UFC Vegas 62 Betting Card + Tape Study Notes

Props + Parlays

UFC Vegas 62

Changing up the betting style a bit this week. We have been having good reads, but I think I’m just spreading myself to thin on cards. Have to stick with my convictions. Let’s win some money

Betting Card

Jacob Malkoun +105  Bet 1 unit to win 1.05 *I initially had a bigger wager placed, but bet myself out of it after I saw the size difference. Only want the one unit play now

Mana Martinez ITD +180 Bet 5 units to win 9

Alonzo Menifield ITD -110 Bet 2.2 units to win 2

Menifield vs Cirkunov to end in first 60 seconds +700 Bet .5 units to win 3.5

Menifield by ko round 1 +200 Bet 1 unit to win 2

Jordan Wright round 1 +350 Bet 1 unit to win 3.5

Jonathan Martinez + Alexa Grasso = +113 Bet 2 units to win 2.26

Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo

Grasso is a striker. She’s very accurate and has good striking defense. Really good at using range and landing punches just out of reach of her oppenents. She’s looked better and better every fight. Destroyed Wood in her last one. This is a tricky matchup for her and I went back and watched her fight with Esparza to prep. Grasso has a decent get up game and is always working from bottom. The thing that impressed me the most was her gas tank held up despite constantly wresting with Esparza. He tdd improved as the fight went on.

Araujo got a good win against a surging Angela Lee in her last fight. She survived early adversity and was able to use her wrestling to get the job done. She has excelled in the wrestling department in all her fights, even mounting Chookagian at one point in their fight. She’s athletic and strong with good power and submissions

This is a classic striker vs wrestler spot. I usually side with the wrestler, but I think this is a good matchup for Grasso. Araujo is there to be hit and Grasso is an even better striker than Lee is. Grasso survives some time on the ground and finishes Araujo late

Cub Swanson vs Jonathan Martinez

Martinez is someone who has impressed me during his time in the ufc. We’ve won money betting on him in his last 2 fights. He uses a nice lead jab followed by the left kick. He has pop in his shots and is usually the one leading the dance. Has elite boxing for the sport. He trains at factory X with a great team.

Everyone loves Cub Swanson. He’s been around forever and fought The Who’s who of the 145 division. This will be his first cut to 35 and this is what he had to say about it “And I just feel like me getting faster seemed like a good idea because speed is something I’ve had, and I’ve always felt like I’ve gotten a little outmuscled at ’45. I never felt like I was physically stronger than anyone I fought. Guys just seem to be getting bigger, and I feel like I’ve gotten a little smaller because I’ve been better about what I eat overall. Being an older fighter now, I’ve been trying to not cut (weight) like crazy. My cuts to ’45 have just gotten too easy, and I was able to be part-time dad, part-time fighter and balance it. I was like, ‘You know, if I’m really trying to get the best out of myself, I need a new challenge. I need to suffer a little bit.’ I really felt like that.” I like what I’m hearing and I like how cubs looked recently.

The thing I don’t love is this matchup for Cub. Martinez has the chops to stand and bang with Cub on the feet. Cub has lost to strikers throughout his career. He’s been able to hang with guys that come to bang and even guys with wrestling bases, but struggles against technical strikers. That is exactly what Martinez is. Pick is Martinez

Jordan Wright vs Dusko Todorovic

What a fight. Both guys are extremely flawed fighters with incredible finishing ability. Jordan Wright has great power and looks to have an improved offensive wrestling game, but has no chin at all and is open for submissions. Dusko also has a questionable chin. He moves his head straight back to avoid punches, but he has also shown power in his hands and a good top game.

If Wright had a chin I think he would actually be half decent in the UFC. I’m not sold on Dusko at all even though there are plenty of paths to victory for him in this fight. Taking Wright round 1 finish

Raphael Assuncao vs Victor Henry

Raohael, like cub, is another aging veteran. I was saying that I liked everything I was hearing from cub, well this is not the case for Assuncao. He talked at length about his struggle with covid and recovering from surgery. He did say he was able to regain his strength and that he’s still the last guy in the gym, but he said he knows his career is coming to an end soon. His contract his almost up and it doesn’t sound like he wants a renewal. He’s on a 4 fight skid against all top competition. He’s taking this fight against a relatively unknown in Henry, but it isn’t really a step back in competition. Henry is relentless and it’s a horrible matchup for the now 40 year old Assuncao. Henry gets the finish and Assuncao leaves the gloves in the cage

Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield

Misha cost me so much money in his last fight that I may have an extreme biased against him from now on. His time at 185 is done and he said the cut was too much for him. He felt like he had no strength at the weight class. Well you know what it looked like you had no strength buddy. He’s coming back to 205 and it’s pretty clear he wants to use his strength and get this to the ground. At least that’s what I took away from the press conference

Menifield is as strong as they come and I LOVE what he’s been saying in the lead up. “I’ve been training in the mountains with high elevation, just trying to keep it going,” Menifield said. “(I’m) just working on that endurance, cardiovascular so I could just be more myself in there.” He wants that endurance so he can show off that explosion without gassing if he doesn’t get the finish right away.

