UFC Austin

Tape study notes

UFC Austin

Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett

Kattar is a boxer fighting out of Boston. He’s got heavy hands and is a very slick traditional boxer. He has a great jab and rips power hooks to the body. He is at his best when he is leading the dance. Every fight he lost his opponent made him fight off his back foot. Max dominated him that way. Shane Burgos also had success making him fight off his back foot, but kattar was able to land the kill shot in the 3rd. When kattar is cornered against the cage he has a tendency to cover up like a traditional boxer. That doesn’t work with 4 ounce gloves and he leaves his body wide open. He showed the fuck up against Giga and proved he is one of the elite in the division. Very impressed

Emmett is a beast. He’s 37 years old and he comes in shredded every single fight. He’s 16-2. He throws heat on the feat and can wrestle with the best of em. He’s strong as hell. He’s on a 4 fight winning streak, including wins over Dan Ige, Shane Burgos, Betkic and Michael Johnson. His fight with Shane Burgos was amazing. Both guys were throwing bombs and Emmett came away with the win. He takes his fitness serious and he is training out of team alpha male and at Urijiah Fabers gym. His 4 fight winning streak is starting to lose its luster a bit. Ige didn’t look great in his last fight, Betkic is on a 3 fight skid, Michael Johnson is Michael Johnson and Shane Burgos is actually holding up.

This is a great matchup for Kattar. I think he avoids the big punches of Emmett and destroys him on the feet. Emmett should have a wrestling advantage, but he likes to strike more than he likes to wrestle. Kattar has decent tdd and a decent get up game as well. Kattar by Dec

Cowboy Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon

Cowboy is a legend and I don’t want to talk bad about the guy, but he’s done. He fought almost exactly a year ago and got tkod by Alex Morono. Cerrone looks very stiff in all his fights and I really think his style is one meant for the gym rather than the cage these days. He is a slow starter, but throws great combos once he finds his range. He has great bjj, but almost never goes for take downs. He hasn’t won since 2019 and has looked bad in his losses. His loss to Conor was bad. Like real bad. I know it’s Conor, but come on. He’s lost to top comp, but we are starting to see him get tkod by lesser comp as well. I agree with Dana that Cowboy should walk away from the sport

Lauzon is another ufc vet who has dabbled with retirement. He hasn’t fought since 2019, but he got a great win over a very tough dude in Jonathan Pierce. Lauzon has power in his hands and is no slouch on the ground. He submitted jeremey stephens with an armbar back in the day. He also has very brutal ground and pound. He had covid which delayed his ufc return, but thinks the layoff was good for him and he feels ready.

Lauzon knows that cowboy can be put away and I love what he’s saying leading up “He’s really good, especially if you let him get going,” Lauzon said. “If you let him get going and get his footwork, his rhythm, and get his timing and stuff like that he’s hell on wheels, he’s hard to deal with… I think if I can get on him early, that helps me. (But), I think if I rush into it, he can catch me with something, I don’t want to run into a knee or a kick. If it goes later, I’m in really good shape, I’m ready to go 15 minutes. I think the earlier I get on him, the better it is for me.” Lauzon by tko round 1

Tim Means vs Kevin Holland

Tim Means is a guy we all know and love. It’s impossible not to like the dirty bird. His striking is excellent. So technically sound with his standup. He throws sharp elbows that catch his opponent off guard and mixes things up well. Means has some really good trip takedowns that could give Holland fits and once it’s on the ground Means has the advantage by a mile

Holland has all the potential in the world. He can stand and strike with anyone in the 170 or 185 pound division. Where he struggles is with takedowns. He did not feel strong enough at 185 to stop takedowns. He will now be making his second fight at 170. Round 1 against Oliveira didn’t go as planned. In Hollands own words he came out flat. Oliveira and him were scrapping a big. Round 2 started and we got the Holland we all expected. Big power and he finished cowboy with ground and pound. I still question Hollands full commitment to the sport just a bit

Holland can obviously knockout Means, but I think Means is the better fighter. Holland has fought tough comp, but that tough competition has beat him every time. His best win is a knockout over jacre Souza. That was a fight in which he was losing and got a freak knockout off his back. Not sure he would be able to replicate that. He has a split win over Darren Stewart and split win over Meerschaert within the last 3 years. Holland may be a little bit of a hype job and Means is a tough dude. I think Means gives Holland all he can handle, but I actually think Holland does knock him out. I’m back and fourth on this one

Joaquin Buckley vs Albert Duraev

Buckley came on the scene hot! He has one of the coolest kos of all time over impa. He then went on to get starched by Di Chirico. He’s always been a kill or be killed fighter. In his last fight he utilized his wrestling early on to ground the power puncher in Abdul. Buckley gassed badly in that fight and got taken down and beaten up by an also badly gassed Abdul. None of Buckleys wins are over impressive oppenents.

