UFC 283 Prelims Breakdown

Prelims and early prelims

Shogun Rua vs Ihor Potieria

Shogun is one of my favorite fighters of all time. In his prime he dusts Ihor. At 41 it’s a much closer fight. I wanted so badly to pick shogun here, but after watching tape I can’t do it. Out of principal I won’t be betting on Ihor, but I see him giving shogun a lot of problems. Ihor is tall and hits hard. His takedown defense didn’t hold up in his last fight, but early on it did. It was the repeated attempts that ended up getting him to the ground. I am scared that shogun will shoot in, be unsuccessful and then be willing to stand and bang. I also think shogun will he a little more willing to go out on his shield being that it’s his last fight. He’s going to want to put on a show for the Brazilian crowd no matter what.

Ihor hits hard and will be the much faster of the two. I’m not counting out the old vet completely. Ihor is hitable and shogun can still bang, but it is far more likely that we see shogun get knocked out here. He will still have his nice farewell and the crowd will cheer him on no matter what, but don’t get on a fairytale ending

Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira

Gregory Rodriguez is a grappler. He has super good bjj and competes in tournaments on his free time. He’s very heavy on top and is big for the division. He has heavy hands and prefers to stand and bang rather than use his grappling. This has paid off for him in his UFC career. His fights are exciting and for the most part his chin has held up and he has been able to battle back after getting rocked (ask the iron turtle).

Everything I’ve seen from Brunno screams real deal. He has the stopping power to put you away and his blast double against Well Oliveira was BEAUTIFUL. He’s only 9-0 and this will be his first UFC fight, but he’s finished everyone he’s faced with 7 of them coming in round 1. He’s not big for the division, but he is strong as hell. Knows how to use his frame well

Brunno took this fight on short notice and coming in I was fully expecting to be taking Robo cop. After watching tape I am fairly confident in Brunno. Robo cop gets hit a lot and Brunno is a fucking bruiser. I don’t think Robo cop will be able to out strength him either. Bad matchup for Robo cop here. Brunno gets the upset finish early

Thiago Moises vs Melquizael Costa

This is one of the biggest mismatches on the card and I mean no disrespect to Costa, because he actually looks decent. Costa is fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil and everyone knows that’s a famed gym with a certain style. Costa brings the fight to you. He’s Uber aggressive and is a very well rounded fighter. I watched a good amount of tape on him and he always brings it. If you haven’t seen it, this dude almost got murdered by an idiotic ref back in 2018. He gets caught in an anaconda choke and is out for a full minute before the fight is stopped. It’s legit like watching a snuff film.

Thiago Moises has fought as tough of competition as you can in the UFC and he has proven he belongs. He’s still only 27 years old and he is coming off a very impressive win. He trains at ATT and his grappling is sharp. He can do everything. Has decent striking, good takedowns and a good ground game. He has excellent defense and tends to turn fights into his style and pace. I think getting wrecked by Joel Alverez was a fluke because besides that he’s only lost to the top of the division

Love Moises and his grappling here. Not sure he gets the finish, but I’m very confident he wins this fight

Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez

Yet another fight that I was thinking one fighter pretape and I came out confident on the other side.

Bonfim is a little wild on the feet, but he hits hard and he is a boxing champion. He’s very fast and constantly moves forward. On the ground he’s a beast. Always a submission threat. One take away from Bonfim that I don’t like at all is he moves his head straight back to avoid punches. Tough as nails though and it hasn’t cost him yet

Mounir Lazzez is an offensive power house. He rips to the body heavy and often. His leg and body kicks are brutal and he sets up the head kick with it nicely. Warlley Alves destroyed him. He landed first and kept the pressure on and Lazzez crumbled. Lazzez is a bit slow. He doesn’t move his head at all and at times it looks like his feet are in concrete blocks. He just doesn’t move. He will throw a strike, watch his own handy work and then be caught over extended and watch you hit him without moving at all.

Bonfim is just tougher than Lazzez. I think his aggression and speed will beat the stagnant Lazzez. Bonfim finishes an overrated busted prospect in Lazzez

Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Jailton Almeida

This is the third attempt at this fight and just about everyone can agree it’s a showcase fight for Jailton. I declared that Jailton would be fighting for a title one day when he competed on DWCS. I thought it would be at 205, but I believe he can be just effective at heavyweight. He says he’s going to put on a show and I believe him. Jailton round 1 finish. Worth monitoring what his weight is. His last two weigh ins were 216 and 224. If he’s going to stay at heavyweight I would like to see him around 230-240 range. But If he weighs in at 200 pounds I’d still pick him here

Luan Lacerda vs Cody Stamann

Luan may be new to the UFC, but he isn’t some green up and comer. This guy has been around for a long time. He’s a long time training partner of Jose Aldo, he submitted Raulian Paiva back in 2015 and he’s on a 10 fight winning streak, 9 of those wins by submission. He’s a submission specialist for sure, but he does not look out of place on the feet. He has nice kicks. He likes to go to the body often. Throws a nice 1 two straight down the pipe. For a bjj guy he has excellent takedowns. Very tricky wrestler and once he has you on the ground you are in trouble. He has multiple ways to submit you and reverse position. Of the 9 submissions he’s won by Rear naked 3 times, guillotine twice, by armbar, anaconda choke, triangle choke, and heel hook. The guy is fucking legit. I like his size for the division too

