UFC Vegas 63 Tape Study Notes

Full Card Analysis

UFC Vegas 63

Calvin Kattar vs Arnold Allen

Kattar is a boxer fighting out of Boston. He’s got heavy hands and is a very slick traditional boxer. He has a great jab and rips power hooks to the body. He is at his best when he is leading the dance. Every fight he lost his opponent made him fight off his back foot. Max dominated him that way. Shane Burgos also had success making him fight off his back foot, but kattar was able to land the kill shot in the 3rd. When kattar is cornered against the cage he has a tendency to cover up like a traditional boxer. That doesn’t work with 4 ounce gloves and he leaves his body wide open. He showed the fuck up against Giga and proved he is one of the elite in the division. He throws nasty elbows in tight and he strings combos together better than most. He got robbed in his last fight against Emmett. He’s now in a 5 round fight yet again. Even though he believes rounds 4 and 5 are to his advantage, kattar said he wants to end this one early.

Allen is a beast. He’s on a 11 fight winning streak dating back to 2014. He’s beaten some good comp in that time including Mads Burnell, Makwan, Gilbert Melendez, Nick Lentz and Sodique Yusuff. Allen is always in tremendous shape, but he did look gassed in the final round against Yusuff. Pretty sure that had more to do with the ridiculous pace than anything though. Has great takedowns and he’s no slouch on the feet either. Very well rounded. He decided to just brawl with Hooker in his last fight and it worked out for him. Not too sure how that works against Kattar though

I like this matchup for Kattar quite a bit. I wouldn’t call Allen chinny, but watching him fight he does get tagged at points. He needs to come forward against kattar, but that’s not an easy thing to do. I like the chin and takedown defense of Kattar to keep it standing. On the feet there’s not many that can hang with Kattar. I like kattar by 3rd round tko

Tim Means vs Max Griffin

What an awesome fight. At 38 years old Tim  Means has shown time and time again that he still has something left in the tank. His striking is unassuming, but deadly. Nasty nasty elbows, he’s long for the division and he has really good trips and interesting ways to get it to the mat. He looked decent against Holland in his last fight, but was unable to keep the pace. Tim Means is a crafty vet that can still be a problem for a lot of up and coming guys. He struggles against fighters with big power, athleticism and cardio in his older age

Max griffin was on a 3 fight winning streak before losing a split to Neil Magny. His wins were against some shotty comp though. He has some power in his hands. Throws nice kicks. Any step up in comp he loses. Is used to having a reach advantage and struggled with the reach of Magny. The reach is comparable against Means so it will be interesting to see who controls the range. Even in a loss he didn’t look bad against Magny

By all means (yep) this should be a stay away fight. My heart wants Means to win so bad just as a fan and it’s never smart to bet that way. I’ll probably end up with a small bet on Means, but this is a stay away

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Jared Vanderaa

Acosta is massive. He’s 6’4 with an 80 inch reach. He’s 7-0 and is 31 years old. Has 7 pro boxing fights as well and he’s 4-3. His best win is over Mo Dereese in Bellator. Acosta has decent boxing and hits very hard. He’s coming off a first round stoppage win on DWCS. He’s still green, but showed  against Dereese that he has decent takedown defense and power to stand with anyone. Mixes in nice body shots as well

Vanderaa is a UFC vet and he is also massive. He is also 6’4 with an 80 inch reach. He has looked TERRIBLE as of late and has cost me some money. Losing to Chase Sherman is not a good look and I know Oleinik is a submission specialist, but that was embarrassing from Vanderaa. Vanderaa knows this is his last chance in the UFC and he said he’s changed as much as possible to get this win. He now trains at Kings MMA

I’ve been seeing a lot of love for Vanderaa on Twitter, but I just don’t see it. I can’t bet on a guy that loses against Chase Sherman. Acosta may not be the next big thing at heavyweight, but he has plenty of power to knockout Vanderaa. Knockout prop is all I’ll be playing on this one

Josh Fremd vs Tresean Gore

This fight was originally booked back in July, but Fremd had to pull out and Cody Brundage stepped in. Brundage ended up knocking out Gore Brutally. Gore was looking okay up until that KO. Gore is very inexperienced, but the talent is there. He’s an extremely good athlete with good wrestling. His striking has looked great too, besides some defensive lapses. I came in wanting to pick Gore very badly. I just can’t do it. Fremd has good power, a good chin, good wrestling and great BJJ. He’s also tall and long. I lean Fremd in this fight because I think he has better cardio and he’s just tougher. I won’t be betting it money line though. May take the under. Think someone gets finished

