Erik's UFC Vegas 62 Tape Study Notes

Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo

ALEXA GRASSO (ORTH/SWITCH) VS VIVIANE ARAUJO (SOUTHPAW/SWITCH)

Alexa Grasso has always been good, but after alternating wins and losses for 3 years at 115, she's now on a 3-fight win streak at 125 and is potentially knocking on the door of a title shot (which, let's face it, is an absolute booby prize at 125, where a title shot basically just means an opportunity to get embarrassed by the dominant Valentina Shevchenko). 

Grasso has traditionally been thought of as a crisp and sharp counterboxer–which she is–but she has also shown some wrestling and grappling chops in recent fights, even scoring her first-ever submission victory with a first-round rear-naked choke over Jojo Wood back in March. 

Grasso is a surging prospect who seems to be having her moment right now, and standing in her way is Viviane Araujo. Currently 5-2 in the UFC's flyweight division, Araujo's last outing was a unanimous decision victory over Andrea "KGB" Lee back in May. Araujo turns 36 next month, so her time to make a move in the division is now. Araujo is vicious, hits hard, and has solid wrestling and grappling…but only for about 10 minutes. She gasses and slows way down, whereas Grasso can keep a consistent pace for 15 minutes, and I’ve seen nothing from her that suggests 25 minutes will be a problem if we get that far. 

I did see the odds on this fight, and Grasso sits at about 2-to-1. I do favor Grasso to win this fight, but that feels a little steep to me. I honestly don't mind a shot on Araujo at +175, but I think I like a shot on her to win ITD even more, as Araujo will be dangerous early but if the fight goes long, I think we see Grasso take over. Probably gonna be a stayaway for me. 

(Update: I always tell myself I'm not gonna get too cute and fancy, but I'm considering taking Grasso's ML at like -200 and hedging with a little on Araujo ITD at +550. Don't be like me. Or do. I'm not the boss of you.)

CUB SWANSON VS JONATHAN MARTINEZ (SWITCH)

Ah, Kevin "Cub" Swanson. A storied WEC career, followed by a decade-long Octagon career with more than 20 fights. He won some and he lost some, but his 10-2 run that included wins over the likes of Chucky Olives, Dustin Poirier, and Jeremy Stephens ain't nothin'--that's for sure. 

But alas, Father Time comes for all men, and deciding to drop from 145 to 135 at 38 years old isn't the same as getting a big red flag tattooed on your chest, but it's pretty close. BUT…let us not forget his last walk to the Octagon, which resulted in Cub absolutely OBLITERATING the notoriously durable Darren Elkins in a near-flawless performance that lasted just over 2 minutes. If we pull the focus back a little further, though, Cub is 5-5 in his last 10, including a 4-fight losing streak (though, to be fair, these losses were to absolute killers in Ortega, Edgar, Moicano, and Burgos). 

It's safe to say that even a 38-year-old Cub Swanson is capable of putting a hurting on lower-level UFC fighters, which begs the question of where you believe Jonathan Martinez fits into the division. 

Martinez has put together a 7-3 UFC record since debuting in the promotion in late 2018, and he's currently riding a 3-fight win streak. He's a tight and technical striker who feints well, switches stances often, and lands crisp leg kicks, both inside and outside. Both guys are capable of wrestling, but they both prefer to let the fight play out on the feet, where I think things could look pretty close, assuming Cub hasn't reached a precipitous dropoff and/or is not adversely affected by the cut to 135. 

I did happen to see that Martinez sits at -200 or 67%, which I don't love. He should win the fight, but I don't like him at that price, and the comeback on Cub at +175 isn't quite enough to make me pull the trigger, either. This fight is a pass for me unless I hear some interesting new information or the line moves quite a bit.

ASKAR ASKAROV (SOUTHPAW) VS BRANDON ROYVAL (SOUTHPAW)

Askar Askarov is a dominant wrestler and grappler with a string of very impressive wins in the UFC before dropping his last fight to Kai Kara-France in a closely-contested decision. Askarov went 2 for 14 on TDs in that fight, which cost him the win. 

Royval doesn't have the TDD of KKF. In fact, Royval is exactly the type of wildman on the feet who puts himself off-balance and out of position, which leaves him susceptible to TDs. Royval is dangerous and is always live to find the finish, either by KO on the feet or by sub if it goes to the ground, but I think Askarov is savvy enough to stay tight and technical and handle anything Royval throws his way. 

