Erik's UFC Vegas 65 Tape Study Notes
Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak
Hey, friends! I had to cut my research kinda short on a few of these fights, but hopefully you’ll find some helpful (or at least entertaining) info here, anyway. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights) if you have any questions or just wanna blab about fights. Good luck on your bets!
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DERRICK LEWIS (ORTH) VS SERGEY SPIVAK (ORTH)
The fact that Derrick Lewis has accomplished what he has as a more-or-less one-dimensional KO artist is astonishing. It says a lot about the state of HW MMA, of course, but it also says a lot about who Derrick Lewis is as a fighter and athlete. He is special; there's no denying it. He does have the fabled "death touch," but it's more than that. He has fashioned a game that is perfect for minimizing his weaknesses and capitalizing on his strengths and honestly, it's really goddamn impressive. Even with how limited he is stylistically, I think you can argue that there isn't necessarily a particular archetype of fighter that is tailor-made to beat Derrick Lewis. He can be outstruck. He can be outwrestled. He can be outworked, outlanded. He can be beaten, certainly. But he is that rare fighter who truly does "only need one," so no matter what your gameplan is for beating him, you have to avoid taking even one clean shot the whole way.
Grappling does likely remain the most clear path to a 'W' over the Black Beast, but look what he did to Curtis Blaydes. Look what he did to Aleksei Oleinik. Look what he did to Gabriel Gonzaga, Damian Grabowski, and Jared Rosholt (OK, I'm digging a little there, but you get the idea).
Spivak is a solid wrestler and grappler, especially for HW standards, but his game relies on finding trips and bodylock TDs from the clinch, which is a difficult proposition against Lewis, especially for a HW who is arguably a bit lacking in the strength and physicality department. We definitely don't think of Lewis as a grappler, but he's shown decent defensive wrestling and an ability to use brute strength to get up off his back.
I do think Spivak will get TDs here, but he'll be dealing with the size and strength of Derrick Lewis, and also putting himself in a range where Lewis can land his devastating hooks and uppercuts. In the Aspinall fight, we saw that pressuring Spivak and keeping him on his heels and circling near the cage can be effective. This same tactic can work for Lewis, especially early. If Spivak is able to survive the early going, Lewis will slow down, but we need look no further than the Alexander Volkov fight to see what even a tired, slow Black Beast is capable of.
I see this as a pretty close fight. What's more likely: Derrick Lewis catching Spivak early and putting an end to his night, or Spivak extending the fight later and getting to the back of an exhausted Lewis and locking in a choke (or even finishing with GNP from top)? I don't know. I think the safest bet on this card is Fight Doesn't Go the Distance, but the price on that will be pretty steep. I'm gonna favor Derrick Lewis to hurt Spivak in round one and finish him early, but only slightly. I'll line the fight Derrick Lewis -140 or 48%. (Currently, Lewis is an underdog at +145 or 41%. In theory, this should be an autobet, given the perceived value, but it's contingent on how confident I feel in my read…and I wouldn't say it's super confident. Honestly, I'd rather bet Lewis's KO prop, as I don't see him winning a decision here. And if it goes past the first round or two, I think it really starts to favor Spivak more and more. I think I'm gonna wait for now and take a look at the props when they drop. I'll likely end up taking a stab on Lewis by KO–though the bookies are wise enough that it will probably only be a few cents better than his moneyline–and the FDGTD here should make a decent parlay piece.)
ION CUTELABA (ORTH) VS KENNEDY NZECHUKWU
Pre-tape, I really thought I was gonna like Cutelaba here. I thought he'd be able to wrestle Kennedy at will, but I'm watching the Karl Roberson fight right now, and Kennedy is showing some impressive growth in his wrestling–both offensively and defensively–as well as his grappling and top game. He's floating well on top and using good head positioning to keep control. He's aggressively looking for subs early. I'm not saying Kennedy's wrestling is as good as Cutelaba's–or even close–but he's also a super big dude, and Cutelaba is a bit of a head case and can be unpredictable and untrustworthy.
Before Kennedy's dominant win over Karl Roberson, I probably would have favored Cutelaba, but I'm gonna favor Kennedy slightly here. I'll line the fight Kennedy Nzechukwu -130 or 56%. (Currently, Kennedy sits at -170 or 63%, with the comeback on The Hulk at +145 or 41%. I don't know how much line movement we'll see here, but if Cutelaba gets to the +170 range, I'll definitely take a shot on him. I think this is a winnable fight for him; just not quite willing to trust him enough to take a shot at the current number.)
