PFL 3 - Welterweights + Lightweights

Betting card + breakdown

PFL 3 - Welterweights + Lightweights

Bets

Olivier Aubin Mercier +100 Bet 3 units to win 3

Brandon Jenkins -130 Bet 2.6 units to win 2

Props

Olivier Aubin Mercier ITD +450 Bet 1 unit to win 4.5

Olivier Aubin Mercier by TKO +900 Bet .5 units to win 4.5

Olivier Aubin Mercier by TKO round 1 +1600 Bet .25 units to win 4

Olivier Aubin Mercier by TKO round 2 +2500 Bet .25 units to win 6.25

Clay Collard ITD +120 Bet 2 units to win 2.4

Magomed Magomedkerimov ITD +100 Bet 3 units to win 3

Parlays

Golstov + Collard + Schulte = +106 Bet 4 units to win 4.24

OAM vs Shane Burgos

OAM is a guy I tried to fade too many times. He’s now made me a believer. The guy is good everywhere. He fights very smart. You cannot bait him off his gameplan. He’s strong for the division and massive. He uses cardio as a weapon. He does have power on the feet. Has looked better every time out.

Shane Burgos is an exciting fighter. He likes to brawl. He has excellent boxing and is willing to take one to give one. He’s relied on his chin throughout his career. He is now moving up in weight. This may help his chin, but Burgos has relied on being the bigger man in every matchup as well.

This is a bad matchup for Burgos. I think OAM is better everywhere and the former UFC standout fade continues. OAM KOs the once granite chin of Burgos

Clay Collard vs Yamoto Nishikawa

Collard is a guy we were very high on in last years tournament. He is a former UFC alumni who fought the likes of Gabriel Benitez and Max Holloway back in the day. He’s been fighting for as long as I can remember and now a days he stays busy by taking boxing fights during the PFL “off season” last tournament he beat Anthony Pettis and Lutterbach to advance to the semi finals where he ran into Raush Manfio. He lost that fight and Manfio went on to win the entire tournament. Watching that fight back I’m really not sure how collard lost that. He won the first two rounds easy. He throws an excellent jab, rips hard to the body and uses those body shots to set up a nice 1,2 over the top. He throws a ton of low leg kicks and kicks to keep opponents at range. When in tight he does really nice clinch work. His dirty boxing is some of the best in the game and he mixes in knees that often find the mark. A boxer at heart but very well rounded. He was knocked out in his last boxing match, back in December, but it was against a monster in yoelvis Gomez. Collard showed toughness and never stopped throwing punches back despite being rocked hard. It was a standing tko. He was never out cold. His combos against Jeremy stephens were ridiculous. Collard is one of the best strikers in the sport

Yamoto is only 20 years old, but he’s had over 30 pro fights dating back to when he was a young teenager. He’s fought very very low level of competition and has fought at welterweight and lightweight just to get fights. He’s a smaller lightweight weighing in at 153.5. He is a submission fight. Nice knack for taking his opponents back. He’s been in some wars. Has okay power

Yamoto is way out of his league here. Collard is a savage and his volume striking, body work and overall game will be way too much for the kid. Collard ITD is a great bet this week

Brandon Jenkins vs Zach Juusola

Juusola is your classic journeyman fighter. He’s been around forever. He’s got some names on his record you would recognize, but he’s lost to all of them. He has decent boxing and decent wrestling and can beat a lower level scrub. He can also lose to a pretty low level fighter. Not much power, but technique is there. Rips to the body. Looks for takedowns when he gets in trouble and that seems to happen often. Once on the ground he’s not much of a submission threat. We won big on him in his last fight. The guy he was fighting was just not good.

Brandon Jenkins has such a weird style. Hands down low, bouncing back and forth, eating punches he shouldn’t get hit by, but man does he have some power. He’s moving up in weight and says he really isn’t cutting much weight at all. Weighed himself after a full Easter dinner and was still only 177. He’s decently well rounded. Has been working with Jordan Leavitt for his ground game for this fight.

Brandon Jenkins is not very good, but I think he finishes Juusola here. Juusola looked dominant because the guy he fought gassed after two seconds. That won’t happen here. Jenkins has been in with way tougher comp. Jenkins finish prop if it comes out

Natan Schulte vs Steven Ray

Natan Schulte is better than Ray everywhere. This isn’t a close matchup. Expect an easy win and a probable finish for Schulte. Ray would be a great story if he won though

Dennis Golstov vs Cezar Ferreira

Ferreira took this fight on one day notice. His last fight he legit took a dive with a pre existing injury. Can’t bet the guy against anyone, not to mention against Golstov who is legit. Golstov wins by domination

Magomed Umalatov vs Dilano Taylor

Umalatov is a savage with a lot of advantages in this fight. Taylor will be the faster of the two and I thought there was a little value in him at +300. That line has been bet down and I no longer would bet it. Value side has flipped to Umalatov. Parlay him or take his finish upside. I’m probably staying away though

Raush Manfio vs Alex Martinez

This is a very close fight. Manfio is probably the more skilled guy and he has more power, but Martinez will be the more active fighter. Stay away fight

Magomed Magomedkerimov vs Ben Egli

Egli is trash and will be finished here. The under 2.5 is playable and that covers the hail Mary sub attempt from Egli. You shouldn’t need it though if you can get the ITD prop for Magomed