Erik's UFC Vegas 58 Tape Study Notes

Biting the bullet and sharing my notes for the first time. Hope you enjoy them and find them helpful!

A NOTE ON MY TAPE-STUDY METHOD: I do the tape without knowing the odds, so I can set what I believe the odds “should” be and then compare them to the existing odds to see where I perceive there to be value. That’s what the odds notes are at the end of each fight’s write-up: just me having a little discussion with myself about the odds. I’m very open to feedback, so please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have questions, concerns, ideas, or whatever. And thanks for reading!

RAFAEL DOS ANJOS (SOUTHPAW) VS RAFAEL FIZIEV (ORTH/SWITCH)

Fiziev is so sharp and quick and technical in the stand-up. Switches stances very smoothly. Great leg kicks and body kicks. Very fast hook combos in the pocket. He likes to throw a lead-leg switch kick to the body that happens very quickly.

Fiz is very relaxed and composed in the cage. He's one of those fighters who pulls off almost looking bored and unengaged in the middle of a fight. An "ice water in his veins" kinda guy.

Fiz has excellent TDD, but I wonder if RDA will have any success timing his kicks to get TDs. Fiz does like to move forward and apply pressure, and he seems to be a momentum-based fighter who really finds success when he starts to "feel himself" in there. Excellent evasiveness and head movement in pocket exchanges.

If RDA can land TDs here, he might have a shot, but on the feet, I think he'll get outlanded and picked apart by the younger, faster, more technical fighter.

Fiziev defends 11 TD attempts vs Alex White, but they were largely rather slow and half-hearted attempts, and often of the "just get to clinch on the initial entry and try to work to the hips from there" variety rather than the "time the level-change and entry to blast through the TD on the initial entry" variety. RDA is pretty good at the second variety, but he's also getting up there in age and fight-mileage, and that kind of timing, especially against a young, fast, and explosive guy like Fiziev, is a young man's game.

I think Fiziev is the kind of fighter who can have a demoralizing effect on an opponent, as he pushes forward relentlessly, he's very confident, and he's very hard to hurt. His approach is the kind that can wear an opponent down. Also, I don't think RDA has ever fought a guy with samurai hair before, and look how that turned out for Glover. Aging MMA legends are 0-1 against samurai hair in 2022. The trend is your friend.

Overall, I would line this fight around Fiziev at -240 or 70%. (Currently, Fiziev is at -200 or 66%. Not a huge edge there, but I'll probably bet that.)

CAIO BORRALHO (SOUTHPAW) VS ARMEN PETROSYAN (ORTH)

Caio is well-rounded and athletic. And as the "Fight Nerd," he's a pretty likeable and marketable guy. I like him. "Fight Nerd" is my name on the heart monitor screen at the cardio kickboxing class where I punch a heavybag with soccer moms 3 times a week, so that's some pretty special shit to me.

He bounces on his toes in a very sideways karate-style stance. Point-sparring type of striking style, where he largely lunges in with single or double strikes and then looks to get back out of range and use his movement. Solid wrestling and very solid grappling, too. He's been training on the ground with Demian Maia for almost a decade, which is bound to learn ya a thing or two about Ye Olde Jiujitsu.

He does hold his hands low and rely more so on his footwork and evasiveness to avoid strikes, which I don't love to see, but it seems to mostly work for him so far. He is hittable, but when he gets caught, it's often not cleanly.

Armen is a very solid kickboxer with good power. Holds his hands pretty low at times. He's certainly capable of getting knockouts, but he's not the kinda guy who loads up on everything and looks to get you out of there. He's more than happy to just chip away with hard jabs, hooks, and leg kicks and let them add up.

He does struggle with the wrestling and grappling, which is where Caio should be able to have ample success in this fight. On the feet, it could absolutely get dicey, and Armen will almost certainly land some good shots. But Caio's ideal gameplan should be to pressure him on the feet and create openings for clinching and grappling. I like Caio to either win a grappling-heavy decision or possibly even find the RNC and get the tap.

