Erik's UFC Vegas 59 Tape Study Notes
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill
THIAGO SANTOS (ORTH) VS JAMAHAL HILL (SOUTHPAW)
In July 2019, Thiago Santos fought (and arguably defeated) Jon Jones, even after tearing every ligament and tendon and whatever else the human knee has to tear. He's fought 4 times since then, dropping 3 of those fights to top-shelf competition in Teixeira, Rakic, and Ankalaev.
Jamahal Hill has impressed pretty consistently in his 6-fight UFC run since debuting as a pretty hyped prospect coming off Dana White's Contender Series. He has 2 inches of height, 3 inches of reach, and 7 years of youth on Santos. Pretty much everything is leaning in Hill's favor in this fight.
Outside of Santos catching Hill with one big punch that puts him away, this should be Hill's fight all day. Hill could just outwork and outland Santos for the full 25 mins, but I lean toward thinking he catches him at some point for the KO finish.
Santos tends to be a bit flat-footed and to allow himself to be corralled and just kinda stay where he is. Ya know how in Mike Tyson's 'Punch-Out,' you can throw a variety of punches, but you can't actually move around the ring? Sorta like that. Jamahal Hill, on the other hand, will stake his claim on the whole Octagon, really using the space that's available to him.
I lean toward thinking Hill will take some time to get comfortable and find his range, but once he's feeling himself, I think he'll be able to get Santos out of there. I'm thinking Hill by KO in rds 2 or 3. I'll line the fight Jamahal Hill -300 or 75%. (Currently, Hill is at -265 or 72%. Not much of an edge there, but I think that line will get wider. I'll definitely parlay Hill if I can find another good leg.)
ZAC PAUGA (ORTH) VS MOHAMMED USMAN
In typical TUF fashion, this heavyweight battle for the Ultimate Fighter crown is being contested between Mohammed Usman, an actual heavyweight, and Zac Pauga, who is in reality a 205-er at best and would almost certainly be able to make 185 very comfortably. When he fought former UFC MW Markus Perez, he weighed in at 204 and was notably smaller than Perez. Honestly, if he spent some time at the UFC PI, working with high-level nutritionists and conditioning coaches, he could probably make 170. (OK, that might be a stretch…but a 175 catchweight? Definitely. haha)
I wonder how many fighters who fought at HW on TUF and then ended up in the UFC actually fought the majority of their post-TUF careers at HW. Not many. Rashad Evans? Not a heavyweight. Keith Jardine? Not a heavyweight. Seth Petruzelli, Mike Whitehead, James McSweeney, Kimbo Slice? Not heavyweights.
Anyway, I digress.
I think I like Pauga here, as the quicker guy with the better technical striking. In the Jordan Heiderman fight, Pauga is able to use his movement to stay at a good distance and largely avoid strikes. Usman tends to lunge in, throwing hooks and overhands from his pockets, and I think Pauga will be able to see those coming and largely keep himself safe in those spots. I like Pauga slightly, maybe like Pauga -150 or 60%. (Currently, Pauga is at -235 or 70%. That seems wide to me, but I don't think I'm interested in betting Usman, either. Gonna stay away for now.)
JULIANA MILLER (ORTH) VS BROGAN WALKER (SOUTHPAW)
We always want to be a little cautious when capping low-level women's MMA, but from what I'm seeing in their TUF fights, I like Juliana Miller here.
Brogan is very physical and hits hard, but she's often quite hesitant to let her hands go, which isn't a problem Miller has, even if she is the less talented striker on paper. They both like to push forward, but Miller actually throws punches while doing so, and she has no problem being a little reckless and wildly aggressive on the feet, as she's fine with the fight going to the ground, even if she's on her back, as she has a great guard and great ability to scramble to more advantageous positions.
Laura Gallardo was able to repeatedly clinch Brogan Walker against the cage, but wasn't able to take her down, partially because of her size. Miller has the size, the strength, the aggression, and the technique that should allow her to rip Brogan to the ground in those clinch positions. And even if she can't, she's the type of fighter who has no problem making you wear her like a backpack standing if the opportunity is there. She also seems to have the cardio to push and push and push and stay on those chained takedown attempts until she gets the fight to the ground.
