UFC Long Island Tape Study Notes

Full Card Breakdown

UFC Long Island

Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

Ortega is a grappler. He used to rely on his submissions and he was the come from behind king. This guy would catch a beating from everyone he faced before coming back and finishing them with a sub. Diego brandao was beating his ass before getting caught. He is super slick off his back. And as of recently has shown massive improvements. He kod Frankie Edgar, got his shit kicked in by max Holloway in a fight that could have been stopped earlier and then beat the shit out of the Korean zombie on the feet!!!!! Has good power on the feet and showed way improved boxing. Always had good movement. He showed heart in his fight against Volkanovski and he had the champ in two very deep submission attempts. Not sure anyone besides Volkanovski gets out of those. He’s a truly dangerous fighter at all times. Tricky for anyone

Yair Rodriguez does not nearly have the resume of Brian Ortega. He has wins over Dan Hooker, BJ penn, Korean zombie and Jeremy stevens. The Dan Hooker, bj Penn and Jeremy stephens wins are all not looking very impressive at this point. Even Korean zombie has not looked great since their fight. Zombie was winning that fight and Yair through the most insane back elbow of all time and knocked him out cold with seconds remaining. Where Yair impressed me was in his last fight against Max. He showed me he’s still improving. He got in a war with Max and never gave up. He is so creative on the feet and throws everything with bad intentions. One thing I loved to see is his use of leg kicks. Throws them brutally hard too. Max Holloway was able to take him down and got to mount and to his back in that fight. Don’t love that going in against ortega

This is a fight between two guys who have really come into their own. Yair has stated he was told he will get a title shot with a win and Ortega has been talking about how he would love to rematch the champ. I ultimately think the line is right. I slightly lean ortega. Not enough to pull the trigger. Just going to sit back and enjoy this high level fight.

Michelle Waterson vs Amanda Lemos

Who doesn’t love the Karate Hottie. She is fun to watch and has a great personality. Very marketable fighter. She is a striker with a wide arsenal. She’s 36 years old and has been fighting high level of competition her entire career. Her problem is she loses every step up that she gets. She is well rounded, can land takedowns, has a good submission game. Her strongest attribute are her kicks which she uses to keep range. She hasn’t fought in a little over a year and I think it was a smart layoff. She got battered by Marina Rodriguez. She took some time and put on a significant amount of muscle. She’s dedicated to the sport and will fight for your money

Amanda Lemos had her first big step up in competition in her last fight and it did not go her way. She got tapped standing. Andrade is an absolute ball of muscle and easily the strongest girl in the division. It wasn’t all bad though. She actually looked great on the feet against Andrade. She has powerful straight punches and lands a nasty calf kick. She has a 3 inch reach advantage against Waterson, but it will look much bigger. Lemos does a great job of fighting long. Her biggest edge will be in accuracy and power. Lemos’s hands are ridiculous.

Everyone is talking about how good Waterson looks and it is great. She seems like she’s dedicated and wants to make a title run, but she’s still Michelle Waterson. She’s a limited fighter. Good striking with 0 power. Lemos is going to hurt her on the feet. Waterson will attempt to wrestle and I don’t see her getting Lemos down. Lemos wins by Dec and batters Waterson pretty good. Gaining muscle and getting in this shape was the last experiment for Waterson. Waterson leaves the gloves in the cage

Li Jingliang vs Muslim Salikhov

Li Jingliang is coming off of the starching he got from Khamzat. Not much to take away from that fight. Khamzat came in took him down and choked him out. He will not have to worry about that approach from Salikhov. The leach has had a sneaky good career and he’s beaten some proven strikers in the past. This includes Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and ponzinibbio and he finished them both. He has good striking and he hits very hard. He struggles against grapplers and we saw it against magny and khamzat. He trains at Sanford MMA and looks to be in tremendous shape coming in this fight. He does have a 2 inch reach advantage and I expect him to look a good amount bigger than Muslim in the cage

