UFC Vegas 61 DraftKings Strategy
Projected ownership
Full disclosure I’m going very hard in the 18 dollar 100k contest this week. For that reason I decided to up my DraftKings game. I usually go by feel and touch, but this week I decided to bring some math into the equation. Could help, could hurt. Who knows. Anyways, I’m not very good at ownership projections, but the percentages will still give you an idea of how I feel on a fighter vs how the field does.
Rank by most point potential - Ownership percentage - prediction vs my ownership
Randy Costa 9200 55% - Kyle 60% - high first round finish projection. Good knockdown rate
Randy Brown 9300 50% - Kyle 60% - high finish projection. Fighting an aging fighter
Ilir Latifi 8700 30% - Kyle 60% - I am higher on Latifi than most. I see him smashing here
Mike Davis 8600 40% - Kyle 35% - route to victory is wrestling heavy. This scores dk points
Sodiq Yusuff 9500 38% - Kyle 14% - big mismatch. Should finish. Don’t know if he pays off his price tag
John Castaneda 8800 34% - Kyle 30% - constant pressure. Always looks for the finish. Good matchup for violence both ways
Jesse Ronson 7800 40% - Kyle 55% - finisher with a price tag that makes him valuable. Hopefully people just look at his record and avoid him.
Brendan Allen 7900 30% - Kyle 55% - I’m higher on Allen than most. Kid hits hard and scrambles well. I can see a sneaky finish over an opponent people like
Tabatha Ricci 8900 20% - Kyle 10% - wrestling heavy path to victory
Trevin Jones 7200 33% - Kyle 65% - finisher! Way too cheap
Daniel Santos 7400 20% - Kyle 25% goes for broke to get the finish. His path of victory could win you a tournament at 7400
Maxim Grishin 8500 28% - Kyle 10% this might be a stinker of a fight. Could win by ko
Chelsea Chandler 8000 18 % - Kyle 13% - wrestling and striking advantage. Has power for womens division
Philipe Lins 7700 30% - Kyle 22% - at this price tag I like him more than Grishin. Low output, but Grishin can be finished. Fast hands
Raoni Barcelos 9000 37% - Kyle 3% - price tag too high. Think he loses. If he wins it will burn me
Krzysztof Jotko 8300 38% - Kyle 6% I’m on Allen big. Jotko could surprise and look amazing so I didn’t want 0 percent
Viacheslav Borshchev 7600 27% - Kyle 22% - will probably get Wrestle Fucked, but if he doesn’t he can win by ko
Julija Stoliarenko 8200 20% - Kyle 3% - always a submission threat
Joaquim Silva 8400 22% - Kyle 3% - bad chin, but he could have learned his lesson. Lots to prove. Don’t like the price tag
Mackenzie Dern 9100 40% - Kyle 3% - doesn’t ever score well. Always a submission threat. Price tag too high
Aleksei Oleinik 7500 33% - Kyle 15% - he’s old, but can still submit anyone
Yan Xiaonan 7100 16% - Kyle 6% - womens mma. She can win. Price is right to own some
Guido Cannetti 7000 20% - Kyle 0 - might have a good first round, but I see him getting demolished. If he wins he will be on the optimal
Francisco Trinaldo 6900 22% - Kyle 0 - old man vs the young buck. Doesn’t score well in wins
Jessica Penne 7300 28% - Kyle 6% - her path to victory doesn’t score highly. She can win though
Don Shainis 6700 12% - Kyle 0 - no path to victory