I would line Caio at around -185 or 65%. (Currently, Caio is at -175 or 64%. Not a ton of value there, but I do like Caio in this fight, and I might throw him in a parlay, anyway cuz I LIKE TO LIVE DANGEROUS LIKE THAT.)

SAID NURMAGOMEDOV (ORTH) VS DOUGLAS SILVA DE ANDRADE (ORTH)

Said Nurmagomedov freakin' LOVES spinning around, man. My hyperactive stepson who spins like it's his job even in the middle of dinner has got NOTHIN' on ol' Said "The Helicopter" Nurmagomedov. I have no idea what the UFC record is for 'Most Spinning Attacks in a Single Round,' but I'd be surprised if Said didn't set that record in the first rd vs Raoni Barcelos. He throws no fewer than 5 spinning backfists in that round, and if you add in spinning kicks and at least one "just for the heck of it" pirouette, I'd conservatively estimate that Said performs a dozen full revolutions in that five-minute span. Enough to make the Tazmanian Devil blush (SPOILER ALERT: that's not the last we'll be hearing of him today).

Douglas Silva de Andrade likely isn't human. He's like 40% human, and the other 60% is a combination of hard, exotic metals (some Wolfram in there, perhaps?), some kind of badger DNA, and whatever Mickey Rourke is made out of. He's a ball of kinetic energy, throwing everything with bad intent, and looking for his moment to pounce and finish the fight. He has like 20 KOs in his career, and when you watch him fight, it's easy to see how. He's very strong and powerful for 135 lbs. However, his flat-footed, tense, all-power-all-the-time style likely makes him a perfect foil for someone like Said, who will use speed and movement to his advantage, leaving Silva one step behind and struggling to get Said in his crosshairs long enough to land the big shots he needs.

I like Said to win a decision here with his superior standup skills. I would line the fight Said at like -280 or 73%. (Currently, Said can be had for -230 or 70%. Not much of an edge there, but I think I'll bet it. Thinking that line might get wider.)

JAMIE PICKETT (SOUTHPAW) VS DENIS TIULIULIN (ORTH)

To be frank, I don't think highly of Jamie Pickett, and I think it's largely because he remains at his small hometown gym (unless this has changed–someone correct me if I'm wrong so I don't go around sounding like a dumbass) rather than seeking out higher-level training. He has the kind of natural gifts and physique that would make a coach salivate and could potentially be something pretty special with time spent in the right training room, I think.

He's very big, long, and athletic. Has a lot of natural speed, power, and agility, with extremely long limbs and a short torso–and a natural southpaw to boot! He's definitely got some skills, but he also has some holes and liabilities in his game that cause him to make mistakes, and those things could probably be shored up by the right coaching staff.

He kinda throws strikes "naked," without setting them up. I think he needs to tighten up the "seams" that hold his game together, as he appears to struggle with the small details that make the difference between someone who has some skills in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and someone who is able to put it all together into consistent mixed martial arts performances.

He seems to rely on his natural athleticism a little too much, rather than allowing it to supplement and bolster his skillset and overall game. It's like when a really strong guy learns jiu-jitsu: enormous strength can sometimes allow for a technique to "work" without actually performing the small details correctly, whereas someone with average strength will be more likely to NEED those small details in order to make the technique work consistently, so they're more likely to LEARN those details.

If Pickett worked with a coach who could get his ear in exactly the right way to get him to really focus on tightening up his technique and patching the holes in his game so his athleticism can really shine, he could be dangerous. As is, he just doesn't seem to have much structure to his game and he appears to just kinda make hasty decisions in the moment rather than adhering to any solid gameplan.

Tiuliulin could almost be said to be a bit of the opposite: doesn't seem to be a plus athlete, but he's got pretty solid striking skills–high guard, chin tucked, doesn't load up too much, throws straight, accurate punches–and he stays reasonably disciplined with his approach. He also showed decent TDD and get-up skills in his UFC debut vs Aliaskhab Khizriev, but it's worth noting that the grappling seemed to sap his cardio considerably, as he was beginning to slow already by the end of the first round.