Duraev came into DWCS and looked like a Russian killer. He goes for the takedown right away, knifes through you on the ground and looks for subs. His ground and pound is thrown with no power but he does throw a lot of strikes. He didn’t look like the dominant fighter we may have thought he was against Kopylov, but I suspect that is because Kopylov is a little better than we thought. Duraev does have cardio concerns and I question his chin a bit too

I’m not sure Duraev will ever hit top 10 in the division, but I do think this is a good matchup for him. Buckleys only shot is the ko. Most likely out comenis Duraev out wrestles Buckley and gets a late finish. Buckley will gas first

Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze

Ismagulov is 31 years old and is 23-1 in his career and is 4-0 in the ufc all by decision. He is a very smart fighter. Utilizes a great jab and sets up his takedowns well. On the ground he smothers you and never lets himself get out of position. Great subs and even better submission defense. He got rocked bad in his last fight and stayed composed through a tight guillotine. He will have a 3 inch reach advantage in this fight

Guram shocked everyone in his UFC by getting a hard fought and well earned split Dec win over Matuesz Gamrot. That victory has aged very well as Matuesz has gone on to win 3 in a row over Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens and Diego Ferreira. Guram has been away from the cage for 2 years due to a knee and rib injury. He also had some visa issues. Back in February Guram said he is finally injury free, so it would appear he had a full healthy camp. He’s friends and training partners with Khamzat.

This is a really hard fight to call. Damir has the advantage on the ground, but Guram showed he is very active from bottom. He constantly looks for subs. On the feet Guram throws very heavy kicks and Damir is there to be kicked. Problem for Guram is that if you don’t put Damir away, he never stops walking forward and he is constantly landing a very hard jab. I think this is a bad style matchup for Guram unless he’s leveled up and just starches Damir. I got Damir by Dec

Julian Marquez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Marquez is a submission specialist. He has heavy hands too, but he is there to be beat on the feet. He trains under James Krause who is one of the smartest coaches out there. He’s on a two fight winning streak over maki and Sam alvey both by sub. He was losing to maki before coming back with the sub. He’s a tough dude that can take a beating and comeback and still win. Bit of a comeback kid

Gregory Rodriguez is a grappler. He has super good bjj and competes in tournaments on his free time. He’s very heavy on top and is big for the division. He has heavy hands and proved in his last fight that he can hang with elite strikers on the feet. Was also happy to see his chin hold up in that fight. He’s been training over seas with Brendan Allen and then back in Florida with Emiliano Sordi who also has a fight this week.

This is a bad matchup for Marques who will be out gunned on the feet and the ground. Outside of catching Robo Cop I don’t see him winning. Robo cop with confidence

Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley

Adrian Yanez is a beast. He is a technical striker and makes some of the best in fight adjustments I’ve seen out of a fighter. He uses round 1 to read his opponents, makes the right adjustments and uses his speed and accuracy to finish his opponent. Yanez was in a war against Davey Grant in his last fight which saw him get a split Dec win. It shouldn’t have been a split. Round 3 was close but it was clear for Yanez. He knows he’s going to have to wrestle for this fight so he went ahead and trained with Aljo and Dvalishvili. Love love to see that

Before Tony Kelley’s last fight I hadn’t been very impressed. He has a hard fought win over Alqaisi and had losses to kai Kamaka and Kevin Aguilar. But man he beat Costa up. He has good wrestling, hits hard and he’s a grinder. He’s in some hot water for comments made while coaching. I think it’s a little over blown. Don’t know the guy, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of doubt that it was said in the heat of the moment.

This is a good fight and Kelley has some tools to give Yanez problems. I think Yanez is the real deal though and knocks out the 35 year old in round 2

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Natalia Silva

Jasudavicius should be the bigger of the two fighters and she really showed off some great wrestling in her contender series fight. She is still raw, but she is a decent women’s prospect. She feels like going through dwcs got the ufc jitters out of the way and that proved to be correct against Kay Hansen. She was able to land 2 takedowns, avoid the subs and get a reversal against Hanson

Silva hasn’t fought since 2019 and this will be her ufc debut. Majority of her wins are by armbar over girls you’ve never heard of. She does have good bjj and is athletic

I don’t see why everyone is saying Silva has a shot here. Jasmine will be the better wrestler and is smart enough to keep her arms safe. Jasmine wins easily