CODY BRUNDAGE (ORTH) VS RODOLFO VIEIRA (ORTH)
In the Tresean Gore fight, Brundage specifically said he knew Gore was afraid of gassing, and he was gonna make him gas. That same approach could work well against another known gasser in Vieira. We saw him gas badly in the Anthony Hernandez fight, but his gas tank held up pretty well in the Chris Curtis fight. The difference could be that he didn't really end up actively grappling in the Curtis fight (Curtis stuffed 20 TD attempts), and Vieira never really found himself in dire straits of any kind.
Rodolfo Vieira shows only 27% TD accuracy in the UFC. Of course, he did go 0/20 on TDs in the Chris Curtis fight. Just out of curiosity, I calculated his TD % before that fight, and it was 52%. His TD accuracy rating literally dropped 25 percentage points in just one fight. He does show 100% TDD, but he's only faced 3 total TD attempts in the UFC–all in the Dustin Stoltzfus fight. Brundage does show 68% TDD, and he allowed only 4 TDs on 15 attempts in the Nick Maximov fight. ("Only" might be a weird word to use, as 4 TDs in one fight is quite a few, but it's not bad on 15 attempts.) And Maximox has a much better TD game than Vieira.
Neither guy is an excellent striker, but Brundage is smoother on the feet, uses better movement, and mixes it up better, I think. Both guys have big natural power. I'm not sure what to do with this fight. I've spent enough time watching tape and looking at stats that I feel a little burnt out, like I need to move on to a new fight, so I'm gonna call it good for now, but I may have to come back to this one. For now, I'm gonna cop out and line it as a coinflip. (Currently, Rodolfo Vieira is favored at -176 or 64%. Hmm. I guess that makes sense, but I think this fight could be pretty close, especially if Vieira struggles to get Brundage down. And heck, we could even see Brundage land TDs here. I'm gonna sit back on this one for now, but I may be interested in a dog shot, especially if those odds get any wider.) (UPDATE: This fight has been removed from the card.)
CHASE SHERMAN VS WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA
Two big dudes are gonna get in there and throw down, and you're gonna give me +167 on the one with three times as much experience? Call me crazy, but I'm putting some of my hard-earned dough on Chase Sherman. Don't let me down, Mr. Vanilla Gorilla.
Since that breakdown was so short that it wasn't really a breakdown at all, can we fill up space by talking about that nickname for a second? It's a weird enough nickname that you wouldn't expect it to pop up more than once in the UFC, right? But there have been not one, not two, but THREE VANILLA GORILLAS in the UFC. Most recently, Chase Sherman and Jason Witt–but the original Vanilla Gorilla was none other than Lodune Sincaid from the first season of TUF. (May he rest in peace.)
(Also, I write trivia questions for a living, so calling my money "hard-earned" is a stretch, anyway. Easy come, easy go. WAR CHASE SHERMAN, or whatever.)
MUSLIM SALIKHOV (ORTH) VS ANDRE FIALHO
This is an awesome fight. Definitely has the potential to deliver on some solid action; hopefully it will. Both guys are big hitters who were on decent win streaks before getting KO'ed in their most recent outings.
One thing that stands out right away is age: Muslim is 38 and Fialho is 28. As we know well, fighters with 10 years of youth on their opponents win at a pretty high clip. They're both relatively low-volume power strikers who look to set up and land big single strikes rather than looking to overwhelm opponents with consistent volume. They can both be a little hesitant and overly patient at times as they wait for opportunities to counter. Even at 38 years old, I think Salikhov is the more dynamic of the two, mixing big spinning kicks into his arsenal with surprising speed, and he also has the grappling/wrestling upside.
I see this as a very close fight. Based on the tape alone, I'm willing to favor Muslim slightly, but how much do we take the 10-year age gap into account here? Hard to say. I'm gonna line the fight Muslim Salikhov -125 or 55%, but this is a close enough fight that I'd consider a bet on either guy at, say, +155 or better. (Currently, it's pretty much a coinflip. I've got Muslim at -115 on one book and -108 on another. I'm staying away from this one. I just don't see an edge anywhere. I'm gonna sit back and enjoy the violence.)