I don't feel super comfortable with the idea of betting on a low-level women's fight like this, but I favor Miller quite a bit here, and if I get a decent number on her, I might have to go for it. I'll also be anxiously awaiting her sub prop. I'll line the fight Juliana Miller at -170 or 63%, though I'm kinda expecting to find them at close to even money. (Currently, Miller is at -125 or 55%. If my read is correct, there's value there, but this is a sketchy enough fight that I don't really wanna bet Miller unless the line flips and I can get some plus-money on her.)
VICENTE LUQUE (ORTH/SWITCH) VS GEOFF NEAL (SOUTHPAW)
Luque is a tight, technical striker. He likes to apply constant pressure, keeping a high guard, backing his opponent up, switching stances, keeping his opponent uncomfortable. If you can't figure out a way to hurt Luque, to disrupt his gameplan, to get him off you–he will win.
Neal is light on his feet and tends to use more movement than Luque. I think Neal also has faster hands and is in general a little more dynamic than Luque, while Luque is more disciplined and technical.
I'm having a hard time getting a strong read on how this fight plays out on the feet, so I'm gonna have to lean on some stats a little bit. The striking stats show Luque landing a tiny bit more and absorbing a tiny bit more, but the margins are small enough as to mean very little, in my opinion. Luque is a legit submission threat, which should also be taken into account, though I don't expect this fight to go to the ground much if at all.
Overall, I do favor Luque slightly in this fight, I think, but I don't feel super confident in that read. He's fought the higher level of competition and has only lost to Belal Muhammad, Stephen Thompson, Leon Edwards, and Michael Graves at the UFC level. The first 3 are elite competition, and we can kinda forgive him for that last one, as it was his UFC debut back in 2015. I'm gonna line the fight Luque -150 or 60%, but I'm about to pull up the odds, and I honestly don't know what I'm going to find. (Luque is currently at -175 or 63%. So I actually wasn't far off with that read. Not interested in a bet here at the moment, although I'll be interested to take a look at the props when they drop.)
AUGUSTO SAKAI (ORTH) VS SERGHEI SPIVAK (ORTH)
Augusto Sakai has an obnoxious tendency of fighting like a guy who's more concerned about getting the step count up on his pedometer than he is about getting the win count up on his record. He'll circle and circle and circle, but will he…ya know…THROW PUNCHES? Sometimes. But sometimes not. And that's concerning.
I think this fight could largely come down to whether Spivak is able to get Sakai to the mat. And if he can, can he hold him there? Sakai does show 68% TDD at the UFC level, but the details behind that statistic are important. Overeem took him down 3 times on 3 attempts. Blagoy Ivanov took him down once on 3 attempts. Marcos Conrado Jr took him down 1 time on 7 attempts on DWCS Brazil in 2018. Outside of that DWCS fight, he's faced only 7 TD attempts in 7 fights. Spivak averages 3.29 TDs per 15 min. Besides Aleksei Oleinik, Spivak has taken down every opponent he's beaten in the Octagon at least 3 times. And he's scored ZERO TDs in the fights he's lost, so they're clearly a big deciding factor in his success.
Sakai will have about 20 lbs on Spivak. He's a big dude, and trying to control him against the cage and working for TDs on him could be very exhausting for Spivak if he's not able to get them easily. But I think I do like Spivak here. I'll line the fight around Spivak at -150 or 60%. (Currently, Spivak is at -210. Darn. This is the first fight I'm taping on this card, and I was excited to pull the trigger on a bet, but I can't do it at that number. I'll be interested in seeing Spivak's ITD or sub prop numbers, but no bet right now.)
MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK VS SAM ALVEY
Don't bet this fight, you guys.
ARIANE LIPSKI (ORTH) VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA (ORTH)
If you allow Lipski to have a tactical, technical kickboxing bout, that's a fight she's usually going to win. That said, she can struggle to really put her stamp on rounds, leaving the fight potentially looking close in the eyes of the judges.
