PFL 1 2022

Tape Study Notes

PFL 1 2022

Despite everything that’s gone on with the PFL the last few weeks, the tournaments are starting. PFL 1 is looking like an excellent card and even though it is very hard to find lines on the fights, they are so good they are worth breaking down. ******

UPDATE - PFL lines are widely available even on DraftKings

I love the tournament style the PFL puts on and I really hope what happened is just a blip on the radar.

Full betting card will be out soon. I am waiting for all the props to come out.

Clay Collard vs Jeremy Stevens

Collard is a guy we were very high on in last years tournament. He is a former UFC alumni who fought the likes of Gabriel Benitez and Max Holloway back in the day. He’s been fighting for as long as I can remember and now a days he stays busy by taking boxing fights during the PFL “off season” last tournament he beat Anthony Pettis and Lutterbach to advance to the semi finals where he ran into Raush Manfio. He lost that fight and Manfio went on to win the entire tournament. Watching that fight back I’m really not sure how collard lost that. He won the first two rounds easy. He throws an excellent jab, rips hard to the body and uses those body shots to set up a nice 1,2 over the top. He throws a ton of low leg kicks and kicks to keep opponents at range. When in tight he does really nice clinch work. His dirty boxing is some of the best in the game and he mixes in knees that often find the mark. A boxer at heart but very well rounded. He was knocked out in his last boxing match, back in December, but it was against a monster in yoelvis Gomez. Collard showed toughness and never stopped throwing punches back despite being rocked hard. It was a standing tko. He was never out cold.

Jeremy Stevens is a guy we know very very well. He’s a ball of power. He’s 5’9 will have a 3 inch reach disadvantage (same as Manfio) and he comes to every fight with intensity. He swings winging hooks with bad intentions. He is constantly moving forward looking to put your lights out. He’s an interesting fighter because he has only ever fought top UFC competition, but he has a TON of losses. He’s lost his last 5 in a row, besides the no contest against Yair and he’s lost 13 of his last 21 fights. Winning at less than a 50 percent clip. Is that because he’s facing the best of the best? Very possibly. Is it because his style is outdated and incredibly bearable? Also very possible.

By following both fighters on social and seeing their prefight interviews, both dudes are ready to fight and feel like they have something to prove. Neither guy is underestimating each other. Jeremy stephens has power, but that’s it. Collard should be the much slicker striker and that will show as the fight goes on. Collard has a good chin so not super worried there. This is a very similar matchup to the Manfio fight and I think collard won that. Stephens is a good fighter who is always dangerous, but I can’t back that style. Collard by decision

Don Madge vs Raush Manfio

Madge is a former UFC fighter who actually never lost in the UFC. His last ufc fight was against Ziam. It was a boring fight which saw a lot of clinch work. Madge claims it was hot in the arena that night and it effected his breathing. He still won the fight easy. After that he had multiple fights fall through and had a 2 year layoff. In that time the ufc dropped him and he signed with the pfl. He won his first fight against Nathan Williams by rear naked choke in the second round. He was a -800 favorite in that fight and I didn’t love how he looked. He got taken down early and he let Williams hit him with some good shots. He throws a nice jab, a good 1,2. Very accurate with his hands. Likes to work in the clinch and throws thudding kicks to the body.

Manfio is our guy. We interviewed him after his Million dollar tournament win last year and he couldn’t be cooler. His story is incredible and it makes you realize why the guy is as tough as he is. He won his last 4 in a row against all killers. Manfio has a piston for a right hand. He sets it up will with his jab and launches himself into the fire with that right hand. He thrives in the clinch where he utilizes good uppercuts and knees. Manfio is jacked. Almost always has the strength advantage.