JACK DELLA MADDALENA VS DANNY ROBERTS (SOUTHPAW)
This is likely to play out a more-or-less a boxing match. Well…with some leg kicks here and there.
Danny Roberts is a solid striker with quick hands and nice straight punches, when he actually decides to throw them. He can be pretty low-volume at times, and he lands at only a 41% clip. He's landed only 2 TDs in 11 UFC fights, so it's pretty clear that he's not a real grappling-minded guy.
JDM is both a better striker and a busier striker than "Hot Chocolate." He lands over twice as many significant strikes per minute. I'm not gonna get too deep into the weeds on this one, so let's leave it at this: we have every reason to believe that this will play out a striking match, and I think Jack Della Maddalena wins a fight like that pretty handily. A decision wouldn't surprise me, but JDM is definitely live for the KO here, too. I'll line the fight JDM -220 or 69%. (Currently, JDM sits at -430 or 81%. Wow. He definitely has clear advantages here and should win this fight, but that feels wide to me. Hot Chocolate can be had for +340 or 22%. If that gets any wider, a dog shot might be in order. I fully expect JDM to win this fight, but sometimes ya gotta just let the odds do the work for you and hope for the favorite to slip on a banana peel. We'll see.)
ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV (ORTH) VS CHARLES JOHNSON (ORTH)
Zhalgas is well-rounded and hits hard. He's only 1-4 in the UFC, but let's be honest: he didn't lose that Jeff Molina fight. He should really be 2-3.
This will be Charles Johnson's sophomore UFC appearance after losing to wunderkind Muhammad Mokaev in his promotional debut.
I'm already a day late getting these write-ups done and I'm not feeling great today (my stepdaughter has been throwing up, so fingers crossed that this doesn't go south), so I'm gonna cut this one short: Johnson has 5" of height and 4" of reach here. Zhalgas might be a bit more of a powerhouse, but I think they're probably on fairly even ground as far as their skillsets. I'll favor Charles Johnson slightly for his size. Let's go Johnson -125 or 55%. (Currently, Charles Johnson sits at -155 or 61%. No bet from me here. The over 2.5 seems pretty safe, but at -260, I'm not really interested.)
JENNIFER MAIA (ORTH) VS MARYNA MOROZ (ORTH)
I bet 8u on Manon Fiorot when she fought Jennifer Maia. I'm not sure if that info is actually pertinent here, but I felt like sharing it anyway. I was THAT confident that Maia was not going to win that fight. That's not to say that I necessarily discount Maia's skillset, but she is a fighter who doesn't tend to use the skills at her disposal very well. She's supposed to be a strong grappler, but guess what she never, ever, ever does? That's right: grapple. She could probably beat Maryna Moroz by wrestling, but since she almost certainly won't wrestle, there's not much sense in allowing wrestling to weigh heavily into our capping here.
Moroz's background is primarily in boxing (she started training in boxing when she was a child, and she also serves as a coach for the Ukrainian Olympic women's boxing team), but she has rounded out a pretty decent MMA game with decent wrestling and submissions skills.
Truth be told, I'm just not sure what to make of this fight. I don't have a solid read one way or the other, and I'm expecting to find it lined pretty closely. Feels like a coinflip to me, but gun to my head, I think I'm going Moroz for her size and reach advantage here. (Currently, Moroz can be had for -162 or about 62%. I was hoping to find Moroz as a dog, but as is, I'm gonna have to stay away. Maia is sitting at +142, and I'd probably need like +170 or better to even consider a shot there. This just feels like a fight I don't want my money on.)
MILES JOHNS (ORTH) VS VINCE MORALES (SWITCH)
Johns is quick and hits hard. He sets up his shots well and picks his shots well. Throws nice, hard leg kicks to slow his opponent down. His boxing looks good overall--good footwork, head movement, mixes up his shots to the legs, body, head. Hits hard. I like his game. Johns has great optics as far as how hard he throws and lands. He's the kind of fighter where even if you outland him, he could win a decision by landing the harder shots that produce more of a visual effect.
Morales uses lots of movement and feints. His volume tends to be higher than Johns', but even if he's outvolumed, Johns can land those big shots that sway the judges. Johns doesn't typically look to do a ton of wrestling, but I think he could find some success with that here if he tries. This seems like a close fight to me, and I'm expecting to find it lined pretty closely. I'm gonna favor Miles Johns slightly, let's say Johns -130 or 56%. (Currently, Johns can be had for -145 or 59%. Staying away from this one.)