Cachoeira is the kind of fighter who will look to get in her face, bully her, and land hard shots to dissuade her. Lipski's issue is that she can be quite low-volume, landing only 3.3 SS/M (to Cachoeira's 4.4). Lipski is definitely the better technical striker of the two, but Cach might be able to bring the kind of pressure and ugly fight that throws Lipski off her game. As we saw in the Kim fight, Cachoeira is capable of putting on the type of performances that win her fights even with being soundly outlanded. She pressures, throws hard, lands hard.
I think Lipski is the better fighter and should win this fight. However, if there's decent plus money on Cach, I may be willing to take a shot at it. I'm gonna line the fight Lipski at -175 or 63%, but I won't be surprised if she's a bigger fav than that. Not sure. (Currently, Lipski is at -170. OK, yeah. Pretty much right on. That puts Cach at +145. I'd probably need her at +180 or better to consider a shot on her here. It's gonna be a stayaway for me, I think.)
TAKASHI SATO (SOUTHPAW) VS BRYAN BATTLE (ORTH)
"What is the sound of one hand clapping?"
"If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around, does it make a sound?"
"What would a chair look like if your knees bent the other way?"
We've all heard questions like these. They make you think. And they may not really have answers. Let's try this one instead:
"Who wins in a fight between a fighter who throws punches and a fighter who doesn't?"
Are you confident that you can answer that question correctly? It seems obvious, right?
Right.
Now go forth and bet accordingly.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(And here's the real write-up in case you prefer that kind of thing:)
Battle throws over twice as many SS/M and lands like 3 times more. That will likely be Sato's biggest issue here: he just doesn't throw, while Battle throws constantly.
By my count, Battle throws 17 kicks and 1 punch in the first 60 secs against Tresean Gore. That's 18 strikes in one minute. For comparison, Takashi Sato attempted 34 total strikes against Gunnar Nelson. 34 strikes. In 15 mins. He was controlled on the ground for like 8 min of that fight, but still. That's 34 total strikes attempted in the 7 min in which he wasn't being controlled. Battle attempts 79 total strikes in just the first rd against Gore. I'm sure I've said more than enough for you to see where I'm going with this. Sato's only real shot to win this fight is to catch Battle and either KO him stiff or drop him and follow up with strikes on the ground for the stoppage, but with Battle constantly in his face, looking to back him up and keep him uncomfortable with strikes, I just don't see that as very likely. Battle will win minutes handily, and I don't think he'll allow Sato many opportunities to create the moments he needs to get the upper hand. I favor Battle quite a bit here. I'll line the fight Battle at -240 or 70%. (Currently, Battle is at -220 or 69%. I feel pretty comfortable with him as a parlay piece here.)
TERRANCE MCKINNEY VS ERICK GONZALEZ (ORTH)
Beating Terrance McKinney largely comes down to chin, heart, and toughness. He's going to come at you like the Tasmanian Devil as soon as the horn sounds. You need to be ready for that. He's going to hit you very hard early in the fight. He's probably going to hurt you. He’s probably going to drop you. To stand a chance, you need to survive all of that.
Jim Miller was able to land a left hook on Gonzalez like 4 or 5 times late in rd 1 of their fight, and he was hurting him every time. As soon as rd 2 started, Miller launched that same big left and starched Gonzalez on the spot. This does not bode well for Gonzalez in this matchup. I think it's pretty likely that Terrance McKinney is able to come out and do Terrance McKinney things here. T-Wrecks by rd 1 KO.
I happen to have already seen the odds for this fight, and I know Terrance is a huge favorite. I don't remember exactly how huge, but I think he was at least -900 or something when I saw the line and that was a while ago. (Currently, McKinney is -1000 or 91%. I absolutely wouldn't touch that line, wouldn't put it in a parlay, nothin'. When lines are sitting like this, you have to look to props. Even McKinney's ITD or rd 1 KO or any of that stuff probably won't be at great numbers, though.)
