UFC 285 Tape Study

Full card breakdown

UFC Vegas 285

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane

Jon Jones is the GOAT. That sucks to say. I’ve been a Jon Jones hater for literally his entire career. He is constantly doing scumbag shit. He can’t get out of his own way. He is the bad guy. But instead of embracing being the bad guy, he tries to tell you he’s the good guy. In doing so he comes off smug and insincere.

Terrible person aside, Jon Jones is the best to ever enter the octagon. His athletic gifts coupled with his insane fight iq created a fighter that has never been beat by another man inside the cage (he beat himself against Hamil). He has a freakish 84.5 inch reach, 85 with those fingers extended, and you know they are always extended. He has a wrestling background that he doesn’t always use. He’s happy to play to his opponents strengths and he has a knack for just getting in guys heads and throwing them off their game. Jones hasn’t fought since 2020 and he hasn’t looked truly dominant since 2019. In a lot of peoples eyes he lost his last fight to Reyes. Jones claims that he was basically bored. He said the fear was gone and he wasn’t putting in the work that he needed to.  Unfortunately I believe him. At heavyweight the fear is back and Jon Jones seems to be training hard as hell. He did the weight jump the right way. He didn’t rush anything and I think we are going to see a revitalized Jon Jones this Saturday

Gane is a French kick boxer who dominated his way to a title shot. His striking is next level. He is 6’4 with an 81 inch reach, but moves like a middleweight. He may not have true one punch KO power, but he is very dangerous on the feet. Cardio holds up even when he was getting out wrestled by Francis. That seems to be the one hole in his game…. However! I don’t think he was expecting Francis to wrestle and it really says something about Gane’s striking that he forced Francis to be a wrestler. Gane may not be the best defensive wrestler, but I think he’s a little better than what we saw in that fight. He also showed some questionable figbt iq In that fight. Gane’s shown a great chin to this point. Eating and recovering from a shot from Tuivasa

This is going to be a great fight. If Jon Jones is anything like he used to be he wins this fight. A prime Jones wins this fight without gaining any weight. I’m willing to take the GOAT at under -200 even If the experiment fails. I will always bet on greatness. People are talking a lot of trash on how Jon Jones looks. I don’t put too much stock in that. Yes it is a risk betting on a fighter coming off a long layoff going up a weight class. Even worse when that fighter didn’t look great prior. In jon Jones case I truly believe those bad performances were caused by boredom and lack of commitment. Obviously that’s speculation, but again I’m willing to bet on one of the best to ever do it.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso

Valentina has been one of the most dominant champion the UFC has to offer. Her only losses in the UFC are to Amanda Nunes at a higher weight class. She’s a striker and has been able to outclass everyone she’s faced in the division on the feet. The area she’s really improved in is her wrestling. Yes, she got out grappled in her last fight by Santos, but she showed poise and her cardio really held up. The Santos fight was the closest she’s had in a long time. Some people say Santos was robbed. I personally scored it for Shevchenko. She spent the last month of her camp in Japan preparing for this fight. Have to think she will be motivated to show she is still the Queen in this division

Grasso is a striker. She’s very accurate and has good striking defense. Really good at using range and landing punches just out of reach of her oppenents. She’s looked better and better every fight. She dominated Araujo in her last fight. Has the slickest boxing in womens mma. Grasso has a decent get up game and is always working from bottom. She can be taken down, but never gets discouraged and her gas tank really holds up well.

This is a really good fight, but one that is very winnable for Valentina. Valentina can hang on the feet with anyone and is the more complete fighter. Valentina will be able to mix in punches, kicks and takedowns vs Grasso’s boxing. That will be the difference. Valentina doesn’t fade, she gets stronger so Grasso will not be able to simply out last her. The best bet in this fight is the alt line over 1.5 rounds. I do think Val wins relatively easy, but the line is out of control at -730. I will not have her in any parlays at that line

Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Neal is a guy I was super high on prior to the Magny fight. He has good boxing and huge power. He’s got good cardio and very good defensive grappling. He looked career best in his last fight against Luque. He threw over 120 strikes, had multiple knockdowns and even mixed in a takedown in that fight. He trains at fortis mma and I hear tales about him and Morono beating each other up in training. He’s a smart fighter. You can almost see him picking his shots, but in good way. Knows when to touch and when to add power. Elite striker, but it really is hard to get what Magny did to him out of my head

Shavkat is the real deal prospect. He’s good at everything. He’s massive, he’s got good striking and if he takes you down he breaks you down. This kid has dominated everyone he’s faced so far. Throws in combination, great timing with his knees and he really uses his striking to set up his takedowns. He uses multiple techniques to get you down and once it’s on the ground it’s his world

This is a huge test for Shavkat. I have a feeling he’s going to get hit a bit on the feet. The thing is he has too many advantages in this fight. He is going to look massive next to Neal. Tapology says he only has a two inch height and reach advantage. I promise you it’s more. Also, despite Neals great tdd Shavkat will be able to get him down and he will smother him there. Shavkat wins and possibly finishes. I see this guy getting the belt at 170

Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner

Gamrot is a freak. He is super strong and can out wrestle just about anyone. He is one of the best scramblers I have ever seen. This guy is super hard to deal with. He has faced amazing competition so far in the UFC and has been a tough fight for everyone. He has an amazing chin and throws a nice right hand. The guy will not get tired. He’s a bad matchup for legit anyone that’s not Arman or Beneil and he is capable of beating anyone in the world on the right night

Jalin Turner is 6’3 and is one of the biggest light weights out there. He’s only 27 years old and he has been brilliant as of late. He’s on a 5 fight winning streak and he’s finished all 5 within 2 rounds. Turner has sick submissions and massive power in his hands. Turner looked excellent against Mullarkey. He was blasting him with elbows, knees, front kicks, high kicks, straight rights, the kitchen sink. At 27 he’s still improving as a fighter. He blasted Riddell out of there in 45 seconds. He can be hitable at times and has been KOd in the past. His last loss was to Matt Frevola and he was out grappled.

Gamrot is taking this fight on short notice. I’m not worried about someone like Gamrot though. He’s always in shape and should be at 100 percent during the fight. He’s also had some time to prepare. Turner is the question mark here. How much has he improved? His last fight ended so fast we didn’t really get to see. Gamrot shouldn’t be so easy and I think Turner is really going to struggle with the grappling. Gamrot wins this fight, but Turner is always Dangerous. Buyer be ware

Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett

Everyone is talking about how this line has gotten out of control, but has it? Value is still on Nickal. This is a shit kicking. Nickal round 1 is easy money

Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones

This fight is also easy to breakdown. Cody is better than Trevin Jones everywhere. Cody is supremely talented, but has a fatal flaw. That fatal flaw is located right on his face and it’s his chin. I do like that he spent some time off after his last loss. He’s been putting in work too. He spent some time with Khamzat and the boys and it looks like he’s just been seeking out the best training. Cody should fuck up Jones here unless he is truly shot. Jones is training out of Fortis MMA. I’m not sure if that’s new for him or not. Doesn’t effect my thoughts much on the fight either way

Derek Brunson vs Dricus Du Plessis

Dricus is a fan friendly fighter. He has the look, he has the style and he just goes for it man. Dricus is also a guy I’ve been looking to fade since he’s come to the UFC. His striking is elementary. He sprints forward, chin up, winging heavy punches. He is there to he hit. His cardio is not the best. His submissions are great, but he’s not the most technical wrestler. He uses his strength and athleticism to overcome technique. He did not impress me at all against Till and he will not be able to rag doll Brunson.