Salikhov is a striker and is known as the king of kung fu. The Leach was talking about how this fight is a huge deal in China because Salikhov has a huge following there and will probably even be the fan favorite over the leach even though he is Chinese. Salikhov is on a 4 fight winning streak. His last win was a very close fight against Trinaldo. Before that he was in another close fight and won a split over Elizeu. Salikhov loves to utilize strong kicks and spinning techniques. He is from Dagestan and he actually has been training there as recently as this past April. We did see him land two takedowns against Trinaldo and that would be a crazy smart gameplan against the leach, but you certainly can’t count on it.

This is an interesting matchup and I think the leach is a good dog play. Both guys have power on the feet, but the leach is a little more active and has proven he can knockout guys with granite chins in the past. I worry slightly about the wrestling defense, but Muslim wants to strike. Taking the leach as a slight dog

Matt Schnell vs Su Mudaerji

Schnell is 32 years old and has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Granted all his recent losses are against top competition. Schnell was looking great in his last fight against Royval until he got tapped out. He dropped Royval on the feet, was controlling him on the ground and went for some nice submission attempts. He has a nice one two and has power in his hands. Schnell is a guy who is very proficient offensively, but can be hitable at times and it has lead to him losing some fights. Really like his jab. Has nice pop and he finds his opponents chin.

Su came to the ufc as the best prospect at the ufc performance institute Shanghai. He was only 23 and he proved he’s very legit. Kid is smooth on the feet. Throws a nasty front kick that he uses to keep range and set up his other strikes. Likes the spinning techniques and his hands are fast and land on the button. He does keep his hands low. Punches come straight down the middle and when he has you hurt he jumps on you with power hooks. Athletic kid. His one hole seems to be submissions, which could be a problem against Schnell

I do think Su will be able to find the chin of Schnell on the feet, but Schnell is a live dog and is always dangerous. Su has the advantages and I see why he is a decent sized favorite. Don’t mind him as a parlay piece

Shane Burgos vs Charles Jourdain

Burgos is 14-3 and he’s coming off a win over Billy Q. He’s fought tough comp in the ufc, but he has loss to every step up. He’s a striker and is huge for the division. He looked pretty good in his loss to katar and katar is a great striker. Burgos rips to the body and has a nice jab. He’s aggressive and is willing to stay in the pocket. He is however hitable. He takes so much damage and that was never more evident than in the Barboza fight. It was one of the weirdest kos ive ever seen. Burgos had a delayed reaction and it was a little scary to watch. He again took a ton of damage against billy q. Lucky for him Billy has no power. When Burgos can get his combinations going he is nasty. He has been training At team alpha male with a former opponent in Josh Emmett

Jourdain is still only 26 years old . Hes an exciting fighter. He has slick submissions and power in his punches and kicks. He is a self proclaimed volume knockout artist. He likes to go to the calf, go to the body and watch your “power bar” drain out and then finish you. Hes a Canadian and he has been working with the same guy that got GSPs wrestling to where it is. He credits this for his win over Vannata. He’s a really smart dude and knows his wrestling will never be as good as guys who started when they were young, but he stated the knowledge he is gaining combined with his bjj is enough to set up the subs and get back to his feet. On the feet he is confident. He has some power in his hands and feet. When pressured he does tend to shell up. Against Burgos I don’t love this, but one thing I noticed he does well is he shells up as he retreats and then picks a moment to plant his feet and fire back. He loves to throw the upper cut in this scenario. Burgos was blasted by Billy Qs uppercut multiple times

Very interesting fight. I did not love how Burgos looked against Billy Q. He is so hitable and against a guy with the finishing ability of Charles Jourdain this is a problem. I also love how jourdain has been saying the loss to Erosa changed his career. He basically said he was okay with getting out wrestled and losing so it never changed his approach. After the Erosa loss where he got finished he realized it was time for a change. He actually started working on that wrestling and improving his game overall. At 26 we are still seeing improvements every time out. I like Jourdain as a dog here