In his fight immediately prior to his UFC debut, vs Juscelino Ferreira in UAE Warriors, he showed patient, consistent kickboxing, and a willingness to engage in firefights in the pocket. He seems willing to trust his defense and his chin and embrace the "I'll hit you harder than you hit me" approach. And in that fight, it worked, as he scored an impressive first-round KO over the 11-2 Ferreira. This fight could play out closely early, but unless Denis can find a KO in the first 7 min or so, I like Pickett to take over with his superior cardio and either cruise to a decision or potentially even find a finish late if Tiuliulin gases badly. Pickett will likely have to survive some dangerous exchanges, but I think if he looks to clinch and cagepush and wear on Tiuliulin, he should be able to tire him out.

I'd line the fight around Pickett at -165 or 62%. (Currently, Pickett is at -175 or 64%. Not interested in a bet here, but I'd consider sprinkling Denis by KO or even KO in round 1 if the line is juicy enough.)

UPDATE: This fight is no longer on the card, but I decided to leave the breakdown anyway.

JARED VANDERAA (ORTH) VS CHASE SHERMAN

In his last fight, Chase Sherman was the biggest betting underdog in UFC history. Sure, it was against Alexandr Romanov, but still.

Sherman isn't very good. Jared Vanderaa isn't very good, either, but as they say, "there's levels to this shit," and that includes levels of suck. Chase Sherman sucks more than Jared Vanderaa, but that doesn't mean he can't or won't win–especially in the doldrums that is HEAVYWEIGHT MMA.

Chase Sherman is 3-9 in the UFC. Go ahead and read that sentence again if you need to. And considering he signed a new four-fight deal when he took the Romanov sacrificial beating (errrr, I mean…"fight"), and considering that he's only on the roster to be a warm body for other heavyweights to style on, he could feasibly be 3-12 before long. Heck, I'll put it out there; I ain't scurrrrrred: he likely WILL go 3-12 if the UFC manages to avoid snapping and cutting him in a frustrating moment where all the "WHAT THE HELL WERE WE THINKING" in the world suddenly comes home to roost. If a 3-12 UFC record sounds unprecedented, it's because it is. Even Tank Abbott couldn't manage to lose 12 times in the UFC, despite his earnest efforts. He’s the only guy in UFC history to ever tap to a toehold. I tried to tap my six-year-old nephew with a toehold, and he said it tickled. Sure, Jeremy Stephens lost like 18 times or some shit, but at least he was able to pair that with almost as many wins. HISTORY IN THE MAKING, FIGHT FANS, AND WE'RE LUCKY TO BE HERE FOR IT. Or whatever.

This is the kind of fight where I almost feel like I can let the stats do the heavy lifting. (Get it? "HEAVY"?) Two big and not-super-skilled dudes are going to throw hands. One of them might try for takedowns, and the other one will not. So, who will throw more punches? And if the one guy does try for takedowns, will he get them? Those are the BURNING QUESTIONS.

According to the striking stats, Sherman throws about 4 more significant strikes per minute and lands about 1.5 more. If the fight plays out on the feet, Sherman could potentially win. Hard to even imagine what Chase Sherman standing in the Octagon with his hand raised by a ref would even look like at this point, but it could happen. But what if Vanderaa–he of the vaunted "BJJ BLACK BELT" (I mean no disrespect with the quotation marks, except…that's not entirely true. I mean, c'mon.)--decides to grapple? I mean, he DOES have 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC.

What's that, you say? That stat surprises you, you say? Well, let's dig deeper, friends. The devil, as they say, is in the details.

He has completed ONE takedown on ONE attempt–and that was against HARRY HUNSUCKER ON CONTENDER SERIES. So if you wanna get real nitpicky about it–and you better believe I do–he has ZERO PERCENT TAKEDOWN ACCURACY IN THE UFC. Chase Sherman is no wrestler, but he has successfully defended ⅔ of the takedown attempts against him at the UFC level. Fair enough.

