Erik's UFC Vegas 61 Tape Study Notes

Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan

MACKENZIE DERN (ORTH) VS YAN XIAONAN (ORTH)

At the risk of oversimplifying, a Mackenzie Dern fight largely comes down to her opponent's TDD and get-up game. If Dern is able to get you down and work with you on the ground for long spells, it's very unlikely that Dern will lose that fight. Even if she can't find a sub, her understanding of positioning and ability to constantly chain together sub attempts that her opponent must then defend, will bring her to a decision win. 

Her striking is still pretty elementary, but the recent improvements are clear. She feels more confident in her hands, and she throws powerfully and capably in the pocket, as she has no concerns about being taken down. However, she's still rather awkward on the feet, and she puts herself out of position and shows some serious defensive holes. She also keeps a high pace on the feet and pushes forward consistently, tiring out her opponents and making them uncomfortable. She certainly doesn't deathgas and can fight a reasonably hard 15 min, but she does slow considerably later in the fight, with less sting on her punches and explosion in her TD attempts. 

Yan should have a pretty massive advantage on the feet, in speed, movement, and technicality. She is the more skillful striker of the two by a pretty wide margin. That said, Dern might have a power advantage. She will almost certainly land fewer shots, but the shots she does land will likely have more pop on them. I think there's a good chance that this fight comes down largely to Yan's TDD. She was taken down 3 times in 3 attempts by Carla Esparza, but Carla is a whole different animal when it comes to wrestling. Dern isn't in her league as far as TDs. She was also taken down twice by Claudia Gadelha, but that was on 10 total attempts. As we saw in the Tecia Torres fight, though, Dern doesn't even really need a TD to get her grappling going. She's more than happy to take the back standing or work to a crazy standing kimura attempt, or whatever other crazy, creative ways she can come up with to get the fight into the grappling realm. 

In the end, I have to lean on Dern getting this fight to the ground one way or another and either finding a sub or positionally grappling her way to a decision. I'm gonna say Dern wins this fight about ⅔ of the time, which puts us at Dern -200 or 66%. (Currently, Dern is at -200. Wow. Nailed that one. Yan Xiaonan is at +170 or 37%. Honestly, I'd probably need her at like +250 (28%) to have any real significant value as a dog, and while I do expect this line will get wider, I doubt we'll get that wide. Gonna be a pass for me for now, although I'll be interested in seeing Dern's sub prop when it drops.)

RANDY BROWN (ORTH/SWITCH) VS FRANCISCO TRINALDO (SOUTHPAW)

I believe at 44 years old, Francisco Trinaldo is currently the second-oldest fighter on the UFC roster, behind only Aleksei Oleinik, who also fights on this card, at 45 years old. Randy Brown is 12 years younger and has 6 inches of height and 8 inches of reach. All of the physical advantages are in his corner. But Trinaldo has power and a ton of experience. Homie has been in the UFC since 2012 and has fought everybody. 

Randy Brown does show decent ability to use his length and fight behind his jab when he's fighting at his best, but he can't always be trusted to do that. Sometimes, he will willingly crash the pocket himself and take away his reach advantage. When he's feeling himself, though, he's a slick and smooth striker who fights behind a nice jab, which he doubles up and even triples up at times, and he even packs some surprising power when he follows up with the straight right. He's a fighter who likes to stay loose and put out volume, looking to land and touch his opponent up rather than really sitting down and loading up on big power shots. 