Not to oversimplify, but I see this as a "minutes vs moments" type of fight. Askar Askarov will likely be the minute-winner by employing a tight and technical game, while Royval will need to find a "moment" to win. On the feet, Royval attacks aggressively using lots of in-and-out-movement. He mixes up his strikes well and never stops attacking. In the grappling realm, he's an extremely chaotic scrambler and can find subs from a variety of positions. I suspect grappling with Royval is like trying to catch a greased-up mongoose or something. And he's got an especially good guillotine, which means anytime a wrestler like Askarov is shooting in, they're potentially sticking their neck into a black hole of danger. 

That said, I do lean toward Askarov to keep it tight and defend Royval's sub attempts and probably control his way to a decision or perhaps even find a late finish himself. I'd line the fight something like Askarov -200 or 67%. (Currently, Askarov sits at -255 or 72%, with Royval at +215 or about 32%. That's approaching a little wide, maybe? I don't see any props out for this fight on my books yet, but I'll be interested to see Royval's sub prop or ITD. At the moment, I think this one is a pass for me.)

JORDAN WRIGHT VS DUSKO TODOROVIC (ORTH)

As long as Dusko can get a hold of Jordan Wright and stifle his movement, he should be able to have success getting him down. The way I see it, you can almost always bet against Jordan Wright without even doing tape, cuz if you end up having concerns, you can just hedge by betting Wright in rd 1. 

Wright is an ultra-aggressive action fighter who actually appears to have a pretty well-rounded game if only he would adopt a style that allows him to show it off. In 15 pro fights, he's been outside the first round only twice. When the horn sounds, Jordan Wright wants to get you out of there. And if he can't do it, well, chances are you're gonna get him out of there. Those are the options. Homie is all offense. No defense and no fight IQ. As long as you can either survive his early onslaught or engage him in clinching or grappling to slow him down, you're probably gonna get your hand raised. 

Wright did show a new wrinkle in his game in looking to actively grapple against Marc-Andre Barriault his last time out, but it ended up costing him when Barriault found a guillotine choke in rd 1, and I don't think we'll see Wright look to grapple here. It's difficult to feel confident in capping a Jordan Wright fight as the guy is such a wild card early, but even given that Dusko has been finished by strikes in the first rd TWICE in his short UFC tenure, I still think it's reasonable to favor him pretty heavily here–maybe even close to the -200 range or 67%. (Currently, Dusko can be had for -185 or 65%. Not much of an edge there, but I think I'll bet that anyway as, like I mentioned earlier, I can always just hedge on Wright in rd 1 if I get cold feet.) The under 1.5 is juiced to the -220 range, but I don't mind it as a parlay piece, as this fight should end in the first round.

MISHA CIRKUNOV (SOUTHPAW) VS ALONZO MENIFIELD

Misha Cirkunov made his UFC debut in 2015 and quickly racked up a 4-fight win streak at 205. Since then, he's gone 2-6 (some at 205, some at 185) and was finished by strikes in the first round in 4 of those losses. At his best, he's a venomous grappler, having scored 5 of his 6 UFC wins by sub, but his fragility has been an ongoing issue. 

Alonzo Menifield came crashing into the UFC's Octagon with an 8-second shellacking of Dashawn Boatright on DWCS back in 2018, followed by round-1 finishes of Vinicius Moreira and Paul Craig. Subsequent losses to Devin Clark and OSP briefly had Menifield in a challenging spot, but he's gone 3-1 since, currently coming off a round-1 finish of the mysterious Askar Mozharov by way of elbows from crucifix. 

A plus athlete, Menifield excelled at football and track in college, eventually switching to MMA and debuting at heavyweight with a 38-second TKO of Zach Rosol in Bellator. 

If this fight stays on the feet, Cirkunov is in big trouble. I think a round-one  Menifield KO is very, very live here. In fact, it's probably the most likely outcome. Cirkunov will look to get the fight to the floor, but I don't know how much success he'll have. Cirkunov shows only 43% TD accuracy, and Menifield shows 82% TDD. The stats don't tell the whole story, of course, but Menifield is such a strong and explosive athlete, especially early in the fight, that he can be very difficult to take down and/or control. If the fight goes long, it could get interesting, but I lean toward thinking Menifield finds the early KO. I like the under 1.5, and I'll be interested to see Menifield's KO prop and/or round-1 KO prop when it drops. (I did see the odds for this fight already, so I know Menifield is around -220 or so. I don't mind him as a parlay piece if that's your thing.)

MANA MARTINEZ (SWITCH) VS BRANDON DAVIS (ORTH/SWITCH)

I pretty much have an "I don't have a read on this one" fight every week, and this time around, I think it's this one. 

