UFC London Tape Study Notes

Full Card Breakdown

UFC London

Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall

Blaydes at times can look like a world beater. On one hand he has all the tools to be a dominant champion. He has the best wrestling at heavyweight by a mile. Problem is he has a tendency to get cracked and he is so awkward that at times he will enter with lazy takedowns. He’s only ever lost to Francis twice and to Derrick Lewis. He waks able to avoid the big blow against jairzinho and then he dominated Chris Daukaus to the point where people aren’t even sure if Daukaus is any good now. When on his game there are very few people in the world who can beat Curtis. He trains at elevation fight team with a small group of big men. He did just get one of his training partners back from TUF. That would be Zac Pauga. This may not seem like a big deal, but Pauga is actually a great replica for Aspinall. He played all 4 years at Colorado state as tight end. He then went on to try out for the Texans as a RB. Athletic dude with hands. This is Curtis Blaydes main training partner and he should be able to give him good looks for a guy like aspinall. Curtis Blaydes also has experience going into enemy territory and winning. He beat Mark Hunt (New Zealand is close enough) in Australia. He says the crowd has no effect on him and he’s proven that to be true.

Aspinall is the new age heavy weight. He’s light on his feet, super athletic and has power to put you out with one shot. In 5 ufc fights he has 5 finishes 4 in the first round. Besides the Volkov fight which really showed how much Aspinall has improved in all areas, It’s actually his fight with Andre arlovski that impressed me the most. He nearly finished the pit bull in the first round, but he did an amazing job of not punching himself out. He also took some shots against the craft vet and the chin looked great. Aspinall is the real deal. He’s been spending a lot of time training in Holland with the best kick boxers in the world. He also said that he brought in a few heavyweight Dagestany wrestlers for this camp. He’s extremely dedicated and I love his approach to the sport. He will be around for a long long time

This fight is so interesting and I can’t wait to watch it, but I think I’m going to stay away betting wise. Whoever wins this fight will end up looking like they should have been -500 favorites. Twitter experts will say they called if, but it really could go either way. We still haven’t seen aspinall pushed. What if he gets grounded a few times and gasses? There are too many variables. Good luck to all bets for this fight!

Jack Hermansson vs Chris Curtis

Jack Hermansson has come a long way in his ufc career. He started off as a very stiff jerky striker who had to get it to the ground to compete, to now competing at the highest level and not looking completely out classed even by the very top of the division. Watch the tape. Very clear change in striking. He keeps his hands up, throws nice leg kicks and has decent power on the feet. On the ground is where he really thrives. He’s an excellent grappler. He bullied shabazyan and was able to get Vettori down twice. He struggled getting Sean Strickland down. He really struggled with the jab of Strickland. Threw his entire game off. It was a very close fight though. He was initially supposed to fight Darren Till and once that fight was off he got some rounds in with Khamzat (we didn’t know it was off yet, but they did). Have to like him training with someone like khamzat who can really push him in all areas

Classic action man to take this fight on short notice. He’s had 3 fights in the UFC now and has 3 victories. He’s not taking an easy path either. His wins are over Phil Hawes, Brendan Allan and Rodolfo Vieira just a few weeks ago. His win against Rodolfo may not have been his flashiest, but he really impressed me. He fought behind an awesome jab and didn’t allow a single takedown. His gameplan against Hermansson will be a similar one and I think that is part of the reason he took the fight on short notice. The other reason is he is around a ton of guys that are very familiar with Hermansson. His buddy Sean Strickland has a win over him, and Curtis has also been putting in work with Khamzat and he will have Darren Till in his corner for this fight. Till went through two training camps prepping for Hermansson. Curtis has a clear path if he does exactly what Strickland did. Fight behind the jab and stay upright. Curtis is a superior athlete to Strickland and has ALOT more power.

This fight is a pick ‘em, but I think it’s Curtis’ fight to lose. We saw how good his takedown defense is and this has been proven through out his career not just last fight. He will be the superior striker and I think he gets back to his knockout ways. Jacks chin has been touched before and action man is going to touch it again. Curtis by tko

Paddy Pimblett vs Jordan Leavitt

Paddy is the latest and greatest hype machine from the UFC. He’s young, he’s brash, he has style and he puts on exciting fights. Is he the best fighter in the world? Will he ever even be a title contender? I’m not so sure. He’s a submission guy who is always looking for a finish and is good in scrambles and off his back. Against Luigi he showed that he has some power in his hands too. I didn’t love that fight for him, because I thought he was a bit reckless, but against this level of comp it works. Against Vargas it was more of the same. Sloppy and hittable on the feet. He dropped to his back and got controlled by Vargas. He was eventually able to get up, landed a takedown of his own and got the sub. He is still very green. Kid is tough as they come though and won’t be easy to be put away in London. Also have to think judges will be leaning his way.

