UFC Vegas 54

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UFC Vegas 54

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic

“Jan has great boxing with HUGE one punch power and he has great wrestling to go with it. He is extremely strong and has been a great champion even though he never got the chance to fight Jon Jones. He is good everywhere and is mentally tough.” Is part of my breakdown for the Glover fight. Even though I was singing Jan’s praises, Glover was our official pick and we won huge. But I have to take another look at Jan. Is he mentally tough? Does he have good wrestling? It’s hard to say now after what Glover did to him. To me he did appear to quit. I have a feeling he was hurt, or sick because that was just not the Jan we came to know. He took an appropriate amount of time off after that fight, but is still dealing with injuries. This fight got delayed due to Jan having what he’s calling “temporary paralysis” after reading what actually happened “I wake up [on] one of the Mondays, and I feel a pain in my neck,” Blachowicz explained to MMA Fighting. “I think maybe I just slept bad, and that’s why I felt the pain. In the gym, we did some drills, and I took one shot on my guard, and I felt a really hard pain in my neck, and I cannot feel my left hand and left side of my body.

“It was completely off, paralyzed. Then I think, it’s not a normal pain. It’s something worse. I go to the doctor, we do an MRI and I have something [a disc] in my neck that puts pressure on the nerve. That’s why I had this feeling that I could not feel my left side.” He had a stinger. Not downplaying anyones pain, but this does make me question his toughness a little

Rakic is a technical beast. His only loss in the ufc is a split decision to Volkan and many believe he won that fight. He is very precise with his striking. Mixes things up very well. He’s long, moves well and is part of the new breed of mma fighter. Thing I like about rakic the most is his fight iq. Dude fights a smart gameplan and sticks to it. Makes good in game adjustments as well.

I have a feeling we are going to see a very sharp decline from Jan. Rakic wins this fight and I think he may actually find a late finish proving he should be next in line for the belt

Ryan Spann vs Ion Cutelaba

Spann was a HOT prospect when he came in. Thunderous power and athleticism. He is 6’5 and will have a 6 inch reach advantage in this fight. Spann has looked really good at times and terrible at times in his UFC career. He got beat easily by Anthony Smith, knocked out a chiny Cirkunov before the fight even got going, got knocked out by Johnny Walker and won a split decision over Sam Alvey in a fight I thought he lost.

Ion is a monster. He is pure aggression. He walks forward swinging wild hooks and if they don’t land he will take you down with a power bomb. Dude is insane. His losses in the ufc are only to the top of the top. His draw against Jacoby should have been a win for him as well

Spann is naturally talented, but he hasn’t shown me enough. I don’t think he will be able to deal with the wrestling of ion and they both have power on the feet. Ion wins and possibly finishes Spann

Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka

Davey Grant is 36 years old and is someone I have overlooked in the past. I did not expect him to beat Martinez, let alone knock him out. He’s someone who always has power throughout the fight. He’s tough as nails and went the distance with the dangerous marlon Vera in his last fight. He hung with Vera in round one. He’s a diverse striker, likes to rip to the body, mixes in kicks well. I liked how in the Vera fight, In the second round he was getting busted up on the feet, but was able to get a takedown and on the ground he looked real good. He’s super strong and looks for subs constantly. He fought tough as hell in his last fight as well and lost a very very close split to Adrian Yanez

Louis smolka is a fighter who never quite reached his potential or better yet, what people thought his potential was. He’s a tough Hawaiian fighter, can eat shots. He’s not the best striker, or takedown artist, but is super slick if the fight hits the mat. He’s an aggressive fighter and all his wins in the ufc are by finish. With that said he has no power whatsoever. He only has one knockdown in 10 ufc fights. He always had a great chin, but he was finished in his last fight. At 30 years old it’s hard to say he’s over the hill, but he has a lot of miles on him

Besides getting caught in a sub, I don’t see how Grant loses. Grant did lose to Manny Bermudez by sub in 2018, but he has looked so much better since then and his ring iq is too high to get caught against a one dimensional fighter. Grant by tko

Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas

Chookagian is a fighter who is a little frustrating to watch, but she only ever loses to the very top of the division. She is big for the weight class. She is constantly moving and is very active. She is vocal in the octagon, to the point of annoyance. She is a point fighter who loves to throw the jab from the outside and just continue to circle circle circle. She beat Jennifer Maia in her last fight and is starting to knock on the title shot door yet again. She did face some adversity in that fight. She got hit hard and cut in the second round, but won very very clearly

Ribas is 28 years old and is 11-2. She bounced back from a knockout loss to Marina Rodriguez, by beating Virna by UD. Ribas is someone the ufc really wants to do well and for good reason. She is pretty and has an extremely bubbly and outgoing personality. She’s a pretty good fighter too. Shes a great wrestler and on the ground she’s an ace but she has started to love her striking. She has wins over Dern, Carnelossi, pvz and Markos. She can get rocked and seems a bit chinny. She got dropped and hurt bad by Virna in the first round.

It pains me to say it, but I cant see Chookagian losing this fight. She stuffs the takedowns and out points Ribas on the feet all night long. Chook by Dec

Frank Camacho vs Manuel Torres

Camacho is a guy that has been around a long time, and if we are being honest I didn’t realize was still in the UFC. He has fought some very good competition, but he was also knocked out by a lot of that competition. He was knocked out in 40 seconds against Justin Jaynes, who has since lost his last 5 fights in a row. None of Camachos wins are over any notable names. He is a tough guy, has some decent hands and is very competent on the ground. Major chin issues at this point

Torres came into DWCS as a big time unknown. He was on a 2 fight winning streak, both by submission. He was extremely hard to find tape on and his 2 losses were against some bad comp. He fought on DWCS against a tough kid that you needed to kill to get out of there and he did just that. Torres won by tko in just over 2 minutes. He’s a young athletic fighter with a good build for the division.

