UFC Vegas 57 Tape Study Notes

Full Card Breakdown!

UFC Vegas 57

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot

Arman is a real problem for just about anyone in the division. He’s as strong as they come. He can knock you out on the feet and his grappling is second to none. He took down frevola 10 times. His one loss is to Islam so no shame there. I actually told myself that Arman is someone to watch after that Islam fight. He’s won his last two fights by ko. He’s only 25 years old and he looks to be in INCREDIBLE shape for this fight

Gamrot is a freak. He is super strong and can out wrestle just about anyone (the just about refers to his current opponent lol) He lost a split decision in his first ufc fight, but has since beaten Scott Holtzman by tko round 1, Jeremy stephens by first round sub. Who the fuck destroys stephens like that? No one. He most recently finished Diego Feireira In round 2. This kid is legit. The new age of fighter who is just incredible everywhere

I am really high in both of these guys and it will be a great fight. I am interested to see both fighters gas tanks if it gets past round 3. I do think Tsarukyan is the better fighter. I think he will edges him out slightly everywhere and he definitely hits the harder of the two. Taking Tsarukyan in this one

Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Magny is our guy. We have been winning money off magny since 2013. He’s super long and lanky. Can give guys fits on the feet with his range. He has an 80 inch reach. He puts on an insane pace. He’s really good and strong in the clinch. Brings those long legs up and can knee you with ease. Susceptible to the takedown, but has a good ground game. Good sweeps. Gets up easily unless against a top tier wrestler such as Chiesa. Tough as they come. Was really trying to get that khamzat fight when no one else wanted it and now he has a fight with another tough prospect that no one wanted. He is saying he’s going to put it on Shavkat and really hit him hard. Love the quotes from magny  “I know he’s a good submission artist. I know he has knockout power,” he added. “I know he does all these things well, but is he willing to put out the amount of effort it’s going to take to survive the kind of pace I’m going to put on him? That’s what I’m excited to find out.” “I have to make sure there is power with most shots that I throw, and not just relying on being there for the distance and the cardio. I need to make sure I’m hitting him with some pretty heavy shots so it’s, ‘this isn’t what I saw in the video; where did this come from?’”

Shavkat is a scary cat. Dude has incredible striking and good grappling to go with it. They threw him in the cage with 2 legit ufc vets and he had his way with both of them. Winning by sub in both fights. Kid can do it all and is a legit prospect at 170. He fought another prospect in his last fight and knocked him out in the first round. He’s confident coming into this fight. Saying that he’s going to show magny that he’s a future title holder. He throws great combos, has really good timing with his knees

I want to pick Magny so badly here, but I just can’t do it. He’s too hitable and Shavkat hits too hard. I do think it will be interesting to see how Shavkat deals with the length of magny. He’s used to being the longer fighter. Magny is a good test for anyone. If Shavkat rolls through magny he is on his way to the top of the division. Stay away fight for me based on the line

Josh Parisian vs Alan Boudot

Josh Parisian is a lower level heavyweight. He’s a striker. Can throw with volume, has decent footwork and speed for the division. Says he’s been working on sitting down on his punches and delivering power. He’s 1-2 since entering the ufc and I really don’t like his comments after his last fight. He said he was a broken man going into that fight. Said mentally he lost before even entering the cage. He has a very long Instagram post talking about his mental state, how he didn’t expect to grapple and that’s why he gassed out and cutting his heal in the hot tub. All sound like excuses and trying to justify his loss

Alan Boudot is a striker. He hasn’t had any success in the ufc as far as wins, but he has shown some flashes in there. He’s athletic for the division and has been filling out his frame recently. Unlike Parisian I do like how Alan is talking. He wants his first ufc win bad

This is a loser leaves town fight. It is a low level heavyweight fight so bet at your own risk, but I really like Boudot here. He hits harder of the two, is more athletic and they both will be looking to stand and trade. Boudot takes it

Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos

Moises is a guy that I have underestimated at times. Prior to his loss to Joel Alvarez, His only losses in the ufc were to damir Ismagulov, dariush and Islam. He’s beaten some great fighters like Bobby Green and Anthony Hernandez. He can do everything. Has decent striking, good takedowns and a good ground game. He has excellent defense and tends to turn fights into his style and pace. He got wrecked by Joel. I can’t seem to ever get Thiago right.

Giagos is another fighter with only high profile losses. He is a wrestler. Excellent takedowns. He’s extremely aggressive and will blitz in with wreckless combos at times to go for a takedown. Athletic and very strong

I’m going back to my fade Thiago ways. I think giagos is able to bully him. After his last performance I think Thiago might be done. Giagos gets a late finish

Nathan Maness vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Maness is on a 4 fight winning streak with his most recent win coming over Tony Gravely by second round tko. He was getting beat bad by Gravely in that fight and was able to some how survive round 1. Gravely was gassed out and Maness has a serious killer instinct and finished the fight. Maness vs sanders was an incredible fight as well. Both fighters got rocked and maness came out on top and looked good! He’s a dangerous fighter on the feet and the ground. Extremely tough and is relishing in being a big underdog in this fight. Good cardio

Umar is khabibs cousin and it shows. He’s only 26 years old, 14-0 and got 5 takedowns in his ufc debut. Everyone likes to say that umar is a great striker, which he absolutely is, but he is also a smart fighter and knows he has the wrestling to beat guys and will do it. This is straight from Javier Mendez “"I mean Khabib's boxing has gotten pretty good. Umar's kicking is phenomenal. So you can expect to see more kicking [from him]. He's a phenomenal kicker.” He's great on the ground, he's got good boxing, but he's a phenomenal kicker.