Remember that part in the first episode of 'The Office' where Jim is talking about paper and then he says, "I'm boring myself just talking about it"? That's happening to me right now.

Chase Sherman by flying armbar cuz fuck it. Time is an illusion and we could all be dead tomorrow.

MICHAEL JOHNSON (SOUTHPAW) VS JAMIE MULLARKEY (ORTH)

It's hard to think "Michael Johnson" without thinking "inconsistency" and "disappointment," but when the man is on, he is very hard to beat. His top performances are very impressive, and his bottom performances are very…not.

At his best, he's very well-rounded, showing veteran savvy in all areas, with solid wrestling, solid grappling, and excellent, smooth, educated boxing. He looked very sharp in his last outing, which produced a second-round KO of Alan Patrick, but does that mean he's due for a puzzlingly disappointing performance this time out? He's 3-7 in his last 10, which no doubt looks pretty abysmal on paper. However, I see moments in the Mullarkey vs Jalin Turner fight that make me think MJ could have some success with his boxing here. Turner stays loose and finds nice counters on Mullarkey consistently, as Mullarkey is kinda loading up and really extending on his punches and leaving those openings. MJ doesn't have the size and length of Turner, of course, but if we see the same MJ we saw in the Alan Patrick fight, I think he could have decent success against Mullarkey. Especially if Mullarkey's mindset is affected at all by his devastating loss to Turner the last time out.

Overall, I do favor Mullarkey to win, at maybe like -150 or 60%, but with MJ currently sitting at +210 or 32%, I'm willing to take a shot on that. There's a good chance this bet loses, but that's how I play the game. I'm hitting big underdogs at a 41% clip, for 45% ROI, so I gotta trust those reads and get out the ol’ DOG-CATCHER’S NET when the situation calls for it.

CYNTHIA CALVILLO (ORTH) VS NINA NUNES (ORTH)

I don't know what to do with this fight, gang.

Calvillo, currently on a 3-fight losing streak, looked pretty bad against Andrea Lee her last time out. She didn't get beat up super bad, necessarily, but it was just a discouraging, frustrating type of performance where Lee had her way every second of the fight and Calvillo just couldn't get anything going. Her corner stopped the fight after round 2, which is something we almost never see, so they clearly saw something in her that night that told them pulling the plug on that fight was the right call. Doesn't necessarily bode well for her here.

Nina is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking skills, but she's been somewhat plagued by inactivity, having averaged only 1.4 fights per year since making her pro debut in 2010 against Catia Vitoria at Crowbar Fights, the promotion owned by former UFC HW Chris Tuchscherer (I spelled that without looking, I swear) in Fargo, ND. Not that anyone cares, but I lived in Fargo for years, and I was actually there in person on that fateful night when a fresh-faced 24-year old Nina Ansaroff stepped into the ring at the Scheel's Arena and thought, "Hey, I kinda like this fighting stuff. I should see if I can somehow end up marrying the most dominant women's UFC champion of all time." Dreams do come true, kids. Reach for the stars and all that.

With the way Calvillo looked in her last fight, I'd like to lean Nina here, but her age and inactivity scare me. I feel like it's impossible to feel confident in how she'll look at 36 years old, coming off two losses in the only two fights she's had in the last 3.5 years. Also, she's got a comfortable home life with Amanda Nunes and their baby girl, and I don't want to suggest that a new mother can't be successful as a cagefighter—as that's demonstrably and categorically false—but I just get the feeling that Nina's heart isn't in the game like it used to be. I wouldn't be surprised if we see her set the gloves down on Saturday night and ride off into the sunset to live out her years chillin' in Florida with the GOAT.

If I was gonna bet the fight, I'd bet Nina just to get the plus money, but it's a stayaway for me, friends.

AIEMANN ZAHABI (ORTH) VS RICKY TURCIOS (ORTH/SWITCH)

Did you know Ricky Turcios's middle name is "Onion"? It's not really, but read on; some of what I say here will actually be true, probably.

