UFC 280 Tape Study Notes

Full card breakdown

UFC 280

Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira

Islam is an absolute beast. We all know him as Khabibs boy and he’s trying to show everyone that now is his time. He does everything well. His striking defense is incredible and Javier Mendez claims his wrestling is better than khabibs. From what I can see, maybe his takedowns are slightly better, but his top control is not to khabibs level. Just because it’s not khabibs level does not mean it isn’t incredible. His top control is plenty good enough to hold Oliveira down. He has great submissions and throughout his career has been a finisher. There’s not much bad to say about the man. He’s a killer and hard to deal with. His one flaw is his chin and there’s nothing he can do about that.

Oliveira has proved me wrong time and time again. The narrative on the champ used to be that he gives up in fights. Well we have not seen the champ waiver in quite some time. He’s on a massive 12 fight win streak. He’s come back from being hurt badly against Michael chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje and he finished all of them. He has long arms and will have a 4 inch reach advantage in this fight. He’s strong despite his looks. He has turned into a HUGE threat on the feet. Everything he throws lands with massive power and he will need that here. His ground game is obviously excellent and he has relied on the threat of that in all of his big comeback wins. He drops to his back welcoming the ground exchanges. Will be interesting to see how that works out here

If Charles wins it will be an early KO. I think a far more likely outcome is Islam dominates Charles with wrestling and eventually locks up a submission. Both guys are finishers so the under is looking like a good bet. I watched islam vs Arman like 3 times this past week and each time is more impressive. Arman is no fucking joke and islam was able to really dominate every wrestling and ground exchange (despite the commentary team saying it was a close fight). Islam by sub is the play

Aljamain Sterling vs T.J. Dillashaw

Despite my personal opinion, Aljamain is champ. He is very well rounded, extremely athletic, has great cardio and has the wrestling and ground control to give just about anyone trouble. He will have a 4 inch reach advantage in this fight. He’s been talking a lot about Dillashaws PED use. Not sure if he’s setting up another excuse or just trying to piss Dillashaw off.

Everything we said about Sterling could be said about Dillashaw. He is extremely well rounded, a great athlete and has the wrestling to give people fits. The difference is Dillashaw will be faster and he hits a lot harder. I also think Dillashaw has some dog in him, where sterling may have some quit.

The wrong fighter is favored here. Dillashaw is a horrible matchup for Sterling and I think he pieces him up on the feet for a Dec win.

Petr Yan vs Sean O’Malley

This is such an interesting fight and one that I’m honestly shocked is taking place. Petr Yan in my opinion should still be champ, while Sean O’Malley is coming off wins over Railian Paiva and Kris Moutinho. He arguably was losing his last fight with Pedro Munoz as well.

The level of comp is not comparable and I don’t think their skill level is either. O’Malley has great striking, great use of range and he’s a sharp shooter with those punches. He’s extremely accurate, but saying that Yan can’t hang on the feet with him is just insane. If Yan wants to wrestle it’s over. Yan is extremely durable, O’Malley has been extremely fragile. Yan has the advantage in this fight everywhere and one thing he said gives me the confidence to lay the juice on him. On Ariel Helwanis podcast he was asked if this fight would mainly be contested on the feet. His answer was “no”. Yan can go out there take O’Malley down and finish this fight. I will parlay Yan and I may look the fight doesn’t go the distance. I expect that to be against the grain, but both guys have finishing ability.

Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot

This is my stay away fight of the night. It’s also a fight I can’t wait to watch. Beneil is the forgotten dark horse of the division and Gamrot is an absolute beast. They have fought a lot of the same guys and had similar results. Wins. Can’t wait to see the scrambles in this fight. Beneil is deceptively strong. I lean Beneil, but this is going to be a wild fight. Just watching this one

Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot

Chookagian is a fighter who is a little frustrating to watch, but she only ever loses to the very top of the division. She is big for the weight class. She is constantly moving and is very active. She is vocal in the octagon, to the point of annoyance. She is a point fighter who loves to throw the jab from the outside and just continue to circle circle circle. She has good take down defense and can get takedowns of her own when needed

Manon is a MONSTER. She’s 9-1 and on a 9 fight winning streak. She has finished 5 of her last 7 fights. She is a standup fighter with possibly the best technique in women’s mma. She is used to having a size advantage, which she won’t have here, but she will still have the strength advantage. So far her cardio has more than held up as well. She has great power takedowns and is promising an exciting fight here.

Manon is better than Chookagian everywhere. Really can’t see her losing this fight. Love her as a parlay piece

Belal Muhammad vs Sean Brady

Belal is a guy I have counted out too many times. He’s very well rounded and has developed a serious mma wrestling game. He spent this camp with khabib and according to Javier Mendez khabib took a special liking to working with Belal. In his last fight he beat the shit out of Vicente Luque on the ground and in the stand up. Had a bet on Luque and that fight really shocked me.

Sean Brady is undefeated, but really hasn’t fought anyone. He is a grappler and is strong as hell. MMA wheezy pointed out that he just had surgery on his sinuses and should even have improved cardio for this fight. Brady’s cardio wasn’t bad to begin with. He’s been talking a good game in the lead up for this fight and as an undefeated prospect he has no reason not to.

This fight is going to come down to if Brady can dominate the wrestling exchanges. I’m not too sure he does, but I also don’t want to bet against him. If I bet anything in this fight it’s that it will go to Dec

Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Borralho

Muradov is a striking standout who is 3-1 in the ufc with wins over di Chirico Trevor smith and Andrew Sanchez. His one loss was his last fight and it was by submission to Gerald Meerschaert. Muradov was previously signed by Floyd’s money team so he obviously had some hype. He’s now known less for that and more for some kind of gay porn he was doing (not sure it was that extreme, but he was doing some kind of scandalous activity back in the day). He has good takedown defense. He fights smart and looks for the ko. In the Meerschaert fight he showed he is great when he is on the offensive, but he can get broken.

