UFC 287 Betting Breakdown

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UFC 287

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira

This is the rematch we all wanted! Their first fight was a close one all the way up to the finish. Adesanya looked sharp early. He rocked Pereira badly at the end of round 1z  Through out the fight he looked good on the feet and had some success grappling as well. If this fight went to a decision Adesanya would have had it in the bag.

Despite Adesanya’s success, Pereira looked dangerous the entire fight. He was constantly walking forward showing that power. upon rewatch I think he got rocked at the end of round 1 because he stopped fighting a little early. Lack of concentration on Pereira’s side. This takes nothing away from Izzy. Izzy capitalized on it and Pereira cannot make this mistake again. When Pereira finally finished Izzy it was no surprise. That threat was there the entire fight and it almost felt like if he was more aggressive early he may have been able to get that finish earlier.

Pereira is working with Glover up in Connecticut and I’m sure he’s improved his takedown defense since the last fight. He is still green in MMA and every camp we can see improvements. The one thing that scares me in the rematch is the chin of Pereira. I think he can be finished, but I’m not sure if Izzy is the one to do it. Either way I think this fight gets finished inside the distance and that number is very betable. I’m going with Pereira by tko again. He just has his number

Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal

Hearing everyone say this line is wide, but I think it’s wide for a reason. Masvidal just isn’t that good. He has the Mcgregor thing going for him, where he talks a huge game and can really convince you that he is this scary dude and for 99 percent of the world he is a scary fucking dude. He will run up on you on the street and sucker punch you. That’s pretty scary, but for a UFC fighter he no longer brings that much to the table. He has good striking with some good power. Gilbert is more than capable of standing and trading with Jorge Masvidal. That would be a competitive fight, but this is MMA and Gilbert Burns is a tank. This dude has vastly improved his wrestling and on the ground he has aggressive BJJ.

Masvidal is a one trick pony at this point. Gilbert burns inside the distance

Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez

Adrian Yanez is a beast. He is a technical striker and makes some of the best in fight adjustments I’ve seen out of a fighter. He uses round 1 to read his opponents, makes the right adjustments and uses his speed and accuracy to finish his opponent. He hasn’t fought the highest level of competition. Rob Font will be his toughest test to date no doubt. I love the body work Yanez puts in. Really rips to the body. He is hitable though

Rob Font is being disrespected a bit here. He’s lost his last two fights, but he went the distance with Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera. He is a volume striker, capable of putting up well over 100 strikes in 3 rounds. He is one of the best boxers in the division and he is very well rounded. Font trains at a great gym in New England cartel and you have to think being in the training room with Katar has made him who he is today. They’ve molded each other. Font is hitable and has been dropped many times over his last few fights. So far it hasn’t cost him a tko, but it looks like that may be coming.

Yanez is screaming he’s going to get that finish, but Font is tough. I think Yanez is great, but he may be a little over hyped at this point. I like Font as the dog, but I am scared of the finisher my potential of Yanez. I can see this fight finishing either way, but late. Fdgt is a great bet. Don’t forget to keep an eye on the weigh ins for this one. Font has struggled recently to make weight

Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibio

Kevin Holland reminds me of Terrance McKinney. They are flashy and have insane finishing ability, but are extremely flawed fighters (Kevin Holland is better than McKinney and has a much better gas tank and chin). Holland has crazy finishes and wants to be in a firefight. He has very very low fight iq which we saw on full display against wonderboy. Ponz is old and has durability questions, but a prime ponz beats the breaks off Holland. He’s not in his prime though. I don’t mind a dog shot on Ponz, but Kevin Holland by tko seems most likely

Raul Rosas Jr vs Christian Rodriguez

I love this fight. Two young prospects going at it. There is no doubt this will be a fight of the night contender. Christian Rodriguez has excellent boxing. He stays tight and fights behind a great jab. On the ground Rodriguez has nice submissions, but he is susceptible to the takedown. That is the reason Rosas Jr by sub is a smash spot. Rosas will be the bigger man and will get Rodriguez down. On the ground there aren’t many guys that can hang with Rosas. Rosas gets another early submission win…. If he doesn’t get Rodriguez down he will struggle to hang with him on the feet.