The monkey king Jordan leavitt is a grappler who can submit anyone. He has awkward striking and carries power in those long arms. We called his last two fights exactly and he looked good getting the sub against Sayles and then the split over Ogden. He’s still green, but the kid has some legit potential. Who could forget the slam KO of Matt Wiman. Kid is strong. He throws nice leg kicks and kicks to the body. Defensively sound on the feet. He did allow himself to be pushed up against the cage against Ogden and that’s where Ogden did his best work. Leavitt is an odd bird, but he can fight

This is such a hard fight to call. Both guys have their holes. Leavitt has faced better comp and has shown he can roll with the best of em. Line might be too wide and I really want to fade Paddy, but I don’t think this is it. Paddy will get exposed by a striker with some power. Leavitt isn’t that. Paddy gets the KO and the crowd goes nuts. If you do want to fade Paddy…. Leavitt bet on himself by first round sub. So there’s that

Nikita Krylov vs Alexander Gustafsson

Krylov is a guy that I’ve been high on for a long time. He has all the skills to be great in the 205 weight division and he’s actually a dark horse contender. Match him up with Jiri and I think I’m taking Nikita. Nikita has a bunch of experience for still only being 30 years old and all his recent losses are to top competition. He lost to Jan Blachowicz, Glover (by split), Magomed Ankalaev (by Dec) and then most recently he was beating the shit out of Paul Craig, lost concentration for a split second and that’s all it takes against Craig and he got subbed. I’m not taking anything negative away from the Craig fight. Krylov was the right side of that fight and he is who we thought. A top level talent. His fight with Glover really impressed me. On the feet early he showed great footwork and was throwing nice kicks from range. He fights with a nice jab and has good power in his shots. Glover got him to the ground early and he was able to reverse position and nearly subbed Glover. Krylov looked visibly tired in the second round, but was able to battle through it. He was getting hit with big shots and was eating them and was still able to fire back. He also was able to take down Glover multiple times even as tired as he was. He showed tremendous heart and submission defense in that fight. His fight against Ankalaev was also impressive especially that we know now he went in to that fight with a shoulder injury. He won the first round of that fight. Was able to land nice power shots and his takedowns looked on point early (even though he didn’t land many, he was facing Ankalaev, his entries and positions would have taken most down) Ankalaev is everything that Gustafsson was in his prime and possibly more. This was a good fight to tape for this matchup. Krylov has been training at altitude for this fight and said he felt like he was in the best shape of his career for the Craig fight and feels even better now. Wanted a quick turnaround after the stupid mistake against Craig

Alexander Gustafsson is a legendary fighter. In his prime he was one of the best in the world and I am one of the people that thinks he actually did beat Jon Jones. Gustafsson hasn’t fought since 2020 and he hasn’t fought at 205 since 2019. His heavyweight experiment didn’t work out at all. Werdum was able to get him down and submit him quick. His last fight at 205 was against Anthony Smith and he actually looked decent in that fight until he lost. He is light on his feet, bounces around and comes in with a clean one two. His kick boxing is some of the best the division has seen. Throws good leg kicks as well. Smith got him down in the 4th and submitted him. Gusty retired after that fight and seemed broken. Don’t like to see that at all. He trains with Khamzat and looks to be rededicated to the sport. Looks in tremendous shape and I don’t think the weight cut will hurt him much. Says he’s going to go in there and beat Krylov up

For as good as Gusty looks in training, I think he can be broken. If Krylov goes in and hits him and takes him down (like he does to legit everyone. Even the very top of the division) I think the doubts and thoughts of retirement will creep back for Gusty. Kylov has been underrated forever and I think he takes Gustafsson down and ends up getting the submission

Molly McCann vs Hannah Goldy

Molly McCann has been around forever. She throws volume, is as tough as they come and can wrestle (when she wants). She bounced back from 2 losses and got a win over Kim two fights ago. That win is starting to look a little less impressive because I’m not so sure Kim will be in the ufc much longer. Never the less Molly landed over 120 strikes in that fight and 2 takedowns. This is a home fight for Molly and you know she will be absolutely fired up just like she was in her last fight. She hits decently hard for the division too and we saw that with the spinning back elbow against Luana. That was a fight in which it was looking like Luana was coming on strong. Clear round 1 for Molly, but round 2 was close and Luana came out firing in round 3. Have to think the crowd helped her stay in it. She has become quite the personality since and I’m not sure if that will help her or not. One things for certain is she will fight for your money in London.

