with a flurry that puts you away. So far, it's worked for him consistently at the UFC level. I've already seen the odds, so I know Pav is favored here–he currently sits at -200 or 67%, with the comeback on Tai at +170 or 37%. I think I would line the fight more closely than that. I see it as almost a coinflip, so I think there's some value on Tai at +170. I'm gonna sit back for now to see if/how the line moves and also take a look at the props when they drop. I may end up getting to a bet on Tai Tuivasa here, either his moneyline, his KO prop, or even a little on both. We shall see.) (UPDATE: Tuivasa by KO dropped at +275. I don't mind that, but not sure if I'll bet it. Probably not.)
ROMAN DOLIDZE (SOUTHPAW) VS JACK HERMANSSON (ORTH)
I'm still not quite sure what to make of Roman Dolidze. The guy is clearly big and strong and powerful, and he's produced round-1 KOs in his last two fights…but I still just don't think he's very…ya know…GOOD. He's got some slick skills off his back, and if he catches you on the feet, it can be big trouble, but he just looks very slow and labored and uncoordinated in the standup realm. The guy is 5-1 in the UFC, but I just don't see him as the kind of prospect we'd normally expect someone to be after putting together a record that looks that nice. (Granted, he could still prove me wrong.) If he can't find a big moment in a fight, I don't see him as someone who's a very good minute-winner, especially not against a fighter like Jack Hermansson.
Hermansson is a pretty well-rounded fighter. He's largely been showing off his grappling in recent fights, but he showed in the Chris Curtis fight that he's more than capable of using footwork and kicks to stick and move and keep an opponent at bay. As a grappler, he shows decent wrestling skills and solid opportunistic submission skills, as well.
What I struggle with here is whether Hermansson will look to grapple with Dolidze or whether he'll want to keep this on the feet. I think Jack is the more consistent and more technical striker, but Dolidze is more than capable of landing a big bomb at any time. Similarly, Jack is likely the better all-around grappler, but if he's able to take Dolidze down and keep him there, Dolidze is arguably more dangerous off his back than in any other grappling position.
I think I do like Jack Hermansson to win here, but he'll be dealing with consistent danger the entire time, so it's hard to be too confident. I'm gonna lean Hermansson, but only slightly. I'll line the fight Jack Hermansson -135 or 57%. (Currently, Hermansson can be had for -175 or 63%, with Dolidze at +150 or 40%. That line is nearing a point where I wouldn't mind a shot on Dolidze, but honestly, with the way he fights and the dynamic I see in this matchup, I'd prefer to wait and see what Dolidze's ITD prop looks like. If he wins here, I think it's likely a finish.) (UPDATE: Dolidze ITD dropped at +250. Not bad, but I don't think it's enough for me to jump on it. Good luck if you do.)
ERYK ANDERS (SOUTHPAW) VS KYLE DAUKAUS (SOUTHPAW)
I mean no disrespect, but Eryk Anders just isn't very good. He's big and strong for 185, but he seems to have just kind of relied on being a big, strong guy, and it hasn't served him particularly well at the UFC level. He has power, but his hands are slow, and he can be outmaneuvered and countered by a quicker fighter. According to MMA By the Numbers (great podcast; check it out if you haven't), Eryk Anders has statistically some of the worst striking output and efficiency in UFC history. I don't mean to oversimplify, but Anders's game is basically just push forward and throw big punches and then clinch you against the cage.
I feel like the jury's still out on Kyle Daukaus. I expected him to beat Roman Dolidze pretty handily, and as a -250 favorite, it seems most everyone agreed. Instead, though, he got sparked out in just over a minute. It can happen to anyone, sure. And also, Roman Dolidze might be turning out to be better than we all thought, but I digress. Daukaus is a pretty decent technical striker and a solid grappler with good submissions, especially from the front headlock position. Dude has like 6 D'arce chokes on his record. I think Daukaus is, technically speaking, a better fighter than Eryk Anders, arguably everywhere. Anders should have a physicality advantage, but I don't see much else going for him here. He could potentially catch Daukaus on the feet and put him out, of course, but I don't see that as particularly likely. Anders will likely be looking for TDs and putting himself in positions where Daukaus can get that dangerous front-headlock series going. I like Daukaus here, though it's hard to favor him too heavily. I'll go Daukaus -175 or 63%. (Currently, Daukaus sits at -200 or 67%. No bet from me here at the moment, but I'll be interested to see Daukaus's sub prop when it drops.) (UPDATE: Daukaus by sub dropped at +315. Hmm. I don't mind that.)
