UFC FIGHT NIGHT: GANE VS TUIVASA Tape Study Notes

Full card analysis

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: GANE VS TUIVASA

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa

This fight is easy to breakdown. Gane is the better fighter. He is more skilled than Tai everywhere. He should demolish Tai. With that said, this is the heavyweight division and anything can happen. Tai hits very very hard and can turn anyones lights out at anytime. He also has an amazing chin and has a knack for luring guys in to his realm. I love the shit Gane is saying in the lead up though. Joking that his gameplan is to “brawl”. He knows better. Gane picks apart Tai and ultimately gets a finish. The line is extremely wide for a heavyweight fight though and I am going to avoid it

Robert Whittaker vs Marvin Vettori

I hate brushing over the main and the co main events, but this is another fight that I see a big skill discrepancy. The line is wide and I don’t see too much value in it. Vettori is good, but Whittaker is better everywhere. Only thing Vettori may have going for him is cardio. Whittaker is supremely talented and should be able to dominate this fight from range. Vettori is tough though and won’t go away easy. I don’t like how Whittaker has been talking about going up in weight and he is starting to get up there in fight miles. I like Whittaker by Dec, but probably no bet for me

Alessio Di Chirico vs Roman Kopylov

Alessio broke up a 3 fight losing streak with a huge ko over Joaquin Buckley. One can’t help but think it was a little flukey. We didn’t get to see much of Di Chirico in his last fight. He was kod in 17 seconds. Di Chirico is good at countering and he’s got a good gas tank against strikers. He struggles against guys who are stronger than him who grind out fights a la Cummings and Muradov. He also struggles against very explosive opponents who can turn the lights out.

Roman kopylov came into the ufc undefeated finishing all his opponents besides 1. Once in the ufc he had a hard time getting to the octagon. He’s had 5 bouts canceled on him. He hasn’t fought since 2019 where he lost to Karl Roberson by submission. He didn’t look horrible on the feet agaisnt Roberson, but he still was losing the fight there. In the third round kopylov allowed a take down from Roberson and instantly got subbed. He showed an improved gas against Duraev and improved takedown defense. Once taken down he looked lost though. On the feet he can hang, but doesn’t have big power. Good jab and good counters

I came into this fight thinking Kopylov and I came out of tape confident in Di Chirico. It’s the exact kind of opponent he has success against. Strikers with limited power. I like the over in this fight as well

John Makdessi vs Nasrat Haqparast

Another fight on the main card that I am not excited about from a betting perspective. Makdessi is getting up there in age, coming off a decent injury. He’s looked good in the cage though. While Nasrat is a guy that has just really failed to live up to the hype. I will never bet on Nasrat again, so i lean Makdessi, but I’ve never been a Makdessi guy either. Staying away

William Gomis vs Jarno Errens

This should be a DWCS fight, but this is actually a fight I really like. Gomis is extremely athletic. Throws flashy strikes that often times find their mark. He is willing to throw caution to the wind with his striking because he is confident in his takedowns and ground game. His athleticism allows him to get takedowns from weird positions. He’s very explosive and creative in the cage.

Errens is a dangerous power puncher. I actually favor Errens in the striking department. He has excellent feints. Sets up his punches well and they came straight down the pipe. He struggles at times with grapplers. This could be a problem for him here. He does have very good power and he’s pretty athletic as well

Errens is a dangerous fighter, but I think this is a good matchup for Gomis. Gomis should win this with his grappling. More than anything though I like this fight to finish ITD

Charles Jourdain vs Nathaniel Wood

Jourdain is still only 27 years old . “Hes an exciting fighter. He has slick submissions and power in his punches and kicks. He is a self proclaimed volume knockout artist. He likes to go to the calf, go to the body and watch your “power bar” drain out and then finish you. Hes a Canadian and he has been working with the same guy that got GSPs wrestling to where it is. He credits this for his win over Vannata. He’s a really smart dude and knows his wrestling will never be as good as guys who started when they were young, but he stated the knowledge he is gaining combined with his bjj is enough to set up the subs and get back to his feet. On the feet he is confident. He has some power in his hands and feet. When pressured he does tend to shell up. He shells up as he retreats and then picks a moment to plant his feet and fire back. He loves to throw the upper cut in this scenario.” That was part of my breakdown for him against Burgos and legit nothing has changed. He showed his toughness and just how good he is against Burgos in his last fight.

Nathaniel Wood made his 145 debut against Charles Rosa and he completely outclassed him. He’s lightning fast on the feet, has decent enough wrestling and is super confident in his skill set transferring to 145. The only guys Wood has struggled with have been guys faster than him. This should not be the case at 145.