Caio is my boy. We were all over him in his first DWCS fight against Aaron Jeffery’s and then we called his KO in his next fight. He is extremely fast, explosive and has excellent takedowns. He has natural timing and blasts through those double legs. He has massive power and trains with the likes of shogun and Damien Maia. In his last fight against Petrosyan he really showed how good his ground game is. Kid as an ace on the ground. He’s only listed at 5’10, but looked to be just slightly shorter than 6’3 Petrosyan. So don’t put much in to the listed size difference

Muradov may have better takedown defense than Petrosyan, but I would argue his striking is slightly worse. He also doesn’t have the heart and tenacity that Petrosyan has. The repeated takedowns and grappling exchanges will break down Muradov and Caio will have his way. Caio by Dec most likely, but wouldn’t be shocked if he got the finish either

Volkan Oezdemir vs Nikita Krylov

Volkan made us some easy money in his last fight against Paul Craig. He looked excellent in that fight, but that should have been no surprise against the very one dimensional Craig. He has excellent striking, good power and has been training with Khamzat and Gustafsson. He’s calling this a revenge fight and wants to win for his teammate. He’s only ever lost to the very top of the division. He showed great patience in his last fight and as always he was extremely accurate with his strikes. He’s a naturally strong guy, with some sneaky good takedowns as well

Krylov is a guy that I’ve been high on for a long time. He has all the skills to be great in the 205 weight division and he’s actually a dark horse contender. Match him up with Jiri and I think I’m taking Nikita. Nikita has a bunch of experience for still only being 30 years old and all his recent losses are to top competition. He lost to Jan Blachowicz, Glover (by split), Magomed Ankalaev (by Dec) and then most recently he was beating the shit out of Paul Craig, lost concentration for a split second and that’s all it takes against Craig and he got subbed. I’m not taking anything negative away from the Craig fight. Krylov was the right side of that fight and he is who we thought he was. He crushed the shell of Gustafsson in his last fight. Looked very very impressive. A top level talent. His fight with Glover really impressed me. On the feet early he showed great footwork and was throwing nice kicks from range. He fights with a nice jab and has good power in his shots. Glover got him to the ground early and he was able to reverse position and nearly subbed Glover. Krylov looked visibly tired in the second round, but was able to battle through it. He was getting hit with big shots and was eating them and was still able to fire back. He also was able to take down Glover multiple times even as tired as he was. He showed tremendous heart and submission defense in that fight. His fight against Ankalaev was also impressive especially that we know now he went in to that fight with a shoulder injury. He won the first round of that fight. Was able to land nice power shots and his takedowns looked on point early (even though he didn’t land many, he was facing Ankalaev, his entries and positions would have taken most down)

Krylov says he’s in the best shape of his career and you can tell he thinks it’s his time. This is a good test for him, but I think he will have a grappling advantage and will be able to hang on the feet. I like Krylov ITD

Zubaira Tukhugov vs Lucas Almeida

Tukhugov has fought some tough comp since coming to the ufc. He lost a split to moicono, had a draw against Lerone Murphy and suffered a split decision loss to Dawadu. He beat Ricardo Ramos in his last fight. He trains with khabib and Javier mendes and he is actually one of the guys who jumped the cage and punched Conor in the brawl. He is content with moving backwards and explodes in with huge power shots. He can obviously wrestle and utilizes it often in his fights. He did struggle with getting Dawadu down. Wings punches and had Murphy and Moicono hurt badly. Hits very very hard.

Almeida is long for the division, has a 3 inch reach advantage here, and throws every single punch with bad intentions. He is sloppy but hits hard. Throws looping punches. Very very aggressive. Throws brutal leg kicks. He swings wildly at times leaving himself open to easy takedowns. Lost in a war on DWCS. After that he took one fight in jungle fight, won by first round sub and got signed by the ufc. He demolished Mike Trizano in his last fight. This is a huge step up in comp for him

I picked Almeida against Trizano, but this is a totally different scenario here. Zubaira is a bad matchup for Almeida. Zubaira will be able to land takedowns and counters off Almeidas sloppy aggressive striking. Zubaira by tko

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Abubakar is khabibs cousin, but he did not get nearly the athletic skill of his relative. Abubakar is well rounded, but struggled to get Jared Gooden to the mat. He has a good jab and he actually rocked Gooden with it multiple times.  Gadzhi is coming off the loss to Caio. I’m not taking too much away from that because Caio is a beast. Gadzhi has excellent wrestling and good power. He is hitable and that scares me a but, but abubakar is not known for his power. I think Gadzhi is the better wrestler and I don’t mind a small bet on him here

Armen Petrosyan vs AJ Dobson

This is an absolute banger of a fight. Both guys are strikers and constantly look for the finish. Dobson hits so hard and will have a 5 inch reach advantage, but I’ve been impressed with Petrosyan. He’s fought the far better competition and I think he’s the more polished of the two on the feet. Besides a flash ko I see Dobson getting picked apart and ultimately finished (to the body… body kick to be exact) by Petrosyan

Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon

This is a shit kicking. Taking Mokaev ITD with everything I have

Karol Rosa vs Lina Lansberg

Not worth betting to me. So many other spots on this card I like to risk anything on this one. I will say I think Rosa is the better fighter, but Lansberg is tough. Stay away for me