Don Madge is no pushover, but Manfio showed his heart and skill in last years tournament. Madge will be a popular bet since he went 2-0 in the ufc, but he hasn’t faced the level of comp Manfio has. Manfio wins by decision

Antonio Carlos Jr vs Delan Monte

Shoeface is a guy I tried to fade all last tournament. It didn’t work out for me at all, as he went on to win the entire thing. He’s a grappler by trade, but he is very long with a 79 inch reach. He has a nice jab and does have some power. He’s slow and plodding on the feet. He looks to bring all his fights to the ground. Once it’s on the ground it’s his world. He has excellent subs and showed that against Martin hamlet in his last fight. He got the fight down with a little over a minute left and got the rear naked. He is willing to stand and strike. Doesn’t rush the takedown

Not going to lie I’m scared of Delan Monte. This guy is an absolute monster. His level of comp is no where near the level that shoeface has seen, but he has done well against the scrubs. He’s 8-1 with 6 finishes. His one losses was 4 years ago and it was by sub. He hits like a truck, he’s super aggressive and he has looked slick on the ground. He looks for takedowns off of wild scrums. His chin did get touched in his last fight, but he was able to battle through it

I want so badly to fade shoeface again, but I can’t do it here. This is a bad matchup for Monte. Shoeface survives a possible early scare to get a takedown and a sub or he rocks him on the feet and gets a sub. Shoeface is the play

Natan Schulte vs Olivier Aubin Mercier

Schulte is a two time PFL champ. He is training partners and best friends with last years champ Raush Manfio. Schulte didn’t get a shot last year after going 1-1 with a split decision. This did not get him enough points for the playoff. When asked about what happened last year Schulte had this to say “I didn’t fight very well. Not 100%. Not like 2018, 2019. But this year, I’m very angry, for fighting. Like a shark on the ground. [I’m going to] finish my opponents.” Even though he wasn’t happy with the performance against Alexander Martinez, it was a pretty dominant one. I didn’t agree with the split at all. Schulte dominated with his grappling. He has excellent judo trips and throws and is one of the best I’ve seen in a scramble. Never takes bottom, will keep working till he ends up on top. His striking is sharp, however he can be hit. Very well rounded and has fought great competition throughout his career

Mercier is another former UFC fighter. He had some good wins in the UFC including wins over Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. He then lost 3 in a row and got cut from the organization. He joined the PFL and is 2-0. He beat Held and Horcher. Two very game opponents. He is a grappler. He too is a judo black belt and looks to push opponents up against the cage and drag them down. His striking is a bit herky jerky, but he does come with power. He leaps into his opponents with a long 1,2. He is massive for the division. Uses his cardio and strength to win fights

If Mercier doesn’t have success in the grappling I think he’s in some trouble here. Schulte is the real fucking deal and I think he wins this fight. Their judo will cancel and Schulte is more fluid on his feet. I don’t expect cardio to be an issue for either fighter

Cory Hendricks vs Emiliano Sordi

Hendricks is 1-1 in the pfl with a submission win over Marthin Hamlet and a decision loss to Chris Camozzi. He is a former TUF contestant and has wins over Khalil Roundtree and Marcel Fortuna. He trains out of syndicate mma. He was losing that fight to Hamlet before finding the sub late in the 3rd round.

Sordi is a beast. He was on a 6 fight winning streak before a draw and then losing us money against Shoeface. During that win streak he had 5 finishes. He hits hard as hell and once an opponent is hurt he has the subs and ground and pound to finish the fight. He had an opponent change on 3 days notice for this fight. He doesn’t seem to care much, stating “I keep training, every day. I feel good,” Sordi said Monday. “For me, fight is fight. Fight in the tournament, out of the tournament, fight is fight. But now it’s a new opponent, they changed my opponent in the last three days. It’s a different fight, but again, a fight is a fight. I like to fight.”

This is a bounce back fight for Sordi. I agree with his own breakdown stating that they are similar fighters, but I have more power. Sordi is going to get the finish over the always tough Hendricks

Alex Martinez vs Stevie Ray

Martinez had so much hype coming into the pfl and has shown why. He beat one of the toughest guys the pfl has to offer in Loik in his first fight in the organization. He then fought Natan Schulte to a split decision and lost a rematch to Loik. They have been giving him no breaks. He has excellent footwork. Comes from a Taekwondo background. He isn’t scared to grapple. He showed against Loik and Schulte that he doesn’t stop working off his back and when given the chance he can reverse position. He was actively looking for his own takedowns against Loik and landing them. Once on the ground he was able to transition to mount. This kid is no joke

