"Trust Your Own Read"

Is it good advice for MMA handicappers? Maybe not.

Spend any time on MMA Twitter–especially the subgroup that consists largely of bettors and handicappers, and you'll no doubt hear over and over the importance of "trusting your own read" when handicapping fights. 

Do the tape, check the stats, stalk the socials, make your read. And whatever you do, don't you dare change your mind, especially if you're a content creator and have expressed that read publicly on Twitter or YouTube. After all, you put the work in, right? You analyzed each fighter's skills. You considered their ground games. You compared their standup. Heck, you even watched all the way to the end of each fight to see how their cardio held up! Why wouldn't you trust your read after all that effort?

Well…who are you? How long have you been capping? How's your record so far? Are you winning? Are you losing? Why?

If you're a long-term winning capper who has spent years honing your eye, sharpening your analysis skills, and climbing the BetMMA leaderboard, then hell yes, by all means, trust your read.

But let's say you started capping three months ago, and you've had a couple good events, but you're down 12 units. And let's say SupremeFightPicker and Johnny_Parsons_Wears_A_Wig and MMAORDIE, all experienced cappers who enjoy real estate in the top 10 on BetMMA (I made them up, but let's say), are on the opposite side of your most confident read on the card. Still gonna trust your own read?

It's nothing personal. Hope we're still friends after this, but…you shouldn't.

Capping is a skill and, like any skill, it improves if you work at it. If I'm a newer capper, and a proven long-term winning capper provides a detailed and well-reasoned argument against my read on a fight, I'm jumping ship. I'm erring on the side of experience and expertise. I'd be foolish not to.

There seems to be a prevailing attitude in the MMA Twitter betting community that it's a sign of weakness to pivot away from a read because of information presented by another capper. How on earth did this happen? It flies in the face of everything we know about how people learn and how skills improve.

I've had several experiences where I've changed my mind on a read or even hedged out of a bet because a capper I respect presented info I hadn't picked up on. The "should've trusted your read" crowd came out of the woodwork to make their feelings known. Even in an instance where my initial read ends up coming through, deferring to an "expert" is still the more logical course of action. Just like a winning bet isn't always a good bet and a losing bet isn't always a bad bet, a pick that ends up losing in the end was still the more logical choice when it's where the sharp minds were at.

After all, isn't learning from people with more advanced skills and knowledge literally the basis of our education system? If my math professor gets a different answer to a problem than I get, am I going to "trust my own read," or am I going to think, "Hey, this guy who is much better at this than I am thinks I'm wrong; I should probably pay attention to that"? 

When it comes to skill development and subject-area knowledge, all opinions are not created equal. The idea that one person's opinion is just as valid as another's seems to have taken a foothold in our zeitgeist in recent years (I have a pretty good idea how it happened, but I'm not looking to get political here). But when it comes to capping fights–a process that in the right hands employs high-level analysis skills developed through hours of grueling research and endless amounts of trial and error–well…that just ain't holdin' water, partner.

When a court case needs blood spatter analysis, do they call in some guy who thought 'Dexter' was cool and read a few internet articles? No. They put their trust in a proven expert, with years of experience under their belt. And when it comes to capping–or anything, really–you'd be wise to do the same.

It's unusually difficult in a testosterone-fueled and male-dominated sphere like MMA to untangle ego from opinion, especially when that opinion was forged through diligent research and thoughtful analysis. But there's a word for changing your stance when presented with solid information from a reliable source, and that word isn't "weakness."

It's "science."

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Erik can be found on Twitter (@ErikBetsFights), YouTube (Erik Bets Fights), and Instagram (Erik_Bets_Fights).