UFC 277 Tape Study Notes

Full card analysis

UFC 277

Julianna Pena vs Amanda Nunes

This fight is relatively easy to breakdown. Amanda Nunes is more skilled than Pena in every area. She won round one of that fight with ease and had Pena in some bad spots. Nunes gassed out, got cocky, became defensively liable and lost the fight. Amanda is saying that she lost focus and was not prepared like normal. I have to think there is truth in that. Penas key to victory is to make this fight dirty. She won the title by being tougher than Nunes. She needs to wrestle and grind her out. If Nunes comes in shape and motivated she wins this easy. I’m thinking she’s embarrassed and ready to get the strap back. Nunes by finish round 1-3

Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara France

Moreno is one of the best stories the ufc has to offer. He was let go from the promotion after losing back to back fights to Pettis and Pantoja. He battled his way back into the ufc and fought to a draw with askar Askarov. He then went on to beat 3 of the baddest dudes in the division and earned a title shot which ended in a draw. He looked great in that fight and proved he was the better man in the rematch by rocking Fig and submitting him in the third round. He also genuinely seems like a good guy. He is still only 28 years old and he is good everywhere. His boxing and footwork is excellent. He’s fast. He has good wrestling and submissions. The dude is the real deal. He lost his last fight to Fig and they are now 1-1-1 in the trilogy. Moreno has talked a lot this camp how he put on muscle. Interested to see if this helps or hurts him here

France probably has the best power in the weight division. Cody has no chin, but anyone was going down after that. He also knocked out Rogerio Bontorin who was known for his chin. France was on the ultimate fighter back in the day, but has come a long way since then. He’s also fought The Who’s who of the division only losing to Moreno and Royval. I think he learned a lot from that Royval fight. He had Royval rocked badly in the beginning of the fight, rushed in and got rocked himself. Against Cody we saw France rock him, keep the pressure on, regain composure and go right back to the well. France is only 29 years old and he’s a student of the game. He trains at city kickboxing with the best in the world. I loved what I saw from France in the askar fight. He was confident in his ability to get back up and was confident in his hands.

This is such an amazing fight and both guys have grown so much since their first fight that it doesn’t even feel like a rematch. Moreno is a beast, but he does get clipped and France’ hands have only gotten better. I like the power and athleticism of France to trump the always tough Moreno. France gets the strap

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich

Derrick Lewis is someone we know very well. He’s one of my all time favorite fighters and has some of the best knockouts in UFC history. He’s also electric on the microphone. Has wins over the very top of the division and has been a top 10 heavyweight for a long time now. Definition of one punch ko power. He is sneakily very athletic. One of the most explosive guys to grace the octagon. He’s explosive in multiple ways too. He obviously has explosive punches, but he explodes to get up from takedowns and more recently has been using his explosiveness to get takedowns of his own. My one question of Lewis is how much does he want to fight anymore? I haven’t seen a single interview since his last loss. This could be a good or bad thing. But he’s never taken damage well. He has horrible body language when he gets hit. He plays possum at times, but I think it’s more of a negative than a positive. He gets hurt to the body easily and in his last fight he folded when hit by Tui. In no way do I think he took a dive, but I do think he wanted out

Pavlovich is an absolute monster. Pretty sure he was in trouble for roids at one point and I’m not sure he ever came off them. Almost all his wins are round 1 knockouts and when you look at him that’s not a shocker. He’s massive and has an 84 inch reach good for a 5 inch reach advantage. His level of comp is no where near the black beasts. He basically only boxes. No kicks and no wrestling. Got out wrestled by Overeem and got finished. Kid is hitable, but you are in range when you hit him and he only needs to hit you once

If Derrick Lewis is motivated he wins this fight. I think Lewis is an underrated martial artist. People like to say he just has power and all this, but he’s sneaky good everywhere. He plays that shit up that he’s not a martial artist. They are fighting in Texas again and Lewis will want to show his home crowd he’s still got it. Lewis by ko round 1 ** update - I loved seeing Derrick Lewis on media day. He was in good spirits, seems motivated to get that win and I’m even more confident in him now

