UFC 281 Tape Study Notes

Full Card Breakdown

UFC 281

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

This is a very interesting matchup. Izzy has been middle weight king now for a while. This comes despite multiple holes in his game exploited by Jan up a weight class. Pereira doesn’t have the tools to exploit those holes. What Pereira does have is extreme confidence in knowing that he has knocked the champ out before. Pereira has extreme power. He’s absolutely massive and he’s been training at a surging gym with Glover Teixeira and now Dominick Reyes.

This is a very close fight. They are both very technical strikers and this is the classic let down fight. Definitely a chance this one is boring (like any Izzy fight). I favor the challenger. I don’t think Izzy has the wrestling to really threaten Pereira and if you stay standing long enough with Pereira you are bound to get hurt. Either way, the winner stays champ only until a wrestler makes his way up the rankings

Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang

Carla won(?) Possibly the worst title fight in the history of the UFC. Neither fighter did anything. Carla was the one coming forward so they gave it to her. Oddly enough I thought it was pretty clear from what we did see that she was the worse of the two fighters in the cage that night. If Rose let’s things go I think she wins easy. With that said what Carla does bring to the table is wrestling. She can be a smothering wrestler at times, but she is not very explosive and she tends to give up on takedowns easily. She feels disrespected by the betting line and I can see why.

Zhang has it all. She’s tough as hell, has power for the division, can throw volume, she is probably the strongest girl in the division and her tdd and get up game are great, especially since she’s been training with cejudo. Zhang is a massive favorite and I agree with the line. I think Zhang will get a finish. 5 rounds is a long time to be in the cage with her

Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler

What an absolute banger of a fight. Highly highly doubt this one goes to decision. It’s like chandler said at the press conference, paraphrasing here, “we both know each other and we both go for finish the entire time”. It’s true for us too. We both know these guys very well. Dustin should be the more technical guy and Chandler brings that explosion and power. Logic tells me that Dustin pieces him up. If the Dustin that beat Max shows up, then this is not a close fight. BUT I’m not sure that Dustin is still around. Chandler is very dangerous and can finish you at any time. Both guys have taken a ton of damage throughout their career and that may lead me to taking an under prop or first round finish prop in this one

Frankie Edgar vs Chris Gutierrez

What is there to say about Frankie Edgar. He’s one of the best fighters of all time. He’s fought at multiple weight classes and has had success in them all. He’s 41 years old and his resume speaks for itself. He’s coming off two knockout losses. He got starched by Sandhagen right away and he got front kicked to the face by Chito in the third. He wasn’t completely out against chito and he took a full year off to recover. He looked great in that Chito fight before getting tkod. Looked fast on the feet and if Chito didn’t have such a good chin I think some of those punches would have taken out lesser opponents. He always has that wrestling in his back pocket and I expect him to really sell out for some takedowns in his retirement fight. Frankie is going to leave it all in the cage

Gutierrez is a good prospect. He’s got great footwork, good speed and has showed he can hang in the grappling department. He throws brutal leg kicks and has multiple tko wins from leg kicks. He’s coming off the biggest win in his career by far knocking out Danaa. The thing is he was losing that fight up until that spinning back fist and I have to say it seemed a bit lucky. Before that he was coming off a split against Felipe Colares, a guy that got finished by chase hooper.

Youth is huge in mma and that is all on Gutierrez side, but Frankie is a fucking dog and he is not going out without a fight. I see Frankie’s boxing mixed with wrestling causing problems for Gutierrez. Frankie knows about the leg kicks and I hope the gameplan is to shoot for a takedown when they are thrown. Frankie wins a Dec

Dan Hooker vs Claudio Puelles

I wanted so badly to go against Twitter and pick Puelles, but after watching tape I can’t do it. This is a great matchup for Hooker. Puelles doesn’t have the wrestling chops to get it to the ground and Hooker should be much better on the feet. Hooker will also be the much stronger of the two. Hooker gets right in this spot and gets a finish

Brad Riddell vs Renato Moicano

Riddell is training partners with Adesanya and Volkanovski so you have to love that he’s been in the gym working with two of the best in the game and feeding off that championship energy. He’s coming off two losses. His last one came to the beast that is Jalin Turner and before that a loss to Rafael Fiziev. That fight was super close. Riddell came in in excellent shape and was landing hard strikes against the beast that is Fiziev. In the third round he got caught with a spinning wheel kick that hit him flush, but he didn’t go out cold. Guys got a chin. Ref saved him from any serious damage too. Prior to that fight he was on a 7 fight win streak with some very impressive wins. One of Riddells main training partners is Dan Hooker. Dan Hooker is also on the card and I love a gym that has a bunch of killers all peaking at the same time.

Renato is dangerous everywhere. He has some power on the feet and he has excellent grappling. He was exposed against RDA, but he took that on short notice and RDA is a fucking monster. He’s athletic, but a little slow for the division.

