Erik's UFC Paris Tape Study Notes

Hey, y’all! It’s been a little while since I’ve put my written breakdowns out, so there might be a little rust to knock off, but here we are! If this is your first time reading my tape study notes, I sort of approach them in a stream-of-consciousness way as I’m watching the tape. I don’t look at the lines ahead of time so that I’m able to set my own line and then compare it to the existing line. As always, please hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or just wanna blab about fights a little. Have a great week, and good luck on your bets!

CIRYL GANE (ORTH) VS TAI TUIVASA

I want to get this out of the way early: I've been willing to go on the record for a long time now that I think when everything is said and done, there's an excellent chance that Ciryl Gane will be recognized as one of the greatest (if not THE greatest) heavyweight mixed martial artists of all time. I think he has a combination of size, skill, and agility/athleticism that doesn't come along very often, and at only 32 years old, he's still potentially got quite a few years in the sport ahead of him. 

That said, even as a hefty -600 favorite, that doesn't mean a win over Tai Tuivasa here is a foregone conclusion. Not by a longshot. Homie's not 8-3 in the UFC and on a 5-fight win streak against increasingly better competition by accident. It's easy to write Tuivasa off as little more than a brawler with one or two good tricks up his sleeve, but I think there's more to him than that. He doesn't necessarily have the deepest of toolboxes, but he does the things he does very well. One of those "you know what he wants to do, but that doesn't mean you can stop him" kinda things. And, in any match-up, Tuivasa's fight-ending power always looms large in the conversation. 

There's no doubt that Gane will have many advantages in this fight, and his hefty pricetag reflects that. Gane is incredibly fleet of foot for such a massive man, and he has the ability to stay on the outside and plug away with tight technical kickboxing until the cows come home. I think Tuivasa will have trouble getting at Gane in open space, so it's reasonable to expect Tai to look to work in the clinch, which he does very well. 

One thing that's important to note is that Tuivasa has only gone to decision twice in his career–and those were 3-rd fights. He's never seen the "championship" rds. Does this mean we see him take a slower-paced and more measured approach so he can last all 25 mins if necessary? Hard to say, but I think he'll struggle late in the fight even if he does actively look to preserve his gastank, and we know Gane can fight 5 hard rds. 

I don't think there's much sense in playing Gane at -600, even in parlays. Tai is dangerous enough to make that a risk I'm not personally willing to take. And if you're interested in playing Tai, I think you have to play him by KO. In fact, if I were going to get creative on this fight, I'd potentially sprinkle Tai's props for rd-1 KO and rd-2 KO, and then potentially look to play late-rd props on Gane (or even Gane 3,4,5, decision if you have access to something like that). I think the most likely way this fight plays out is Gane looks to stay light on his feet and use his movement to keep distance early, when Tai is most dangerous, and then opens up more as Tai slows down, with Gane eventually finding a late finish, let's say rd 4. 

ROBERT WHITTAKER (ORTH) VS MARVIN VETTORI (SOUTHPAW)

I went into the tape for this fight expecting that Whittaker would probably be a decent-sized favorite but that Vettori might be a pretty live dog. After the tape, I believed Whittaker should be a decent-sized fav, and I certainly wouldn't count Vettori out, but I didn't end up liking a bet on him, even in the +200 range. But I also wonder if my opinion is being colored at all by the general consensus that seems to have persisted for quite a while that Whittaker is the second-best fighter in the division, sort of playing that role that fighters like Jon Fitch, Rich Franklin, and Joseph Benavidez have played in the past, where they're a step above the rest of the division but can't quite beat the champ. 

These two have very similar striking stats, with both sitting around 4.4 landed and 3.4 absorbed. Both guys have pretty good 5-rd cardio. Marv is still swinging hard and shooting TDs in rd 5 vs Paulo Costa. 