Goldy of onlyfans fame is coming off a great win over Emily Whitmire. Goldy doesn’t have nearly the experience of McCann, but she’s only lost to decent comp in Miranda Granger and Diana Belbita. She’s got a good gas tank and is willing to throw down. She doesn’t have the best striking defense. Has a really nice high kick and she will throw it multiple times in a row. Extremely strong for the division. She has shown she can be a beast on the ground. It showed in the Belbita fight and then she submitted Whitmire in her last fight with an armbar from guard. She was getting dominated in that fight early, but was able to pull it off. Goldys main training partner has been Felecia Spencer and that’s a good training partner to have

This is a way closer fight than the line shows. I will be betting Goldy and Goldy by sub out of principle. I actually think there is a good chance Molly gets overly excited after some early success and gets herself into some trouble. Taking Goldy. I can picture Molly apologizing to the crowd now and raising Goldys hand.

Paul Craig vs Volkan Oezdemir

As you guys know very well, I fade Craig every single fight and that is not changing here. He is too one dimensional, he takes too much damage every single fight and the crazy submission wins cannot sustain. Volkan Oezdemir has good take down defense and has only been losing to the top of the division. He’s been training the khamzat and Gusty and I love seeing that. He says he’s been taking his conditioning and strength training more serious and Besides another crazy comeback sub I don’t see him losing this fight. Volk finishes Paul Craig and proves me right. I will not bet Craig ever

Mason Jones vs Ludovit Klein

Mason Jones is a big favorite and for good reason. This is the easiest fight for me to cap on the card. Jones is an absolute dog and he’s shown his skill and heart in the UFC. Klein has shown he has quit in him and he can be dominated. Jones will take down Klein multiple times, drain the tank and finish him. I like jones a lot as a parlay piece and I like the ko prop. Jones can break people and Klein can be broke

Marc Diakiese vs Damir Hadzovic

Diakiese has fought very high level comp and even has wins over lando Vannata and joe Duffy. He’s got very good striking and is good everywhere. He’s only been finished twice and it was by sub both times. He lost a striking battle to Fiziev. Fight wasn’t really close but he made it to decision against a beast. He has split his training between Sweden with khamzat and gusty, and Great Britain top team with the likes of Paul Daley. He is extremely well rounded and showed off his wrestling against Borsch in his last fight. Kid is really good

Damir has been in the UFC since 2016. He hasn’t been overly successful. He’s 4-4 in 8 UFC fights. He’s a bit of a meat and potato’s fighter. He’s pretty good everywhere. Has some pop in his punches and decent wrestling. He has been finished twice in the ufc once by tko and once by sub. He used calf kicks and takedowns to beat yancy in his last fight, but he had to survive a late onslaught. Not the best performance

Diakiese should be better everywhere. He is one of my favorite plays on the card. I can see a finish here for sure

Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Rosa

Wood hasn’t fought since 2020 and if there was ever a get right fight, this is it. Wood has had 3 fights fall through and he’s been itching to get in the octagon. He trains at Great Britain top team with Diakiese and they’ve built a good team over there. His nickname is the prospect and he has looked like one. He’s moving up to 145 for the first time and Rosa will be a good first opponent for that move. Wood should be better than Rosa everywhere. Rosa is a middle of the road fighter. He’s tough and is decent everywhere. Wood is saying he can hang with any 145er in the world. Not sure about that yet, but he will be able to beat Rosa. Wood by Dec

Makwan Amirkhani vs Jonathan Pearce

Makwan proved me wrong in his last fight by beating Grundy. Makwan is a submission wrestler and he is nasty on the ground. He has some cardio issues, but he claims that those are a thing of the past and he is rededicated to the sport. We haven’t had a chance to see this tested yet. Before beating Grundy he lost 3 in a row to Barboza, Kirk and Lerone Murphy. He should have won the Kirk fight, but he gassed, he was winning the murphy fight before getting absolutely knocked to oblivion. Tough matchup for anyone because he is so good at grappling. Submission threat at all times

Pearce is a grinder. He likes to come in and mix up the striking and wrestling. He is at his best when he is repeatedly taking his opponent down. He’s on a 3 fight winning streak, but didn’t look over ally impressive in his last win and none of his wins are over top competition. The one time he fought a superior grappler, in Joe Lauzon, he got starched. Lauzon doesn’t nearly have the wresting of Makwan either

