Erik's UFC Vegas 60 Tape Study Notes

Cory Sandhagen vs. Song Yadong

CORY SANDHAGEN (ORTH/SWITCH) VS SONG YADONG (ORTH)

I really like watching Cory Sandhagen fight. He switches stances, cuts angles, changes up his targets, his tempo, his rhythm. He employs feints well, hand-fights in close, and employs head movement and footwork to keep his opponent guessing. Overall, he's just a very tricky guy to figure out. 

Song Yadong's game might not be as tricky or layered as Sandhagen's, but he's young and devastatingly powerful, and he's always improving. This is truly a matchup between two of the most promising and exciting bantamweights the sport has to offer, and I am (as the kids say) HERE FOR IT. 

Sandhagen can wrestle, but it's not something he always looks to do actively. He has five-round cardio and can keep up a hellish pace for 25 minutes. He went five hard, competitive rounds with the best in the world in Petr Yan his last time out. 

Song Yadong's last outing was a two-minute drubbing of a faded-but-still-dangerous Marlon Moraes. As much as I don't love props with a "-" sign in front of them, I bet Song ITD at -110 in that fight, and it felt like a gift. Song Yadong doesn't have the finesse of a guy like Cory Sandhagen, but what he does have in spades is hand speed and blistering power. He does mix in some pretty nice kicks, but he's largely a boxer who looks to land with heat and get you out of there. 

With a combined 8 TDs landed between them in 20 total UFC fights, it's safe to say that this fight will largely play out in the striking realm, with Sandhagen looking to use his slippery, tricky kickboxing to keep Song guessing and Song looking to time Cory's entries to land something big that sits him down. I always have to do a double-take when I see that Song Yadong is only 24 years old with 10 Octagon appearances behind him already, but it's true. It would be easy to look at this matchup and think "Song might be the future of this division, but this might be too much, too soon," but Song is already a young vet with 8 more pro fights on his ledger than the 30-year-old Sandhagen. Why can't Song's time be now? That said, I do think Sandhagen's more varied toolbox will be a tough puzzle for Song to solve. Sandhagen has never been knocked out in 18 pro appearances, but Song does have 25 minutes to land the big one here, so if you like a bet on Song, I think his KO prop or ITD is the way to go. If this fight sees the scorecards, I think Sandhagen will have been the busier fighter across 25 minutes. I'll say Sandhagen wins this fight about ⅔ of the time, which puts him at -200 or 66%. (Currently, Sandhagen is at -205 or 67%. Not much value there, but I wonder if this will get wider? I might consider a straight moneyline bet on Sandhagen and a little hedge on Song by KO to cover, but not sure yet. I'm excited for this fight, though. These guys are both impressive and fun to watch; should be a good one.)

CHIDI NJOKUANI (ORTH/SWITCH) VS GREGORY RODRIGUES (ORTH)

The tale of the tape shows these two as the same height, with Chidi having a 4" reach advantage, but I feel like when they stand side-by-side, Robocop will be the bigger, more massive guy. We shall see. Both guys are coming off very impressive first-round finishes, with Chidi taking out Dusko Todorovic with a nasty hellbow, and Robocop turning Julian Marquez into the walking dead with nasty power punches while the ref looked on and waited to sign Marquez's death certificate. 

I don't know what to do with this one, gang. Both guys are dangerous, with big power. I think Chidi is the quicker man with the more varied striking attack, but Robocop has sneaky power and picks his shots really well when he's dialed in. Rodrigues is also a highly-decorated grappler who picked up BJJ at 8 years old and became a multiple-time national champion and world champion. He also has an extensive wrestling background. I believe Chidi is a brown belt in BJJ and he has shown some ability on the ground, but he won't be on Robocop's level there. 