Stamann has been nothing but consistent through out his career. He is a meat and potatoes fighter with low output, but he’s very hard to beat. He’s strong for the division and has been able to takedown just about everyone who he’s tried to get down. He’s only ever lost to the top of the division. Watching some interviews leading up to this fight it’s clear Cody respects the ground game of Luan. He wants to keep this standing and says he’s been working with bjj guys because he expects Luan to pull guard after getting beat up on the feet. One interesting thing I noticed was Cody admitted to nursing some injuries coming into this fight. He stated that it’s normal, but idk. Something about the way he said it makes me think he’s hurt. He talked about just wanting to make money and move into the woods somewhere. Not liking that coming in

Cody is a big favorite and even though I also see him as a favorite in this fight, I don’t think the line should be this wide. That coupled with injury concerns has me debating taking a shot on Luan ITD

Ismael Bonfim vs Terrance McKinney

Bonfim is a striker. He likes to take the center of the octagon and stay in his opponents face. He’s accurate with his strikes and mixes things up well. Has a nice jab and really attacked the body in his DWCS win. He’s another one that just  because this is his UFC debut, he really is a polished fighter. His last loss was to renato Moicano back in 2014 and he’s improved so much since then. Crisp boxing and throws a nasty leg kick. Some cause for concerns that I noticed in his DWCS fight is that he was backed up to the cage a few times by Abbasov and he froze and covered up. The smaller Abbasov would throw a wild over hand right and Bonfim would circle out. Against McKinney this will be a problem. Another cause for concern is he was taken down by Abbasov. He was able to get right back to his feet. I’m not even sure they counted it as a takedown, but the takeaway for me is that the opening is there. McKinney is not Abbasov. McKinney is huge and his wrestling is legit as hell.

McKinney is a special athlete. He’s massive for the division. He has true one punch ko power. He has some of the best wrestling in the division and he has the killer instinct you want. The two questions with McKinney are his chin and his cardio. His cardio looked terrible against Dober. Yes he was pouring it on, but he was tired after that first exchange, but let’s not forget he did take that fight on short notice. I think this had more to do that and an adrenaline dump, more than his conditioning. I expect to see massive improvements in this area. He trains with saidyokub and I imagine those are some wars in the gym.

After watching tape I am even more confident that Twrecks wrecks this dude. McKinney will be the aggressor early land a bomb and take down Bonfim where he will find a tko or sub.

Warlley Alves vs Nicolas Dalby

Warlley is a hard fighter to get a grasp on. Sometimes he shows up looking like a killer and sometimes he gets destroyed. He’s fought a very high level of competition in the UFC including a win over Colby Covington and Dec loss to Usman. He has a nasty guillotine and he’s got power in his hands. He got destroyed by Wells in his last fight, but Wells is a great prospect and one thing I liked to see was that even after being rocked Warlley was able to battle back and land a takedown in that fight. Before that Warllley absolutely crushed Mounir Lazzez

Dalby is a kick boxer and was former cage warriors champ. He’s coming off a win over Claudio Silva, which saw him get out grappled early and he was able to out last a gassed Silva. Before that he did not look good against Tim means. He got battered for two rounds and was out grappled. He turned it on in the third despite looking extremely gassed the entire fight. One of Dalbys best friends is Damir Hadzovic who is a decent training partner. By following Dalby on social I found that he competed on some weird Dutch reality tv show where he pretended to be in the military and go through a bootcamp like scenario. At 38 maybe he has his eye on the next step

I don’t like this fight at all. I lean warlley, but he’s a fighter that can’t be trusted. Stay way for me.

Josiane Nunes vs Zarah Fairn Dos Santos

Talk about a set up fight. Zarah Fairn may be the worst fighter on the roster and Nunes has legit power for the division. Nunes DESTROYS the bigger, but much worse Fairn. Nunes ITD is very likely

Saimon Oliveira vs Daniel Marcos

This is a fight between two DWCS alumni. Oliveira is coming off a Dec loss to Tony Gravely and he showed me a little bit in that fight. He was able to land a flying knee and nearly had the submission early on. He also showed immense toughness dealing with grueling wrestling that Gravely brings. He’s a guy that has a knack for finding the neck and he has a hell of a squeeze. He is a wizard on the ground and doesn’t mind fighting off his back. He’s not the most comfortable on the feet, but he’s improving big time.

Marcos is 13-0 and is coming off a Dec win on DWCS. It was a very close fight and I’m kinda surprised he got a contract. Prior to that fight Marcos hadn’t fought since 2019. He says the time off helped him recover from nagging injuries. He’s a decent striker. Throws an overhand with good power and he likes to batter your legs. Has showed okay takedown defense.

Seeing a lot of love for Marcos and I don’t really see it. To me this line should be wider. Doubt Saimon gets a finish, but I do think he wins this fight and -150 is a betable line