After watching tape I think the wrong guy is favored. Pearces only chance is to take Makwan later in the fight and hope he gassed out. The play is Makwan and if you see him gassing in the fight it could be a good live opportunity on Pearce. Makwan def taking round 1. Play is Makwan, probably by sub

Mohammed Mokaev vs Charles Johnson

Mokaev is a beast! He came into the ufc undefeated at 5-0, but he is not your average 5-0 21 year old. He went 22-0 as an amateur. Kid has some real good experience for his age. His wrestling is unbelievable. He’s creative with his takedowns and scrambles. He’s fast, athletic and has a good gas tank. The real deal and he came in and destroyed Cody Durden. Durden just fought and looked excellent too. That was a good win. Mokaev is a real prospect and they are fast tracking him. Charles Johnson is no fucking joke and I think they are testing him early to throw him in the deep end for his 3rd fight

Charles Johnson is 31 years old, he’s 11-2 and fights out of Tiger Muay Thai. His last mma loss came back in 2018 and was to the beast that is Brandon Royval. He’s won his last 4 in a row and his last win was an impressive 5th round tko over Carlos Mota. If you don’t know who Mota is, he is a highly touted prospect that probably would have signed with the UFC if he had beaten Johnson. Johnson is a kick boxer and has excellent striking. Throws a nice hard leg kick and a front kick to keep range. He keeps his hands low, but he is so loose on the feet. Watch 5 seconds of any of his fights and you can tell this kid knows what he’s doing on the feet. Nice snapping punches too. Super impressive. He got himself hyped up in between rounds prior to finishing Mota and it was awesome to see. Firery kid

Against just about anyone else I would be taking Johnson. Johnson will struggle with the wrestling and athleticism of Mokaev. Mokaev gets it done, but maybe gets tested on the feet and is forced to wrestle. Would love to see Mokaev come out and just blast double right away. Show championship smarts and take away Johnson’s strength.

Jai Herbert vs Kyle Nelson

Jai Herbert is a striker. He’s very smooth and technical on the feet and has the power to put anyone away. He’s tall for the division and will have an 6 inch reach advantage for this fight. Jai does have a questionable chin and his takedown defense looked horrible against moicano. He impressed me even in a loss to tuporia. He had him hurt very badly. Nearly got that finish. He is finally getting a step down in competition against Kyle Nelson. Nelson does hit hard and he may will probably be the better wrestler of the two. Nelson also has a questionable chin and that showed against Billy Q. Jai will have a big advantage on the feet and I think he will be able to keep it standing. I like Herbert and the under quite a bit.

Mandy Bohm vs Victoria Leonardo

Bohm was a 7-0 fighter coming out of Bellator. She had trouble getting in the octagon and had 4 fights canceled because of covid. Her striking is slow but accurate. she likes to use knees in the clinch. When it goes to the ground she is competent. She finally fought lipski and she looked very slow and honestly I’m not sure she is UFC material. She will have a 6 inch reach advantage in this fight. Trains at xtreme couture with her main training partner being joselyn edwards

Leonardo has had the toughest road you can possibly have in womens mma. Her only losses are to Miranda Maverick, Erin Blanchfield, Manon Fiorot and Melissa Gatto. Leonardo broke her arm in the Gatto fight and tried to keep fighting. The doc had to stop it. She is legit as tough as they come. She is good everywhere and trains with Angela kgb Lee.

This is a good fight, but I think the wrong girl is favored. Leonardo is tougher and will be the faster of the two. I like her to win the scrambles and beat up Bohm. Leonardo by Dec

Claudio Silva vs Nicolas Dalby

Claudio Silva throws everything with bad intentions. He is one of those guys who is able to do that because he doesn’t mind if the fight hits the mat no matter what. He has sick bjj and is a very strong grappler. His physical strength has always been an attribute. Dalby is a kick boxer and was former cage warriors champ. He did not look good against Tim means. He got battered for two rounds and was out grappled. He turned it on in the third despite looking extremely gassed the entire fight. One of Dalbys best friends is Damir Hadzovic who is also on the card. They fought on the same card 7 times.

This is a fight between two aging fighters with questionable gas tanks. Both hit pretty hard, but I lean toward the dog. Silva will have a huge grappling edge and I think it will show. Dalby has had some questionable posts on social and I question his mental state coming in. Silva by sub to start the night