This isn't the first time I've typed these words and probably won't be the last, but if Robocop could be trusted to push the grappling, it would be reasonable to almost consider him a lock here. But he's clearly gunning to be nominated for what I call the Jorge Gurgel Award, which is awarded to fighters who have a massive grappling advantage but choose to brawl with every opponent anyway. Even with my doubts regarding the approach Robocop will take here, I do think he has the striking skills to survive with Chidi on the feet, and I believe he at least CAN take it to the ground if he chooses to (whether he WILL or not is a separate consideration). So I do like Robocop to win here, but I'm not sure how confident I am in that. Robocop exercising good fight IQ is like -250 here in my opinion, but I'm gonna bump that down to -165 (62%) to allow for some boneheaded in-cage decisions. (Currently, Robocop can be had for….oh wow….it's pretty much a coinflip. I can't help but think there's a little recency bias there, with Chidi having won his 2 UFC appearances very impressively; however, unless he has truly turned a corner and made some huge improvements recently, I don't know that Chidi is consistently as good as those performances would suggest. I think I gotta put a little something on Robocop at -115. There are some cardio concerns with him, though, especially if the fight goes late, so that's something to consider as well. I think I need to circle back and do more tape on this one, but with where I'm at currently, I like Robocop at a pick-em price.)

TANNER BOSER (ORTH) VS RODRIGO NASCIMENTO (ORTH)

The first thing that stands out to me on the tape here is Tanner Boser's advantage in speed and agility. He throws relatively fast, hard punches and keeps up pretty good output. He also uses lateral movement well to give his opponents a moving target to contend with. 

Rodrigo Nascimento clearly has some skills, but I have a hard time getting a confident read on him, as he seems really inconsistent from fight to fight, and even from moment to moment within the same fight. His hands look decent at times, but he also comes across as rather awkward and unathletic at times. He clearly has some skill on the ground, but he lacks the wrestling prowess to get it there consistently. 

Early in Nascimento's fight with Alan Baudot, Baudot was landing hard, clean punches almost at will, and that's what I expect to see from Boser here. The difference is that Baudot fell apart after round 1, and Boser won't. I think Boser has the TDD and the physicality to stop TD attempts from Nascimento, and even if Rodrigo does get Boser down, I think Boser will be able to scramble back to his feet and continue landing hard strikes. I think Boser eventually finds a TKO stoppage. I'll say round 2, but I think it's live anytime in the fight. Tanner Boser winning this fight about ⅔ of the time feels right to me, so I'll line the fight Boser -200 or 66%. (Currently, Boser is at -190 or 65%. No bet from me on that at the moment, but I'll be interested to take a look at Boser's TKO prop when it drops.)

ASPEN LADD (SWITCH) VS SARA MCMANN (ORTH)

I still don't really know what to make of Aspen Ladd. She can certainly be effective at times, but overall, at the risk of sounding like a hater, I just don't think she's very good. She's awkward, kinda slow, not very athletic. Her opponents have said that she's surprisingly strong, so I guess she's got that going for her. I think this fight could largely come down to whether Ladd can stop McMann's TDs, and if she can't, can she get back up? Ladd does show 62% TDD, which is pretty decent, and she's clearly strong in clinch positions. McMann shows 65% TD accuracy, and she averages 4.38 TDs per 15 min, which is quite good. McMann is 41 years old, which is concerning, but I bet her to beat Karol Rosa by decision at +400, and she came through big for me there. In the Rosa fight, McMann did a fantastic job of timing explosive takedowns, even at age 40. I think she'll need to time those opportunistic TDs in open space in order to have success against Ladd, as Ladd likely has the TDD and physical strength to defend clinch/bodylock TDs, and even if McMann gets them, she'll have to work hard enough for them that she'll tire late in the fight and allow Ladd to take over.

I'm expecting Ladd to be a decent-sized favorite here, and I may be willing to take a shot on McMann at decent plus-money. I'll personally line the fight something like Aspen Ladd -165 or 62%. (Currently, Ladd is at -130 or 56%. Potentially some value there, but I'm not confident enough in my read to bet it. Gonna be a stay-away for me, most likely.)

ANDRE FILI VS BILL ALGEO

I happened to already see the odds for this fight, so I know it's basically a coinflip, and I pretty much agree. This is the style of fight that I tend to have trouble getting a strong read on, so I really didn't bother putting much time into this one. I'm just sit back and enjoy the chaos. 