Aiemann Zahabi is a solid fighter all-around. Decent kickboxer with pretty good power. Serviceable wrestler. BJJ black belt. But the trait for which he's best known is "having a brother who was GSP's head coach and has managed to maintain some notoriety to this day despite not producing any fighters of note since." The tea is hot. SCALDING.

He can tend to allow himself to be pressured and allow his opponent to sort of dictate the pace and range. He'll take the fight you give him, and when it comes to the fight Turcios will give him, well, you've seen Ricky fight, right? Dude LOVES to fight. Ricky Turcios loves to fight like Luca Fury loves to talk about being tall. (JK, Luca. Nothin' but love. Minnesota-to-Vegas boys unite!) FIRAS'S LITTLE BRO DON'T WANT THAT SMOKE. I feel a little silly after typing that, but it's over now.

He doesn't tend to push the wrestling unless the opening is there, but he can suddenly shoot a surprisingly fast TD and get in deep on the hips. Opportunistic. That's the word. No irony. No cap. No homo. NO SCRUBS.

As for Ricky Turcios, he's an intense dude. A real "fight for your money" kinda guy. He employs a busy, scrambly, chaotic style that would work even better if he weren't a so-so athlete, but he never stops bringing the fight no matter where it goes, and as MMA bettors, that's something we look for.

He can be pretty hittable on the feet, choosing at times to just grow roots and throw down, even when he's not getting the best of it, which is a little concerning, as Zahabi can produce fight-ending power at times. Turcios does seem to have a pretty solid chin, but still. Ricky brings a chaos that a lot of fighters aren't accustomed to, and it's not an easy thing to adjust to in the Octagon, under the bright lights, with the crowd looking on (or, if they're at the Apex, replace "crowd" with "Luca Fury, a couple good-sized Raiders linemen, and probably like a dozen other, shorter dudes"). 

I don't know that Ricky has much fight IQ. I don't know that he even thinks about what he SHOULD or COULD be doing. He just fights. Ricky scrambles like the Tazmanian Devil after his mama just told him, "You better scramble, boy, or no Brexit!" (That's what Tazmanian devils call breakfast. No relation whatsoever to the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union–just a coincidence).

I don't know that I'm willing to argue that Ricky Turcios is the "better" fighter here, but what I WILL argue is that Ricky Turcios is weird as shit. (Insert incomprehensible rambling about the sun and the moon and the stars or some shit here.)

For real, though, we can count on Ricky Turcios to bring the fight and look to make Zahabi uncomfortable. If he gets put in bad positions, he will not stay there. And he will always, always be looking to hurt Zahabi, to finish him, to get the upper hand. I can't say I'm super, super confident that Ricky WILL win this fight, but I can say that I'm confident he will try really, really hard to win it, and that's more than I can say for Zahabi. Ricky Turcios by wild, chaotic, sweaty-as-hell, sun-and-moon-and-stars-above (and probably split) decision.

I'd line the fight Ricky Turcios at -175 or 64%. (Currently, Ricky is at -185 or 65%. No edge there, but I'd probably bet him anyway, as a "fight for your money" kinda guy. There will be moments in this fight that will no doubt pull my balls up into my chest cavity, but I think I’ll throw ol’ Pretty Ricky in a parlay, anyway. Fortune favors the brave.)

ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO (SOUTHPAW) VS CORTNEY CASEY (ORTH)

Antonina Shevchenko has a very classic-looking muay thai stance. If you were making a fighting video game with a female muay thai fighter character, Antonina is who you'd wanna put in a green suit and cover with those little ping-pong balls. Unless Andy Serkis was available, of course, but I suspect he commands a higher price tag. Dude was King Kong and Gollum and that chimp that rides horses and shoots guns; you think he can’t be a female muay thai fighter?

Every week, there's an official "I tried to do the tape study, but I got really bored and then my cat did something cute or I remembered I had a box of Cosmic Brownies in the pantry or something, so I just…didn't watch it and don't care" fight, and this week…it's this fight.

