UFC Vegas 59 Tape Study Notes

Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 59

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill

Santos is a guy we know very well. He’s been in the ufc since 2013. He’s 1-4 in his last 5 fights. With his one win being over Johnny Walker. His 4 losses are to very tough competition though. He lost to Jon Jones (which was extremely close and Santos fought on one leg), Glover by sub, Rakic by decision and most recently Ankalaev by Dec. Prior to this he was on a 4 fight winning streak with a win over Jan. He’s extremely strong and hits like a hammer wink wink. His cardio tends to hold up okay, but he does not push a fast pace. He like to explode with power and then conserve a bit of energy and reload. He is 38 years old and has began to slow a bit. Still always dangerous

At 31 years old Hill is right on the cusp of a title shot. He’s won 2 in a row, both were first round stoppages. His only loss ever was a fight in which he was kicking the shit out of Paul Craig, followed him down and got submitted. He was over confident there, but he learned a lot and we learned a lot from watching that fight. Hills arm was broke and this dude did not stop fighting. He even said afterwards that he was trying to finish the fight with one arm. He is technically sound on the feet with very fast hands and he has the power to put you away. Besides Ankalaev he might be the best the ufc has to offer at 205

Clear set up fight for Hill. Love him to win this fight. I would be cautious with the under and with the tko prop. Santos has been fighting very safe lately. Hill as a parlay piece and I probably will end up on the tko prop, but be careful

Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal

Luque is a beast. Vicente is a striker and he likes to go out and bang. His last loss was to Belal Muhammad who was able to use a great gameplan to stay safe and get the win. Luque has been honest with himself and before that Belal fight spoke about training with the champ Usman “At least 40, 30 sparring rounds. At least, [maybe] even more than that. I can honestly say that most of the time I got my ass beat. Just because he has always been really good in every discipline. I would say I’m a little bit better in striking but right now you see he’s striking with the best, he knocked out [Jorge] Masvidal. Overall, I think that I was a little behind him, and I was picking up and learning a lot from him. that wrestling, that scramble. I would say that most of the time I got my assed whooped, but it’s part of learning and it’s really important for me to get to the level I’m at right now.” I actually like the honesty and agree that this is how you get better. Luque is known as a brawler, but he’s better than that and he proved that against Chiesa. Vicente says he learned alot from the Muhammad fight and can’t wait to go out and show he will have an answer if an opponent tries a similar game plan

Neal is a guy a bunch of analysts, including me, were very high on. He has good boxing and huge power. He lost his “contender” status when he fought Neil Magny. Prior to that he lost to Wonder boy, but I gave him a pass. Magny made him look straight up bad. He won a very close fight last time out against Ponzinibio. That was an excellent fight and a good test for Neal. Neal showed that maybe he does belong at the top of this division. He trains at fortis and says that him and Alex Morono put in a ton of work together and have really been going at it. Have to think them having fights so close together and peaking around the same time is a major positive. Neal did get arrested for a dui and a weapons charge prior to his last fight. I couldn’t find much of an update on that which makes me think it wasn’t a big deal. Neal said as much during his press conferences last time out, but you never know

Luque has all the advantages here. If they get in a brawl I have Luque, if they stay standing I have Luque, if it hits the ground I have Luque. Love the line at -175

Mohammed Usman vs Zac Pauga

Muhammed the brother of welterweight champ Kamaru, has had quite a different path than his brother. Mohammed initially found success with football. He had a scholarship to Houston, he played one season there, transferred to junior college and then finished his career at Arizona. After college he had a kid and his athletic career was in pause. After seeing the success of his brother he decided he wanted to fight as well. He does not have the skill of his brother, but he is athletic, hits very hard and has the advantage of the best coaches in the world because of his brother. He struggled in his last fight, but showed a willingness to keep coming forward and showed a great chin

Zac Pauga is a guy I talked about a lot in my Curtis Blaydes breakdown. He is one of Blaydes main training partners and you have to think that’s making him better everyday. Pauga also played football and was very good. He played all 4 years at Colorado state as tight end. He then went on to try out for the Texans as a RB. He also played professional rugby. Very athletic guy. It’s very hard and has good hands. Looked excellent on TUF

This is Pauga’s fight all day. He will be able to piece up Usman and should end up finishing him even though Usman is a tough dude. Pauga wins relatively easy

Brogan Walker vs Juliana Miller

Honestly this is a low level fight. I have no interest in betting it at all. Brogan has a lot more experience and that experience carried her through the show. She is slow and will be at an athletic disadvantage to Miller. Miller looked excellent on the show and is very tricky on the ground. I see Juliana winning the fight, but will not be betting this

Augusto Sakai vs Sergey Spivak

Sakai is a big heavyweight. He’s 6’4 has a 77 inch reach and has a massive frame. He carries his weight well and throws some of the best volume in the heavyweight division. He’s capable of fighting 5 rounds. Even though he does have some first round knockouts (he is a heavyweight after all) I wouldn’t necessarily say he has great one punch knockout power. It’s punches in bunches and pressure that gets Sakai the finish. Hes starting to look like a bust prospect. He’s lost his last 3 fights against jairzinho, overeem and Tui. He was finished in all of those fights. Seemed hesitant in his fight with jairzinho and then he just got bullied by Tuivasa. He trains at American top team with some decent heavyweights. He has been putting in some work with  Klidson abreau who has been surging lately

Spivak is also massive. He’s 6,3 and will have a 1 inch reach advantage. Spivak is still only 27 years old and he’s shown some real promise in the heavyweight division. He’s a massive man and looks to grapple and grapple often. He has nasty ground and pound and real good submissions. He moved from xtreme couture to polar bear team, but has no lack of good heavyweight sparring partners. Looking at his social it looks like he is really dedicated to improving after that loss to aspinall. His wins aren’t over the greatest comp, but he does what you are supposed to do with bad comp. He finishes them.