Trinaldo is kinda the opposite, as he can be a bit low-volume as he looks to load up on big shots, but when those shots land, it's a problem. He's had old-man strength his entire career, so now that he's actually an old man, I imagine getting hit by him is even worse. However, Trinaldo has shown a troubling tendency at times to rock his opponent and then immediately clinch with them, allowing them to recover, rather than following up with strikes and potentially finding the finish. Randy Brown has been taken down only 11 times in 13 UFC fights. Trinaldo is a solid grappler, but his TD accuracy is only 43% and he averages less than 1 TD per 15 min. Trinaldo has 12 UFC fights on his record in which he didn't land any TDs at all. It's reasonable to expect this fight to play out largely in the striking realm, where Randy Brown has nearly all the advantages–if he decides to use them. Also, Trinaldo has looked excellent in recent performances, and it's worth noting that his last two wins were against tall, rangy strikers in Dwight Grant and Danny Roberts. However, Randy Brown can reasonably be considered a marked step up from those two, and as Trinaldo moves into his mid-40s, it's reasonable to expect that the effects of Father Time could begin rearing their ugly heads any time now, and when the drop-off comes, it could be precipitous. His last fight was only 5 months ago, but in old-man athlete time, 5 months is like…I don't know…2 years, maybe? 

I've gotta favor Randy Brown here, as his advantages are undeniable, but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if Old Man Trinaldo came through one more time here. I'll line the fight Randy Brown -185 or 65%, though I won't be surprised to find him as a bigger fav than that, given all his advantages in this fight. (Currently, Brown is at -275 or 73%, with Trinaldo at +235 or just under 30%. Man, I don't know. Brown should win this fight for all the reasons we've just outlined, but Trinaldo almost seems worth a shot at those odds. I'm gonna have to keep an eye on this one. Randy Brown fighting at his smartest might cruise here, but he can't always be trusted to do that, and if he makes poor decisions in this fight, Francisco Trinaldo could absolutely come through.)

JOHN CASTANEDA (SWITCH) VS DANIEL SANTOS (ORTH)

John Castaneda is a solid, well-rounded fighter who put in an excellent performance against Miles Johns his last time out. He showed patience, technique, and fight IQ, applying measured pressure throughout the fight, and cranking up the output and intensity as the fight progressed, eventually hurting Johns with punches several times and finding the arm triangle finish early in rd 3. 

Daniel "Willycat" Santos is a Chute Boxe fighter and it shows. He employs an aggressive, sometimes flashy Muay Thai style, and he has only one mode: FORWARD. He's skilled and dangerous, but at 27 years old and 9-2, he does lack a little "seasoning." In Santos's UFC debut, Julio Arce was able to figure out his timing and land consistently on Santos as Santos continually marched forward and threw hard strikes. 

Even though he was the one pressing forward, John Castaneda showed in his last fight vs Miles Johns that he's capable of a similar performance, remaining patient and disciplined, finding his range and timing, and picking his shots. As long as Santos doesn't find a finish here, I think he'll get outfinessed by Castaneda, who should be able to find success in much the same way that Arce did: by making his reads early and then remaining elusive and countering. Additionally, though Castaneda doesn't typically look to use his wrestling a ton, it's in his back pocket if he chooses to. I don't see much of a path to victory for Santos outside of finding a KO, so I'm willing to lean Castaneda pretty heavily here, let's say Castaneda -200 or 67%. (Currently, Castaneda can be had for -185 or 65%. Not much of an edge there, but I'm willing to take a shot on that. I may look to sprinkle Willycat's KO prop if I wimp out, but we'll see.) 

RAONI BARCELOS (ORTH) VS TREVIN JONES (SOUTHPAW)

Raoni Barcelos got outworked vs Victor Henry his last time out, but I think he's gonna be doing the outworking here. Barcelos lands almost as many significant strikes per minute as Trevin Jones attempts. With Trevin Jones showing 12% TD accuracy and Raoni Barcelos showing 93% TDD, I think it's reasonable to expect this fight to play out on the feet, where Barcelos will be the better, busier, more technical, and more effective fighter. I think that's about as deep as I'm gonna bother going on this one. I think Barcelos should win this about ⅔ of the time, so I'd line it around Barcelos -200. (Currently, Barcelos sits at….exactly -200. No bet from me.)