In the end, I feel like this fight will come down to Whittaker being the slicker, more technical striker. Vettori will look to be aggressive and I suspect Whittaker will have success countering him. Either guy could potentially look to wrestle, though I don't necessarily expect to see a lot of that. Vettori averages more than 2 TDs per 15 min, and Whittaker averages only 0.8. I think Whittaker has better TDD, though, and I think he's also probably the better offensive wrestler. 

I think Vettori would need to KO Whittaker to win (or at least hurt him consistently), and while Vettori does have pretty good power, he's not a big KO puncher. Also, Whittaker has only been finished by strikes twice in 29 fights, and those were against Stephen Thompson and Israel Adesanya. And, well, Marvin Vettori isn't exactly either of those guys, with all due respect, of course. 

I need to do more research here, as I don't feel like I have a super confident read on this fight, but I'm gonna line it Robert Whittaker -200 or 66%. (Currently, Vettori is at -235 or about 70%. I don't love that line, but I wonder if that'll get even wider. Lately, I've been pulling the trick of dropping a decent-sized bet on a favorite when I think the line will get wider and present a hedge-out opportunity. I did that with Romanov/Tybura. I wonder if that might work again here? Just a thought. I think I'm gonna stay out for now. If I was gonna bet Vettori here, I think I'd be looking toward his KO prop, as it's hard to see him winning a decision. But it's hard to see him getting a KO, too, so…)

ALESSIO DI CHIRICO (ORTH) VS ROMAN KOPYLOV (SOUTHPAW)

I don't have much of a read on this fight. (I know I say that a lot, but hey, better than bullshitting you and pretending I do, right?) Both guys have somewhat similar styles on the feet, I think. Pretty low-volume. Not very aggressive. Kopylov's hands look a little faster, but Di Chirico looks like he might carry a little more power. Di Chirico might also have the better cardio. Neither guy looks to wrestle a ton, but Di Chirico does average 1.62 TDs per 15 min, and he's taken down 5 of his 10 UFC opponents at least once. Not confident, but I guess I gotta lean Alessio Di Chirico slightly, for the experience edge (both overall and the UFC level), the wrestling/grappling upside, and a potential cardio advantage. I'll line it Di Chirico -140 or 58%. (Currently, Di Chirico is at -120 or 54%. No interest in a bet on this one at the moment. I really just have no interest in this fight at all.)

NASRAT HAQPARAST (SOUTHPAW) VS JOHN MAKDESSI (ORTH)

These guys both have similar offensive striking stats and decent volume, with each attempting about 10-11 SS/M and landing more than 5. Makdessi lands at a 6% higher clip, and they both show striking defense of about 66%. Both guys are more than happy to do all their work on the feet, with Makdessi having landed ZERO TDs in 18 UFC fights (11-7), and Haqparast having landed ONE TD in 9 UFC fights (5-4). I didn't see much in the tape that had me confidently leaning toward one guy to win, except that Makdessi does seem to have the more pronounced one-punch power. So if the tape isn't helping us much, we can go the Gianni the Greek route, which leads me to conclude that it's hard to ignore that Haqparast is the southpaw, he has a 4-inch reach advantage, and he's 10 years younger. Not super confident in this, but I'll lean Haqparast slightly based largely on those advantages. I'll line the fight Haqparast -150 or 60%, but I won't be at all surprised if the line is very different from that–in either direction, really–as I don't have much of a read on this one. (Currently, Nasrat Haqparast is at -215 or 68%, with the comeback on Makdessi at +185 or 35%. Man, I don't know. That almost seems worth a shot. I might have to take a stab at Mak if he gets to like +200. We'll see.)