NIKO PRICE (ORTH) VS PHILIP ROWE (ORTH)
Niko Price is a difficult fighter to get a read on. He's one of those guys where I always think "Oh, he's not very good," and then I watch the tape and think, "OK, he might be better than I was thinking." He's not especially athletically gifted, except in the power department. He's foot-slow, not very agile, and his strikes aren't particularly quick and snappy, but he was born with that sweet, sweet "death touch," and he doesn't need to land an especially impressive-looking blow to put your lights out. For evidence, look no further than his wild-ass hammerfists-off-his-back KO of Randy Brown back in 2018. Not a lot of fighters can muster fight-ending power from that position. He can be a bit inconsistent on the feet, as he tends to rely on that power, looking to land something big that hurts his opponent rather than trying to win minutes. He does mix up his punches and kicks pretty well on the feet, and though he does slow down as the fight wears in, he still throws with power (though he can kinda look like he's punching through a wall of molasses late in the fight, so he has trouble landing, especially against a more athletic opponent such as Phil Rowe. Overall, I would argue that Niko Price is that rare fighter whose game is actually MORE than the sum of its parts. Nothing he does looks especially impressive, and it probably shouldn't work, but it often does.
Phil Rowe will enjoy a pretty significant size advantage here, with 3" of height and 5" of reach. He should also have a significant advantage in overall athleticism, including speed and agility. Niko might have the power advantage, but Rowe has pretty good power, too. Phil should be able to use lateral movement to remain a tough target to track down, while landing his long, quick strikes on Niko, who will likely be struggling to keep up. Neither guy tends to lean on his grappling too much, but either could look to wrestle if they don't like how it's going on the feet. Overall, I see a lot of advantages for Phil Rowe here. I've already seen the odds for this fight, and I believe Rowe was a small underdog. If that's still the case, I'll be betting him here. (Currently, Phil Rowe can be had for +121 or 45%. I'm putting a unit on that.)
ANGELA HILL (ORTH) VS EMILY DUCOTE
This is an interesting matchup and is a pretty tough fight to call. Angela Hill is well-known by MMA fans at this point, as the woman with more UFC fights than any other woman in the world. With a 9-12 UFC record, her results have been mixed at best, but she's a tough out for anyone. In her last fight, she showed a fantastically well-rounded game in dispatching the heavily favored Lupita Godinez.
Ducote has plied her trade largely as a striker, but she is a BJJ black belt and sports a background as a standout wrestler, as well. On paper, Ducote should have the grappling and wrestling edge, but Hill has really shown improvements in those areas. Both women have above-average TDD, and I do expect that this fight will play out mostly on the feet (though we'll likely see some clinching and cage-pushing along the way). The difference that stands out most to me in their standup games is simply in the movement and dynamism. Ducote tends to be very flat-footed. She plants her feet and shuffles forward, without much lateral movement–or movement of any kind, really. Hill, on the other hand, is more dynamic, using lateral movement and shifting in and out of range. Hill's style might look better to the judges, but Ducote will undoubtedly find spots to land big counters as Hill moves in on her.
I feel I'd be remiss to discuss this fight without discussing a couple intangibles that stand out, namely Hill's age (37 vs. 28 for Ducote), and Hill's experience level (21 UFC fights for Hill vs. just 1 for Ducote–though she did also fight in Bellator 8 times). It's always difficult to know how much to take those things into account, but they're something to consider, anyway. Overall, I see this as a very close fight. I want to favor Hill slightly, but I'm expecting this to be lined pretty closely. I'll go Angela Hill -120 or 54%. (Currently, Hill can be had for +105 or 48%. Not confident enough in anything here to bet it at the moment. I don't expect this line will move much, but I'll be keeping an eye on it just in case.)