DON SHAINIS (ORTH) VS SODIQ YUSSUF (ORTH)

I'm not at all familiar with Don Shainis. When the UFC picks up a fighter without putting them through TUF or DWCS, they usually have a "signature win" on their record that gets them on the radar, and it looks like Shainis's signature win would be Cory Pfister, whom Shainis KO'ed in under 3 minutes only 4 months go. Pfister went 1-3 in an uninspiring UFC run back in 2015-2016. He's far from a world-beater, but he's tough and scrappy, and starching him in half-a-round isn't nothing, I guess (though it's….ya know…not anything to put pen to paper about either, really). (Shainis also has a 2022 win over the legend himself, Jay Ellis, who sits at 16-106 as I'm typing this but will probably be at like 16-111 by the time you read it. If you haven't spent any time perusing Ellis's record, please do. I'm singularly fascinated by figures like Jay Ellis, who joins the pantheon of fighters like Demiah Decorah, Jonathan Ivey, Shannon Ritch, Ryan Scheeper, Bryan Robinson, Mark Long, Rory Prazak, Shawn Nolan, Travis McCullough, Dan Wheatley–guys who rarely taste victory but continue to get out there and do the damn thing, often against up-and-coming fighters they have zero chance of beating. Guys who go on losing streaks that last for more fights than most fighters will have in their entire career, but they still answer the bell. These are the TRUE "anyone, anytime, anywhere" fighters, and the sport is much better for them, in my opinion. But I digress.) 

I watched some of Don Shainis's tape, and he seems to be a good example of what "UFC level" means in the APEX era. He has some skills, he's aggressive, and he's fearless, but he also has some clear holes in his game. He's a smothering wrestler with solid top control. He looks to take his opponent down and stay heavy while landing punches when he can. In the fights I watched, he was able to pass guard and find mount pretty consistently against lower-level competition. On the feet, he's aggressive and seems quite confident wading into the pocket and unleashing big power hooks. Add in some thudding leg kicks and, for better or worse, that seems to be more-or-less the extent of his stand-up game. He clearly has some natural power and can hurt or even drop an opponent if one of those big hooks lands. Striking defense seems to be an after-thought at best, though, and a very sharp counterstriker could likely feast on him coming in. He seems to mostly use his striking to close distance so he can clinch or shoot to get the fight to where he can use his top game. He does have a number of round-1 KOs on his record, but largely against extremely low-level competition. Don Shainis is a guy who can bring some danger, but the danger he brings is largely unreliable and I would argue that much of his game outside of top control is the kind of thing that looks fine against lower-level competition but won't fly at the UFC level unless he makes some massive improvements.

Sodiq Yussuf represents an absolutely MASSIVE step up in competition. If you count his DWCS fight, Yussuf is 6-1 in the UFC, with his only loss being by decision against the surging Arnold Allen. I've already typed way too much about Don Shainis here, so I won't say much more. Sodiq Yussuf is a much, much better fighter than Don Shainis and will be a massive favorite here, I'm sure. I'm comfortable saying he should win this fight at least 85% of the time, which equates to -600. Heck, even that might be low. (Currently, Yussuf sits at -1100 or almost 92%, with Shainis at +750 or just shy of 12%. Even after everything I've said about Shainis, I may have to take a small shot on a number like that, and here's why: I don't rate Don Shainis's overall skillset very highly at all, but he is DANGEROUS. Being skilled and being dangerous aren't always the same thing. Tank Abbott is a great example. He didn't have a high-level skillset, but that didn't stop him from separating many a foe from his consciousness. Skill for skill, Don Shainis is in way over his head here…but that doesn't mean he can't win. When he does win, it's often by KO. He has power in his hands, and he swings wildly and aggressively and with a somewhat unorthodox style. Am I willing to take a 7.5-to-1 stab on the possibility that he catches Sodiq Yussuf and puts him out? Maybe. Just maybe…) (I suppose Shainis also has the possible path of getting TDs and grinding out a decision on top, but I don't think that's very likely.) 

UPDATE: Don Shainis by round 1 KO sits at +3000 on BetOnline. That's your degen stab of the week if you feel like gettin' nutty.