Clear set up fight for Torres here. I still think Torres is a bit of an unknown and I don’t want to underestimate Camacho too much. Stay away for me though. Don’t mind the under. Fight probably finishes either way

Jake Hadley vs Allan Nascimento

Hadley is 25 years old and is 8-0. He missed weight for his DWCS fight so it’s something to monitor this week. He’s fought decent comp. fighting in Bellator and cage warriors. He has extremely fast hands and throws straight punches. One thing I loved to see is when he got rocked in his last fight he turned to his grappling and he has excellent takedowns and a strong ground game. The kid he fought on DWCS is no slouch and he was able to get the finish in round 2. Hadley is a legit prospect

Nascimento is 30 years old and is 18-6. He fought on DWCS a while back against Paiva and came up on the wrong end of a split decision. He took 3 years off after that fight. Had a bunch of canceled fights and came back and won by submission in the first round against a 5-4 fighter in a promotion no one’s heard of. This somehow got him into the ufc. I was not initially impressed. Then I saw why that one win got him a chance in the UFC. He is a tricky bastard to fight. He gave Tagir all sorts of fits in that fight. I remember watching that fight think that Allan was a guy I would be betting next time out.

Nascimento is pure violence and has some  of the best bjj and scrambles I’ve seen in a while. I think this kid is really good and Hadley is a bit unproven. Nascimento doesn’t mind working off his back and that can be a problem at times. Tagir may not be khabib, but he isn’t terrible either. Nascimento beats the still unproven prospect

Viviane Araujo vs Andrea Lee

Araujo is 35 years old and is 10-3. She lost her last fight by decision to Chookagian. Prior to that she beat roxy and Montana de la Rosa. She’s shown some power and submissions in her career. She is a good wrestler and got chook down and mounted in the second round. This will be her biggest advantage in this fight

Lee is an interesting fighter. She has fought very tough level comp in her career. She is very athletic. She hits hard and has great subs. Her take down defense has been questioned at times as she was wet blanketed by roxy. Lee states that she is better prepared now. She had some things going on in her life before that roxy fight and she feels like a different person. I believe her. She looked like a stud in her

fight against Antonina and she proved me right and tkod Calvillo. She can truly be a contender. 

Lee has the upside and momentum, but I am nervous about the wrestling of Araujo. Pick is Lee, but I may end up staying away

Michael Johnson vs Alan Patrick

Michael Johnson had so much potential he just never could quite beat the top of the division. All he’s fought is tough dudes his entire career. He has decent wrestling and he has really good hands. Speed and power. Throws nice combinations. At times he can look like a world beater.

Patrick is 38 and hasn’t looked good recently. He has some good wrestling, is a strong athletic dude, but that’s about it. Middle of the road fighter

This is a loser leaves town fight. Johnson is a better fighter than patrick and I’m picking him with some confidence

Virna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill

Virna is 17-3 with her only 2 losses coming to Dern, Esparza and Ribas all by decision. She was able to drop Ribas and looked good early in that fight. Has some gas tank concerns. She is very strong for the division and has excellent submissions. She is tough as nails hits hard and has ever improving striking. I had the pleasure of interviewing her on our podcast so I may be biased. She couldn’t be nicer and is someone you would want to have a beer with

Angela Hill is 13-11, but is much better than her record. She has fought everyone the ufc has to offer, she’s big and athletic for the division. She’s at her best when she is popping out her jab and on her bike. She has good output and is very rarely outclassed. She has become a bit of a gate keeper. Even though she has good size, she can be bullied

Hill can be bullied and Virna likes to bully. I think this is a decent matchup for her. Power and grappling advantage. Virna rolls and Hill gets bounced out of the ufc with a near 500 record

Tatsuro Tiara vs Carlos Candelario

Tatsuro is only 22 years old and is a really exciting prospect out of Japan. He’s a very high level grappler. A little awkward on his feet, but seems to have a good chin and some power of his own

Candelario was also an undefeated prospect at one time. A knee injury derailed his hype before it could even get started. He actually fought and won on dwcs back in 2017. He suffered a knee injury in that fight and proceeded to take 4 years off before returning in 2021. He won his return fight against Miguel restrepo by decision. Restrepo is a 5-5 fighter. 

Candelorio is a kid who loves to fight. He was undefeated in every combat sport he’s ever tried before his ufc debut. He’s got good hands and is well rounded.

Gotta go Candelario here. Can’t trust a 22 year old fighter who made his living in Japan. Candelario is very well rounded and I think he’s a little too much too soon for the prospect. Candelario by finish and if you are scared of the sub from Tats then take the under

Nick Maximov vs Andre Petroski

This is an excellent fight between two grapplers. Maximov has shown nothing but heart and grit in his career, while Petroski has shown athletic gifts, but has some quit in him. Maximov will find that quit and tap out Petroski late. With that said the line is a bit wide! I didn’t see this line coming at all. With this line Maximov is a no bet. Petroski is such a good athlete and has the wrestling and strength to hang with anyone it’s the cardio that is his issue