CLAY GUIDA VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN (ORTH)
The first thing I think of when I think of Scott Holtzman is how freakin' BIG and JACKED this dude is for 155 lbs. He's only 5'9", but he's practically got the frame of a middleweight in there. (Actually, I lied: the first thing I think of is my ex-girlfriend ogling him like a well-marbled steak when we attended the McDonald vs. Lineker event in Sioux Falls in 2016, but that's neither here nor there.) He's 7-5 in the UFC, but his wins are mostly decisions and are mostly against forgettable fighters who are no longer with the promotion. He's your typical fighter with some skills everywhere, but nothing really stands out and he's just kinda…well…much like the opponents he's beaten in the Octagon (other than Jim Miller, of course), he's forgettable.
Clay Guida is truly a man who needs no introduction. With over 30 fights in the promotion, Guida has never quite broken through to the very elite level, but he's always been a tough out for anyone. Guida has always been known for his infinite gastank and constant movement, and even at 40 years old, that hasn't changed. He's a whirling dynamo of constant movement that can be very difficult to figure out. He's also a solid wrestler who will use his TDs when he feels it's his best path.
Honestly, gang, I'm not sure what to do with this fight. Holztman will certainly be the bigger, more powerful guy, but he can't match Guida's speed and movement. If the fight plays out largely in clinching and grappling situations, I think Guida could struggle with Hot Sauce's size and strength, but on the feet, I could see Guida playing matador and just staying on his bike and landing punches when he can. I'm gonna cop out and call it a coinflip; really not sure what I'm gonna find with these lines, but here we go. (Currently, Holtzman sits at -146 or 59%, with Guida at +126 or 44%. Not interested in that at the moment. I'd maybe consider Guida if that line gets any wider, but Holtzman's size and strength do concern me. Both of these guys go to decision quite a bit, so I might consider the over 2.5 at -215 as a parlay piece.)
MICHAEL JOHNSON (SOUTHPAW) VS MARC DIAKIESE (ORTH)
Simply put, Michael Johnson has been in the UFC forever and has fought everyone. He's beaten some very good fighters and lost to some not-so-good fighters. At his best, he's a quick-handed striker with KO power in his hands, and at his worst, he just kinda…can't seem to put it all together. After 12 years in the promotion, he sits at a UFC record of 12-14, going an unimpressive 3-7 in his last 10.
If I were writing this a year ago, I'd be referring to Marc Diakiese as a kickboxer, but we've seen the emergence of Diakiese-ov in his last 2 fights. Homie scored 11 TDs against Slava and 8 against Damir Hadzovic. This is notable because he scored more TDs in his 2 outings than in his previous 10 UFC fights combined. He's always had sneaky wrestling skills, but he seems to have finally embraced the idea of actually using them consistently in the cage. And his natural strength and athleticism really help to make him a pain in the ass to deal with on the mat.
Michael Johnson does show a solid 79% TDD and was able to hold even Khabib to only 2 completed TDs on 6 attempts, so if we do see Diakiese-ov here again, getting MJ down won't necessarily be a walk in the park. But I think even the threat of the TD will help to set up success for Diakiese on the feet, even if the fight does mostly play out there. Michael Johnson isn't someone to be counted out in this fight, but most of the advantages definitely seem to be in Bonecrusher's corner. I think Diakiese should comfortably win this fight at least ⅔ of the time, so I'll line it Diakiese -200 or 67%, though I expect he might be an even wider favorite than that. (Currently, Marc Diakiese sits at -260 or 72%. I tend to line fights pretty conservatively, and honestly, I'm mostly fine with -260. I'll probably throw Bonecrusher in a parlay before that gets any wider.)
DARREN ELKINS (ORTH) VS JONATHAN PEARCE (ORTH)
Before tape, I looked at this matchup and thought, "JSP should absolutely smash Elkins and will be a huge favorite." After tape….I'm not so sure. JSP is bigger, younger, and probably the better technical fighter, but Elkins is just such a goddamn dog. If JSP can get TDs and work from top, this is his fight all day, but here's the thing: what if Elkins gets TDs? What if Elkins spends some time on top, landing strikes, and wearing on JSP, slowing him down? If he can do that and it turns into a battle of attrition, well, that's the kind of fight in which Elkins is tough to beat.