VIACHESLAV BORSCHEV (ORTH) VS MIKE DAVIS (ORTH)

I think the biggest difference between these two in the standup realm will be volume. Davis stays very busy, landing good volume, whereas Slava kinda stalks and waits for his moment to snipe with one big shot. Statistically, Davis LANDS more than 6 SS/M, and Slava ATTEMPTS fewer than 5. As Marc Diakiese so keenly proved, wrestling is a clear path to victory over Slava. Davis does have a wrestling background and has shown some decent TD ability, but it's not really where he typically butters his bread. (That said, Diakiese doesn't usually come out with the singlet on either, so to speak, but he sure did against Slava. Could we see Davis do the same?) 

I favor Davis here for his volume, his technical striking, and his grappling upside, though I'm not sure how much I favor him exactly. Slava is skilled and dangerous and can absolutely win this fight. I'll go with Mike Davis at -140 or 58%. (Currently, Davis is at -180 or 64%, with Slava at +155 or 39%. I feel like I'd need at least +180 or better to take a shot on Slava here, though I'll be interested to see his KO prop when it drops.)

GUIDO CANNETTI (SOUTHPAW) VS RANDY COSTA (ORTH)

I'm almost willing to skip the tape on this one and just pull a Gianni the Greek. Randy Costa is 14 years younger, 3 inches taller, and has a 5-inch reach advantage. If it wasn't for Costa's tendency to empty his gas tank in rd 1, that would be about all you'd need to know about this fight. 

Guido Cannetti is almost 43 years old and, if you count his TUF fights, he's like 3-7 in the UFC. His 3 UFC wins are Hugo Viana (who went 5-4 in the UFC, then lost one regional fight and hasn't fought since 2016), Diego Rivas (who went 2-3 in the UFC, was cut from the org in 2018, and hasn't fought since), and Kris Moutinho (who is Kris Moutinho). 

Even though Randy Costa should win this, this is exactly the type of spot where I like to take a shot on a big dog. (I haven't looked at the odds yet, but I'll be shocked if Guido isn't like +200 or so here at least.) According to my tracked record, I'm hitting "big underdogs" 38% of the time, for 47% ROI, so I guess this is kinda my specialty. If you've got the gas tank to move forward and put out volume for 15 mins, you can potentially beat Randy Costa on that alone. If we see the Randy Costa we saw in rd 1 vs Adrian Yanez, I think it's reasonable to expect Guido not to survive the first 5 mins. But if Guido does survive round 1, especially if he's able to have moments of success and make Costa uncomfortable, we could see Costa fade later in the fight and Guido start to take over. 

This feels like potentially a good live-betting spot to me, as I think it's more likely we see a busy, dangerous, effective version of Costa in that first rd. I guess I'd expect Costa to win this fight probably ⅔ of the time (or more even), so I'm gonna line it about Costa -210 or 67%. (Currently, Costa sits at -290 or just shy of 75%, with Guido at +250 or 28%.) Man, I don't know. This is the kind of spot where I almost wanna take a shot on Guido, but I'm not sure if I can get there. Costa absolutely should win this fight, for all the reasons I've already mentioned. But I do see this as a spot where the dog does have a reasonable path to victory, in that Guido is tough and scrappy, hits hard, and Costa can fade considerably after the first rd. For now, I think I'll just keep an eye on the line and then, of course, keep a very close eye on the live-bet situation after the fight begins. Far be it from me to tell anyone what to do, but I personally wouldn't parlay Costa in the -300 range. He should win this, but he has ways to lose. 

BRENDAN ALLEN (ORTH) VS KRZYSZTOF JOTKO (SOUTHPAW)

I like Brendan Allen's game. He's got pretty slick standup, nice kicks, fast hands, gets in and out of range quickly. He can be taken down, but he scrambles hard and doesn't tend to settle into a bad position. Solid get-up game. And if he ends up on top, he floats pretty well between positions. He's not really a fish out of water anywhere. If you count his DWCS appearance, he's 8-2 in the UFC. Not too shabby. 