"So that's one of the things you'll notice a difference in between him and Khabib. Umar can kick." He is a great striker, but lacks power. He has 0 wins by tko. 7 wins by decision and 6 wins by sub. He demolished Brian Kelleher. Kid seems to be very legit. I like what I’m hearing from him this week too. He said he feels ready to fight the top of the division and he’s ready to make his “push”, but he followed that up with saying he has a tough test in front of him and he’s not looking past Maness.

Maness is good, but he is too hitable. He’s been rocked in a bunch of his fights, but has been able to survive. Umar is a smart fighter and when he has you hurt he takes you down and submits you. Umar doesn’t have much power and maness is tough as hell. Umar by dec

Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Vieira

Chris Curtis has come into the UFC and showed everyone why he’s called the action man. He’s been around the sport forever. He has excellent striking, big power, good tdd and good grappling. He’s a true martial artist. Very well rounded. He’s facing a specialist in Vieira and when asked about testing his grappling against him, Curtis said “F*ck no,”. “There’s no way. People were like, ‘Oh, you think you can grapple him?’ Like, no. His nickname is the black belt, like why would I even? Like, why would that ever be a part of the gameplan?” LOVE to hear that. He trains with Khamzat so I’m sure he’s been working hard to keep the fight standing.

Vieira is a monster. He is jacked out of his mind and is one of the best bjj guys the ufc has to offer. He is known in the grappling world as the black belt killer. His loss to Anthony Hernandez was a slip on a banana peel. He showed improved striking in his last fight against stolzfus. Questionable cardio

If Vieira gets this to the ground curtis is in trouble, but Curtis has got some tricks up his sleeve. He’s been fighting forever and I think he’ll be able to get back to his feet. On the feet it’s all action man. I think action man knocks out the one dimensional Vieira

Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi

Ulberg came into the ufc as a hot prospect out of city kickboxing. He has drastically under performed in the UFC. He throws a ton of volume, but does not move his head at all. Got kod badly by Kennedy Nzechukwu. In his second ufc fight he got dropped by Fabio Cherant in a fight that saw Fabio be super tentative. Ulberg throws good combos and has a nice calf kick. Landed a takedown against Cherant, but his ground game is largely unknown

Tafon made a successful 205 debut against Mike Slow Rodriguez and won us a bunch of money in doing so. He has good power, but can really throw volume. He has landed over 115 strikes twice in his ufc career. He also landed 3 takedowns against Mike Rodriguez. Would be interesting to see that against Ulberg. He’s a good fighter, but struggles when guys are faster than him. Park really exploited him a bit. Mike Rodriguez was a good win, but it was such a perfect matchup. The guys nickname is literally slow. Tafon was controlling the fight against Azamat with his size and activity. Azamat came out in the third and that explosion I was talking about showed! He hit Tafon with an amazing walk off flying knee. Tafon would have won that fight if not for the finish

This is a really close fight, but if Ulberg doesn’t finish Tafon early he is in trouble. Tafon is coming back a bit fast from that ko, but Ulberg doesn’t have near the power of Azamat. I think Tafon tires Ulberg out with volume and wrestling and might get a late finish

Sha Yilan vs TJ Brown

Shayilan is 27 and is 19-7. Lost his ufc debut to Joshua culibao. Was able to get 2 takedowns. Looks for the one big shot. Uses wrestling in all his fights. He is hitable, but has shown a good chin. Strong and big for the division. The loss to Culibao is starting to not look so bad either. He beat Soriano in his last fight landing 4 takedowns and 2 reversals in that fight

Tj Brown is also a wrestler. He is able to chain takedowns and he landed 6 in his last fight to Charles Rosa. Brown looked really good in that fight, but Rosa was coming in on short notice. Brown is hitable and can be chinny at times. Does his best work mixing in takedowns constantly

Whoever gets the better of the wrestling should win this fight. I have a feeling that’s going to be Brown. I like the over in this fight as well

Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov

Paiva is moving back up to bantam weight to fight morozov. I can’t help but agree with legit all of the internet that this is a mistake. Paiva is far too hitable to get away with what he tried to get away with at flyweight. We saw how it worked out for him against Suga sean. Paiva is tough and likes to pressure his opponents, but this is a bad matchup for him. Morozov has really good boxing, hits hard and will have the grappling edge. Morozov tkos Paiva

JP Buys vs Cody Durden

Jp Buys is a frustrating fighter. He seemingly has the tools to be successful. He’s athletic, strong and has excellent wrestling. He also has a bad chin and hasn’t really shown the best of himself in the cage. He showed glimpses against Jackson. He got a takedown early, transitioned to mount and then almost got the choke. after that exchange he got dominated the rest of the fight

Durden is a little under sized for the division, but his strength has held up. He got dominated in his last fight, but I’m not counting that against him too much. Mokaev is a future champ. Durden has good wrestling and his striking has come a long way. Decent power. He trains at American top team and recently put in some rounds with thug nasty. Perfect training partner for this matchup

I’m seeing everyone taking Buys and I just can’t do it. I like Durden to win a close decision and the JP Buys era is over in the ufc

Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista

I’ve always been a Kelleher guy, but I’ve also always liked Bautista. Bautista was Jeff Molina before Jeff Molina. Kelleher is getting old, he’s hitable, his gas tank is questionable. He does hit hard and has a great guillotine. Bautista has a 6 inch reach advantage and should put volume Kelleher. Bautista by Dec

Venessa Demopoulos vs Jinh Yu Frey

Frey is the stronger fighter, crisper striking and should be able to dominate this fight. However this is a low level womens fight and Demopoulos is dangerous. She is fully capable of armbar from guard and Frey has looked far from dominant in the ufc. No way am I paying that price tag on Frey