UFC Sandiego

Tape Study Notes

UFC Sandiego

Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz

Vera is 29 years old and is 4-2 in his last 6. He has been right on the cusp of contention. He just hasn’t been able to get the high profile win he needs. He won 5 fights in a row all by finish and then lost to song yadong. He then beat sean omalley, but that came with a controversial ending. Was it a fluke? Was it not a fluke. Then he fought Jose Aldo and lost to him. He fought Aldo tough in the standup, but got dominated in the grappling. Aldo back packed him for an entire round. He beat Davey Grant by decision and then knocked out Frankie in the 3rd round. Melted Frankie’s face with that front kick. He struggled with Frankie’s takedowns and even though he works well off his back, he accepts bottom position. He looked amazing in his last fight against Rob Font. Showed good power in his shots and he showed everyone that excellent cardio that he’s known for. Vera is good everywhere. He has good submissions, but he shines in the standup. He rips to the body and throws heavy shots. He impressed me in his fight against font and in that Frankie fight. Very creative striker with power

Dominick Cruz is one of the most interesting fighters on the UFC roster. He legitimately invented his own style and techniques. They work so so well for him, but I’m not sure anyone can copy this style haha. His hands are down, his chin is up, but his footwork is so good and he’s always moving that he confuses his opponent and often times evades the strikes of his opponents and will sometimes make them look foolish and completely out of position. He has a wrestling background, but prefers to strike. He is a true student of the game. Real smart fighter. He is 2-2 in his last 4 with losses to Cody no love and cejudo. He proved in his last two fights that he is still the Cruz we all came to know by beating Casey Kenny and Munoz.

This is a very interesting matchup. On one hand I can see Vera finding the chin of Cruz and putting him away. But on the other hand I see all the holes in Vera’s game and Cruz will be there to exploit them. Vera is very hitable. He shells up and protects his head, leaving his body completely exposed. He struggles with wrestlers and Cruz is smart enough to exploit that. Cruz recently said this on the matchup “Just watch him vs. Frankie Edgar, he (Edgar) was beating him until he got tired beating him.,” Cruz said. “You were losing that fight until Frankie Edgar got tired, I won’t get tired. It’s that simple” I like Cruz at dog money here

Nate Landwehr vs David Onama

I honestly have no idea of what to think for this fight. I thought Nate Landwerh was a pretty straight forward fighter to cap. He then went out and DESTROYED Klein. Like beat the shit out of him. He is a grinder. Never stops coming. He has power in his hands and can wrestle. He has the famous quote “if I don’t lose, I’m probably going to win” and I know it sounds dumb, but I know what he means. I think he was trying to say “if you don’t put my lights out, I’m going to win” and this is a fact. Dude is relentless. He looks to be in the best shape of his life coming into this fight as well.

Onama is a huge prospect coming out of glory mma. He came in to the ufc on a short notice fight against mason jones. This was a tough test and he proved he was ufc worthy. That fight was an all out war. He followed it up by knocking out Benitez and then chocked out armfield in his last fight. He is again stepping up on short notice here. He did have ample time to prepare though. Onama hits hard, has good combos and has really shown excellent grappling. Where Onama shows his inexperience is in transitions. He gets caught with his hands in his pockets at times.

I like Onama to win and finish Landwehr, but never forget, if Landwehr doesn’t lose then he’s probably going to win

Yazmin Jauregui vs Iasmin Lucindo

This is a DWCS fight on the main card. Not too sure why it’s on the main card. Maybe that’s a mistake. Either way I’ll be staying away. Yazmin looks good, but at -210 I don’t see value. Lucindo is only 20 and has a ton of potential herself. Easy stay away fight

Devin Clark vs Azamat Murzakanov

Devin Clark is a very interesting fighter to me. I always rated him a little higher than everyone else. Clark is well rounded. Throws a nice 1 2 with more power than he gets credit for. He has good wrestling, but he doesn’t always utilize it. So far in his career he has lost to every step up he has gotten. He can beat middle of the road guys and he paid off big time for us against knight in his last fight. This is an interesting matchup because for once clark will not have a size disadvantage. He trains with magny and blaydes and is genuinely just a very tough guy. Should have a cardio advantage in this fight

