UFC Vegas 61

Tape Study Notes

UFC Vegas 61

Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan

Dern is a jujitsu specialist and is one of the most dangerous ground fighters in any division. What she did to Nina Nunes was truly impressive. She throws bombs on the feet and is tough as nails, but everyone knows she wants the fight on the ground. Her stand up is improving. She showed against Marina and Tecia that if she can get you down she is a threat to finish the fight. She had Marina in all sorts of trouble and she just genuinely always feels live for the finish. Super athlete.

Yan is a beast. She fights out of team alpha male and has beaten some real high level comp. she’s athletic, fast, always comes forward and she’s tough as nails. Likes to make it a fight. She can utilize takedowns when she has to and landed 5 against karolina. She is a power striker and truly likes to brawl. She throws a beautifully, quick teep kick to the face. No set up at all. Big for the division. She is hitable

Both of these girls are as tough as they come. I see a war coming. I’m not willing to bet Dern at -225, but I do think she will win. I’m just going to be a spectator for the main event

Randy Brown vs Fransisco Trinaldo

This is an easy fight to breakdown. We have been all over Trinaldo lately and he has really paid off. Even in his advanced age he is still able to beat lower level comp. If he has a wrestling advantage he will exploit it. This is just a horrible matchup for him. Brown is younger, more athletic, hits very hard and holds an 8 inch reach advantage. Trinaldo will swing hard early and possibly give you a scare, then he will show his age and get finished

Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones

Barcelos is a grappler. He is 5-1 in his ufc career with some really impressive wins, including a win over Said. He lost his last fight to timur valiev, but he looked good in doing so. He knocked down timur twice in the second round. He has great submissions, has been training bjj since he was 5. He’s fast and hits hard. He has been slowing down a bit though and took some major damage against Henry in his last fight. He has a questionable gas tank as well.

Trevin Jones is on a 2 fight skid, but against very good competition. He’s extremely durable and wants to end the fight at all times. He did the majority of his training camp in Thailand and I like to hear that he’s changing things up a bit. Listened to a few interviews of him in the lead up and he’s saying he’s coming forward. He knows he does the most damage coming forward and can put anyone away. He’s a bjj black belt, but will be at a wrestling disadvantage here

I think this is a good matchup for jones. Raoni is aggressive, making him vulnerable to jones counters. Raoni is starting to show his age, but has still been durable. That ends here. Jones finishes Raoni. The jones sub line will be interesting. He’s talking a bunch about showing the power and making Raoni take a bad shot and that he will choke him out. I think that’s very live

Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis

Shainis isn’t bad and has some power, but knocking out Cody Pfister and Jay Ellis are very different from fighting Yusuff. Yusuff should win easy, but -900 is not even worth betting

John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos

Castaneda came into the ufc against a much bigger opponent in wood and fought a commendable fight. He followed that up with a huge knockout win over Eddie wineland. Castaneda is a guy who can put a pace on you and is a really well rounded fighter. He choked out Miles Johns in his last fight and everyone should stop what they are doing and watch the interview where Castaneda breaks that fight down. He is very intelligent and it just really shows how much he’s putting into these gameplans. Great cardio. He showed me a lot in his last fight

Santos had a tall task in his UFC debut with Arce. That fight aside…. He’s a finisher. Trains at chute box with The Lima brothers. He has technical striking. Throws straight punches, but he does love throwing spinning techniques as well. Everything he throws is with bad intentions. This was to his detriment against Arce. Arce was able to avoid the power and land hard counters. His tdd is not good, but he is comfortable with his bjj off his back.

Santos is always dangerous, but Castaneda is the better fighter. Castaneda avoids the power and gets another 3rd round finish

Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Huge stay away fight for me. Mike Davis has a clear path to victory with wrestling. Borshchevs takedown defense is bad and I don’t think he had enough time to make big enough strides to shore it up. BUT every fight starts on the feet and Davis likes to strike. Anytime it’s on the feet Borsh is live for a finish. ANYTIME! Stay away for me for that reason

Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik

Latifi probably shouldn’t be a heavyweight, but he’s held his own against two men bigger than Oleinik so far. Latifi is a wrestler and is as jacked as humanly possible for his frame. He was able to take down Derrick Lewis 3 times and went to decision with the beast. He took down tanner Boser twice and got his first win at heavyweight. He’s only ever lost to top competition at heavyweight or light heavyweight and he’s never been submitted. He’s a safe fighter. Controlling wrestler. On the feet he looks for counters and does have some power in his hands