Antonina and Cortney Casey are both primarily strikers who aren't super high-level, don't have great records, and, at 37 and 35 years old respectively, are lurching toward the twilight of their careers. We likely see a tepid 15-minute kickboxing match where nothing much happens and each minute is indistinguishable from the minute that preceded it.

Antonina is favored at -175, with Casey at +155. This is about as clear a stayaway as you'll find, but if you have to bet it because you overheard a girl you like telling her best friend that she "only dates guys who bet on EVERY fight," just take the dog. (Fun fact: if you'd have blindly bet $100 on the underdog in every women's UFC fight in 2022, you'd be up almost a grand so far. In this kind of fight, if you must place your money, I recommend doing so in such a way that if someone asks "WHO LET THE DOGS OUT," the answer is YOU.)

CODY BRUNDAGE (ORTH) VS TRESEAN GORE (ORTH/SWITCH)

When Cody Brundage first arrived in the UFC, I remember being confused by him. I felt like even after watching his tape, I wasn't sure what kind of fighter he was or was trying to be. Now, after a few fights in the UFC, I'm…still not really sure. I do know that he got a fresh 'cut before his fight with Dalcha Lungiambula, and I thought it looked very nice. I already typed a reminder in my phone to look up his barber if I'm ever in Englewood, Colorado and I’m starting to get a little shaggy around the ears.

He also showed in that fight that he can take a whole bunch of punches to the face from a very strong and scary dude and still kinda keep a look on his face like he's waiting in line at the DMV to pick up vanity plates that he thinks are pretty funny but isn't sure anyone else is gonna "get it," which is an important trait to have if you wanna be a professional fighter.

Cody is a two-time NCAA national qualifier for wrestling. Not sure what that means exactly, but when Anik mentioned it, Daniel Cormier launched into an adorable old-man nostalgia rant about wrestling in a wool singlet next to a little creek in Oklahoma or something–I don't know, I wasn't listening–so it must be important.

Cody did drop to his back to pull a guillotine on Dalcha and it worked, but I typically don't like to see fighters do that. It's like jumping into a swimming pool full of cat turds because some guy on Reddit said one of them was actually an ostrich turd, and he heard those are worth money. You might win, but if you don't, now you're just neck-deep in cat turds and it's getting dark, ya know? Even if that ostrich turd IS in there, how you gonna find it when the sun goes down, huh, smart guy?

Tresean Gore is a powerful athlete with one-hitter quitter power, but he fights like he's playing the original 'Resident Evil' and punches are handgun ammo. Bryan Battle might as well have been a zombie Tresean Gore was trying to run past without getting bit. (This metaphor working for you at all, or nah?)

What I'm saying is the man seems to think strikes are a finite resource that he's saving for a rainy day, and the sky today—well it’s very, very blue. He doesn't throw. When he does land, his opponents don't like it; that's for sure. He reminds me of Uriah Hall a little bit. Seems to lack confidence or something. If you know a good sports psychologist, maybe be a dear and shoot ol' Tresean their digits on Insta.

He definitely has a lot of potential and clear physical gifts, and it will be interesting to see the fighter he can become if he effectively works on his issues. He's 28, so not super young, but still a few years from his prime.

He seems to enjoy the split-second where his fist makes contact with his opponent's face, but he seems morally opposed to performing the movement required to get it there. I know he really digs the Bible; maybe it says "thou shalt produce forceful contact between thine fist and thine opponent's countenance, but thou shalt NOT project thine fist forcefully through the air in order to make contact—good luck figuring that one out, suckers lolololol" in there somewhere; I don't know.

I'm not gonna blow smoke: this is one of those times where I watched the tape and came away feeling like I don't have much of a read. Both guys have some clear physical gifts and some clear skills, but neither guy seems to have a real solid and complete MMA game to lean on at this point in their careers. I think Gore's best path to victory is a big KO, and I'm certainly not counting that possibility out, but I feel like Brundage could control Gore enough to keep himself safe—but I wouldn’t…ya know…BET ON IT.