Dustin Jacoby vs Khalil Roundtree

Jacoby is 34 years old he is 17-5-1 and is undefeated in the ufc with a draw against ion cutelaba (I thought he lost that). He proved me wrong and looked excellent against Darren Stewart. He’s on a 4 fight winning streak (since the draw)He throws heavy leg kicks, has power in his hands and has good cardio. He is a meat and potatoes type of fighter. He trains with Rob Wilkinson and Cody Brundage so he is getting some bad ass training in with fighters who are hot right now. That training paid off against Da Un Jung. He blasted right through him and got the KO.

When Khalil shows up he’s one of the scariest fighters on the roster. He has extreme power in his punches and kicks and honestly looks unstoppable when he’s coming forward. The problem with him is sometimes he doesn’t show up. He’s looked great in his last 2 and if that Khalil shows up against Jacoby, then we are all in for a treat.

Unfortunately this is another fight where I don’t have a great read. I’m just going to watch this one and enjoy the fireworks

Phil Hawes vs Roman Dolidze

I picked against Phil Hawes in his last fight and that was a huge mistake. Winn is just far to small to compete in this weight class and he had the worst gameplan of all time. BUT, for all the reasons I picked Winn against Hawes I will be picking Dolidze. Hawes gets hit a lot. Dolidze showed that when he puts it all together he is a problem. Hawes relies on his wrestling when he gets hurt and I don’t think it will work against Dolidze. Roman gets the finish against Hawes in an exciting fight

Andre Arlovski vs Marcos Rogerio De Lima

This is a horrible matchup for the Pitbull. I don’t see how he avoids the power of De Lima in this fight. Most likely outcome is De Lima comes out super aggressive, lands a takedown and pounds out Arlovski. I like De Lima by tko round 1. The aged veteran calls it a career after this one

Joseph Holmes vs Jun Young Park

This is a very interesting fight. Holmes is young and hungry. Holmes is 6,4 with an 80 inch reach and Park is 5’10 with a 73 inch reach. Park is always at a reach disadvantage, but overcomes it every time. Both fighters have good power and decent wrestling. Holmes has some sneaky good submissions that Park has to be ready for.

After watching Holmes vs Pickett again, I just can’t take Holmes here. Park has looked impressive in all his UFC fights. Despite his looks this dude is fucking legit. War Iron Turtle

Chase Hooper vs Steve Garcia

The Chase Hooper experiment rolls on. He looked much improved in his last fight against Colares, but the holes in his game continued to show themselves. Colares fought a bad gameplan and gassed. He should have been able to win that fight. Hooper still struggles with the strength of his opponents. He can be taken down at will and his striking, though improved, leaves much to be desired. He’s still only 23 years old, has a nasty ground game and good reversals. He’s a tough dude and tall for the division

Steve Garcia is not good. He got back packed by violent Bob Ross and showed very bad fight IQ in that one. He then got dropped twice by Charlie Ontiveros, but was able to come out on top. He got destroyed in his last fight vs Mehashate. He likes to come out aggressive and on the feet he should have a major advantage against hooper. He will also be the stronger of the two. Garcia should have never been fighting at light weight. This fight being at featherweight changes everything

Garcias fight against violent Bob Ross scares me, but that was at light weight. I’m not sure Hooper has the strength to completely control Garcia on the ground. On the feet Garcia has the advantage. The line is too wide and I am always willing to fade Hooper. I don’t think he’s ufc caliber

Cody Durden vs Carlos Mota

Durden is a little undersized for the division, but his strength has always held up. He has fought some really good comp in his time in the ufc and has looked great for the most part. He got destroyed by Mokaev, but Mokaev is a monster. He looked excellent in his last fight agaisnt Buys. Durden is a tough dude, well rounded and fights out of American top team.

Mota has been on my radar for a long time now. This dude is legit everywhere and has fought good competition. He deserves to be in the UFC. He’s LFA champ. He has massive power, good cardio and a slick ground game. This kid is good. Works as hard as anyone too.

This is such a good fight and I have a good relationship with both guys. Durden is a lot on short notice and I think Durden is durable enough to cause Mota some problems. If Durdens line keeps getting wider I will bet him, if not it will be a stay away and I will just be hoping for an amazing figbt