UFC Vegas 56

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UFC Vegas 56

Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Volkov 34-10. He’s coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall where he got dominated. He looked very slow in that fight. Prior to that he won against tybura and he really didn’t look great in that fight and before that he lost to the monster that is Ciryl Gane. At times he’s looked like a world beater. He is massive at 6 foot 7 and has an 80 inch reach. He has filled out his frame and is just a big dude. He has excellent striking, good footwork and he’s very accurate. The problem has been his speed and lack of head movement. He has shown good takedown defense in his career, but didn’t show it against blaydes or aspinall. When he beat overeem I legit thought he could contend for the title, but he did not look good agaisnt Aspinall at all. He was timid and just got beat in every aspect before getting finished in the first.

Jairzinho is a bit of a one trick pony. He has extreme power. Is an established kick boxer and can knock you out. He relies on that power and has extremely low volume. Only lost to Gane, Francis and Blaydes

This fight could get interesting if Volkov can get Jairzinho down, but I have no faith in his takedowns or ability to hold him down. On the feet jairzinho will have to deal with the length of volkov, but he only needs one to end the fight. Volkov will make a mistake at some point and go to sleep. Unfortunately I kinda think volkov is done

Dan Ige vs Movsar Evloev

Dan Ige was pretty close to a title fight in 2020. He was on a 6 fight winning streak and beat the likes of Betkic and Barboza. He then ran into Calvin Kattar and he really struggled with the striking of Kattar. He wasn’t completely outclassed though. Since then he’s 1-2. He had a quick knockout over Gavin tucker. Then lost to the Korean Zombie. The zombie has not looked himself lately and that loss is looking worse and worse. He lost to Josh Emmett in his last fight. That fight we saw Ige get rocked early, but was able to recover. He fights out xtreme couture and he really is a tough fight for most guys in the division.

Evloev has been in the UFC for five fights now and he has had 5 victories. Prior to the ufc he was 10-0 with 7 finishes. Since joining the UFC he is 5-0 with 0 finishes. He’s fought good competition in the UFC, not quite to the level of Ige, but good comp. He’s light on his feet. Good kick boxer, but lacks one punch ko power. His real strength is in his grappling. Excellent takedowns, is relentless in his pace. Good chain takedowns and he showed in his last fight that he can rely on his wrestling while being rocked. He is hitable.

Both Ige and Evloev are hitable. Ige has tremendous boxing and is a strong dude for the division. He uses his strength to repeatedly get back to his feet. He has some good takedowns of his own too. However, I do think he will struggle with Evloevs wrestling and pace. Ige can gas down the stretch and Evloev would take over. If I’m betting anything it would be Ige, because the line is too wide. I may just end up taking some props on this fight. I like it to go to decision and possibly even split decision

Mike Trizano vs Lucas Almeida

Trizano is 3-2 in the ufc with his two losses coming to Grant Dawson and Dawadu. The problem with Trizano is that I’m not sure he should have won any of his fights in the UFC. All razor close fights.  He likes to strike from range and utilize the jab from the outside. This is what cost him in the Dawadu fight. He just wasn’t as good as Dawadu from range and he didn’t try anything different until he shot for a takedown in round 3. The kid has skills, he just can’t seem to put everything together for a dominant performance. His cardio is his best weapon

Almeida is long for the division (same reach as Trizano)  and throws every single punch with bad intentions. He is sloppy but hits hard. Throws looping punches. Very very aggressive. Throws brutal leg kicks. He swings wildly at times leaving himself open to easy takedowns. Lost in a war on DWCS. After that he took one fight in jungle fight, won by first round sub and got signed by the ufc.