Riddell is a slight dog and I love him in this spot. Riddell is known for his striking, but he’s a good wrestler too. He will be able to win the striking and grappling exchanges in this fight. I think he finishes Moicano here

Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann

Reyes had so much hype after the Jon Jones controversial loss, but hasn’t lived up to it. He has been fighting the very best of the division and hasn’t looked terrible. He’s an extremely good athlete and is good everywhere. He’s on a 3 fight losing streak to Jon jones, Jan and Jiri. He’s taken time off and has been training with Glover and Alex Pereira in Connecticut. He claims he’s Dom 2.0 now and that the biggest thing he worked on is his defense.

Spann was a HOT prospect when he came in. Thunderous power and athleticism. Spann has looked really good at times and terrible at times in his UFC career. He choked out Ion easily, he got beat handily by Anthony Smith, knocked out a chiny Cirkunov before the fight even got going, got knocked out by Johnny Walker and won a split decision over Sam Alvey in a fight I thought he lost. Hard to know what you are going to get from the guy, but he tends to be kill or be killed

I love Reyes in this spot. I am not sold on Spann at all and I love the change of gyms for Reyes. Reyes by devastating finish probably round 1

Erin Blanchfield vs Molly McCann

I wanted so badly to take Molly McCann here and I don’t even really like her. I think she comes off very cringeworthy and frankly I find her bit annoying. The barstool effect is real and portnoy does always seem to have things bounce his way. That bounce ends for McCann here. Blanchfield may be young and still improving, but her grappling advantage is soooooo wide here that I don’t see how she loses. Molly isn’t some one punch knockout fighter that she has appeared to be. Blanchfield by sub

Andre Petroski vs Wellington Turman

Petroski is a guy that I have been so much higher on than most. We won a ton of money on him against Maximov and that’s because of the skill that Petroski has demonstrated throughout his time on TUF and in the UFC. The guy is talented. His grappling is off the charts, he’s got power in his hands and he’s stronger than you. He has shown a bit of quit in him and cardio concerns, but there is no denying that he has the tools to be very very good.

Turman on the other hand I am not high on. Faded him in his last fight and man that was frustrating to watch. He has some improved striking and he is a good grappler, but the dude has no chin. He trains with Alex Pereira and Reyes and I see him as a great training partner, but they are the talent and he is just middle of the road

Petroski is very very confident he can dominate the grappling and I am too. Petroski goes in, takes Turman down, ground and pounds him before finding the arm triangle round 1

Matt Frevola vs Ottman Azaitar

Frevola is a meat and potatoes grinder type fighter. He has had 8 ufc fights going 5-3 in those fights. He is always in great shape, the only thing that holds him back is his chin. He was knocked out brutally by McKinney and even Polo Reyes knocked him out. Frevola has fought very tough competition in his UFC run and he looked better than ever in his last fight. I love how he’s been talking in the lead up to this fight. Kinda playing the wild man card. This is also a home town fight for Frevola fighting out of Long Island

Azaitar is a power puncher. He’s undefeated and finishes most of his fights in the first round. He puts in work with khabib and the boys at times. He is now known for the famous “bag” incident and said he was tested by USADA 26 times this year because of it. Azaitar wants to make it a war and he relies on his power to win fights. He’s fought a very very low level of comp

Azaitar can certainly knockout Frevola, but I like the steam rolla to make this a drag out exhausting fight. Frevola mixes it up better and finds a finish in rounds 2 or 3

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gomez Juarez

I won’t be betting this fight due to it being pretty high variance. I lean Juarez though. She has the power advantage and Karolina doesn’t have the submissions to threaten her

Mike Trizano vs Seung Woo Choi

This is a fight I love. I think we are getting a major discount on Choi here. He should have got that tko against Bruce Leeroy, but gassed himself in the process. He then fought a very underrated guy in Culibao and went to split Dec. Choi is a beast. Throws heaters and has a chin himself. He’s facing Trizano who has looked lost recently. Trizano is used to being the longer fighter, but is at a 3.5 inch reach advantage here. He has no notable wins in the UFC. Choi KOs Trizano in this spot

Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson

Arce is an amazing fighter. He’s been around a long time and he had success in multiple weight classes. What this fight comes down to is speed. Arce struggles with opponents who are faster than him. We saw it in the Yadong fight and we will see it here. Jackson is extremely fast and athletic. This is a bad matchup for Arce and sometimes that’s really all there is to breakdown. They both have good skills, but this one purely comes down to speed. I fully expected to see a finish from Jackson

Carlos Ulberg vs Nicolae Negumereanu

Standing this fight is Ulberg all day. What scares me is that if he doesn’t finish Nicolae early then I favor Nicolae to take the fight late. Ulberg seems to be finally showing the potential we all thought he has though and I expect him to stuff takedowns and dominate the striking. He probably gets the finish too