UFC 283

Main Card Breakdown

UFC 283

Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill

“Glover finally did it! Glover is the light heavyweight champ of the world and it’s been quite a journey for him. I remember when he was Chuck Liddell’s training partner and Chuck was singing his praises. He had some visa issues that delayed his UFC career and it’s really too bad. He has now won 6 in a row and it’s been in impressive fashion. He came out against Jan and was not going to be denied. His wrestling was on point, but more than anything his will to win that fight and his pure strength was on display. If he comes with that same attitude of, I’m getting this take down no matter what like he did against Jan, then Jiri is in big trouble. His chin still holds up and he can still get takedowns when rocked. He has power in his hands and has brutal ground and pound. That fight with Anthony Smith was one of the biggest beat downs of all time. Anthony picking up his own teeth. Brutal stuff. On top of that he has some of the best submissions in the game. Couple that with the young studs he has in his training camp and you have a very dangerous 42 year old champ.”

That was my breakdown for Glover vs Jiri. Everything I said in that breakdown came to fruition in that fight… we nailed exactly how that fight would go except for how it ended. I’m not one to call a fix, but if I were that looked like a fix. It had the angle of getting the younger more marketable fighter the title and it had the script of letting the older fighter show he’s still got it and to go out on his shield…. I digress. Glover proved at 43 that he’s still got it. Following his Instagram he looks to be in amazing shape and I think he knows this is a winnable fight for him.

Jamahal Hill is fighting for the title. That statement even seems to surprise him. I do love his quote about how he really just wants to prove to himself that he belongs. It’s an awesome Underdog story. Jamahal Hill has been on a tear with only one loss coming to the hands of Paul Craig. He showed terrible fight iq in that fight, wanting to test himself on the ground with Craig. He failed, but he did show toughness and honestly I just like that attitude of “I’m better” win or lose. I like it. Hill however has not fought the highest level of competition. His best win was his last against Thiago santos. That was not an easy fight for him. The first 3 rounds were very close and he got taken down by santos multiple times. Hill does have amazing hands and eventually they found the mark and he put santos away. Hill has never faced a great wrestler and that scares me. He did show good urgency of getting back to his feet against santos though. Will that urgency leave openings for glovers subs? Maybe. Hill has brought in Anthony smith as a training partner to prepare for Glover. Smith may be able to give hill some insight, but he certainly had no answers for Glover.

This fight is actually very easy to breakdown. It’s very similar to the Jiri breakdown, where Glover is the better fighter everywhere. I may even favor Glover on the feet (technically) The only problem is Glover is old and it only takes one exchange for hill to put you away. I’ll take the superior skills of Glover to get a relatively early finish. Whether that’s ground and pound or striking. Glover had extra motivation with the fight in Brazil as well

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

This will now be the 4th time they will have fought each other. For Deiveson it’s the same opponent 4 times in a row. So far they are 1-1-1 In 3 fights. 4th times for all the marbles.  Before ever facing Moreno Fig looked unbeatable. He’s extremely well rounded and has more power than anyone in the division. Losing to Moreno truly shocked him. I think even after the draw he still took Moreno lightly. He was cocky. He came in last fight motivated and it showed. He brought in cejudo and the extra wrestling paid off. He looked like he was clearly the better of the two. Not to say that moreno didn’t have his moments. Since this victory figgy has had a hand injury and has been vocally upset about the interim title fight. He’s fired his management team and is now with Urijah faber. It also appears that he is no longer at fight ready.  Despite rumors that he may abandon the division, figgy is here to stay and he looks lean and mean a week out.

Brandon Moreno is always going to be a dog. He has one of the best stories the ufc has to offer. He was let go from the promotion after losing back to back fights to Pettis and Pantoja. He battled his way back into the ufc and fought to a draw with askar Askarov. He then went on to beat 3 of the baddest dudes in the division and earned a title shot. That led to the trilogy with figgy. He took his last loss and kept working. He fought Kai Kara France for the interim title and despite adversity was able to battle back and get the finish win. Hearing him talk this week, he really really wants revenge here. He said this is his Rocky moment. He also said that he is only a few pounds over weight and will not need to cut much. Opposite tactic to figgy and I think that was one of the major advantages that figgy had in their last fight was size power and strength.

After watching this go down 3 times we know it will be a close fight and the lines show that. If figgy is motivated and has a good weight cut I favor him for the same reasons he won last time out. Like Glover he has some extra motivation being in Brazil. I’m going to be betting on figgy and possibly fight doesn’t go the distance

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny

What a fucking fight. Everyone who has been following me for a while knows that I love Neil Magny. I bet on him almost every time out and I’ve won a lot of money betting on him. The thing with Magny is, I know when to bet against him too. Magny struggles with superior grapplers and to natural athleticism. If Magny can out grapple you he uses it to over come a lot of athletic insufficiencies that he has. If you have a questionable gas tank, Magny will make you pay. He’s very long for the division and holds a 9 inch reach advantage in this fight. Magny is as tough as they come, but lacks power and athleticism to ever be next level.

Burns is Magny’s kryptonite. He’s athletic, has massive power, his an excellent grappler and has shown he has a good gas tank. Burns impressed everyone in that Kamzat fight and he’s hungry to get that rematch. Fighting in his home country of Brazil I see Burns getting his first finish victory in 2 years. Burns round 1

Lauren Murphy vs Jessica Andrade

Lauren Murphy looked good in her last fight against Miesha Tate, but Miesha Tate also looked horrible. Lauren constantly moves forward and throws sloppy sloppy strikes. Oddly enough though her one two actually lands at a decent clip. Her head is straight up and she gets hit back. She’s very strong for the division and that’s where she makes it her fight. She likes to clinch you up and work in the clinch. She will drag you down if she can, but it’s strength takedowns, not technique. She has been working with absolute Killers including Rocky Pennington and Miranda Maverick. She lasted 4 rounds against the champ and that’s more than anyone thought. Can’t knock her toughness.

Jessica Andrade is a BEAST. She’s on a two fight winning streak with two first round finishes over the likes of Amanda Lemos and Cynthia Calvillo. That Lemos win is just getting better and better with age too. She’s impossibly strong for the division and has explosion only seen in mens divisions. The one question is her gas tank, but she may not need it

Lauren Murphy is tough, but Andrade is next level good. It’s a bad matchup for Murphy despite the size advantage. Murphy gets finished early

Paul Craig vs Johnny Walker

I’m not going to waste too much time breaking this down. This is the ultimate fade spot for me. I consistently bet against both of these dudes. Paul Craig is the definition of a one trick pony. That one trick is really fucking good. Good enough to beat jamahal hill who’s fighting for the title on the same night of this fight. Can he catch Johnny Walker’s goofy ass in a submission? Absolutely

Johnny Walker is a big athletic guy who hits very hard. His fight iq isn’t always the best. He has the ability to keep this fight standing and knockout Paul Craig. That’s what I think the most likely outcome is, but you can’t trust Walker to follow a game plan.

Bottom line stay away from this fight