UFC Charlotte
What is up guys happy fight day! It’s bright and early in the morning (well it’s not so bright. Rainy day over here) and we have some fights in a few hours!
We have a few changes coming to NeverHedge. NeverHedge will no longer be a one man organization. The team will be Launching for international fight week and we will have all sorts of challenges and content for you guys in the lead up. We will be on all platforms YouTube, podcasts, tiktok, Instagram, substack and our own website. It’s going to be huge
I am also changing my betting style. This has been a tough betting year for me and something needs to change. We can’t be stagnant. I am really going to limit the fights I allow myself to bet on. Instead of looking at a card for fights I like, I am going to look through the card for reasons to not bet on a matchup. After eliminating fights I will then go even deeper with tape and stats to narrow down the pool even more. This change in mindset should wrangle us in and hopefully win us some money. My bets this year have been bad, but I’ve still been making good reads. This will hopefully keep us on the good reads only more often
UFC Charlotte Fights I’m not betting
Jessica Rose Clark vs Tainara Lisboa
You never know what you are getting from Clark. Sometimes she looks like she can dominate fights with grappling and other fights she’s completely defeated from the jump and gives up. We also have a debuting fighter in this matchup. I am not going to simply rule out all debuting fighters because I do think we get some juicy matchups for prospects the UFC likes, and that very well could be what’s happening here, but Lisboa has fought no one. Not risking my money on this one
Bryan Battle vs Gabe Green
Right away I favored Bryan Battle. Then he missed weight and i rewatched his fight with Fakhretdinov and I really didn’t like his body language. Gabe Green doesn’t go away, but I also don’t think he’s all that skilled. At this point Battle may be fraudulent as well. Not sure and for that reason I’m out
Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm
I really favor Kim here, but the line is not right. This is Women’s mma. The dogs are all live. No thanks
Matt Brown vs Court McGee
This one hurts me to not bet, but Matt Brown looked old in his last fight and Court McGee got starched. McGee may have the gas tank to beat Matt Brown, but Brown won’t give up and will be coming out hard. Both of these guys have paths to victory, it will just be who has more left in the tank. I’m not sure who that is
Tim Means vs Alex Morono
I fucking love Tim Means. I think he is the better fighter. I’m just not sure I can trust the chin of Tim Means anymore. I usually would say violence spot and bet the under, but both guys are as tough as they come too. Better to just stay away
OFFICIAL Betting Card
Now that we narrowed down the card, we can get to the fights I do want bets on
Jailton Almeida by tko +180 Bet 1 unit to win 1.8
Jailton Almeida ITD as a parlay piece
Almeida is going to dominate this fight. I’ve been saying since his DWCS fight that he would be a future title contender and I still believe that. Prior to that DWCS fight he said he wants to fight like Khabib. He is not going to stand and bang. He’s smart and will get this to the ground. On the ground he can win by sub or tko. It’s really 50/50, but we are getting a +180 line on the tko so I took it. Rozenstruik is decent at defending subs on the ground as well
Karl Williams ITD -115 Bet 2.3 units to win 2
Karl Williams -410 as a parlay piece
Chase Sherman is terrible and gives up in fights. Williams will not be a fish out of water on the feet, but will have a huge wrestling advantage. He will take Sherman down a million times if he has to. I doubt he has to. Sherman will give up and get finished early
Carlos Ulberg ITD -200 Bet 2 units to win 1
I almost passed on this fight, but watching tape in Ulberg is just impressive. I think those stinkers are behind him and we have a real problem on our hands. Especially in a juicy matchup like this. Ihor is a brawler. That won’t work great against a tactician like Ulberg
Ian Garry -300 as a parlay piece
I was one of the guys saying eventually fade Gary. I still think that, but just not here. He has too many advantages. Don’t know if he finishes, but he’s a good parlay piece
Anthony Smith vs Johnny Walker made it passed my initial scan of fights I’m not betting. After further tape I’m not confident there is an edge to be had. One of these guys is going to look amazing and like the clear side. Good luck picking who it is. I’ll stay away
Douglas Silva De Andrade +135 Bet 1 unit to win 1.35
I’ve been looking to fade Stamann. He’s always in close fights. His wrestling is good, but not great, and he doesn’t have true ko power. Andrade is explosive with everything he does. The way the judging is now he should have the more powerful blows and score well with the judging. Taking the dog here
Jailton ITD + Karl Williams + Ian Garry = +111 Bet 3 units to win 3.33
Karl Williams ITD + Ulberg ITD + Jailton ITD = +258 Bet 2 units to win 5.16