I'm gonna take the coward's way out and say it's a 50/50 fight for me. I'd maybe consider a bet on either side if one guy is a decent-sized dog.

(Currently, it's a coinflip, which is pretty much what I figured.) I'm seeing lots of people confident in Gore finding a KO here, but Dalcha punched Cody in the head about 300 times, and Cody just yawned and checked his watch, so I don't know.

Oh, and don't get me wrong: Cody’s hair looks decent in the Maximov fight, too, but I feel like maybe he had a barber he liked-but-didn't-love and just hadn't found his guy yet.

KENNEDY NZECHUKWU (SOUTHPAW) VS KARL ROBERSON (SOUTHPAW)

My spotty memory always insists that Kennedy is an agile and explosive super-athlete, but then when I watch the tape on him, the evidence doesn't really support that. He's definitely huge, so I guess that's something.

When I picture a 6'5" light-heavyweight, I see a slim dude with long, wiry limbs. I see Dhalsim from Street Fighter II. Kennedy ain't Dhalsim. He's a big, thick guy who looks like a heavyweight.

If you've watched my breakdown videos, you know one thing I always repeat is, "Don't bet on what a fighter CAN do; bet on what a fighter WILL do." And if I'm taking my own advice, it's almost impossible to bet on Kennedy Nzechukwu. He CAN beat a whole lot of LHWs on the UFC roster, but it's impossible to have any confident idea about what he WILL do in any given fight.

Karl will be at a huge reach disadvantage, but considering Kennedy sometimes decides he's gonna see if it's possible to win a fight by just shuffling around the cage with his arms wrapped around his head, it may not matter.

Karl does tend to camp out on the outside, with his back almost on the cage. Kennedy could exploit that tendency, I think, but he just can't be trusted to. 

I'm struggling with how to line this fight. If the best version of Kennedy shows up, I'd be comfortable lining him at like -170, maybe? So 63%. But I'd line the Kennedy that fought Da-Un Jung at like +666.

(Currently, Kennedy is at -110. Coin flip. Makes sense to me.) I gotta stay away. Can't be selling my soul to the devil only to feel the flames licking my toes while Kennedy Nzechukwu stands in the middle of the Octagon and daydreams about how good it would feel to throw a punch, if…only….he….

RONNIE LAWRENCE (ORTH/SWITCH) VS SAIDYOKUB KAKHRAMONOV

Ronnie Lawrence might LOOK like an amalgam of every guy working at every 7-Eleven you've ever been to, but assuming 7-Eleven's wikipedia page can be believed, he's a better fighter than their entire workforce of 135,332 employees except for one shift supervisor at the Hooker Ave location in Poughkeepsie. But anybody can edit wikipedia, so that guy might've written that himself.

Ronnie is a good fighter, man. And he's fun to watch. On the feet, he stays on his bike, circling on the outside and peppering with shots until he sees an opening to land his big takedowns. He's one of those dudes who didn't wrestle in high school or college, but you wouldn't know it. GSP didn't wrestle in high school or college, either, and you can make an argument that he's the best MMA wrestler our young sport has seen.

Ronnie drops Mana Martinez 3 times in their fight, which is awesome, but he also gets dropped twice himself, which is not. He's 8-1 as a pro but also went 6-0 as an amateur, so he's a little more experienced than he might appear at a glance. I like the kid. I think he's got a lot to offer and, while he might not be championship material, he'll likely be around a while and could have a bright future in the face-punching biz.

Saidyokub is a striker with accurate hands and pretty good power. He can grapple, but it's not necessarily his first choice. He throws hard kicks, mixing them up to the legs, body, and head. Throws good, hard hooks in the pocket. Good KO power, especially for a smaller man.

I lean Ronnie here slightly, but nothing I'm real confident in. I maybe line the fight like Ronnie Lawrence -125 or 55%. (Currently, Ronnie is at -140 or 58%. No bet from me here.)

That’s it, gang! Please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any thoughts or feedback or just wanna shoot the shit. Enjoy the fights this weekend, and I hope you cash all those juicy tickets!

-Erik