UFC 278 Tape Study Notes

Full card analysis

UFC 278

Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards

Usman is the welterweight king. He is 20-1 and that one loss was his second fight in mma back in 2013. Since then he has been dominant. He has a wrestling background and holds an edge in that department over everyone he faces. Cormier tells stories of how Usman was hanging around the Olympic team back when he was a child. Not only does he have the wrestling, but his striking has come a long long way. He knocked Masvidal out cold (something that has never been done) in his last fight. That is really the first time we’ve seen the power of Usman, but if you watch the tape it was coming. He has really learned footwork and timing when it comes to striking. Has a great jab and can hang with everyone on the feet, especially with the threat of the takedown. His striking seems to improve every fight and he goes for less and less takedowns. This could be because Colby is an excellent wrestler too and he knew he could beat him on the feet, but it also may be because his knees are even worse off than everyone says they are. Scares me a bit. He is tough as nails though. A true dominant champ

Leon Edwards is 19-3 and is on a 9 fight winning streak. His last loss is to none other than Kamaru Usman. Both guys are completely different fighters now so it’s not even worth analyzing that fight. He’s only fought 4 times since 2019. In that time frame Usman won the title against Woodley and then successfully defended the belt 5 times. Edwards is a very technical striker. He doesn’t have much power. Point fighter. He claims to have worked on his defensive wrestling. It has shown to be true, but he has yet to face a 170 pounder who is an elite wrestler. RDA is a good wrestler, but the size difference was too much. He beat Nate Diaz down for 4 rounds before nearly getting knocked out in the 5th

Everyone claiming that Usmans body is breaking down; he may not be the spring chicken that he once was, but he hears all the criticism as well. I think he’s going to come in here and fuck up leon edwards. Leon had a relatively easy road to the title. Usman is the welterweight king and proves the haters wrong Saturday night.

Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold

Paulo is a scary scary man. He carries some serious muscle, but also has a great gas tank. He’s 13-2 with his only losses coming to the champ Adesanya and Marvin Vettori. 10 of his wins have not gone to the judges score cards. If you take away his last 4 fights the names on his resume are not very impressive. He beat a bloated Johnny Hendricks and Bamgbose. However his knockout win over Uriah hall was impressive and anytime you beat Yoel Romero it’s impressive. The thing is Yoel and Hall are both fighters that can be super impressive or not show up. Uriah Hall is not always there mentally and it shows and Yoel will sometimes show up and barley fight. Now you can’t completely take them away from Paulo it’s just interesting that he doesn’t have much else to his resume. He’s a power puncher, has good cardio, likes to get into slugfest. He is extremely strong, don’t know how he makes weight (and against Vettori he couldn’t make weight) and has shown good takedown defense. He looks to be in incredible shape for this fight. Slimmer than normal. Have to think the last weight debacle made him sharpen up

Rockhold is an offensive power house. He is big for the division. He has power in his hands and massive power in his kicks. On the ground he has the best top game in the division and some of the best submissions in the division. He does sometimes struggle to get it there though. He’s been a staple at aka for a long time with Cormier, khabib and Cain. He ended this camp working with Jason Parillo and he really credits chito vera for getting his fire back. I love that he’s putting in work with parillo. Rockhold offensively is a monster, but his Achilles heal is located in the middle of his face. He has no chin. He gets rocked and put away. It’s too bad because he is soooo talented otherwise. He also hasn’t fought in 3 years, he’s lost his last 2 and he’s 37 years old.

Costa can def turn the lights out, but Rockhold at +250 is too tempting for me. I know everyone is on costa here, but If he can get Costa down he will submit him. Going with a newly motivated rockhold. Play will be small and have high upside. Follow me on this one at your own risk

Jose Aldo vs Merab Dvalishvili

Jose Aldo is one of my all time favorite fighters and he is an all time great. He’s fought all the best fighters his entire career. His only losses are to Conor (fluke? Possibly) max Holloway, Volkanovski and Petre yan…..marlon doesn’t count because he won that fight lol. He credits his resurgence to training with the Brazilian navy. Says those kids lit a fire under him. Has crazy good leg kicks, RIPS to the body and can grapple with the best of em when he has to. He won the Vera fight using his grappling and that fight is aging very well. He will need that legendary takedown defense in this fight

Merab has never lost in the ufc (this current stint. He was in the ufc and cut back in 2017 losing to Saenz and Simon.) He has the same game plan for every single opponent and it’s just take them down over and over and over and over and over and over again. He is exhausting to watch and he’s one of the best in the world. He’s boys with Sterling and together they continue to make each other better. He showed he can come back from adversity in his last fight. He was rocked as bad as you can be and was able to work through it.