Jotko has been fighting in the UFC for nearly a decade now and has somewhat quietly amassed an 11-5 record over some pretty solid competition, having most recently bested grapplers Gerald Meerschaert and Misha Cirkunov, both by decision. Jotko is light on his feet and quick with his strikes. He's a very versatile striker who mixes up his techniques and targets and strikes well moving forward, backward, or sideways. He excels at cutting angles and using feints to draw strikes from his opponent that he can counter. One potential downside is that because Jotko is comfortable striking in a variety of circumstances, he will allow himself to be pressured, which can look bad to the judges. 

Looking to the stats, Allen and Jotko put out a similar volume of strikes, with Allen landing about one more significant strike per minute–but he also absorbs almost TWO more SS/M. Their offensive TD stats and control time stats (for and against) are nearly identical, but one outlier is TDD, with Allen at only 50% and Jotko at 83%. I think this is a close fight, and I expect to find it lined accordingly. I'll be surprised if either guy is favored at more than -160 or so. I think I favor Jotko slightly, but not confidently. I'll line the fight Jotko -140 or 58%. This is another fight where I'd potentially bet either guy at decent plus-money. (Currently, Jotko is at -128 or 56%. Feels about right to me. No bet unless those odds move quite a bit.)

CHELSEA CHANDLER (SOUTHPAW) VS JULIJA STOLIARENKO

It's always been kinda in vogue to talk shit about Julija Stoliarenko. 

She's not a great athlete, and especially in her earlier UFC performances, she appeared to have almost nothing going for her beyond a dangerous armbar. However, she definitely seems to have gotten much more comfortable in the UFC cage and worked on improving the weaker parts of her game. She's not a fantastic technical striker, but she's aggressive and throws with power, and she can hold her own on the feet. She's strong in the clinch and can find an armbar from a variety of positions, whether operating on top or on bottom. Including exhibitions and "special rules" bouts, she has at least 11 wins by armbar. 

I didn't dig too deep into Chelsea Chandler's tape, but even if I had, there are only 5 total fights to watch. She has no amateur fights on her record, and she made her pro debut (which was also her MMA debut, period) in 2018. So she's pretty new to the game and, frankly, it shows. She looks very green, especially on the feet, where she swings wildly while lunging forward to close distance, where she can clinch up and look for a trip or bodylock type of takedown. Her top control looks ok, but if clinching up is her gameplan, she's going to be putting herself directly into the wheelhouse of the much more experienced Stoliarenko. And even if they strike at range, they both look a little wild and brawly there, but I expect Stoli's experience to shine through in that range, as well. 

I think Stoliarenko by sub is a pretty likely outcome here, and I'll definitely be interested in that prop when it drops. I guess I'll line the fight something like Julija Stoliarenko -150 or 60%. Skill for skill, I honestly think Stoliarenko is probably high enough above Chandler to warrant an even wider line, but they both fight pretty wildly, and I see this as a fight with pretty massive volatility. (Currently, Stoliarenko is at -113. Oh wow. Almost a coinflip. That surprises me. I'm gonna have to watch another Chandler fight or two and see if I'm missing something, but unless I see something that surprises me, I might have to consider betting Stoliarenko at that number. I fully expect the orderlies to show up with a bag of oranges, but so be it.) 

(Update: I watched a little more tape on Chelsea Chandler, and I'm glad I did. She's not as bad as I thought she was. I watched her fight with Brittney Victoria, and she looked pretty decent. She showed more of her striking in open space in that fight, and she does seem pretty comfortable striking, and she has decent power. Her top game also looks pretty decent in that fight, as she shows an ability to stay tight and float effectively between positions. She nearly locks up an armbar from top at one point. That's a decision that I typically don't like to see, as it can easily turn an advantageous position into a difficult one, but she was able to scramble back to her feet shortly after the armbar attempt failed, and she cracked Victoria with a right hand hard enough to drop her on two separate occasions in that fight. 

