UFC On ESPN 43 Tape Study Notes

Full card breakdown

UFC On ESPN 43

Cory Sandhagen vs Marlon Vera

Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera are too of the most exciting fighters in the UFC right now. Cory Sandhagen bounced back from two straight losses by beating Song Yadong in his last fight. Sandhagen brings beautiful striking to the cage. He has excellent footwork and is one of the most creative fighters on the roster. Sandhagen is 34 years old and he knows his time is now. He’s been putting in time training with the likes of Raufeon Stots and BJJ ace Ryan Hall.

Marlon Vera is the perennial underdog. This guy just always seems to find a way to win against all odds. He starts slow, he’s hitable, he’s not the biggest or the fastest, but he’s got grit and the killer instinct of a champion. Chito constantly walks forward, stalking his opponents. Over the years his skills have caught up to his aggression and power. He now utilizes excellent footwork and he weaponizes cardio in all his fights. Chito Vera is easy to root for. He is the proud father of a special needs daughter and watching his relationship with his family makes him hard to root against.

For as much as I like Vera, this is a horrible matchup for him. Cory Sandhagen will not crumble under the constant pressure and Sandhagen doesn’t gas out. This takes away the main weapons that Chito uses to win all his fights. I expect Sandhagen to out strike Chito on the feet for a decision victory.

Holly Holm vs Yana Santos

Holm vs Santos is a high level WMMA fight. Holm may be 41 years old, but she just signed a brand new 6 fight deal with the UFC. Holm isn’t going anywhere and I love hearing her talk about how she still wants to compete for the belt.

Yana Santos is coming off paternity leave. She gave birth to a healthy daughter and took some time off to be Mom. She may have taken time off from competition, but she’s been training hard this entire time. Santos is coming off a TKO loss to Aldana, but believes she can get a title shot with a win against Holm.

Holm and Santos have a history of training together and apparently they had some wars in the gym. Fighting in the cage is different than fighting in practice and I’m not sure this fight is all that close. Holm has the technical advantage everywhere and I expect Holm to be able to force Yana against the cage and beat her up for 3 rounds. Holm by decision seems very likely.

Nate Landwehr vs Austin Lingo

This is a true dog or pass fight. Landwehr is our violence, but he tends to start very slow and he’s extremely hitable. His fight IQ is terrible and he’s said in the lead up that he is looking to one up his last performance. This leads me to believe he is going to be even more wreck less than normal. I want to fade him so bad, but I’m not sure Lingo is that dude.

Lingo has decent boxing and he had a bunch of finishes prior to his UFC stint. He’s coming off a long layoff where he dealt with a few injuries. He says the layoff was good for him. Lingo is tough as well and also likes to walk forward. I really am not impressed with Lingo though. His takedown defense is bad and he is a bit of a slow plodding fighter.

I can totally see Lingo hurting Nate the train in this fight and if he gets Landwerh hurt I think he puts him away. Landwerh is tough and exciting, but he’s not a super hero. You can’t expect that kind of survivability and performance every time. I want to faded Landwerh as a favorite, but I’m not sure this is the spot

Andrea Lee vs Maycee Barber

Maycee Barber is a -260 favorite. That’s going to be a no for me dawg. Maycee has all the tools to win this fight. She should be the better grappler by far, but there is a chance she gets picked apart on the feet. Andrea Lee is not bad. Favorites in Women’s MMA cannot be trusted. Don’t bet this

Alex Perez vs Manel Kape

Alex Perez was a legit contender. He’s still only 31 years old, but it looks to me like his best days are behind him. He got train wrecked by Alexander Pantoja in his last fight and before that he had 6 fights canceled in a row. He’s only ever lost to the top of the division, but he doesn’t look good in those fights. Everyone is talking about his wrestling ability and I do agree that he should have an edge in that department, but he hasn’t recorded a takedown in his last 3 fights.

Manel Kape is on a roll. This guy has good size for the division and with that size comes natural power. Kape has recorded 4 knockdowns in his last 3 fights. Manel Kape is one of the best athletes in the division and his athletic gifts should give Perez trouble on the feet and make it hard to hold him down.

Perez may have beaten Kape back in 2018, but in 2023 this is Kapes fight to lose. The line is right. Bet Manel Kape with confidence

Chidi Njokuani vs Albert Duraev

I love this fight! It is the definition of a striker vs grappler matchup. Chidi has proven that he is one of the most exciting guys to watch when the fight is on the feet. He throws a nice teep kick to the midsection and he can bring it to the head as well. He has power in both his hands and has great timing to his strikes that only comes with years and years of training. He throws a great knee up the middle that makes his opponents think twice about shooting on him. Prior to coming into the UFC I was not high on Chidi. He has some glaring holes in his game and most of those holes are in his grappling. He also doesn’t take shots very well. I don’t like his body language when he gets hit.