WILLIAM GOMIS (SOUTHPAW) VS JARNO ERRENS (ORTH)

I was expecting William Gomis to be almost an Anderson Silva or Izzy Adesanya type of striker, just based on his stance and his early movement in the cage, but I actually found that I was more impressed with his clinching and GNP than with his striking. He's clearly got some natural athleticism, but when he lets loose with his striking, he tends to put himself out of position and off-balance with the big kicks and punches he throws. He actually looks pretty green at times in the open-space striking. He seems to really like working in the clinch, and he does well there. He likes to get in on the bodylock and work with knees to the legs and body. He's also capable of very suddenly unleashing an unexpected double- or single-leg shot in open space. He's capable of aggressive and vicious GNP from top position. 

Jarno Errens seems, from the limited footage I watched, to be pretty well-rounded. His striking looks pretty good, with a nice, straight 1-2, and he covers distance quickly in the striking. He's also capable of some nice, high-octane judo throws in close, and he's very active off his back and good in scrambles. Gomis does seem like the better wrestler and may have more ability to dictate the pace of the fight and where it takes place, so that's important to keep in mind. 

This is a tough fight to call, and I don't really have a strong lean either way. I don't wanna get too far into Man of the Library territory here, but I do think it's interesting that this fight between newcomers, one of which is a local boy, has been put on the main card. Does the UFC want Gomis to get a win in front of his countrymen? I don't know, but something to consider. 

To me, the fight almost feels like a coinflip, so I'm gonna cop out and line it right around -110 each. (Currently….oh wow. Gomis is at -215 or 68%. Can't say I saw anything in the tape that leads me to believe he should be a big fav like that. If anything, I might have been slightly more impressed by what I saw from Errens–though his tendency to settle in and work off his back, coupled with Gomis's vicious GNP, is a little concerning. But yeah, I'm gonna keep an eye on this one. I might have to do a little more tape on these guys and determine whether Errens is a decent investment, especially if his number gets any better. I personally wouldn't trust Gomis at that number.)

CHARLES JOURDAIN (SWITCH) VS NATHANIEL WOOD (ORTH)

I don't feel like I have much insight to offer on this matchup, so I'm gonna keep it short: I think Jourdain is simply the more violent man here, for what that's worth. Wood likely wins rd 1 and Jourdain likely wins rd 3. This could be a fight that comes down to rd 2. 

Wood does throw and land with slightly more volume according to the available stats, and he'll be the smaller man here, despite the tale of the tape showing them both with a 69" reach. Jourdan did open around -200 and can be had for as low as -135 now, for whatever that's worth. I'm just gonna call it good there, as I don't know what to do with this one, so I won't pretend I do. Keep an eye out for Kyle's write-up and Manny's video, as they'll probably have better insight for you on this fight. :)

DUSTIN STOLTZFUS (ORTH) VS ABUSIPYAN MAGOMEDOV(ORTH)

Dustin Stoltzfus isn't especially quick or athletic. He's a bit of a flat-footed plodder, but he's able to make it work for him. Against faster, more athletic fighters, he's pretty reliant on the TD to get the win, as his standup is pretty slow and rigid, and his footwork isn't great. This is a fight where I think pretty much every advantage is on one side. Magomedov is bigger, faster, more powerful, more aggressive, and a much better striker. Stoltzfus MIGHT have a tiny wrestling advantage, but even that is questionable, as Mag is quite comfortable with wrestling and grappling, too. He's shown pretty good TDD and a solid ability to scramble up if he's taken down. The only way I can see Dustin coming through here is if he's able to take Mag down and hold him down for long spells, or if he's potentially able to grab a sneaky guillotine or something in the clinch,and I don't think either of those is very likely. 

I like Magomedov here quite a bit. I would potentially be a little concerned about Mag making the step up to the UFC, but having fought in KSW and having made it to the PFL finals, I'm not as worried about that. I'd line the fight Mag -240 or 70%. (Currently, Mag is at -255 or about 72%. No "value" on that line, technically speaking, but I might feel comfortable parlaying him anyway. We'll see.) 