On the feet, they're both pretty slow and kinda awkward, though JSP is arguably less so. Elkins is by far the more aggressive of the two, and it's reasonable to expect him to be in JSP's face, taking the fight to him, from the moment the bell rings. Sure, it was 3 years ago and was his UFC debut, but let's not forget that JSP did fall victim to that early pressuring style in his round-1 loss to Joe Lauzon.
I am expecting to find JSP as a big favorite here, especially given Elkins' age and the many, many fight miles on his body, but I'm struggling with how to line this fight. I'm gonna go with JSP at -185 or 65%, but I'm expecting to potentially find him as a much bigger favorite than that. I'm just really struggling to envision how this fight will/could play out. (Currently, JSP sits at -450 or 82%. I was thinking maybe I'd find him at -300 or so, but I wasn't expecting that all. Elkins sits at +350 or 22%. Maybe I'm crazy, but I think this fight has the potential to play out closely, and I think Elkins has a better shot to win than that. I'm gonna hang back for now, as that line might get even better, but I may have to take a shot on Elkins if his line gets even better. I've been losing a bunch of underdog shots lately, so I'm hesitant to pull the trigger here, but I really think Elkins is potentially being undervalued in this spot.)
TRACY CORTEZ (ORTH) VS AMANDA RIBAS (ORTH)
I like this matchup. Cortez and Ribas are both promising up-and-comers at 125, and it'll be interesting to see which one can better exploit the other's weaknesses here. They both do their best work in the grappling realm but have also clearly put the work in to level up their striking games since stepping up to the big show.
Ribas tends to be more aggressive and consistent on the feet than Cortez, who can struggle to get her standup game going, especially against an opponent who will keep her on the back foot–which is something Ribas does pretty well. As for grappling, Cortez's background is primarily in wrestling, whereas Ribas has black belts in both judo and BJJ, having grown up in a martial arts family with a father who taught judo, BJJ, and Muay Thai.
With her judo background, I would expect Ribas to potentially have the upperhand in clinching situations, but Cortez does time TDs well in open space, which is what I think she'll want to do here. Ribas is active and dangerous off her back, but we did recently see Cortez survive long spells on top against Melissa Gatto, who consistently attempted subs to no avail in their fight. Ribas does show an impressive 88% TDD, but she has yet to face a wrestler of Cortez's caliber.
I do see this as a close fight, but I expect Cortez should be able to find TDs here and spend time on top. No doubt she'll have to mind her P's and Q's in defending Ribas's sub attempts (while looking to land GNP when she can), but as long as she can stay out of any armbars or triangles coming her way, she should be able to wrestle her way to a decision in typical Tracy Cortez fashion. I would line the fight closely, though, as Ribas is dangerous, and I expect her to potentially get the better of the striking for as long as they remain standing. I'll line the fight Tracy Cortez -125 or 55%. (Currently, Cortez can be had for +110 or 47%. If my read is correct, there's value there, but I think I'm gonna go with the old "bet favorites early and underdogs late" advice and see if this line gets any better. If I get like +125 on Cortez, I'll jump in.) (UPDATE: I did end up betting Tracy Cortez at +110 on William Hill, as the line appeared to be moving the other way on other books.)
NATAN LEVY (SOUTHPAW) VS GENARO VALDEZ (ORTH)
I'm not quite sure where I stand on Natan Levy. At times, he looks pretty good, but I don't think I'm sold on him yet. On the feet, he tends to move backwards and kinda stay on the back foot, but he's got some power, and he throws nice kicks–leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks, even cheeky little hook kicks and spinning kicks at times. His wrestling looks pretty good when he decides to use it, and he does have quite a few submissions on his record, both at the pro level and the amateur level. He's also buff af and has a pretty badass Tapology pic, for whatever those are worth. He does tend to slow down a bit, but he fights through exhaustion pretty well.
Genaro Valdez is a tough fighter to get a read on. He's very aggressive and is quite willing to embrace wild exchanges in the clinch. He fought mostly low-level competition on his way up, but even in his DWCS fight and his UFC debut vs. Matt Frevola, he fought in a very wild and aggressive style that doesn't tend to hold up well at the highest level. He's certainly dangerous in that first round, capable of finding a KO or a submission, but how will he hold up if the fight goes long against a higher-level competitor?