Albert Duraev had so much hype around  him when he made his UFC debut. People were saying that he destroys guys in the gym. Duraev is your classic Russian wrestler. He struggled with the speed, power and athleticism of Buckley in his last fight, but I did see some things I liked. For one he showed his toughness. Duraevs face was twice it’s normal size and he kept on coming. He was even able to land some takedowns after being rocked. Another thing I like about Duraev coming into this fight is the stuff he’s been saying prefight. He said his last fight may have been exciting, but this fight he will make sure he gets the win.

Duraev is a dog and the dogs are barking. Chidi’s weaknesses show their heads in this fight. Duraev blasts through some big shots of Chidi, gets him down and submits him

Daniel Pineda vs Tucker Lutz

Daniel Pineda is a dangerous fighter early, but he is 37 years old and has not looked good recently. He is dangerous enough to make me question the value of Lutz at -280.

Lutz was dominated in his last fight, but I think he’s got some decent potential. I fully expect Lutz to cruise to victory in this fight, but I doubt I end up betting it

Steven Peterson vs Lucas Alexander

Steven Peterson is a meat and potatoes fighter. He isn’t the fastest guy, but he is a good technical boxer. Peterson likes to walk opponents down and break them with constant pressure. He trains out of Fortis MMA and I love that he has a training partner, in austin Lingo, also on the card.

Lucas Alexander took his UFC debut on short notice against Joanderson Brito. He got dominated in that fight. I don’t love the tape on Alexander. Alexander is very green. He does have some power in his hands and kicks. Lucas Alexander broke Jacob Kilburn’s arm with a head kick, but overall I am not impressed

This is such a good matchup for Peterson. Alexander has some talent, but he doesn’t like fighting off his back foot. Lucas Alexander also has a tendency to gas out and that plays right into the hands of Steven Peterson. Steven Peterson inside the distance is a great play.

Trevin Giles vs Preston Parsons

Trevin Giles is a guy I’ve been high on over the years. He’s finally quite being a police officer and fully committed himself to MMA. He was an undersized middle weight and is now in his correct weight class at welterweight. He has good boxing technique. He’s a very patient fighter and has decent offensive grappling. Giles got us paid in his last fight, but he did not look good doing it. Yes, he was patient, but he was almost tentative. He didn’t want to engage. When he would get hit he reacted dramatically. He allowed east takedowns from Cosce and if Cosce hit the takedowns earlier I doubt we get that win.

Parsons got his first win in the cage against a very underrated and game Evan Elder. Parsons comes forward, has power and has excellent wrestling. He picked Elder up over his shoulder multiple times. On the ground he’s dangerous.

I came in to tape thinking I would like Giles. I came out of tape very confident in Parsons. I think Parsons gets an early takedown and consistently wins rounds. Have a feeling this goes to a decision

CJ Vergara vs Daniel Da Silva

Da Silva is a guy that does everything violently. He hits very hard and he goes for submissions constantly. He’s only 25 years old. He fought Jeff Molina in his ufc debut and that was just too much too soon. Da Silva was able to get on molinas back with both hooks in and nearly grabbed an armbar as he got shucked off the top. He got subbed very quickly against Figueiredo. Not the best look. In his last fight he got tkod by Victor Altamirano in round 1. Even though he loaded he did drop Altamirano early and showed he’s always dangerous. He trains with Chucky Oliveira which you have to like.

Vergara is a junk yard dog. He likes to make it dirty and relies on his chin to make it a war. Despite showing some good wrestling he prefers to keep it standing and does not shy away from contact. Has great cardio and is a very well rounded fighter

This is anyones fight early, but the longer it goes the more it favors Vergara. I’m not going to pick a side here, but fight doesn’t go to decision is a great parlay piece

Manuel Torres vs Trey Ogden

Torres came into DWCS as a big time unknown. He was on a 2 fight winning streak, both by submission. He was extremely hard to find tape on and his 2 losses were against some bad comp. He fought on DWCS against a tough kid that you needed to kill to get out of there and he did just that. Torres won by tko in just over 2 minutes. He’s a young athletic fighter with a good build for the division.He was then given a setup fight with Frank Camacho and it paid off. He destroyed Camacho with a first finish

Ogden is a grappler. A grappler that hasn’t had much success grappling in the UFC. He is a tough kid and got a big win against a good prospect in his last fight. Ogden doesn’t take punches too well, but he has been decent enough at avoiding the big shots to this point.

Manuel Torres has some excellent striking that I think will be a real problem for Ogden. Ogden may have a grappling edge, but he isn’t some wrestling ace or wizard on the ground. Torres by tko incoming

Vinicius Salvador vs Victor Altamirano

Hearing so many people impressed with Salvador. I am not one of them. The kid has power and that is it. He is a wild striker, lacks technique and I feel like he got a bit lucky against Shannon Ross.

Altamirano can do everything. He is extremely tough and I think he has the technique and output to absolutely break someone like Salvador. I see this fight finishing either way, but I like a play on Altamirano here