Azamat is an undefeated Russian fighter. He had a dominant first round finish on dwcs and followed it up with a hard fought fight against Tafon. In that fight Azamat struggled with the size of Tafon, but showed he is never out of the fight and landed a perfect flying knee that put Tafon out cold. He’s only 5’10, but makes up for it with speed and explosiveness. 8 of his 10 wins were finished in the first round. He can wrestle and strike with the best of em

This is a bad matchup for brown bear. I can’t see how he wins besides Azamat gassing late in the fight and I even have to squint to see that. Azamat gets another finish here

Cynthia Calvillo vs Nina Nunes

Calvillo is on a quite the skid. She’s lost 3 in a row and she was finished in her last 2. She got crushed by Andrea Lee so bad her corner stopped the fight after 2 rounds. I’m honestly surprised she’s fighting again. She used to compete at strawweight and I think she was better suited there. She is a low output fighter and used to rely on her wrestling and just over all octagon control to win fights. Her last 2 fights she only managed 1 takedown and landed less than 90 strikes in those two fights combined. 

Nina Nunes has lost her last two fights and was finished by Dern in her last fight. She’s married to the female goat and you have to think she learns a bit from her. She’s well rounded, prefers to keep it standing. She has a great win over Claudia Gadelha. She’s been putting in work with Tony Gravely. I love to see that. Great wrestler and boxer. She looks to be in tremendous shape.

This fight was rebooked from a couple of weeks ago. Nina pulled out with a stomach virus. Who knows if it was related to the weight cut. Probably was, but nothing changed for me. I think the wrong fighter is favored here. Calvillo looks like a shell of herself. Nunes keeps it standing and wins a close fight

Bruno Silva vs Gerald Meerschaert

Bruno Silva has massive massive power. The dude only needs one. He has an excellent chin and really showed just how good of a striker he is in his last fight. He stood toe to toe with Alex pereira and did not look bad. That fight was close as hell. He’s shown his toughness in the octagon as well. He was getting beat by Andrew Sanchez bad. Out wrestled and had to deal with 3 low blows in that fight. He came out and got the finish in the third round. Despite not having any submission wins he does have a black belt and stated he will show his bjj when it is needed

Meerschaert prior to losing to Jotko, he won 3 fights in a row all by sub. One thing they

had in common was that he was not winning those fights prior to getting the finish. His fight against Muradov  surprised a lot of people. Muradov was a huge favorite and rightfully so. Don’t forget that Meerschaert got beat up bad in that first round. Meerschaert is a submission specialist with an Insane finish rate

Bad matchup here for Meerschaert. Gerald isn’t the wrestler that Andrew Sanchez is and I think he will be stuck on the feet with one of the most brutal strikers in the division. Bruno by ko

Angela Hill vs Lupita Godinez

Angela Hill is 13-12, but is much better than her record. She has fought everyone the ufc has to offer, she’s big and athletic for the division. She’s at her best when she is popping out her jab and on her bike. She has good output and is very rarely outclassed. She has become a bit of a gate keeper. Even though she has good size, she can be bullied and out wrestled. It’s a glaring whole in her game at this point

Lupita is fast and athletic. She has a ton of power for a strawweight. Great takedowns and uses her speed to get in deep and slam you down. Fast hands and can knock girls out. Struggled up a weight class and this fight is listed as a catch weight which I don’t love.

Lupita has all the tools to dominate this fight. I don’t see how hill deals with the wrestling of Lupita. Lupita is a massive favorite and for good reason

Martin Buday vs Lukasz Brzeski

Buday is a massive human at 6’5 and cuts to get to the heavyweight limit. He is 10-1 with his one loss coming to ufc heavyweight contender Juan espino on the Spanish regional scene in 2017. He has heavy hands, has  rocked guys badly with a jab.  He is however very very hitable. He relies on his chin witch is made of granite. He’s very strong and likes to go for the double leg. On the ground he’s great. Heavy on top and he is a competent brown belt. Budays last victory was a bit weird. It ended in the third round after he hit Chris Barnett with an illegal blow to the back of the head. Instead of a dq, Buday was awarded a majority decision. Buday was beating the crap out of Barnett and would have probably got the finish if it wasn’t for that illegal blow

Lukasz Brzeski is a polish heavy weight who at 6-4 he is still a guy who can fill out his frame a little. He’s a mobile heavyweight and has the same body type as stipe. He has some takedown defense problems but is a tough kid who fits the bill for a ufc heavyweight. Brzeski is returning form a 9 month steroid suspension. You know how I feel about that. Brzeski is already the physically weaker man in this matchup and now I lean toward him being mentally weaker as well.