JASON WITT (SWITCH) VS JOSH QUINLAN (ORTH/SWITCH)
I will not be surprised if Josh Quinlan knocks Jason Witt out cold the very first time he is close enough to him to land a punch.
Jason Witt is a strong, physical guy with good wrestling and a terrible chin that will always be a liability, especially against opponents that can crack. And Quinlan can DEFINITELY crack. Dude is all fast-twitch muscles and outright EXPLOSION. Quick footwork, quick hands, and when he has you hurt, he's relentless with the punishment until the ref pulls him off.
I think Quinlan has the power and accuracy to catch Witt when he's punching his way in to look for the clinch and the takedown. Even if Witt is able to get TDs, I see the fight playing out similarly to the Rowe fight, with Witt struggling to get the finish on the ground and Quinlan either working to his feet, getting stood up by the ref, or finishing Witt at the beginning of rd 2 after Witt wears himself down a little with the grappling in rd 1. Basically, Josh Quinlan will almost certainly land on Witt at some point. Quinlan hits very, very hard, and Witt doesn't handle that well. I like Quinlan by KO here is what I'm saying. I'll line the fight Josh Quinlan at -200 or 66%. (Currently, Quinlan is at -225 or 69%. No bet from me here, though I'll be interested to see Quinlan's KO prop and rd 1 KO prop.)
CORY MCKENNA (ORTH) VS MIRANDA GRANGER (ORTH)
I like Cory McKenna to win this fight pretty handily if she pushes the wrestling, but she can’t always be trusted to do that. And when she tries to fight on the feet, she’s swimming upstream, with what I believe might be the smallest reach in UFC history at 58.5” (or 4 feet 10.5 inches).
That said, even if she does get TDs, Granger fights well off her back (has 5 sub wins on her record) and shows pretty decent ability to use her hips to slide out to the side to get back to her feet.
Granger has like 10 inches of reach here, which would give her a MASSIVE advantage on the feet, if only she was willing to actually fight long. Instead, she has a tendency to crash into the pocket rather awkwardly, putting herself off-balance and out of position in the process.
So basically, my breakdown for this fight boils down to "each fighter has a clear advantage that would likely allow them to win this fight if they exploited it to the best of their ability…but neither can be trusted to do so."
I guess I'll favor McKenna for the wrestling and top control upside. I'll line the fight McKenna -190 or 65%. (Currently, Cory McKenna is at -237 or 70%, with Granger at +202 or 33%. Granger almost feels worth a bet at that number, especially considering good ol' "Womens' Science"--shoutout to the Punchlist MMA Podcast–but I think I'd rather wait and maybe take a shot on her sub prop.)
MAYRA BUENO SILVA (ORTH) VS STEPHANIE EGGER (ORTH)
MBS can be rather low-volume, but when she does land, she lands HARD. She has real, legit power in her punches. On the feet, I think MBS will land harder, but Egger has improved her striking considerably and does look reasonably comfortable on the feet for a fighter who doesn't really butter her bread as a striker. Mara Romero Borella was able to get a trip TD against the cage pretty easily against MBS, and I have no reason to believe Egger shouldn't be able to do the same. And MBS has shown she can be willing to work off her back. (She did get the armbar vs Borella, but she's unlikely to have success off her back against Egger, in my opinion.)
This feels like a pretty close fight to me. However, I think Mayra Bueno Silva might be a tad bit overrated, and I think people tend to underrate Stephanie Egger, so I'm expecting to find MBS as a decent-sized favorite here. I'm gonna line the fight as a coinflip, and I'd probably consider betting either fighter at decent plus-money. (Currently, MBS is favored at -125 or 55%. That seems about right to me, I guess, but I was kinda expecting her to be an even bigger favorite. Egger sits at +105 or 48%. I'd probably need Egger to be like +150 before I'd consider betting her, but I am interested in her sub prop, potentially. Whoa, that was crazy. I just refreshed my browser, and this fight flipped to -110 each.)
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-Erik