This is an interesting style clash. Almeida is going to force Trizano into a firefight. Trizano can win this fight with wrestling, but after seeing him stand with Dawadu for 15 min I have no faith he will go that route. Dog or pass for me. Trizano still hasn’t proven he’s worth a -235 favorite price tag

Karine Silva vs Poliana Botelho

Karine is your classic Brazilian fighter. She throws hard punches, and actually throws a really nice one 2 with a powerful right hand. She throws good kicks and can land with the straight kick up the middle. The best part of her game are her submissions. She dangerous off her back with arm bars, very flexible. Utilized the “crack head” defense in her last fight. She actually shot for a well timed and well executed takedown against yan. Yan was just so strong that she didn’t get it. It lands all day against Botelho. I do question her gas tank

Botelho is a striker. She throws heavy kicks to the body and has fast sharp hands. Throws in combinations. Likes to be the aggressor. She didn’t start training mma or any combat sport until she was 24. Natural athlete, but lacks that grappling base to back up her striking. She did show improved takedowns in her last fight, but did get reversed

I like Karine here. This may even be an easier fight than her DWCS opponent. If this fight ends up on the ground I see Karine getting it done, whether that’s from her back or on top. Karine by sub

Ode Osbourne vs Zarrukh Adashev

Ode is someone I’m liking more and more as we get closer to fight time. He’s tall, athletic, hits hard and has excellent subs. The sky is the limit for what Ode can do. Ode osbourne is a former teacher and he didn’t start training full time until after losing to manel Kape.

Zarrukh is 29 years old and has a pro record of 4-3. Don’t let his record fool you. He is a polished mma fighter. He was a kick boxer prior to his mma career and he was known for a crazy spinning high kick followed by a left hook knockout in glory. In his fight against Ryan Benoit he really utilized the leg kick and compromised Benoit early. He did get dropped in that fight but recovered well

Ode Osbourne is being a little forgotten on this card I think. Benoit was able to land on Zarrukh even with a compromised leg. Ode has a 7 inch reach advantage and has the power to put the lights out. I like ode here for the finish

Alonzo Menifield vs Askar Mozharov

Alonzo is 11-3 and is coming off a loss to William Knight. I thought Knight won that fight pretty clearly. He lost the first round, but then came out and won rounds 2, and 3. He has massive power. He finished 10 of his 11 opponents. His first decision win was his last fight against Ed Herman. Herman showed extreme toughness in that fight. Menifield was blasting him with shots and it was the leg kicks of Menifield that did the most damage. He is as strong as they come and uses strength to drag guys to the ground. Can be reversed.

Askar Mozharov is making his UFC debut. He’s 6’3 and is a big powerful dude for the division. He’s on a 4 fight winning streak (that includes his bare knuckle victory) with 4 first round finishes. He doesn’t look good to me even in those fast wins. Very sloppy. He does throw powerful leg kicks and very clearly has power in his hands. None of the guys he was beating were going out cold, and they were so low level they just didn’t know how to defend or deal with Askars aggression and forward pressure

Menifield is only a -160 favorite and he should win this fight easy. I haven’t seen the wrestling of askar, but based on his body mechanics I doubt he will be able to defend Menifields takedowns. Menifield by tko round 1

Felice Herrig vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Felice Herrig hasn’t fought in 2 years. She’s lost 3 in a row including a split decision loss to Kowalkiewicz back in 2018. That fight was very close and Herrig had Karolina hurt bad in the 3rd round. She’s a grinder type. Likes to throw down and then look for takedowns or force you against the cage. Has an only fans dedicated to her feet 👣

Karolina is a striker. She’s fallen on some hard times losing 7 of her last 9 fights, but she fought some high level comp. Like really high level. When she’s on she lands with high volume. She landed 126 strikes against Herrig in their last fight. She contemplated retirement after her last fight and has had some injuries she’s been dealing with as well.

Impossible to chose a side here. I like Karolina, but just a silly fight to risk money on

Joe Solecki vs Alex Da Silva

Solecki cost me money in his last fight. After he dominated Jim Miller, I had him pegged as a bet on fighter. I’m not sure if Jim Miller was dealing with injury in that fight or what, but I’m not sure that happens again after watching the Gordon fight. The fight started perfectly for Solecki and I thought we were in the clear. He landed an early takedown, controlled Gordon and took his back for the majority of the round. Round 2 started off good as well. He landed another takedown. But this time when Gordon got up things started to change. Gordon started getting the takedowns. Soleckis own takedown defense didn’t look all that good and he lost a grindy close fight. He is a beast of a grappler and does grappling matches in between fights. Grappled Gregory Rodriguez, who is a much bigger man to a draw. He also submitted Donald Cerrone in the first round of their grappling event