Lauren Murphy vs Miesha Tate

Lauren Murphy is part of the old guard. She has been around forever and has some good wins on her resume, but she fights such an old and outdated style. She constantly moves forward and throws sloppy sloppy strikes. It’s almost as if she closes her eyes and throws. Idk if it’s level of comp or what, but her one two actually lands at a decent clip. Her head is straight up though and she gets hit back. She’s very strong for the division and that’s where she makes it her fight. She likes to clinch you up and work in the clinch. She will drag you down if she can, but it’s strength takedowns, not technique. She lasted 4 rounds against the champ and that’s more than anyone thought. Can’t knock her toughness

Tate is a beast. She has been around forever and has only lost to the top of the game. After losing 2 in a row, to Nunes and Pennington, she decided to step away from the sport for 3 years. She had kids and is doing the mom thing. She returned against Marion Reneau and couldn’t have looked better. She was in the best shape of her life physically, but more importantly she seemed mentally refreshed. She got 3 takedowns in that fight and got the tko in round 3. I was all over her against Vieira and she just came up short. She was able to land 122 strikes in that fight and got a takedown. She stated that Ketlen just felt tall and big in their. Since she was already in good shape she decided now was the time to drop weight for the first time. She is taking it very serious and doing things the right way. Here are a few quotes from her on the drop

“So it’s been a very long camp because it had to be slowly done [with] very small, incremental changes that don’t cause stress on the body, but just allow me to naturally, slowly lose weight.”

“That size doesn’t matter,” Tate says. “I’m still performing the same, if not better, pound-for-pound against the same people [in training]. It’s not like the strength has diminished and all of the sudden I feel small. No, I just feel really fast. I feel really quick. 

“And I feel like most of the things that I was trying to do were technique-based anyways. It’s not like I was trying to muscle everything.”

“You know what? If I was competing against the women that are 125 in my gym right now, those women feel so small to me. They’re so much easier to move around. Let’s give it a whirl because I just don’t want to have any what-ifs.’ ”

I love Tate here. Don’t really see how Murphy wins this fight unless the weight cut murders Tate. Tate is a great parlay piece

Punahele Soriano vs Dalcha Lungiamula

Soriano is a brick shit house. He walks forward and throws bombs. Strong for the division. Has good wrestling and grappling. He did get out wrestled badly by Maximov, but he constantly worked his way back to his feet in that fight. He lost a split to

Maximov and suffered an injury in that fight. He Can turn the lights out with one swing. He also has a good chin himself. His cardio is sus, but it will most likely be better than Dalcha’s

Dalcha is a monster, especially at 185. He hits hard as hell, is an athletic freak and uses his raw power to rip opponents to the mat. He lost his last fight to Brundage, but looked a decent up until the sub. He battered Brundage early. I really didn’t like how he looked in the 3rd round of the Perez fight. His gas tank is still something to worry about because every movement he makes is with explosive energy

This fight should be a banger from the jump. I suspect Dalcha will get hit and will look to wrestle. He may have some success early, but Soriano will get back up and eventually find that chin. Soriano is saying all the right things after his loss. Soriano gets back to his winning ways

Ricky Simon vs Jack Shore

Ricky Simon is an animal. He has excellent wrestling and goes to it often. He will chain takedown after takedown. He is super strong, hits hard, but he prefers to drag his opponents into his world, which is wrestling. His style is hard to beat. I love how he’s been saying he’s a 5 round fighter and he can’t wait to show the world that. This guy wants his shot at the upper echelon.

Jack Shore is a wrestler through and through. He’s undefeated at 15-0 and has a style that’s very difficult to beat. He struggled a little with the strength of hunter azure in that fight, but was still able to out wrestle and out scramble him to get the win. His favorite fighter is GSP and like GSP values ring iq very highly. He knows his strengths and what he has to do to win fights.