That said, I still think a 25-fight veteran (including MMA, Lethwei, kickboxing, and custom rules bouts) at nearly coinflip odds against a fighter who debuted less than 4 years ago and has only 5 fights seems like a pretty decent bet. Still not sure what I'm gonna do here for sure, but I'll be very interested in Stoli's sub prop.)

JESSE RONSON (SOUTHPAW) VS JOAQUIM SILVA (ORTH)

Jesse Ronson is a fighter who likes to apply forward pressure, but he doesn't always do much with it. He kinda just…walks forward. At times, he almost seems like he wants to be a counterstriker, but when the opportunities to counter are there, he often doesn't take advantage of them. 

Joaquim Silva reminds me of Vitor Belfort a little bit. And I love Vitor, so I don't say that lightly. He's a BJJ black belt who ostensibly has a dangerous ground game, but he'd much rather hang out on the feet, where he largely plods forward and looks to sit down on power punches until he finds the one big shot that gets his opponent out of there. 

On paper, Ronson is likely the more well-rounded of the two, with a pretty even number of sub finishes and KO finishes on his record. (Silva, on the other hand, hasn't subbed anyone in an MMA fight since he armbarred the 0-2 Victor Rizzo during the Obama administration.) 

I honestly have no idea how to line this fight. I don't think highly of either guy's game overall, and I'm having a hard time settling on a strong lean either way. Jesse Ronson has twice as many pro fights as Silva, and even outside the UFC, Ronson's level of competition hasn't been terrible. Having spent portions of his career at welterweight, Ronson will be the bigger guy (with 2 inches of height and 1.5 inches of reach), but Silva is an absolutely jacked little fireplug, so I don't think physicality will be a huge issue. 

You know how I do when I don't have a read; just gonna line it a coinflip because I have no idea where to go with this one. Likely gonna be a pass from a betting perspective, though I'd consider a bet on either guy at decent plus-money. (Currently, Joaquim Silva sits at -145 or 59%, with comeback on Ronson at +125 or 44%. I'd probably need at least +150 to feel comfortable taking a shot on Ronson here.)

MAXIM GRISHIN (ORTH/SWITCH) VS PHILIPE LINS (ORTH/SWITCH)

Grishin looks like Paul Felder's big brother (the commentary team mentioned this mere seconds after I typed it, so clearly it wasn't an original thought and I should probably have just deleted it and started this breakdown with something else, but I didn't, so here we are).

Anyway.

What really stands out to me with Grishin (apart from looking like Paul Felder’s big brother, of course, which we’ve already covered) is his efficiency and patience. He doesn't tend to put out a ton of volume, but he uses his length well and picks his shots well. Grishin can certainly be taken down, but he's a pretty solid positional grappler and scrambles to his feet pretty well. We all know Lins won the million in the PFL heavyweight tournament in 2018, but he didn't exactly have to go through a murderer's row to get there. Since stepping up to the UFC, he started with back-to-back losses to Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser at 265, and then dropped to 205, where he took a competitive decision over Marcin Prachnio his last time out. 

Lins is more aggressive than Grishin but less technical. He can get a little wild on the feet, as he looks to throw hard and really sit down on his punches. Grishin should be able to stay tight and largely pick Lins apart on the feet, though he'll be dealing with some hammers coming his way, no doubt. Lins will look to wrestle at times, but much like his striking, his wrestling is also more aggression-based than skill-based. Everything he does, he does HARD, which tends to cause him to slow down later in the fight. And as he slows down, he tends to drop his hands and get more loose and more wild. 

Overall, I like Grishin here, as the more skilled and technical guy with the better gas tank. Lins will be live the entire time–even when he's gassed, he's still dangerous–but as long as Grishin can avoid taking one big shot that ends it, he should be able to stay patient and pick away at Lins, and he might even be live to find a sub if they end up in grappling positions, especially later in the fight. I'll line the fight Grishin at -185 or 65%. (Currently, Grishin can be had for -160 or 61%. Not a huge edge there, but I think I'm gonna bet that.)