Stevie Ray is yet another former UFC fighter and he is coming off a win over Michael Johnson. He hasn’t fought mma since 2019. He has some really nice wins including MJ, joe Lauzon and Ross Pearson. He even holds a heal hook win over paddy Pimblett in a grappling match. He’s a well rounded fighter. He owns his own gym in Scotland. He is coming out of retirement for this fight. I actually think he lost that fight against Michael Johnson. He has some power and his striking is improving

I don’t like the long layoff and retirement from Stevie Ray. Martinez has been fighting killers during that time. Martinez goes out and finishes the always tough Stevie Ray

Martin Hamlet vs Teodoras Aukstuolis

Hamlet is a decent fighter. He has some good takedowns and has shown that he can be a submission threat. Problem with Hamlet is he gives up in fights. He was winning that fight against Hendricks before getting tired and giving up the choke. He only beat Cezar because Cezar was hurt and basically took a dive to get his show money and then he got demolished by shoeface. He’s a near -300 favorite in this fight and he has done nothing to show that. He even got finished by modestas Bukauskas.

Teodoras is a Lithuanian fighter who spent a long time in Sweden and now fights out of Croatia. He trains at Cro Cops gym. He also looks like he’s been taking some of Cro Cops Vitamins if you know what I mean. He’s 11-5 and hasn’t fought since 2017. He’s an interesting fighter because he’s alternated wins and losses against low level, but he also has a ko win over Bruno Capelozza and we know how good he is. Teodoras is wild. He throws everything with huge explosion and he’s strong as hell.

Teodoras is basically an unknown at this point, but I’ll take him. I don’t like Hamlet at all. Maybe a small play on Teodoras round 1

Omari Ahkmedov vs Victor Pesta

Ahkmedov is a guy we know very well and that I love to bet on. He is strong as an ox and comes in with a game plan of push you against the cage and take you down. He’s very good at it and very hard to stop. He has some gas tank issues and it hurts him sometimes. It cost us in his last fight. He’s still only 34 which is shocking to me. He’s fought some of the best guys in the world and has never looked out classed

Pesta was a former ufc heavyweight and got finished by Derrick Lewis, tybura and Oleinik before getting cut. He trains at Sanford mma and at 205 he is massive. He will have a 6 inch reach advantage in this fight. He hits hard and is riding some momentum coming into this fight

The line is way off in this fight. Yes Pesta hits hard, but Ahkmedov has dealt with hard hitters before. Pesta leaves his chin wide open and is just overall a pretty sloppy fighter. This doesn’t bode well against Ahkmedov. The reach advantage won’t matter, because Ahkmedov will bring it to wrestling range. I actually think Ahkmedov finishes this fight

Bruce Souto vs Rob Wilkinson

Bruce Souto is a Brazilian wrestler. We won some money on him in PFLs challenger series. He hadn’t shown much finishing ability prior to that fight, but he came out and won by flying knee. Dude is on a serious winning streak and he has the athleticism and wrestling to be a problem.

Wilkinson is a boxer who is known for getting knocked out by Israel Adesanya. He is a knockout artist himself. Most of his wins coming by tko in the first round. He says he is in a much better spot mentally now than he’s ever been. He admitted to struggling with mental health and burn out. He takes confidence in the fact he’s trained with jimmy Crute and Izzy and feels like he knows what he can do. He’s not impressed at all by Bruce.

Wilkinson will be the bigger man in this fight and will be much sharper on the feet. The fact that Bruce got that knockout actually makes me like him less here. I wish we got to see some of that wrestling, because that is what he will need here. If he stays on the feet he will get finished. He’s too sloppy. I wanted so badly to take Souto here but after doing the research I just can’t do it. Taking Wilkinson by tko

Clinton Williams vs Simeon Powell

Williams is 9-5 fighting out of fortis mma. He’s on a two fight winning streak. He likes to force his opponents up against the cage and work dirty boxing. He is 5’11 but has a 77 inch reach. He Carrie’s a lot of muscle and it shows early on in fights.

Powell is only 23 years old and he is HUGE. The guy is 6’5 with an 80 inch reach. 4 of his 5 wins are by finish and he is undefeated so far in his young career

This is a set up fight for Powell. He will be to big for Williams and end up getting the finish