FARES ZIAM (ORTH) VS MICHAL FIGLAK (ORTH)

I happened to see someone on Twitter post a bet on Fares Ziam at around +160, so I knew going into the tape that Michal Figlak was favored here, and after the tape I can't say I disagree. I did Ziam's tape first, and one thing I typed in my notes was "Ziam is the kind of long, technical kickboxer who will eat you up if you allow him to be comfortable. You have to crowd him, clinch him, make him uncomfortable." And also, "Ziam's a guy who could probably be beaten by a lesser striker if they have good cardio and good power and can just keep pressuring and making him uncomfortable." And well…this is exactly what Michal Figlak does well. He's also a relentless wrestler, which is another great trait to have vs Ziam. 

This is a fight where I'd potentially be interested in a bet on Ziam, with him being the guy with UFC-level experience and Figlak being the debutante, but it's tough to get behind Ziam when Figlak is literally pretty much a tailor-made opponent to beat Ziam. Figlak will apply pressure from bell to bell and will look to clinch and find TDs. He scrambles very well, nearly always managing to find an advantageous position. He seems to have really strong proprioception (how's that for a ten-dollar word, haha), which is such an awesome thing to have for MMA and isn't really teachable. (This is said to be one of the reasons that BJ Penn was "The Prodigy" and was able to achieve a BJJ black belt in 3 years. He seems to have been born with a preternatural understanding and awareness of the position of his body relative to space and to his opponent's body.) 

Overall, it's difficult for me to see a likely path to victory for Ziam here, unless Figlak starts to gas and slow down late in the fight, which seems unlikely. He has shown an ability to wrestle and engage in a grueling fight for 3 rounds and still maintain solid output. Ziam does have solid TDD at about 69%, but he also shows 46% control time against him, which is concerning. Even if Figlak struggles to take Ziam down outright, he's shown an ability to stay on the bodylock and grind in the clinch, adjusting to the positions and shifts in balance that his opponent gives him, while always seeming to stay a step ahead. 

I do have some concerns about the UFC jitters and Michal stepping up in competition here against a young but sturdy veteran in Fares Ziam, but Figlak did fight a decent level of competition in Cage Warriors the last few years, so it's difficult to quantify the step up here in any meaningful way. I would line the fight Michal Figlak -200 or 66%, though I might even be willing to go in the range of -230 or -240 if not for the UFC debutante aspect. (Currently, Figlak is at -205 or 67%. I'll probably stay away from this one and just take the opportunity to download a little more info on Figlak and how he performs at this level.)

NASSOURDINE IMAVOV (ORTH) VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY (SOUTHPAW)

Buckley relies on his athleticism a lot. Lots of big, explosive movements. Imavov is much looser, more relaxed, and more technical. I think he'll largely be able to use his reach and his footwork to read what's coming from Buckley, evade, and throw back. Buckley loads up and telegraphs, and Imavov is too technical to likely be caught by that. We could see Buckley look to wrestle here, but Imavov does have solid TDD, and he's also a dangerous grappler and scrambles well. So I'm not overly concerned about Buckley spending a ton of time in top control and winning that way. 

Overall, I think Buckley is largely dependent on a KO to get the win here. Even though Imavov is 5 inches taller, Buckley allegedly has a one-inch reach advantage, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the cage. I think Imavov should be able to use his movement on the outside, pick away at Buckley with his jab and take over more and more as Buckley slows down from his big, explosive movements. I'll line the fight Imavov -220 or 69%. (Currently, Imavov is at -260 or 72%. That does feel like it's starting to get a little wide, but not sure if it's enough for me to bet on Buckley at +220. Maybe his KO prop will be worth a look?)