I did put 0.2u on Joanderson Brito by KO in rd 1 (at +2200!) in Fili's last fight, so that was awesome. (That info is a little out of place here, sure, but when I see an opportunity to take a victory lap on that bet, I'm gonna take it.) :)

I think both of these guys are tough and well-rounded and frankly, I think they both tend to be a little underrated. If I get bored later in the week and decide to do a deep-dive on this one, maybe I'll talk about it on Twitter or break it down deeper in my full-card breakdown video (should be out on Wednesday), but for now, I'm staying off it. 

(Gun to my head, I'm picking Andre Fili, but that's kinda just a shot in the dark. This seems like the kind of fight where if you feel you must bet it, you just take whomever is at plus-money. Neither of them is at the moment, but if that changes, I may take a stab just for fun. I also like the "Fight Goes to Split Decision" here if you've got a book that offers that.) 

If you've got thoughts on this fight, please hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) and let me know what you're thinkin'!

TREY OGDEN (ORTH) VS DANIEL ZELLHUBER (ORTH/SWITCH)

You're always gonna get the truth from me, so I'm just gonna give it to ya straight: I have almost no read on Trey Ogden. I bet him against Jordan Leavitt, thinking he would be the much better striker and would also be able to keep up with Leavitt in grappling exchanges if it went there. As it turned out, Leavitt was largely able to stymie Ogden's game and keep him at distance with leg kicks, and when Leavitt suddenly landed a few punches late in the fight, it seemed to take most of the wind out of Ogden's sails. 

Zellhuber is very young, having just turned 23 a couple months ago, but he's undefeated, and I like what I see from him so far. He's long and quick, with a nice, varied striking game. He's strong in the clinch, with good knees and good takedowns from in close. He also showed a solid top game and some hard GNP in his DWCS fight against Lucas Almeida. From what I've seen so far, I think Zellhuber is the better prospect overall, even if Ogden might be the slightly more developed product at this point in their respective careers (though, again, I'm not super confident in that, as I don't have a strong read on Ogden's skills just yet). 

Zellhuber should have the advantage in the stand-up, with his excellent kicking game and 6" reach advantage. I believe Ogden will have to wrestle to find success here, and I'm not sure how well that will go for him, either. I'm gonna favor Zellhuber here, but even if the odds seem favorable, I'm either gonna have to stay away or do more tape on Ogden to see if I can strengthen my read, but for now I'll go with Zellhuber -175 or 63%. (Currently, Zellhuber is at -230 or about 70%. Yeah, I'm probably gonna have to stay away from that. Maybe a parlay piece, but the number seems a little high to me.)

NIKOLAS MOTTA (ORTH) VS CAMERON VANCAMP (ORTH)

Pre-tape, these are my thoughts: Motta hits very hard, and while I don't currently think Cameron VanCamp is very good, I lean toward thinking his size advantage and grappling upside could be huge here. We'll see if the tape agrees. 

I remember doing tape on CVC before his Fialho fight and thinking that he likely wasn't a UFC-level talent. In his regional tape, he's an aggressive and dominant grappler, but against what level of competition? Against Fialho, he threw his grappling out the window and thought he could outstrike the striker. To his credit, he did land one good shot that rocked Fialho, but the excitement that shot created might have been his undoing. 

VanCamp holds his hands very low. He also keeps his chin pretty high and doesn't tend to move his head off the center line. Additionally, he has a tendency to kinda tighten up in pocket exchanges, and I just don't think he's super comfortable there yet, and Nikolas Motta is exactly the kind of striker who can replicate what Andre Fialho did. 

VanCamp will have a massive size advantage here, but I have my doubts that he's a good enough striker to really make that work for him in the standup, and while it could pay dividends if he looks to grapple, I don't know how much I trust him to do so after his performance against Fialho. 