RICKY TURCIOS VS KEVIN NATIVIDAD
I'll be honest: I'm not even taping this fight. I bet on Ricky Turcios against Aiemann Zahabi his last time out and Turcios shit the bed. I just feel like I need to sit back and watch what (if anything) Turcios learned from that performance and how he adjusts before I'll feel comfortable trying to make any kind of read on him. I don't feel like I have a great read on Natividad either, so I'm just gonna watch this one and see what I can learn.
MARIA OLIVEIRA VS VANESSA DEMOPOULOS
I haven't had a chance to tape this one, but it's got "STAY AWAY" written all over it for me, anyway, so I'm gonna try not to lose sleep over it. Oliveira will have a significant size advantage and is a much better striker. Demopoulos is the much better grappler, but she often struggles to get opponents to the ground. That's all I got for you. I don't recommend putting money on this fight, but if you do…hey, good luck!
FERNIE GARCIA (ORTH) VS BRADY HIESTAND (ORTH)
Fernie Garcia is mostly a boxer. He has decent hands, but he's pretty flat-footed and doesn't use much footwork. Not much lateral movement; mostly just moves straight forward and straight backward. He does have very nice boxing technique, with fluid, straight, crisp punches. He creates solid power without much space or windup. However, boxing is kinda all he does–or at least all he wants to do. If you look to take him down or even just crowd him, make him uncomfortable, make him fight on the back foot or at a range that isn't quite what he prefers, you can largely take his game away. Fernie also doesn't like leg kicks. In both the Weems fight and the Newson fight, we see him take one or two leg kicks and then start picking up his leg preemptively over and over again, as he's afraid that kick is coming. That's something that an opponent can definitely look to use against him. I would think Fernie isn't an especially difficult fighter to prepare for, as he's about as close to a strict boxer as you'll find in modern MMA. He doesn't clinch. He doesn't shoot TDs. He doesn't even really use kicks. He just wants to box with you.
Brady Hiestand is an aggressive and relentless wrestler who pushes forward and looks to grapple the second the bell rings. His striking is pretty slow and loopy, but he swings hard and doesn't shy away from exchanges. One concern I have with Brady here is that he doesn't appear especially defensively-minded when he's wading forward with big hooks to get to clinching distance. And Fernie has a very nice check hook that I think he'll be able to land on Brady pretty easily, especially if Brady's team hasn't specifically prepared for that. Overall, though, if Brady can mind his P's and Q's a little bit and stick to an aggressive, grappling-heavy approach, I think he's the perfect fighter to beat Fernie. There might be some hairy moments, and Fernie is definitely live to catch Brady with something big and put him out, but I like Brady to find success with his wrestling here and likely pick up a decision win, if not potentially even find Fernie's neck for a submission win. I'll line the fight Brady Hiestand -170 or 63%. (Currently, Brady can be had for -150 or 60%. Not a huge edge there, but I think I'm gonna bet that before it gets any wider. If I get cold feet, I think a small hedge on Fernie by KO could be appropriate.)
NATALIA SILVA (ORTH) VS TEREZA BLEDA
The first thing that jumps off the page here is Bleda's size and physicality advantages. She'll have 5" of height and 6" of reach. Also, she's just a solidly built fighter who appears quite physically strong in the cage.
I really like almost everything about Natalia Silva's game. She's quick and athletic, she moves well on the feet, she executes awesome high-amplitude judo throws…and she's adorable, too. What's not to love? She has a skillset that makes her a handful for a lot of fighters. However, I think Tereza Bleda might have a good skillset to beat her. In the Jasmine Jasudavicius fight, Silva proved that she was difficult to take down in clinching scenarios. She handled herself well there. However, Bleda has the size and physicality advantage we already mentioned, and she's also pretty good at timing level changes out in open space, which tend to be more difficult to defend. I do think Bleda can take Silva down and control her on the ground. Silva is always live to find an armbar–she's done it many times in her career–but I think Bleda can handle that. I'm gonna line the fight Tereza Bleda -150 or 60%. (Currently, Bleda sits at +160 or 38%. Yeah, I'm definitely putting a bet on that. I might even go with more than on unit. Seems like a pretty good spot. I see a sub off her back as Silva's best shot, so I can always hedge with a little on that if I get worried.)
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