Buday wins this fight easy. He bullies the lighter Brzeski around and gets a win on the ground

Gabriel Benitez vs Charlie Ontiveros

Benitez has looked like a shell of himself. He got beat up and finished by Billy Q and then finished again by Onama. At his best he’s a dangerous striker who kicks very hard. He has excellent leg kicks and has good defensive grappling. He trains out of aka. Have to wonder if all the fight time and hard training rounds have caught up to him. He’s moving back up to 155 for this fight

Ontiveros is a kill or be killed type of guy. He has massive power, but has a questionable chin. He’s all offense no defense. His offense is excellent though. The kid can overwhelm oppenents. He has long arms and is huge for the light weight division. Good bjj as well

I think Benitez is done. Ontiveros looks good when he is the aggressor and Benitez will let him be. Ontiveros finds the finish and Benitez retires

Ode Osbourne vs Tyson Nam

Ode is one of the more exciting prospects on the roster right now. He’s got a long reach, athletic, hits hard and has excellent subs. The sky is the limit for what Ode can do. Ode osbourne is a former teacher and he didn’t start training full time until after losing to manel Kape. He starched Adeshev in his last fight. Trains at syndicate mma

Tyson Nam is also a striker and has some of the best power we’ve seen at this weight class (besides maybe Ode). He has some similar wins to Ode and he finished them as well. Like Zaruk and Rivera. He’s 38 years old now and is coming off a split Dec loss to Matt Schnell.

This is the case of two good fighters that do similar things, but one guy is younger, faster, longer, hits harder. Ode gets another knockout here

Youssef Zalal vs Da’Mon Blackshear

Zalal looked excellent when he first came into the ufc. 3 wins in a row and now 3 losses in a row. Only one of the guys he beat is still in the UFC. He hasn’t looked good at all recently. He trains at a great gym and they all continue to rave about this kid. At 25 he’s still very young, but I do think his ceiling is limited. He’s dropping weight classes for this fight

Blackshear takes this fight on 2 weeks notice. He’s fought some good comp and has shown to be durable. If you watch his losses it looks like he struggles with takedowns, but look who he’s lost to. The best of the best in wrestling. You still might be able to out wrestle him, but take it with a grain of salt. He is on a decent win streak, but against pretty bad comp.

Zalal is limited, but should win this fight. Zalal isn’t much of a finisher and Blackshear is tough. Zalal by Dec

Ariane Lipski vs Priscilla Cachoeira

Lipski has struggled in the ufc. She’s a great standup fighter but she has a very hard time keeping it standing. Everyone seems to be able to take her down at will. After her loss to Montana de la Rosa she switched gyms and now trains at ATT. This switch has really made a difference. She looked great against Bohm, scoring two knockdowns in that fight. Looking at her social she seems to have thickened up a bit. She’s been putting in the work on her strength and conditioning. Looks excellent.

Cachoeira is a pressure fighter. She constantly walks forward, she has power in her hands and she never stops coming. She’s also extremely hitable. She only completed one takedown in her entire career and she most definitely lost her last fight even though it shows a win on her record.

Finally a good matchup for lipski. Lipski’s hands are too crisp and she hits too hard to lose to Cachoeira. I see a finish over the very durable zombie girl. Rebooked up a weight class. Nothing changes

Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan

SET UP FIGHT. Witt has absolutely no chin and Quinlan throws bombs. However there are a couple of red flags going in. Quinlan is coming off a suspension for steroids. He admitted to doing them and says he learned from a bad decision. This makes me question Quinlans confidence in himself. Does he think he can’t hang unless he has the special stuff? This is especially concerning with this matchup. Witt may have no chin, but he is big and strong and can wrestle his ass off. If Quinlan ends up on his back and feels the strength of Witt, these doubts may creep into Quinlans head. Heavily thinking of taking Witt, even with the UFC thinking this is a good matchup for Quinlan

Rebooked because Quinlan was caught still on the juice. This makes me like him more. He just never stopped taking steroids. Quinlan by ko