ILIR LATIFI VS ALEXEI OLEINIK

(WARNING: This breakdown is a mess. I typed two different rough drafts when this fight was booked a while back, and then I started typing another one now, and I tried to sort of combine all 3 of them together, but it got messy and confusing and repetitive and I got overwhelmed, so I eventually decided to just throw it in here as-is and provide this disclaimer. Have fun wading through this slop, and thank you for bearing with me.) :)

I don't feel like I have a strong idea of how this fight will play out. Will Ilir look to keep it on the feet and win a striking battle? Will Ilir shoot for TDs and look to work from top position? Will Oleinik look to clinch up and drag Ilir to the ground and look for subs? 

Oleinik is 3-5 in his last 8, so pretty rough going there. People forget that Oleinik isn't entirely hopeless on the feet. He's not a great boxer by any means, but he throws and has some power. But he's very slow and unathletic and is 45 years old. Latifi lands only 1.8 SS/M, which is awful. He gets hit with 2.8 SS/M. Oleinik lands 3.5 and absorbs 3.9. Ilir has never been submitted in 23 pro fights. 

Oleinik did NOT look bad in his last two fights against Sergei Spivak and Jared Vanderaa. He finished Vanderaa in the first round with his famous scarf hold, and he was quite competitive against the surging Spivak. Spivak was the bigger, younger, more athletic guy, but Oleinik was able to find mount on him in both rds 1 and 2, but with only 20 seconds left in each round. Things could have played out differently if he found those positions with more time left on the clock. 

I think a lot of people are seeing this as a fight where Latifi will use his wrestling and work from top position, but Oleinik actually has better TD percentage than Latifi and a higher percentage of control time. That said, Latifi has 100% TDD (0 for 7), with only 2% control time against, so that's also worth considering. 

I'm really struggling to figure out how likely it is that this fight plays out mostly on the feet, or mostly on the ground, or an even amount of both, and which fighter would have the upper hand in each of those situations. So really, this is pretty good matchmaking. 

I'm gonna lean toward thinking we'll see sloppy kickboxing for a while, and then we'll eventually see Latifi get TDs and hold top position and eventually win a decision, but Oleinik is always live for a sub here. I think this fight probably comes down largely to one question: can Ilir Latifi stay safe in top position and avoid subs? Olei will be working off his back and looking for Ezekiel chokes and whatever other magic stuff he's got in his repertoire. Both Ilir and Olei average just a little over 2 TDs per 15 min. Or will Ilir potentially look to keep the fight standing to avoid the danger of Olei's subs? He'll be at a reach disadvantage, but he's faster. I don't think it's unreasonable to think Olei could win a decision on the feet, as Ilir just doesn't throw enough. Definitely not feeling like I have a strong read on this fight, but I'm gonna lean toward thinking they'll spend some fairly even time on the feet, and Ilir will get maybe one TD per round and spend some time on top and keep himself safe and win a decision. I'll go Ilir at like -150 or 60%. (Currently, Ilir is at -183, with Oleinik at +158. Eff it, I'm taking a shot on Oleinik. I'll probably also put a little on his sub prop if the number is decent.)

JESSICA PENNE VS TABATHA RICCI

They say you should always state your biases. 

Tabatha Ricci is perfect in every way and there's no way she can lose this fight, because that's what my soul tells me. 

Also, Jessica Penne is 39 years old. 

I bet Ricci at -163 a while back, and I'm glad I did cuz she's like -215 now. That's about all I have to say about that. (OK, fine, I'll say one more thing: I do have some concern about Penne having 4 inches of height and 5 inches of reach here, but Baby Shark deals with a size disadvantage in every fight, so that's nothing new for her. Ricci by decision.)

That’s it, gang! As always, thanks for reading! Please find me on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) and YouTube (ErikBetsFights and NeverHedge). My full-card breakdown video should be out either Tuesday or Wednesday. Have a great day, and good luck on your bets, everybody!

-Erik