Court McGee vs Jeremiah Wells

Court McGee is the definition of a meat and potatoes fighter. He isn’t bad anywhere, but he isn’t great anywhere either. He has fought some tough comp, but he is starting to get up there in age. He proved me wrong in his last fight and grinded out Ramiz. The old man can still fight

Jeremiah Wells is a freak athlete with a ton of raw power. He starched blood diamond in his last fight just as he should. He throws everything with ko power and will end combos with takedowns which I love to see. His cardio actually seems to hold up. This dude at 35 doesn’t have the cage age that some have

I like wells to win the wrestling exchanges and be too strong and powerful for McGee. Fading McGee one more time. Wells round 1

Ricardo Ramos Vs Danny Chavez

Ramos is 26 years old and is 15-3. He won his last fight against bill algeo and he looked great in that fight. He dominated the grappling and striking in that fight. He has fought some very tough comp in the ufc losing to said nurmagomedov and lerone Murphy. He trains out of team alpha male and the wrestling shows. He took down algeo 8 times. On the feet he is very tricky and has good striking however he was out struck by bill algeo. He is good everywhere and proved it against Tukhugov. That was a great fight between two guys in high on. Ramos also showed that maybe his chin isn’t so bad

Chavez is a meat and potatoes type fighter. Has decent takedowns, decent power and is pretty good everywhere. His last fight was a draw to Kamaka and before that he lost to Gordon by Dec. Chavez can beat anyone outside of the top 15 talent level

Ricardo Ramos should win this fight easily. I think this kid is a legit prospect and he seems to show improvements every fight. Ramos slightly better everywhere. Wins a Dec

Maria Oliveira vs Gloria De Paula

Maria Oliveira is only 25 years old. She’s a very long fighter. Has long legs and long arms. Very good power for women’s mma. She tries to emulate her idol Anderson Silva in the ring, but she is very hitable. She is a stand up fighter. Throws volume with her kicks and looks good when she lets her hands go. On the ground she has really had some problems. Her tdd isn’t good and she lets girls pass to mount with ease. She is young and always improving

Gloria de Paula is only 27 years old and just got her first UFC win. She used cage control and takedowns to get that win. The current judging doesn’t value that as highly. At 27 she is improving. She has decent power in her hands and looks to be in very good shape

Idk what to think of this fight. First glance de Paula should be a little more polished, but I’m going to stay away from this one

Eddie Wineland vs Cody Stamann

This is a pretty easy fight to breakdown. Wineland is a little over the hill and has become extremely chinny. Stamann is good everywhere, but has been fighting a murderers row recently. Stamann stays safe and does what he does. Wins a Dec. not worth the price tag though. Wineland if anything hits hard

Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn

Phil Hawes first introduction to the ufc was a head kick loss to Julian Marquez on dwcs. After that fight he won 3 in a row before getting a second chance on dwcs. He won this by first round tko. He’s an excellent wrestler. Junior college champ and wrestled briefly at iowa. He has tremendous power  and a 77.5 inch reach. His last 2 wins were impressive over Imavov and Kyle Daukaus. He did get rocked in both of those fights and relied on his wrestling to get him through. Tons of round 1 knockouts. Fast twitch athlete 

Deron Winn is a national champion wrestler. He is one of the best pure wrestlers in the game and is DCs boy. Mini DC. Trains at aka and at DCs wrestling academy where he is a coach. He has fast hands, a good chin and obviously excellent wrestling. He’s undersized for the division, but he’s coming off a good win against arroyo. Hearing him talk he loves this matchup. Stating he thinks he will be the better wrestler. 

I like Winn as the dog a lot. Hawes relies on his wrestling when he is in trouble and he won’t be able to get Winn down. Winn makes this gritty and out wrestles and strikes a tired Hawes 

Roman Dolidze vs Kyle Daukaus

Dolidze is a wrestler. He doesn’t have much power, doesn’t throw with volume and stays safe on the ground. He’s a position over submission guy. Does not fight with a style that the judges like these days. He’s strong and can land multiple takedowns in a fight. He had 5 in his last fight. Was high on him when he first came in and I’ve faltered on him. I don’t think he’s the guy we thought he was when he first came into the ufc

Daukaus is a legit prospect. This kid has heavy strikes on the feet and is a killer on the ground. Constantly going for submissions. Never let’s you rest. Daukaus will get taken down, but he’s scrambly when it gets to the ground and tends to reverse position on his opponents.

I like Daukaus alot here. Favorite play on the card. Good matchup for him

pfl notes coming shortly