Spivak is a decent sized favorite and I see why. This is a great matchup for him. Sakai lacks the athleticism to stay on the feet. Spivak will take him down and on the ground Spivak is a monster. Sakai gets finished for a 4th time in a row and gets bounced from the ufc

Ariane Lipski vs Priscilla Cachoeira

Lipski has struggled in the ufc. She’s a great standup fighter but she has a very hard time keeping it standing. Everyone seems to be able to take her down at will. After her loss to Montana de la Rosa she switched gyms and now trains at ATT. This switch has really made a difference. She looked great against Bohm, scoring two knockdowns in that fight. Looking at her social she seems to have thickened up a bit. She’s been putting in the work on her strength and conditioning. Looks excellent.

Cachoeira is a pressure fighter. She constantly walks forward, she has power in her hands and she never stops coming. She’s also extremely hitable. She only completed one takedown in her entire career and she most definitely lost her last fight even though it shows a win on her record.

Finally a good matchup for lipski. Lipski’s hands are too crisp and she hits too hard to lose to Cachoeira. I see a finish over the very durable zombie girl

Sam Alvey vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

Sam Alvey has zero wins in his last 8 fights. He’s 0-7-1. He has fought very good competition and for the most part has not looked all that bad. His worst performance was his last fight against Brendan Allen. He got rocked, slammed and submitted in that fight. We haven’t seen many people do that go Alvey. Alvey is a frustrating fighter, because when he is being offensive he looks really good. He has good hands and great power. Has some of the best takedown defense in the game and he is just genuinely a very strong dude. He can be hitable and he is very hesitant to get is offense going. He likes to counter strike, but he is way too patient.

Michal has power in his hands and can hang with just about anyone on the feet. He is fast and athletic. The way to beat Michal is take him down and submit him. Crute and OSP both beat him this way. Michal lost a very close fight to Dustin Jacoby. This one really could have went either way. Michal had success on the feet and rocked Jacoby a couple times. Jacoby claims he was hurt going into that fight and maybe so. Michal has decided to drop to 185 after this fight and honestly he still looks like he’s going to be small for 185. He does look to be in excellent shape though

Michal a -600 favorite, changing weight classes and fighting a guy that has the skill, but doesn’t always show it. No thanks. Dog or pass here

Terrance McKinney vs Erick Gonzalez

This line is way out of control, but Erick Gonzalez is about to get T wrecked. McKinney has so much power in his hands and if he wants to just take Gonzalez down and beat him up he can. That’s actually most likely what he will do. Gonzalez is not as tough as Dober. McKinney round 1

Bryan Battle vs Takashi Sato

Battle is a grinder. He’s pretty good everywhere. He’s not the most imposing guy, but he will be big dropping down to 170. Guys got heart and can put up a pace. He will dictate the fight if you let him. He’s long and awkward in the cage. He never accepts bottom position even against excellent wrestlers. He wants to be the best in the world and feels he can do that at 170. He did a test weight cut to 170 prior to his last fight, which is absolutely insane. He says he doesn’t half ass weight cuts at all because he wants to feel his best. Makes sense haha

Sato hasn’t had much ufc success. He is a power puncher who waits for the kill shot. Very low volume. Can be out paced

Great ufc matchmaking here for battles first fight at 170. Battle is a horrible matchup for Sato. Don’t see Battle getting finished. He out works Sato for a possible late finish of his own

Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan

SET UP FIGHT. Witt has absolutely no chin and Quinlan throws bombs. However there are a couple of red flags going in. Quinlan is coming off a suspension for steroids. He admitted to doing them and says he learned from a bad decision. This makes me question Quinlans confidence in himself. Does he think he can’t hang unless he has the special stuff? This is especially concerning with this matchup. Witt may have no chin, but he is big and strong and can wrestle his ass off. If Quinlan ends up on his back and feels the strength of Witt, these doubts may creep into Quinlans head. Heavily thinking of taking Witt, even with the UFC thinking this is a good matchup for Quinlan

Cory McKenna vs Miranda Granger

This seems like a very winnable fight for McKenna. I thought she won her last fight, but it was very very close. Mckenna should have the wrestling edge and I think she will be the aggressor. She does have a 10 inch reach disadvantage. This is the exact type of fight I’ve been saying I’m going to start avoiding and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Stay away

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Stephanie Egger

Egger is a fighter I like. She’s a grinder and has been finishing girls. We’ve won good money betting on her. Silva is a finisher herself with good submissions and above average power for the division. This is another fight that in the past I probably would have pulled the trigger on Egger. This also fits the bill of fights I told myself to avoid. We are going to avoid it. Staying away