I actually really like this matchup for aldo. Aldo has shown he’s still got it and he’s never been dominated by wrestlers. On the feet this isn’t close. Aldo sprawls and brawls his way to a Dec victory! Especially with the judges sticking with the damage over position criteria

Marcin Tybura vs Alexander Romanov

Marcin Tybura is not a bad fighter. He has good wrestling and decent striking. He can throw a good headkick for a big boy and he’s defensively sound. Massive massive head and has shown he does have a good chin despite being knocked out a few times in his career. He is a step up from the guys Romanov has been fighting, but he’s an appropriate step. Romanov is a killer, especially since he’s gotten in shape. Even though tybura is massive, Romanov only needs to get him down once and I think he will. Tybura will really struggle to get back up. Romanov gets another dominant win here despite the step up and the size of tybura……….. with that said if the elevation is going to effect anyone, Romanov seems like the exact type it would effect. He has been training In Thailand and I don’t care if it’s rational or not, I will always associate that with steroid use haha. He’s a big favorite so going to need to get creative with props to find value

Tyson Pedro vs Harry Hunsucker

Hunsucker has some power and I’m seeing some love for him by tko. I don’t see it. Every single step up (and step up is generous. Even most of his step ups are worse than pedro) he gets kod. He doesn’t have a style that yields success. Pedro is so much better than him and I see him getting the finish round 1. There might not be any value in it though. Will have to see when prop lines are released

Leonardo Santos vs Jared Gordon

Santos nearly finished guida in his last fight. That was as close to a finish as you can get. He didn’t get it, he gassed and he lost the fight. Santos is a great wrestler offensively and defensively, he walks his opponents down, is defensively sound, throws good leg kicks and has great counters. He has bad cardio and that’s not good for fighting at altitude. His wins are not over great competition and he doesn’t have a win since 2020. He had an injury ridden career that cost him his prime. Who knows what he could have been, but at this stage he is a guy I’ve been looking to bet against

Gordon is a grinder uses wrestling well in his fights. Has good stand up, but a bad chin. We have won money betting on him in the past. He is fighting again at light weight, which is interesting to me. Gordon had weight issues at 145 and has said he would like to drop back down. I think he was happy with his win over Solecki and the performance he had against a big guy in Grant and that’s why we are seeing him at 55 again. His fight against Solecki was extremely close and we saw the heart and wrestling of Gordon pull through in the 3rd round even though he was out grappled in the first. He won’t stop. He has cardio to destroy a guy like Santos late.

Santos will be dangerous early, but Gordon is tough. If Gordon survives round one there’s a good chance santos is gassed. This may be a stay away fight for me, but I do love the fight doesn’t go the distance prop

Yanan Wu vs Lucie Pudilova

Wu is 25 years old and she really isn’t good. She finished a lot of fights prior to coming to the ufc, but she has since shown very little finishing ability besides a sub against a low level fighter. We called her last fight exactly.

Pudilova is returning to the UFC for a second chance. She fought some really tough competition in her first run and didn’t fare so well.

I do think Pudilova wins this fight, but big time stay away here. No need to bet this fight

Sean Woodson vs Luis Saldana

There are a few mismatches on this card and this might be the biggest one. Woodson is a long lanky dude. He has a 79 inch reach and that’s good for an 6 inch reach advantage in this fight. He’s a striker and uses his reach very well. He is a product of the contender series and beat a tough opponent in Terrance McKinney to get a contract. He has great takedowns defense to go with his great boxing. He will make you pay for shooting in with tight chokes. Should have a major advantage on the feet 

Saldana  is a dwcs product. He hit a beautiful front kick in that fight that led to the finish. After that he got a win over Jordan Griffin and then faltered against a tough Austin lingo. That was a crazy back and forth battle that Saldana would have won if he had the cardio to do so. Saldanas kicks are something of beauty. Loves spinning kicks to the body and everything he throws cracks. He has admitted to struggling to make weight and his cardio is suspect

Saldana will be dangerous early, but Woodson is so technically sound on the feet. Saldana gasses and the volume of Woodson leads to a finish

Miranda Maverick vs Shanna Young

Maverick is 25 years old and she now trains out in Denver at Pound4pound Muay Thai with Raquel Pennington and a bunch of good women’s mma fighters. It’s one of the best gyms for women’s mma. She just got a submission win over Mazo after a two fight losing streak, but she most definitely won her fight against  barber. That was a robbery. She said going into her last fight that she wanted to show that she is well rounded and does have good grappling in this fight and she came out with a submission win.