BENOIT ST-DENIS (SOUTHPAW) VS GABRIEL MIRANDA

Miranda is making his UFC debut. He's 16-5 as a pro, so a decent amount of experience, but largely against rather low-level opposition. His first 11 opponents had a combined record of 12-27-1. Benoit St-Denis made his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos and proved his toughness and grit in a losing effort. St-Denis is a stifling grappler with a very impressive top game. He wraps the legs up and stays very, very tight, giving his opponent no room to work. He works systematically through positions, staying very disciplined, and he's excellent at finding the back. Basically, unless you can stop his TDs, or unless you have an excellent positional grappling game of your own–and excellent sub defense–Benoit St-Denis will likely prove a handful. 

Miranda does have a pretty solid BJJ game of his own, with 13 pro wins by submission. However, I see this as a "there's levels to this shit" kinda situation, as the last 3 fighters Miranda submitted were 5-5, 8-7, and 5-1, while the last 3 opponents St-Denis submitted were 12-5, 6-2, and 15-4. Additionally, St-Denis seems much more comfortable in the striking exchanges, whereas Miranda tends to just kinda swing in wildy to close distance and look for a TD. I like St-Denis here quite a bit. I'll line it Benoit St-Denis at -260 or 72%. (Currently, St-Denis is at -275 or 73%. I'd maybe consider parlaying him here? Or his sub prop might be worth a look?)

CRISTIAN QUINONEZ (ORTH) VS KHALID TAHA (ORTH)

Taha is 1-3-1 in the UFC. Quinonez is making his UFC debut after defeating Long Xiao by UD on DWCS. Overall, Taha seems to have big power, but he kinda loads up and looks for big shots. I think Quinonez will have better movement, better volume, and will mix up his strikes more. I didn't watch a ton of tape on either guy, so this isn't a super confident read, but I do like Quinonez here slightly. I'll line the fight Quinonez -140 or 58%. (Currently, Quinonez is at +125 or 44%. Makes sense, given he's the UFC debutante coming off DWCS, but I really like his volume and movement here. As long as he can avoid getting caught and KOed, I think he wins this. I might bet him here, but I think I'll wait and see if the line gets even better. There are definitely some concerns with Quinonez coming off DWCS and making his UFC debut here, so proceed with caution.)

ZARAH FAIRN (ORTH) VS AILIN PEREZ (ORTH)

Please note that I'm aware that Stephanie Egger has replaced Zarah Fairn in this fight, but I haven't been able to do the tape and the write-up on Egger yet, and I need to get these notes posted today, so I'm just gonna roll with the notes I've got for the Fairn fight.

Fairn has about 7.5 min of Octagon time in 2 UFC fights. She does have at least a purple belt in BJJ, allegedly, but she hasn't shown much ability to grapple in the cage from what we've seen so far. Based on what we've seen from these two in their most recent fights, this is a bad stylistic matchup for Fairn. She's been soundly (and easily, honestly) outgrappled in her last two fights, finished in the first rd both times. Those fights were against Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer, both of whom are much bigger than Ailin Perez, so that's one factor to consider, but I still think there's every reason to believe that Perez should be able to take Fairn down and have her way on the mat. 

From the footage I watched, Perez appeared to have solid TDs and an excellent top game. She establishes control quickly and then patiently works through positions while staying tight and minding her top control. She's also very patient with her GNP, not risking losing position. She finds a great balance between landing damage and staying tight to maintain position. She'll posture up for a couple nice strikes, and then tighten back up to re-establish position, before posturing up to land strikes again. She looks very dominant and impressive in her regional footage. 

I do favor Perez quite a bit here, but I think I need to keep in mind both her size disadvantage and the fact that she'll be making her UFC debut. However, in her regional footage, she did appear to have a comfort and maturity in the cage that belies her age (27) and relative lack of experience (8 pro fights). I'll line the fight Ailin Perez at -190 or 65%, though I'd likely line her quite a bit wider than that if this weren't her first UFC fight. Skill-for-skill, I think she's likely a much better fighter than Zarah Fairn.

That’s it, gang! Thanks for reading, and thanks for continuing to support the efforts of not only myself, but of the whole gang at NeverHedge Media. Good luck!

-ErikBetsFights