Overall, I see a lot of question marks here, and it's a tough fight for me to really make a call. If I knew VanCamp would push the grappling I'd probably favor him, but based on what I saw last time out, I think I would favor Motta to be able to find a big counter when VanCamp is coming in and dead him. I'll line the fight Nikolas Motta -165 or 62%, but I wouldn't be surprised to find him as an even bigger favorite, considering his power and VanCamp's defensive holes. (Currently, Motta is at -225 or 69%. At that number, I'd have to potentially look toward Motta's KO prop–or even round-1 KO prop–but if that line gets any wider, I'd potentially be willing to consider a dog shot on CVC, but I'd also need to dig deeper into Motta's tape and get a better sense for his TDD and grappling prowess. Overall, though, I'm still not convinced that CVC is a UFC-level fighter, so it's hard to bet him against anyone who is.)

TREVIN GILES (ORTH) VS LOUIS COSCE (ORTH)

I don't like Trevin Giles. I'm not even sure if I know why, but they say it's important to state your biases, so there ya go: Trevin Giles rubs me the wrong way, I don't like him, and that may very well affect my ability to remain unbiased when betting on or against him. 

Giles does have solid skills in all areas, but he seems to struggle to put it all together, due to both mental lapses and what seems to be difficulty with suturing together the parts of his game to produce complete and effective mixed martial arts performances. 

Louis Cosce is a hard-nosed wrestle-boxer who had finished 8 opponents in a row in rd 1 before making his UFC debut against Sasha Palatnikov. It was clear in that performance that he expected to do it again, and when the first-rd finish didn't transpire, it quickly became apparent that he didn't have much left in the tank. To his credit, he did fight well through the exhaustion, but most of the sting on his punches and the explosion behind his TD attempts was gone. 

It's reasonable to assume that Cosce learned from that experience and will have worked on his gas tank and his approach to the fight in rd 1, but I also think it's just as reasonable to assume that this could be an issue that continues to plague him. 

I think Giles is the all-around "better" fighter, with a more well-rounded skillset that has been tested against higher-level competition. Cosce will be aggressive and dangerous in rd 1, but as long as Giles survives to rd 2, I think we'll see him start to take over. I'll line the fight Trevin Giles -190 or 65%. (Currently, Giles is at -210 or 67%. To me, this is a clear live-betting spot. Let round 1 play out, with Louis Cosce doing his thing, and if we see the end of round 1, consider a play on Trevin Giles, likely at improved odds. I'm gonna do some thinking about this one, and I'll definitely check out the props when they drop, but live-betting will likely be my focus on this one.)

DAMON JACKSON VS PAT SABATINI (ORTH)

I bet 10u on Damon Jackson his last time out, vs Daniel Argueta. He closed at like -800, so I was feeling real, real good about that bet. It did get a little hairy in rd 3, but The Leech came through for me, so he's kinda my boy right now. 

That said, Jackson is kinda slow and isn't very athletic. He can be overwhelmed on the feet by a quicker and more powerful athlete. Sabatini IS a quicker and more powerful athlete, and I think in a fight where both guys are strong grapplers, the athleticism could be a huge difference-maker. 

I usually do the tape without knowing the odds, but I did happen to see that Pat Sabatini is about -200 here, and while I do agree that he should be favored, that feels a little wide to me. Sabatini is the better athlete and the better wrestler, but Damon can hold his own in the wrestling, and I'd argue that as good as Sabatini is on the ground, I think Damon might be the slicker grapper, especially in scrambles and transitions. 

I need to dig a little deeper on this one, but with Sabatini currently at -200 and Jackson at +170…if Jackson got up closer to like +200, I'd probably have to take the shot. I'll also be potentially interested in the over here, as I think it's unlikely either of these guys finishes the other. I see it playing out as a closely contested grappling match.)

ANTHONY HERNANDEZ (ORTH) VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT (ORTH)

Anthony Hernandez found success with a very aggressive, grappling-heavy approach against UFC newcomer Josh Fremd his last time out, taking down Fremd 8 times on 11 attempts and racking up nearly 11 mins of control time. 

Marc-Andre Barriault's last outing was a chaotic, back-and-forth affair vs Jordan Wright that ended with Barriault locking up a guillotine for the tap at the mid-point of rd 1. 