Brunson has fought far superior competition and should have a grappling and cardio advantage in this fight. Brunson is being disrespected with this line and I expect him to weather the storm early. Get a takedown off of Dricus blitzing in wildly and beat up Dricus on the ground. Would not be shocked to see a Brunson finish. Brunson at +195 is the play

Viviane Araujo vs Amanda Ribas

Araujo is a womens fighter I really like. This fight in general is pretty good. Araujo has excelled in the wrestling department in all her fights, she even mounted Chookagian at one point in their fight. She’s athletic and strong with good power and submissions. She got out classed on the feet against Grasso. No real shame there. She showed her toughness and was able to take her down twice. Araujo may have been out struck by Grasso, but she is no slouch on the feet. She hits hard and has a good chin herself

Ribas is someone the ufc really wants to do well and for good reason. She is pretty and has an extremely bubbly and outgoing personality. Very likeable. She’s a pretty good fighter too. Shes a great wrestler and on the ground she’s an ace but she has started to love her striking. She has wins over Dern, Carnelossi, pvz and Markos. She can get rocked and seems a bit chinny. She got dropped and hurt bad by Virna in the first round. She lost a split to Chookagian in her last fight

This is a close fight and whoever gets the better of the grappling should win. I favor Araujo to win that battle and I think she has a major advantage on the feet as well. Araujo is the pick

Julian Marquez vs Marc Andre Barriault

This is the biggest stay away fight on the card. I watched the tape so you don’t have to. It was a waste. Neither of these guys is good and you shouldn’t feel confident backing either man after their last few performances. Stay away

Ian Garry vs Song Kenan

Garry is an Irish fighter and he’s only 25 years old. He’s 10-0 with 6 finishes. He trains at kill cliff fc and is a legit prospect. He started off his UFC stint looking very green. He finished Jordan Williams on the first, but didn’t look great doing it and then he went to a decision with Darian Weeks. Garry showed his improvements in his last fights against Gabe Green. Against Weeks his corner told him time and time again to stop trying to put so much power into every strike, against Green he made this adjustment and it really paid off. He’s young, at a good gym and I really like his footwork. Chin is out there a little bit though

Song Kenan isn’t bad. He’s a decent striker with some good pop in his hands. He has a punchers chance in this fight, but that’s about it. This is a step down in comp for Garry and a Taylor made opponent for him. I see Garry getting an early finish

Mana Martinez vs Cameron Saaiman

Despite lack luster results in the ufc, I do think Mana is a prospect to watch. He struggled with Guido, but we now see Guido isn’t half bad. He struggled with Ronnie Lawrence and there’s no shame there, but what impressed me is that his gas tank held up and he had Lawrence hurt BAD in the 3rd round. Kids got power and seems to have the right mind set to succeed in the UFC. He followed up the loss to Lawrence with a hard fought split Dec win against always tough Brandon Davis. He’s got power in his hands and great accuracy. Kid is also as tough as they come

Cameron is only 22 years old. Watching tape on him you can see the improvements fight to fight. He’s technically sound in his striking and has great entrances and timing on his takedowns. He is still sharpening his skills though, and sometimes is a bit out of position or over aggressive and gets hit. He’s shown a great chin to this point and his flaws have not hurt him. He was tested in his last fight against Koslow. He didn’t look great early on, did get taken down and took some damage, but I really like how he never gave up. He showed some toughness and never accepted bottom. The scrambles from Saaiman were wild. Kid is tough

I tried to fade Saaiman in his DWCS fight. That wasn’t the spot, but this is. Mana is a little too big a step up for Saaiman at this stage in his career. The line is wide and Mana is a great play this week

Jessica Penne vs Tabitha Ricci

Another stay away fight for me. Penne is 40 years old and is coming off a loss. Ricci has all the tools to win this fight, but is also fairy unproven. Picking Ricci to make it look easy, but staying away

Da’Mon Blackshear vs Farid Basharat

This fight is not close at all! These Basharat brothers are the real fucking deal. His striking is nasty, his footwork is nasty, his wrestling? You guessed it, nasty. Blackshear isn’t good at all. He has some tricky submissions, but he is no threat to Basharat. Basharat’s weakness will be a power puncher. He tends to leave his chin out there to be hit. Blackshear won’t hit it. Basharat by finish

Esteban Ribovics vs Loik Radzhabov

Sorry to say, but this is a stay away. Esteban has legit power and has looked really good, but he’s fought a bunch of nobody’s. Loik on the other hand is a staple of the PFL. He’s fought very tough competition and has a non stop come at you style that can give anyone trouble. Loik is the rightful favorite, but he is taking this fight on short notice. That alone screams stay away. Also who knows, maybe Esteban is the truth