Shanna young tries to win on pure aggression and toughness. It worked in her last fight because Mazany quits. That won’t work against Maverick.

Easy fight to pick. Maverick should be better everywhere. Young isn’t ufc level. Maverick by Dec

AJ Fletcher vs Ange Loosa

AJ Fletcher is sitting at 9-1 with 8 wins coming by finish. 4 by tko 4 by sub. Fletcher is one of Dustin poiriers boys and he trains every day with Dustin, pablito, Alan Jouban and those guys. He’s strong as shit and very well rounded. Prior to the Semi loss, His last 5 wins came by finish in the first round. He showed up on DWCS. Dude won by flying knee in just over 2 min. When we had pablito on the show and he really raved about Fletcher saying he is going to be a monster. 

Loosa is another guy that the people at his gym rave about him. Loosa trains at Sanford mma and lost his dwcs fight. He was coming off a long layoff for that fight and made it to decision against a very tough opponent in Jack Della. He followed that up with a win over former ufc fighter John Howard. Loosa took a fight on short notice against another monster in Lazzez. Again he fought to a Dec. can’t wait to see him on a full camp. Well rounded. Looks to be bouncing around gyms a bit, but I think it’s a good thing. Getting different looks. Been training with Jared Gordon so they should be pushing each other

I like Loosa here. He’s fought better comp and I think he’s out of a better gym. Loosa shows he is ufc level and that he’s just had some really tough opponents so far

Amir Albazi vs Francisco Figueiredo

This fight is not lined close and that’s because it’s not a close fight. Albazi is a monster and Figueiredo is the “other brother”. Albazi is miles better everywhere. He’s hungry and trains with beasts all day. Albazi and that hairline win easy

Qileng Aori vs Jay Perrin

Aori  is a beast. His first fight in the ufc was against Molina and it was a war. Aori claims his cardio and overall game took a hit for this fight because his coaches and team did not travel with him. Aori expected big things for his fight against Durden and was predicting a knockout. It didn’t go his way, but I did think he won that fight. He landed 116 strikes and 3 takedowns against Molina and won fight of the night for his efforts. Super impressive even in the loss. The loss against Durden is aging very well as well. He went out in his last fight and starched Cameron Else. Very well rounded fighter and has a granite chin. Elevation should not be a problem, he’s been training in the mountains for this fight

Jay Perrin made his ufc debut against Mario Bautista. That was too tough a task, but he showed he is fucking game. He has an excellent chin and has some good wrestling. He swings wildly and is not scared of a war. More than anything I think he’s just a tough guy. He’s talking a lot pre fight and he’s very confident in himself

Qileng has all the advantages in this fight. I think he will piece up Perrin on the feet and has good enough wrestling to stay up himself and to attempt some takedowns of his own. Qileng gets the win

Daniel Da Silva vs Victor Altamirano

Da Silva is a guy that does everything violently. He hits very hard and he goes for submissions constantly. He’s only 25 years old. He fought Jeff Molina in his ufc debut and that was just too much too soon. Da Silva was able to get on molinas back with both hooks in and nearly grabbed an armbar as he got shucked off the top. He got subbed very quickly in his last fight against Figueiredo. Not the best look. He trains with Chucky Oliveira which you have to like

Altamirano is a dwcs series guy. He won on the show with a Dec over Carlos Candelario. This was a split decision win and a fight that was much closer than I expected. He really struggled with the takedowns from Candelario. Altamirano was the LFA flyweight champ before coming to the UFC. Altamirano is comfortable fighting from guard which always makes me a littler weary. He’s very well rounded, but kinda slow for the division. He lost a split in his last fight.

I like da silva here. Should be a lot faster and more explosive. Altamirano is just not impressive

Don’t forget to check out Erik’s UFC 278 Trivia

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Manny’s PFL Breakdown

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