Both guys have won us money recently and I’m high on both of them. I do think Ricky Simon is the better wrestler and that makes me like him in this fight. Shores footwork has been so good, expect this to go to Dec with Simon coming out on top. Shore struggles with strength at times and Simon is very very strong

Bill Algeo vs Herbert Burns

Bill Algeo is a pace and movement fighter. He reminds me of a mix of like Cruz and Clay Guida. Algeo owns his own gym and I don’t love that. Can he concentrate fully on his own career running a business like that. He’s 1-2 in his ufc career, but he’s fought some tough comp. he can be controlled at times. Lacks strength. His last win over Brito was impressive, but still showed the same holes that he shows over and over

Herbert Burns is 11-3 and is a finisher. He has power in his hands and has good timing on his strikes. He’s the brother of Gilbert Burns so he obviously has BJJ and he has some nasty subs and ground control. He’s a pretty decent wrestler and when he gets you down he shines in scrambles and has a knack for getting the choke. He has 7 wins by submission in his career. He was off in his last fight. Missed weight and gassed out. He looks to be in tremendous shape and I think the last fight was just a blip on the radar.

I LOVE Burns here. I think he gets Algeo down and once he’s down Bill won’t be able to do his normal scrambles, because that’s where Herbert succeeds. I see Herbert getting the sub possibly round 1

Dustin Jacoby vs Da Un Jung

Jacoby is 34 years old he is 17-5-1 and is undefeated in the ufc with a draw against ion cutelaba (I thought he lost that). He proved me wrong and looked excellent against Darren Stewart. He’s on a 3 fight winning streak. He throws heavy leg kicks, has power in his hands and has good cardio. He is a meat and potatoes type of fighter. He trains with Rob Wilkinson and Cody Brundage so he is getting some bad ass training in with fighters who are hot right now.

Jung is absolutely massive for the division. He is 6’4 and has a frame for heavyweight. He’s only 28 and seems to fill out that frame more and more every fight. Clear difference in size from the Mike Rodriguez fight to the knight fight and he’s continued to fill out that frame. He’s very strong and has nice trip takedowns. Once he is on top it is very hard to get up. Makes you wear his weight very well. The way he gets takedowns also allows him to fall right into half guard or side control. He uses double unders, lifts you and trips you. Not the fastest guy, but throws a stiff jab and a nice right cross behind it. Legit how he knocked out Mike Rodriguez. Not the best level of comp. He won his last fight but it was a really weird fight. Neither guy was moving at all. They were standing right in front of each other “toes touching”, as the broadcast team mentioned, and were just throwing single shot punches at each other. Jungs power came through though and he got the dub.

I wanted so badly to be on jung, but this is a winnable fight for Jacoby. He is going to blast Jung with leg kicks and be the more active striker. Love the guys he’s been training with and being in the gym with them everyday will make this fight easier. Pick is Jacoby

Dwight Grant vs Dustin Stolzfus

I think the wrong guy is favored for this fight. Dwight grant has not looked good. Yes he is physically gifted, but now he is moving up to 185. He will no longer be the way bigger fighter. Stolzfus has the perfect style to defeat the power punching of Grant. Stolzfus wants to take you down. Stolzfus hasn’t had success in the UFC, but he hasn’t looked horrible and he’s fought tough comp. I’m pretty confident I’m Stolzfus as a dog. Could even hedge with Grant by tko if you really want

Jessica Penne vs Emily Ducote

I don’t know what to make of this fight. Penne has the experience edge, but she will also be the slower of the two, Ducote will have a big advantage on the feet. She has decent power for the division and is a finisher. Ducote is a decent wrestler, she’s really just a pretty good athlete overall. I did some Instagram stalking and saw a video of her getting her black belt, so she won’t be a fish out of water there either. Penne is a crafty veteran and I don’t want to bet against her just in case she steels another win, but Ducote should take this. Stay away for me though