Alexandre Pantoja vs Alex Perez

Pantoja is a very well rounded fighter who has fought the best in the division. He choked out Brandon Royval in the second round of his last fight. He came out on top in a  back and fourth fight against manel kape. He lost to askar Askarov in a crazy high level fight. Before that he kod Matt shnell and lost by decision to dieveson figurieredo. He has decent power for the division and an amazing ground game. He out scrambled the scramble master in Royval. Love how Pantoja has been talking leading up to this fight. He’s saying he’s the dark horse and can’t wait to fight for that belt. He also credits ATT for him feeling comfortable in matchups against wrestlers like Perez

Perez is a monster. His only two losses in the ufc are to dieveson and Joey B. He throws brutal leg kicks, has great subs and is a great wrestler. He is super well rounded and has only lost to the top of the division. He’s had 6 fights canceled on him now. Some of the cancellations were on him and some on the opponent. He talked a lot at media day how he is ready to get paid.

Pre tape I really like Pantoja, but now I’m leaning on staying away. Pantoja struggles with wrestlers at times and I know he says training at ATT for 4 years has helped him in this category, but I’d have to see it first. I still think Pantoja is the side, but I’ll be staying away

Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith

Anthony Smith is trying to convince himself he can win this fight. All week he’s been saying things like “I don’t understand the hype” “he isn’t the second coming of Jesus” “he isnt the boogy man”…. He may not be, but he might be the best 205er in the world. I’ve been impressed with Ankalaev every time out. His striking is on point. Has some of the most accurate hands in the sport. He uses distance as a weapon and has made it look easy at times. His one loss was a huge fluke. Not only will Ankalaev have huge advantages on the feet, but he will be able to take down smith whenever he wants. I actually think we see a little more aggressive Ankalaev here and that doesn’t bode well for Smith. Ankalaev by tko

Alex Morono vs Matthew Semelsburger

Morono has fought and beaten very high level comp. he’s got good boxing, good takedowns and he’s never been submitted in his career. He’s won 3 in a row now over cerrone, Zawada and Gall. He’s literally as tough as they come. He’s been talking about how his durability is what got him here. He explains further that he trains balls to the wall all year round. He’s been doing a lot of sparring with Geoff Neal and that’s a good partner to have. I was not impressed with his performance against Gall. Yes he beat him easily, but he got hit quite a bit and couldn’t put Gall away. Gall is not UFC level

Semelsberger was a former football player for Marist college. He played safety and is a good athlete. He has a great ko win over Jason Witt and before that surprised me by beating Carlton minus. His last fight was a decision loss to Khaos Williams. He showed good composure in that fight and was able to take the heavy shots from khaos. He has big knockout power himself. He is primarily a standup fighter and stated himself that most his wrestling is just instincts, but he’s working on it. He absolutely floored Martin Sano in 15 seconds. He is an explosive striker. His last fight against aj Fletcher was impressive. He was able to hang in a high paced fight and overcame getting out wrestled in the first to win a clear Dec. he talked about how the key was to remain calm and I love to hear that from a fighter

Semi is improving every time out. He will have more fire power than Morono and I don’t think Morono has the tools to take down semi and keep him there. Morono is to hitable and I think he gets kod

Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves

Dober is a beast. He’s only ever lost to the very top of the division. He’s got power in his hands, good boxing, showed good takedown defense, get up ability and even landed a few takedowns of his own against Brad Riddell. He is one of the leaders over at elevation fight team. His only losses since 2017 are to Beneil, Islam and Riddell. His wins aren’t over the best comp, but he has shown he is upper echelon of the division. His heart was on full display in his last fight. He got his ass kicked in the first round by Terrance McKinney. Some refs would have stopped that fight. He was able to survive McKinney was gassed and he ended up getting the finish of his own

Alves is an explosive athlete. He has a Muay Thai and BJJ background and he has taken those skills and become a very complete fighter. He’s fought twice in the UFC both against top competition. He lost to Damir Ismagulov, but he was able to show a lot of success in that fight and his cardio held up. His next fight was against Mark Diakiese and he blasted right through him and got the sub round 1. He was supposed to fight in April, but has to pull out due to a broken hand. He talked about how he couldn’t afford the surgery, so hopefully no lingering effects there.