Levy tends to start slow, and he can absolutely be backed up and overwhelmed, so the first round could be dicey, but I think Valdez will empty his gas tank early and the longer the fight goes, the more it will favor Natan Levy. Genaro Valdez is a fun action fighter, but I don't see him going very far at the UFC level. As the more technical and poised fighter, Levy should be favored here, but a sprinkle on Valdez to finish in round 1 might not be a bad idea if there's a good number on it. I'll line the fight Natan Levy -180 or 64%. (Currently, Levy sits at -185 or 65%. No interest in a bet there.)
FRANCIS MARSHALL (ORTH) VS MARCELO ROJO (ORTH/SWITCH)
"The Fire" is a great nickname for Francis Marshall (even though Elliott Marshall did it first), as he truly fights like a wildfire, putting a pace on opponents that few can keep up with. He appears to have a pretty well-rounded skillset, and he transitions well between phases, moving seamlessly from punching combos to TD attempts and everything in between. If you don't count the 24-30 (at the time - he's 24-34 now; poor guy is on a 14-fight losing streak) Rey Trujillo (who is, interestingly, the only opponent Francis didn't finish by rear-naked choke), Francis Marshall's pre-Contender Series opponents show average MMA records of 3.5-2, so he's clearly faced low-level competition and didn't really pick up a signature win on his way to the big show. He does exhibit a pretty well-rounded skillset in the cage, but his youth and inexperience definitely show, as he tends to really MUSCLE everything, throwing his all into every strike and TD attempt, with little concern for energy conservation.
His boxing is pretty rudimentary, and he does tend to hold his chin rather high, but he brings the kind of pace and aggression that can make up for some technical deficiencies against a certain level of fighter.
So, the million dollar question: is Marcel Rojo that level of fighter? I think he might be.
The tape I watched on Rojo didn't really impress me. He seems solid enough everywhere, but he's one of those fighters that just doesn't seem to stand out anywhere. He has a more-or-less equal number of wins by KO as by submission, so he's clearly pretty comfortable fighting wherever the fight goes. I liked what I saw from Marshall more than what I saw from Rojo, but it's important to bear in mind that this represents a huge step up in competition for the 23-year-old Marshall. Marcel Rojo is no world-beater, but he does sport a 16-8 record after more than a decade fighting as a pro. Even if you don't think highly of Rojo, that's a far cry from the guys Francis Marshall was beating up in the regionals.
Even so, I think Marshall looks promising, and I think the UFC would like to see him get a win. I don't think they'd shed a tear if Rojo drops his 3rd straight here and gets his walking papers; there are enough "Pitbulls" on the roster at any given time that we can afford to send one packing. The experience gap does worry me a little, but I do favor Francis Marshall to be able to pressure Rojo, find TDs, and never really let him settle into his striking game. I'll line the fight Francis Marshall -135 or 57%. (Currently, Francis Marshall sits at -181 or 64%. Not interested in that moneyline, but Rojo has been finished in 6 of 8 losses, and Marshall has finished 4 of his 6 wins. Maybe a sub prop or ITD prop will be worth a look.)
YAZMIN JAUREGUI (ORTH) VS ISTELA NUNES (ORTH)
I'll keep this short. I've already seen the odds for this fight, so I know Yazmin is a pretty big favorite, and I don't really understand why. This fight will likely play out like a Muay Thai match and, while Yazmin is arguably a little more powerful and aggressive, I think they're on a pretty similar level otherwise. Nunes can sometimes be a little tentative, pumping out feints but not pulling the trigger enough, whereas Yazmin does a pretty good job of applying consistent pressure and putting out consistent volume. On paper, their offensive striking numbers are pretty similar, with Nunes throwing less but landing at a higher clip. Nunes does have one inch of height and two inches of reach, but I don't know that those will be pronounced enough to make a big difference here. I can understand Yazmin Jauregui being a favorite here, but I'd probably line the fight something like Yazmin -140 or 58%. (Yazmin currently sits at -318 or 76%, with Nunes at +268 or 27%. I do expect Yazmin to win here, but there's too much value on that +268 to not take a small shot here, in my opinion.) (UPDATE: I found Nunes at +300 on William Hill. Not passing that up.)
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