Both guys like to come forward and make their opponent uncomfortable, so it should make for a fun fight. But who will it favor? That's the tough question. Barriault tends to favor a more measured type of pressure, whereas Hernandez will at times embrace all-out chaos and frenetic pressure, which was the story of the Fremd fight. Hernandez showed both the willingness and the cardio to chain together nonstop TD attempts and sub attempts, particularly with his slick and dangerous front headlock series. 

This is a tough call. I think the Anthony Hernandez that we saw against Josh Fremd can probably get it done here, with constant pressure, constant chain wrestling, and constant submission attempts. Barriault is tough and scrappy, but I think he could start to fold under that kind of pace and pressure. This is another spot where I need to circle back and do a little more tape, but for now, I'm gonna favor Hernandez slightly, let's say -140 or 58%. (Currently, Hernandez is at -152 or 60%. No bet from me at the moment, but maybe the over will be worth a look here? Oh, it's out: the over 2.5 is at -140. Hmm. I do lean toward thinking this goes over; I might take a shot on that.)

ALEN AMEDOVSKI VS JOSEPH PYFER (ORTH)

I'll admit I didn't watch much tape here. Alen Amedovski has been an absolute bust at the UFC level, and Joe Pyfer is…well…the guy who made Dana White say, "Be Joe Pyfer." Someone who lasted a combined one minute and 18 seconds against the likes of Joseph Holmes and John Phillips probably ain't gonna beat Joe Pyfer. 

To his credit, Amedovski can crack. He'll come out throwing hard punches early, and if he does find a win here, that's how and when it's likely to happen. I think it's much more likely that Pyfer gets the upper-hand early in the striking and/or the grappling, depending on where he decides to take it.

Pretty sure Pyfer's gonna be a huge favorite here. I'll line the fight something like Pyfer -270 or 73%, but I won't be surprised if he's a bigger favorite than that. (Currently, Pyfer is at -450 or 82%. Honestly, as much as I agree with the line that Alen Amedovski is not very good, I'm gonna have to take a hard look at his KO prop. If nothing else, Amedovski can bang, and if they dangle an absolutely insane number in front of me for Amedovski by KO (or even KO rd 1), I may have to put on my degen pants and drop a sprinkle. Although now that I've typed that out, "dropping a sprinkle" sounds more like something one should take OFF their pants for (haha). Oh…the under 1.5 is already kinda juiced at -175 here, but that might still be worth a look. Amedovski's only path to victory is an early hail mary KO, and when he loses–which he usually does–that's usually in rd 1, too.) 

MARIYA AGAPOVA (SOUTHPAW) VS GILLIAN ROBERTSON (ORTH)

Once again, we're gonna start with a disclaimer: I have at times FELT as though I had a decent read on these two, but things have ended up playing out in a way that suggested I did not. So keep that in mind. 

Mariya Agapova got outworked and outgrappled badly her last time out, vs Maryna Moroz. I was expecting Agapova to have a marked edge in strength and physicality in that fight, and I did bet her there. Clearly, I was wrong. However, I'm making that same "marked edge in strength and physicality" read again, and I don't think I'm gonna be wrong this time. I don't rate either Agapova or Robertson very high on the overall athleticism scale, but I do think Agapova's size advantage here could equate to a strength advantage as well. She also has 5 inches of reach and, while I do think Robertson is the kind of fighter against whom a reach advantage could be leveraged pretty easily, I don't know that I trust Agapova to have the technique and/or fight IQ to really put it to use. They can both be a little slow and awkward on the feet, but Agapova does have better movement and quicker, more powerful strikes. 

Gillian Robertson has won 7 UFC fights, with 5 of those coming by sub, and one coming by way of GNP TKO. In 12 UFC fights, Gillian Robertson has gotten at least one TD in 10 of them. Three TDs is her record, which she has achieved twice. Agapova has been taken down in 3 of her 5 UFC fights, and the 2 opponents who didn't take her down didn't actually attempt any TDs. Robertson is far from a stellar wrestler, but it's likely she'll get Agapova to the ground once or twice. 