Chris Curtis vs Kelvin Gastelum

Chris Curtis has great boxing, great cardio and great defensive wrestling. He trains with Sean Strickland so you know he’s getting good looks in training camp. Curtis is a bit of a baby though. His online presence is brutal. He constantly complains about everything. I don’t like Chris Curtis (don’t know him personally. I don’t like online Chris Curtis is a more accurate statement. I’m sure he’s fine IRL as they say).

Kelvin Gastelum is a weird fighter because at his best he is capable of being champ. He just doesn’t always show up. He’s coming off of that weird pull out where he fucked up his teeth real bad and had staph on his face. I love that he is at fight ready now and I expect him to come out with a great game plan. I don’t think Chris Curtis is as good as he’s being made out to be. Gastelum gets back on track with a dominant win over the action man

Michelle Waterson vs Luana Pinheiro

Michelle Waterson has come full circle. She was extremely overrated and now at 18-10 she is extremely underrated. She showed a good account of herself against Marina Rodriguez and Lemos. She has good striking, good takedown defense and some good throws of her own. She’s fought a very high level of competition throughout her career. At 37 years old she looks to be in the best shape of her career. I love the way she’s talking in the lead up as well. No retirement talk what so ever.

Pinheiro is a beast. She has great judo and she is aggressive on the feet. I do question her toughness and her cardio. I think she is going to struggle with the footwork and movement from the karate hottie. She may have some success early, but I think she loses this fight. Dog or pass womens mma fight

Gerald Meerschaert vs Joe Pyfer

Meerschaert is good if his opponent is tired. He’s got some good BJJ, he is the misfit toys version of Paul Craig. Don’t over think it. Pyfer isn’t a world beater, but he hits very hard. He will knockout Gerald round 1

Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman

Shocked to see anyone taking Sherman. The knock on Karl Williams is that he gassed, well Sherman gasses too and has dog shit wrestling. Williams gets takedowns at will and even if tired he can lay on top of Sherman who will also be tired. Easy dub for Williams who probably finds a finish despite having nearly no finishing ability

Cynthia Calvillo vs Lupita Godinez

I looked long and hard into taking Calvillo here and I just couldn’t do it. I don’t like that she’s moving back down in weight. Makes you think she’s searching for answers, going for one last hurrah before she calls it a day. The experiment up at 125 did not go well at all and coming back down to fight Lupi is a tall task. At this point in their careers I think Lupi beats her everywhere and possibly gets a finish in this spot

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Trey Ogden

This is another fight that I don’t think is close. I see some people comparing Bahamondes to Zelhuber, but besides frame and youth I don’t really see it. Plus we all know mma math doesn’t work. Bahamondes is a beast and should be able to punish Ogden on the feet. Ogden has been known to shoot in desperately and get submitted and Bahamondes is more than capable of grabbing the neck. The sub line is currently +700. I like it a lot

Sha Yilan vs Steve Garcia

Yilan is a guy that likes to look for the one big shot. He uses his wrestling in all his fights. He is hitable, but has shown a good chin. Strong and big for the division. He was gifted his last win by James Krause. He is on a 3 fight winning streak, but not over great competition. Relies on his wrestling

Steve Garcia won us a ton of money against Chase Hooper. That one was too easy, but it doesn’t really tell us much for this fight. Garcia should be the better striker, he likes to be aggressive and he hits hard. The thing that scares me about this fight is how Garcia was out grappled by violent Bob Ross. Not a good look, but it was up at light weight. Garcia has a big reach advantage in this fight and as a dog I like him. Not sure if I’m pulling the trigger just yet, but this fight is dog or pass for sure

Jaqueline Amorim vs Sam Hughes

Not betting a debuting Women’s mma fighter at -200. Just not going to do it. At this point you should just be betting the dog in all womens mma. With that said Sam Hughes only beats girls she can out muscle and out grapple. She won’t be able to do that with Amorim. Amorim by sub