Mana Martinez was given a shot on DWCS in 2020 after going 6-1 as a pro, with his signature win to that point being a round-one KO of the overhyped (sorry, Ricky fans) Ricky Turcios. Mana lost that DWCS appearance by first-round triangle choke and was later called up to the UFC after scoring two quick KO's over decent competition in Fury FC. In the UFC, he's won a split-decision over Guido Cannetti and lost a decision to Ronnie Lawrence in which he had his moments of success but was largely outwrestled and was knocked down 3 times. Lawrence took Mana down 6 times on 7 attempts and scored more than 8 total minutes of control time. So Mana certainly can be taken down, but he does show a pretty good ability to scramble and he doesn't often accept a bad position for very long. 

Brandon Davis picked up a win in Contender Series in 2017, only to go 2-5 in the Octagon and receive his walking papers. After going 4-0 against a reasonable level of regional competition in Gulf Coast MMA, he was brought back to face Danaa Batgerel one year ago, where he was starched in the first round. 

All told, this is a fight where I don't feel I have a strong read. Mana Martinez currently sits at -152, with the comeback on Brandon Davis at +132. If you have a strong read on this fight or any insight to share, please hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights), but at the moment, this is a total pass for me. I need to see more from both of these guys before I'm gonna feel super comfortable betting on them. 

NICK MAXIMOV VS JACOB MALKOUN

This is an interesting fight. Both guys are stifling wrestlers who have the skill, the tenacity, and the cardio to push the wrestling hard for 15 minutes, which I love to see. Malkoun shows 39% TD accuracy, with Maximov at 46%, so not super great on the accuracy on either side, but they're both the kind of wrestlers that will get in on your hips and keep stringing attempts together until they get you where they want you. 

Jacob Malkoun has already amassed 54 TD attempts in only 4 UFC fights, for an average of 13.5 attempts per fight. Maximov has attempted 37 TDs in 3 UFC fights, for an average of 12.3 TD attempts per fight. In other words, we're looking at a couple busy and relentless wrestlers here. 

One thing that stands out to me here is the size advantage for Maximov, who took his DWCS fight at heavyweight, where he weighed in at 209 (STOCKTON REPRESENT). He will have 3" of height and 3" of reach here. On the feet, Malkoun is the busier and more accurate striker, and given how often we've seen a fight between two wrestlers turn into a sloppy kickboxing match, that might matter here more than one would think at a glance. I'm willing to favor Maximov here slightly, if only because he's the slightly bigger and arguably more physical guy, as I think this could be pretty close to a coinflip, skillwise. I'll line it something like Maximov -125, or 55%. I feel like it's a close enough fight that I probably wouldn't bet either guy unless they were at like +150 or better. (Currently, Maximox is at -139, with Malkoun at +119. I do like this fight to go to decision, but the line on that is pretty juiced at -250. Maximov by dec sits at +125, with Malkoun by dec at +185. That Malkoun by decision line kinda interests me, but not enough to take a shot on it at the moment. Something I might continue to consider throughout the week, though.)

RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO (ORTH) VS VICTOR HENRY (ORTH)

Victor Henry is a well-traveled journeyman who came to the UFC at age 34, with almost 30 pro MMA bouts under his belt. He made his UFC debut back in January 2022, where he was a 4-to-1 underdog vs Raoni Barcelos. Henry managed to outwork Barcelos for 15 mins en route to a unanimous decision victory that most of us didn't see coming. 

Victor Henry's gameplan involves putting a frantic pace on you and daring you to try to keep up, and that's a gameplan that can be especially effective against an aging fighter who is slowing down. He's not a big KO threat or anything, but he's like a mosquito: he just stings you and stings you and stings you and never gives you a chance to get your game going. Against Barcelos, Henry attempted 397 strikes in 15 mins. 

With a UFC record of 11-6, including wins over TJ Dillashaw, Pedro Munhoz, Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes, and Rob Font, I don't think it's unreasonable to call Raphael Assuncao one of the best (and certainly one of the most underrated) bantamweights in UFC history. If this fight were taking place just a few short years ago, Assuncao would probably be like -800. But as we are reminded week after week in this sport we love, putting your money on a 40-year-old man still trying to make his living as a cagefighter (especially at 135 lbs) has historically been a fool's errand (please don’t tell Glover Teixeira I said that). 

I've seen the odds for this fight, so I know Victor Henry is sitting around -330 or 77%. Considering all the factors I've just mentioned, I guess I can see why, but man…part of me wants to take a shot on one of the best bantamweights of all time at +270 vs a journeyman with one UFC fight, even when that great bantamweight is 40 years old. I think it's gonna be a stayaway for now, but if this gets froggy for some reason and we see Assuncao at like +300, I might have to take a shot out of principle. 

PIERA RODRIGUEZ (ORTH) VS SAM HUGHES (ORTH)

"Sampage" Hughes kicked off her UFC tenure with 3 straight losses but has since seemed to figure out how to put it together in the Octagon, with back-to-back wins over Istela Nunes and Elise Reed–both in pretty dominant fashion, too, once she settled into her gameplan (Nunes did pick Hughes apart early). 