Oleinik is 45 years old and was on a 3 fight losing streak before beating Jared Vanderaa in possibly the lowest iq fight I’ve ever seen (on Vanderaas end). He was knocked out by Derrick Lewis and by Chris Daukaus and then he got dominated by Spivak in a wrestling match. He has power in his hands and tricky submissions. Has one of the strongest squeezes in the game. At 45 years old I do not like the quotes I am seeing from Oleinik at all. Yes he still trains at a good gym and he claims in the practice room he still competes. I’m sure he does. But practice and a fight are two very different things. Look at some of the concerning quotes I’m talking about “This is not easy to be ready, to be training for more than 20 years, but this has been my life for the last 24-and-a-half years.” “Maybe I’m not the best, but I’m one of the not bad guys” “The most important is how I feel, and right now I feel a little tired, but I still have gas in my tank.” Sounds like a guy on his way out. A guy that is tired after 75 pro fights

The Spivak fight is the blue print for Ilir. Take him down. Mind your ps and Qs. And beat up Oleinik for 3 rounds. Ilir does have some power though and he did land some counter shots on Boser. I wouldn’t be shocked if those shots, that did nothing against Boser, really hurt Oleinik. Taking Ilir and looking at the ko prop as well

Jessica Penne vs Tabitha Ricci

Penne is a crafty veteran and at 39 years old she is still a good fighter. She trains with Angela Hill and they make each other better. Has good grappling and submissions and is just genuinely tough

Ricci is 7-1 but she is a life long martial artist. She is wild on the feet. Charges in with wreck less abandon. She likes to get in close force it against the cage and it’s when the fight hits the ground that she has a bunch of success. She moves very well on the ground staying heavy on top. She struggled a bit against Polyana and that scares me. She trains with Dern

I lean Ricci, but this is another stay away for me. Fight goes to Dec seems like a safe bet though

Joaquim Silva vs Jesse Ronson

Silva is absolutely jacked and he goes out there trying to take your head off. He is a bjj black belt and the confidence he has on the ground allows him to let his hands go. He got knocked out in his last fight and we will see if that changes his approach at all. I doubt it does though.

Ronson is a lot better than the results he’s been getting. He’s another guy that has big power and wrestling ability. This should be a very fun fight to watch

I think Ronson is the better fighter of the two, but one thing I know is someone is going down. I’ll take Ronson, but this is a scary one

Krzysztof Jotko vs Brendan Allen

Jotko has been in the ufc since 2013. He’s fought high level opponents and is a very meat and potatoes fighter. He’s 5-1 in his last 6 with his one loss coming to Sean Strickland by Dec. He won me some money by beating Meerschaert in his last fight. Good everywhere, but prefers to strike

Allen has great grappling (once it’s on the ground) and has heavy hands. He’s also very big, has a good frame for the weight class. He now trains out in Singapore with Andre Fialho, Greg Rodriguez and a really good camp. It’s also rumored guys go out there to get on the juice. The move to Singapore shows his dedication and it showed in his last fight against Malkoun. Malkoun is a tough fight for anyone and that fight was very very close. Judging today values damage over position so I think they got it right, but man it was close.

Allen is the dog here and I can see why. Jotko has looked like the better fighter over their past 3 fights. Allen has been facing the better comp (not including alvey) and I think that will show here. I think Allen hits harder and will be able to reverse positions in scrambles with jotko. Taking the dog shot

Maxim Grishin vs Philipe Lins

Neither one of these guys are great, but I think Lins is pretty terrible. Grishin has power and is more at home at 205. I was betting on Prachnio to knockout Lins and I will do the same with Grishin. Grishin by tko

Julija Stoliarenko vs Chelsea Chandler

It’s going to be a no for me dog

Guido Cannetti vs Randy Costa

I’ve been first team all Cannetti for his last 2 fights and he didn’t disappoint (even in his loss to Mana. He showed up). But he is 42 and is fighting a killer in Costa. Yes, I know Costa has never won a fight past round 1, but Cannetti is not the guy to exploit that hole. Costa by tko is the play