This is an amazing fight and I suspect they will get to work right away until someone drops. I think that will be dober. Alves round 1

Don’Tale Mayes vs Hamby Abdelwahab

Hamby shouldn’t be in the UFC. Yes he was an Egyptian wrestler, but he has not impressed me in any of his fights. Mayes looked legit against Parisian in his last fight. Mayes is confident and will have nearly a foot reach advantage. Mayes by tko round 1

Drakkar Klose vs Rafa Garcia

Klose is an excellent fighter. He has great takedowns, excellent fight iq, hits hard on the feet and he’s fought and beaten some really good comp. He has been kod in the past, but it was against the top of the top of the division. He put any injury doubts away after destroying Brandon Jenkins.

Garcia is 27 years old and is 12-2. His only two losses are his last 2 fights and his only 2 ufc fights. UFC matched him up right away with nasrat on short notice. He showed extreme toughness in that fight. He got hit with some bombs, but just kept coming. He never stops moving forward. His next fight was against Chris Gruetzemacher and this was a wild fight. Garcia hurt Chris early and went for the finish. Gruetzemachers volume and constant pressure is what won him the fight. Garcia was able to get takedowns throughout the fight, but wasn’t able to do much with them. I’m not taking too much away from Garcia in these fights. He showed toughness and the ability to hang with legit ufc fighters. On his Instagram I noticed he put in some work with Justin Gaethje, Usman and drew dober. His main training partner and mentor is cub Swanson. 

Drakkar Klose does everything that Rafa does, but does it a little better. My one concern is that Rafa is straight up just tougher than Drakkar, but I don’t think toughness will be enough. Klose by Dec

Michael Morales vs Adam Fugitt

Morales is a massive favorite and for good reason. The kid is 13-0 and only 23 years old. He hits hard as hell and has shown some grappling chops too. Naturally strong and long kid. Very aggressive. Fugitt has fought the tougher comp. He has some pop in his shots and showed that against Renfro.  Morales is the side, but the line is too wide here. Staying away

Joselyn Edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim

Edwards is 11-4 and she’s 2-2 in the ufc. She is another one who is good everywhere. She’s a tall girl at 5’8 and uses her size well. She is primarily a striker. Finished a bunch of fights early in her career but I see her more as a decision fighter. I was not impressed by edwards in her last fight. Pascual is not great and she got hurt bad in that fight.

Kim is also very well rounded. She has an excellent jab, rips to the body and showed she has a chin on her in her last fight. Kim is on a 3 fight skid but it’s a little deceiving. She did not lose to Pricilla. That was one of the worst decisions I’ve seen ever. She trains with killers and is one of the better females on the roster

The wrong girl is favored here. Kim will be better everywhere and pieces up edwards for a Dec win

Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ihor Potieria

Nicolae came into the ufc undefeated finishing everyone. He has not been impressive since joining the ufc. He lost a decision to safarov (that is safarovs only ufc win in 4 fights), he beat Aleksa Camur by split decision and he kinda got beat up in that fight and he knocked out Ike Villanueva. He’s small for the division. He is fast and pretty strong. Will go for the occasional takedown. He fades in fights down the stretch. He beat Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight but it was by split and Kennedy lost a point for eye pokes

Potieria is 20-2 and on a 17 fight winning streak. His record is extremely padded with 4 of his last 6 opponents having a total of 6 wins. He’s only 25 years old and his biggest test to date was for the Wwfc title fight which saw him get out wrestled before his opponent gassed and he was able to put him away. He’s very long, creative striker who throws fast hands, elbows from all angles and nice knees. His weakness is wrestling. When he’s on top he has great ground and pound and is long enough to do major damage from his opponents gaurd. Looked good on DWCS. He’s 6’3 with some long limbs. He’s a Ukrainian fighter and he is fighting out of ATT. Looks like he’s been putting in the work too

Interesting matchup. Nicolae has the wrestling edge, but Ihor is the more explosive of the two and should win a stand up battle easy. I’m def not sold on Nicolae and I’ll take Ihor at slight dog money

Orion Cosce vs Mike Mathetha (blood diamond)

I’m not sold on either fighter here, but I really don’t think Blood Diamond should be in the UFC. He’s too slow and he’s too green. Cosce should have advantages everywhere. Cosce round one finish