Piera Rodriguez made her UFC debut in April 2022 with a unanimous decision over Kay Hansen after defeating Valesca Machado in similar fashion on DWCS. 

Hughes' recent wins have come largely via a suffocating wrestling game, and Hansen did have some success wrestling Piera in their UFC bout. Hughes is quite a bit bigger than Hansen, and I suspect she'll also be able to wrestle Piera successfully. Even in a win, I wasn't especially impressed with Piera in her UFC debut, but it's reasonable to expect her to show a more complete performance in her sophomore walk to the Octagon. 

In Hughes' first 3 UFC fights, she attempted a total of only 3 TDs. However, in her most recent 2 UFC fights–which she won–she went 6 for 12 on TDs. She has clearly figured out that wrestling is her path to victory, which is good to see. 

On the feet, Piera can be a bit flat-footed and stationary, doing too much waiting and not enough throwing, but when she does land, she's clearly got some sting on her punches. Hughes uses a lot of lateral movement, which could prove effective against a rather flat-footed striker like Piera. Hughes is by no means a great striker, but she's scrappy, she's fearless in the pocket, and she can take a punch. The issues that Hughes had vs Istela Nunes were largely based around Nunes' speed, footwork, and dynamism, and she won't face those same issues against Piera Rodriguez (though, admittedly, Piera may very well look for TDs of her own, which wasn't an issue vs Nunes–or Elise Reed, for that matter). I  happened to already see the odds for this fight, so I know Sam Hughes is sitting at about +170 or 37%. This fight seems closer than that to me, so I'll take that bet. Heck, I might even be willing to favor Hughes slightly. 

TATSURO TAIRA (ORTH) VS CJ VERGARA (ORTH)

At only 22 years old, Tatsuro Taira is 11-0 as a pro and 20-0 overall if you include his amateur fights. He did fight some lower-level competition earlier in his career, but he also got wins over some pretty experienced fighters in Shooto before getting the call up to the UFC.

Dana and company are always looking to build new Asian stars, and they might have something pretty special in Taira, who is known mostly as a submission grappler but has shown a pretty well-rounded game that is only getting better every day. One thing that stands out to me when watching Taira's tape is that he stays very poised and relaxed in the cage, which allows him to maintain excellent awareness and make sound in-cage decisions. On the feet, he throws nice, straight punches and seems especially effective throwing kicks to the legs, body, and head. He wrestles well, shooting quick TDs that his opponents often don't see coming, and he transitions between positions very well on the ground. Just an impressive overall game from this young prospect.

CJ Vergara is the kind of guy who might not necessarily impress you with any particular technical aspect of his game, but he's a DOG who will fight for your money. He's confident and aggressive and scrappy and has decent skills in all facets of the game. I think with respect to his UFC career thus far, he's best described as an overachiever. In 2 UFC fights and one DWCS appearance, he's been a decent-sized underdog every time and has come out victorious twice, with the lone loss–a decision vs Ode Osbourne–being a closely-contested affair in which Vergara arguably outperformed expectations.

I've seen the odds for this fight, and I know Vergara is again coming in as pretty big underdog here. (BetOnline currently shows Taira -235 and Vergara +200.) I do agree with Taira being favored here, but I believe Vergara might be able to keep this fight close enough that if we got to the scorecards, I'd probably want to be holding that +200 ticket. Not sure if I'll get to the window on this one, but we could be seeing a hyped prospect being lined a little too widely over an undervalued dog who scraps hard and always fights for your money. For now, I'm gonna keep an eye on that line.

MIKE JACKSON VS PETE RODRIGUEZ

I haven't taped this fight, and I'm not going to.

Mike Jackson doesn't belong in the UFC. You know it, I know it, and Mike Jackson knows it.

It's arguable whether Pete Rodriguez possesses a UFC-level skillset either, but he is, at the very least, a professional fighter whose focus is squarely set on fighting. Jackson, on the other hand, is in the UFC because he used to do photography work for Mick Maynard. Seriously, that's why. Look it up.

I bet Mike Jackson at +750 against Dean Barry, and a perfect storm of ridiculous circumstances led to that bet coming through. I'm not trying to catch lightning in a bottle twice. With pro and amateur combined, Pete Rodriguez has 11 wins, 10 of which are by round-one KO. You see where I'm going with this. I'm betting Pete Rodriguez by round-one KO. 

That’s it for this week, gang. My full-card video breakdown will be posted on the Youtube accounts for Erik Bets Fights and NeverHedge Media in the next day or two. Please hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or insights to share on any of these fights. Thanks!

-Erik