This fight is a tough call, as I think Agapova should have clear advantages on the feet, and she's a solid grappler too, although she did get positionally dominated against Maryna Moroz her last time out, and Gillian Robertson can likely do the same–but that's if she's able to get her down (and keep her down). I'm kinda back and forth on this one. I think it's a close fight, and I'm gonna call it a coin flip. (Currently, it's at Robertson -137 (57%) and Agapova +117 (46%). It's gonna be a stayaway for me at the moment, but I might be willing to consider a shot on Agapova if she gets to like +150.)

TONY GRAVELY (ORTH) VS JAVID BASHARAT (ORTH/SWITCH)

This is gonna be another "show me" spot–as well as a possible live-bet spot. I want to see how Javid Basharat does against the relentless wrestling attack of Tony Gravely, who averages more than 6.5 TDs per 15 mins. 

Gravely does have a reputation as a bit of a gasser, but he landed 11 TDs on 15 attempts in a recent outing vs Saimon Oliveira, also fighting his way out of numerous guillotine attempts, and his cardio held up pretty well even with a lot of hard grappling. Gravely is a hard-nosed wrestle-boxer with solid top control and power in his punches. 

Javid Basharat is a very slick kickboxer who switches stances smoothly and uses his footwork to attack from different angles and keep opponents guessing. No bet from me here, as I'm having a hard time envisioning how the dynamic between these two is gonna play out in the cage, but that's why I like it as a possible live-bet spot: I think the dynamic might become apparent pretty quickly after the fight starts. 

I really don't know how to line this one, and even if I did, I don't think I'd be confident in that line anyway, so I'm just gonna call it a coin flip. I'm a big fan of just copping out like that when I'm not sure what else to do. (Currently, Javid Basharat is -150 or 60%. Interesting. That almost makes me want to take a shot on Gravely, as I'm a big fan of backing relentless wrestlers; however, I do worry about Gravely's gas tank holding up if Basharat is able to make him work hard for TDs. Gonna stay away for now and keep an eye on the live line.)

LOMA LOOKBOONMEE (ORTH) VS DENISE GOMES (ORTH)

Loma rules. If you don't like Loma, you just don't want joy in your life. 

Loma is the first Thai fighter to make her way to the UFC. She's one of those Thai fighters who grew up training from a very young age, having allegedly fought hundreds of muay thai matches in her lifetime. 

Her distance striking is decent, but the clinch is where she really butters her bread, not just with knees and elbows, but also with strong hips and excellent clinch TDs. Gomes also has a muay thai background, but she's more comfortable striking from range with leg kicks, straight punches, and a few more spinning attacks than she should probably throw. I think the distance striking vs clinch thing tends to be a difference between different muay thai schools/instructors. When I was training muay thai, my instructor was big on having us train the clinch because, as he said, "all muay thai schools do a good job of training the kickboxing aspect, but a lot of them don't focus on the clinch much, so if we DO focus on the clinch, we're gonna have an advantage over them in competition." Makes sense to me. 

At distance, I could see Gomes getting the upperhand, but the clinch is really where she will struggle in this fight, I think. I expect to find Loma as a pretty big favorite here, and she probably should be, but if Gomes is at a huge plus number, this could be the kind of spot where I'd take a dog shot. The She's A Dawg project (betmma.tips/ShesADawg) has been showing that blindly betting women's underdogs in the UFC can be a profitable angle. And to borrow an idea from Dale of the Punchlist MMA Podcast, "Women's Science" suggests that no woman should ever be like -250 or better over any other woman, unless that first woman is someone like Cyborg, Amanda Nunes, or Valentina Shevchenko. 

I'd like to do a little more tape on Gomes to see more of her TDD and how she looks in the clinch, but for now, I'll line the fight Loma -225 or 69%. (Currently, Loma is at -270 or 73%, with Gomes at +230 or 30%. Loma should win here, but Gomes might almost be worth a look at that number. I'll probably have to take a small poke if she gets up around +250 or better.)

Thanks for reading, y’all! If you haven’t yet, please follow me on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) and be sure to subscribe to Erik Bets Fights and NeverHedge on YouTube, as well. Thanks, everyone, and good luck on your bets!

-Erik