If Menifield comes out firing, not worried about gassing, then Misha is in big trouble. I smell a first round ko for Menifield coming

Mana Martinez vs Brandon Davis

Despite lack luster results in the ufc, I do think Mana is a prospect to watch. He struggled with Guido, but we now see Guido isn’t half bad. He struggled with Ronnie Lawrence and there’s no shame there, but what impressed me is that his gas tank held up and he had Lawrence hurt BAD in the 3rd round. Kids got power and seems to have the right mind set to succeed in the UFC

Davis is coming off getting demolished by Danaa. That was a bad knockout. He doesn’t really have any good wins outside of Randy Costa and that win isn’t aging well. He has fought tough comp and is very well rounded

I think the UFC is putting Davis here to get finished. Mana said he expects to get a highlight real KO and I believe him. Mana by tko round 1. The spinning back fist gets the finish this time 😉

Nick Maximov vs Jacob Malkoun

This is a fight between two wrestlers. Maximov has a more traditional style coming from collegiate wrestling. Malkoun just brings strength and a willingness to keep going longer than you and that’s how he gets you down. Striking wise neither man is a killer, but I favor Malkoun. Seeing a lot of people saying that Maximov will be the better wrestler, but I actually think Malkoun is the better MMA wrestler. This may come back to bite me, but I’m not sold on Maximov at all. Hate hearing him talk in his press conferences. He admitted he hasn’t dealt with his last loss great and doesn’t seem to have learned from it. Malkoun out wrestles, out strikes and out toughs Maximov for a Dec win here

Joanderson Brito vs Lucas Alexander

I didn’t know who Lucas Alexander was when I first saw his name as the replacement. Turns out he’s the guy who broke Jacob Kilburns arm with a head kick in Anthony Pettis’ fight league. Watching his tape he looks okay, but not UFC caliber. Easy matchup for Brito. Brito gets the finish

Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes

Rodriguez is a DWCS product. She won that fight against a really tough girl in Valesca Machado. That was a grueling fight, but Piera was leading the dance the entire time. She hits very hard for the division and has shown good wrestling and scrambles. Before DWCS she was a 6-0 prospect coming out of lfa. She has finished 5 of her 6 opponents and showed she can go the distance with a 5th round tko on her resume. She trains with killers like Sabina Mazo and Mackenzie Dern and those top training partners bring her confidence. She’s a striker, but she’s out to show that she is not one dimensional. She has real heavy power for the division and an excellent chin. She got hit with some big shots and never seemed hurt in the lfa. She also showed excellent takedown defense and cardio. She turned takedown attempts from her opponents and created takedowns of her own off of them even ending up in mount a few times throughout her career. She showed this in her last fight with Kay Hansen. Losing the first, but then turning the tides and even out wrestled Hanson.

Sam Hughes is having a career resurgence and has become quite the fan favorite. She loves to train and loves her new team. She has some power and likes to wrestle. She showed that wrestling in her last two fights. She strong as hell and is showing major improvements

Sam Hughes is everyone’s darling, but that run ends here. Rodriguez is a step up and will not quit when taken down. This may be a very close fight though and will be a stay away for me. Can totally see the judges getting this one wrong

Tatsuro Taira vs CJ Vergara

This is a fight between two guys who have impressed me in the UFC. I underestimated Taira a bit in his last fight and I was really pleased with what I saw. We actually have a very young and exciting Japanese prospect.  Vergara is a junk yard dog. He likes to make it dirty and relies on his chin to make it a war. Both guys are well rounded, but I see Taira using his own chin to survive early exchanges and get it to the ground where I think he will have an advantage. Going Taira, but think I’ll just watch this one

Mike Jackson vs Pete Rodriguez

Why is Mike Jackson in the UFC? This is a low level fight and I see Pete Rodriguez winning in round 1 despite the size difference was