UFC 286 Betting Card and Breakdown

props + Parlays

UFC 286

Things are a little different this week. The March Madness tournament is on my Mount Rushmore of sporting events. March Madness, The Kentucky Derby, The Super Bowl and those special UFC cards.

Because of this I will only be breaking down my bets instead of the entire card. Don’t get it twisted I watched tape all week like usual.

Usman + Fiziev = +100 Bet 2 units to win 2

Fiziev by TKO +150 Bet 1 unit to win 1.5

Fiziev round 1 +300 Bet .5 units to win 1.5

Bryan Barberena +295 Bet 1 unit to win 2.95

Joanne Wood ITD +425 Bet 2 units to win 8.5

Ludovit Klein by tko +130 Bet 2 units to win 2.6

Mokaev ITD + Patterson ITD = +225 Bet 3 units to win 6.75

Lerone Murphy + Marvin Vettori = +114 Bet 3 units to win 3.42

Kamaru Usman As A Parlay Piece

The rematch we all saw coming. Edwards vs Usman was a competitive fight. Edwards looked good round 1, even got a Takedown over Usman, but after round 1 it was all Usman. That is until the final frame. Edwards pulled it out his ass and knocked out Usman. Now it wasn’t complete luck. Edwards was setting that kick up all fight, but you have to think it was a combo of the ref separating them and Usman thinking he had it in the bag that lead to that kick landing.

Usmans wrestling advantage in this fight should not be slept on. He got knocked out in their last meeting so I’m not sure how much he will want to hang on the feet. The first sign of adversity, expect the takedown. Usman is the better fighter and I think he gets the win here

Rafael Fiziev As A Parlay Piece and TKO Prop

I really like Justin Gaethje a lot. He’s one of the most exciting fighters the UFC has ever seen. The UFC knows this and knows he’s a big name and they are planning on capitalizing on his name Saturday night. This is such a bad matchup for him. Fiziev is a KILLER. Pretty sure he’s juiced to the gills, but what USADA don’t find don’t count.

Fiziev has fought very tough comp in the UFC and has looked amazing. He’s coming off a knockout win over RDA. Gaethje is a brawler with power, but fiziev will be too much. Fight doesn’t go the distance is a great bet and so is fiziev by tko

Bryan Barberena Money Line

Gunnar Nelson is a specialist. He likes to drag you to the ground, get on your back and choke you out. His BJJ is some of the best in the game. He has a karate style on the feet and comes in with the classic karate blitzes. When he is able to implement his gameplan he is amazing.

Barberena has a knack for knocking guys off their gameplan. Barberena makes a fight dirty and if he can make this fight dirty against Nelson he has a shot. I’m not very confident in this 1 unit play, but I love Barberena and Gunnar doesn’t always show up. Worth a poke for me

Joanne Wood With the Finish?

“I’ve only got one more fight after this on my contract, so the goal right now is to get back in the win column and get another contract,” added Wood. “Because I feel like I”m not done yet.”

No retirement talks for Wood. She is motivated and gets a big step down in competition here. Luana is long and awkward and can go to work on lesser opponents, but she has so many disadvantages in this fight I don’t see how she wins.

Wood isn’t known for finishing ability, but Luana does get finished. Her two losses in the UFC were both by finish and Wood may be her toughest test yet. Wood dominates on the feet and ground and gets a ground and pound finish over the very unathletic Carolina

Ludovit Klein by TKO

Klein is a guy I was very high on prior to him getting dog walked by Nate Landwehr. He has since bounced back and cost me money yet again when he destroyed Mason Jones. All the tools and talent I saw in Klein initially were on display in that fight. This dude is a very talented striker and has shown he can wrestle as of late.

He’s fighting Jai Herbert who is no easy fight, but Jai has a very questionable chin and a style that leads to a finish either way. Klein will be one step ahead and should be able to finish the talented, but chinny Herbert

Mokaev ITD As A Parlay Piece

-800 is a little wide, but this dude Mokaev is a real talent. We say he’s been “struggling” but that’s only because we hold him on such a high pedestal. Jafel Filho is coming off of DWCS and I’m not impressed. I think we look back at this ITD number wishing we put the house on it

Patterson ITD As A Parlay Piece

The old me would have picked Ashmoz in this fight. Patterson didn’t look amazing in his contender series fight and Ashmoz is very scrappy. But that is the wrong play. Ashmoz may be scrappy, but he is sloppy. Patterson didn’t look great, but he’s young, athletic, has massive physical advantages and was able to pull out the finish win despite wary struggles. Patterson is legit and will finish Ashmoz who isn’t UFC caliber

Lerone Murphy Parlay

Lerone accepted a fight against a very tough unknown opponent making his UFC debut. He easily could have waited for Wood or a bigger name. He didn’t. This tells me he is fully recovered from that bike accident and is ready to pick things up right where he left off. Murphy has fought very tough competition and has looked amazing. Santos has looked great and is undefeated, but isn’t battle tested like Murphy. Murphy shows this kid that he’s bitten off more than he can chew. Line is great too

Marvin Vettori Best Play On The Card?

Dolidze is fun. He goes for the finish at all times, but honestly how does he win this? I highly doubt he can get Marvin down and he will get eaten alive on the feet. I’ve heard stories of them training together and it didn’t go well for Dolidze. Vettori just keeps coming with pressure. This is a bad matchup for Dolidze and I honestly think Marvin gets a finish. I may go place Marvin ITD right now