Alex Da Silva is coming back after a 2 year layoff. The kid is still only 26 years old. He’s coming off an amazing war with Brad Riddell where he fell just short. He proved in that fight that he is someone to take serious. He has excellent wrestling, he’s strong as hell and he can hang on the feet. I expect him to have a striking advantage in this fight. I also think he will have a pure strength advantage

Solecki is a great hammer. If he can take you down and get your back he’s a problem. His defensive grappling has holes and when pushed I think he breaks a little. Da Silva will push him. Da Silva is one of my favorite dog plays on the card

Damon Jackson vs Dan Argueta

Argueta is taking this fight on short notice and it is a very very tall task. Argueta is 8-0 professionally, but he does have a loss to ricky tercios on tuf. He’s coming off a split decision win agaisnt Diego silva. Damon Jackson DESTROYED Kamuela Kirk and his hype train in his last fight. He’s only ever lost to top comp and he’s really looking the best he ever has. Should be an easy night for Jackson

Niklas Stolze vs Benoit Saint Denis

Stolze is 0-2 in the UFC against decent comp in Emeev and Gooden. Gooden Knocked him out cold in one round and Emeev out wrestled him to a decision. He did nail Emeev with a knee up the middle and almost finished the fight. He’s a tall guy with good clean striking. Very technical. Has good tdd works his way back to the feet well. Struggles with really strong grapplers and power strikers

Saint Denis came into the UFC with a little hype and took a life changing beating from Elizeu zeleski dos santos. I still can’t believe that fight didn’t get stopped. Denis showed us nothing in that fight skill wise. He only started fighting 3 years ago and is 8-1 He is former French special forces and his background is in judo. He fell in love with bjj and kickboxing and has had success in every element of mma. From what I can see he prefers the fight on the ground. He’s a big strong guy and can bully opponents. On the feet he hits hard but is still green. 

Not sold on Saint Denis and I’m ready to fade him after that first performance. I’m not sure Stolze is ufc caliber though. Dog or pass

Johnny Munoz vs Tony Gravely

Munoz is a submission grappler. We called his last fight to a T. Goes for a lot of trip takedowns. Has a knack for getting on you back. Once there he has no problem finishing the fight. On the feet he leaves a lot to be desired. He got tagged against Simmons a few times, but was able to land takedowns off being rocked

Tony Gravely is someone who is being undervalued here. He’s a monster. His wrestling is second to none and he throws bombs on the feet with crisp boxing. He has been submitted in the past, but seems to have improved in top control. Gravely is a guy I am way higher on than most

Gravely uses better striking and better grappling to ultimately get a finish

Jeff Molina Vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Molina is a fighter that I have noted as a guy to bet on! He’s a monster. Throws a million strikes every fight, has good footwork. He trains under James Krause. Young guy constantly improving. He has shown heart. Not the best tdd but never accepts bottom always works to get up. Molina is a guy that is good everywhere and a legit prospect. 

Zhalgas is a very well rounded fighter who has been fighting tough competition for a very long time. He has good wins over Tyson Nam and Tagir Ulanbekov. He came into the ufc and lost his first two fights to Paiva and Albazi. He won his only ufc fight against Jerome Rivera with a first round standing guillotine. Zhalgas tends to be in very close fights that can go either way. Hes very fast, has good wrestling and good subs. He is the definition of a well rounded fighter. Kinda reminds me of a John Dodson type fighter. Manel Kape turned the lights out in his last fight.

This is a good test for Molina, but I think he shows that he is next level. I don’t think zhalgas will be able to hang with the pace and I really like Molina by tko

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs Andreas Michailidis

Both fighters are dropping to 170 for the first time. Michailidis has fought as high as 205. Rinat is a savage though and this is a set up fight all day long. Rinat by first round tko

Erin Blanchfield vs Jj Aldrich

This is another fight that I think is a set up. Blanchfield is soooo young and soooo good. She looked really impressive against Maverick and the ufc wants to give her another name in jj. Blanchfields wrestling is too much for just about anyone to deal with. Blanchfield by eventual sub