Charles Jourdain is a warrior and a great striker who will punish you if your gas tank starts to waiver. Wood slowed a bit in the third round against Rosa, but I am not counting that against him. He beat the shit out of Rosa and if that was anyone else they wouldn’t have made it to the third. Wood is the more dedicated guy. He’s faster and more technical. Wood is a prospect I see going far. Small play on the slight dog

Abus Magomedov vs Dustin Stolzfus

This is some very interesting match making. Stolzfus finally gets a win in his last fight and won us a lot of money. He now gets Abus Magomedov on his UFC debut. Abus is a former PFL guy and made it to the championship fight 4 years ago. He was knocked out cold in that fight. Abus is a long and creative kick boxer with some decent wrestling and submissions. He’s Dagestany, but grew up in Germany. Stolzfus believes he is the better grappler and I have to agree. I also think Stolzfus is the stronger and tougher of the two. I’m not sold on what I’ve seen from Abus and on top of that he is not an active fighter. I like stolzfus and will be rolling with him as the dog here. Love the stuff he’s been saying in the lead up too.

Fares Ziam vs Michal Figlak

Ziam is somehow still only 25 years old and he just resigned with the UFC coming off a loss to Terrance McKinney. He’s tall for the division at 6’1 and has a 75 inch reach. He uses his jab well. Very technical striker. Spams the jab and uses it to keep range very well. Ziam is patient almost to a fault. He can let fights get away from him. He can be taken down and on the ground he is competent, but never in a rush to get back to his feet

Figlak is a guy who always moves forward. He has great pressure and has some decent power in his hands. Kid has good takedowns and once he has you down he does a great job controlling you. This is his UFC debut and a big step up in comp for him

Seeing a lot of love for Figlak and I get it. The kid is aggressive and a good athlete. But is he as good as Jamey Mullarkey? They have a similar game and Ziam beat (I actually thought Mullarkey should have got the nod) him. Ziam might give Figlak some problems on the feet and I don’t want to trust a debuting fighter against a guy who’s fought very legit competition in the UFC. A guy who’s fought the tougher comp and is still the younger man. Line might be right to take a shot on Ziam

Nassourdine Imavov vs Joaquin Buckley

Imavov might be my favorite play on the card. He trains with Ciryl Gane and he has just been on another level lately. Finished Heinisch and Shahbazyan. He should pick Buckley apart on the feet. Buckley has shown improvements lately and he is on a 3 fight winning streak of his own. Everyone knows he’s a freak athlete and hits super hard. He actually showed improved wrestling his last time out. I don’t think he’ll have much for Imavov though. Imavov inside the distance

Benoit St Denis vs Gabriel Miranda

Denis proved he is as tough as they come in his fight against Zeleski Dos Santos. He took that beating and just would not go away. He is former French special forces and his background is in judo. He fell in love with bjj and kickboxing and has had success in every element of mma. He definitely prefers to drag his opponents to the ground though. He’s a big strong guy and can bully opponents. On the feet he hits hard but is still green. I do think he will be the better stand up fighter in this matchup though.

Miranda is a good grappler and he will pull guard to get it there. Not the best on the feet, but competent enough where he can beat lower level guys.

This should be Denis all day long. Only chance Miranda has is a fluky submission. Don’t see it. Denis will get it done and find the finish

Khalid Taha vs Cristian Quinonez

Taha has had a tough go of things in the UFC. He came in and had some ufc jitters and lost to Nad Narimani, he then showed his potential by knocking out Boston Salmon within a minute. Since that win he beat Bruno Silva, but got it over turned due to steroid use. Then he lost his last two against Barcelos and Morozov. Taha is a power puncher and showed flashes against Barcelos, but largely got his ass kicked. He is durable. Very very hard to finish. After getting out wrestled by Morozov he worked with khabib and the gang for a bit. Kid is talented, but can’t seem to get it going

Quinonez is coming off the DWCS. He was a massive favorite in that fight and looked the part. He has very crisp striking and great footwork. Darts in and out with nice straight punches. He brings a Diaz brother esque fight style, taunting opponents after he hits them. Throws nice leg kicks. Long arms. He did get caught a few times against Long in his last fight.

Quinonez may give Taha some problems with his movement early, but I like Taha in this spot quite a bit. Quinonez has been finished before and Taha is a finisher. For as good as he looked in his last fight on DWCS he did get caught a few times and that was a way lower level opponent. Picking Taha ITD

Stephanie Eggar vs Ailin Perez

Eggar is a grinder. She loves to hip toss girls and get them to the ground. Perez is a grinder. She likes to drive her opponents against the cage, get them down and go to work. High variance fight. Perez didn’t look great on tape, but Eggar is no world beater. Line is definitely too wide. Dog play on Perez, but don’t mind avoiding this fight in general

Don’t love this card from a betting perspective. I’m sure you can see that in my write ups. Very few spots I actually like, but there are some spots I think we can exploit! Good luck this week guys!