UFC Vegas 65
Tape study notes and betting card
UFC Vegas 65
What’s up guys! It’s Friday afternoon and I’ve been pretty quiet this week. I haven’t shared my opinions on this card with anyone yet. To be honest I don’t love the card. Looking at the card from top to bottom and this looks like one of the worst cards the UFC has pushed out in a long time. With that said, you never know. Some cards look like shit and end up being a lot of fun. Small card this week, but like always I’m confident. No Bellator plays tonight
BETS
Jack Della/Roberts ITD + Ion/Nzechukwu ITD + Lewis/Spivak ITD = -108 Bet 3.24 units to win 3
Natalie Silva + Ricky Turcios = +157 Bet 4 units to win 6.28
Natalie Silva by TKO +600 Bet 1 unit to win 6
Waldo Cortes Acosta round 1 +200 Bet 1.5 units to win 3
Waldo Cortes Acosta round 2 +400 Bet .75 units to win 3
Ion Cutelaba by TKO +250 Bet 2 units to win 5
Ion Cutelaba round 1 +450 Bet 1 unit win 4.5
Derrick Lewis by TKO +215 Bet 1 unit to win 2.15
Derrick Lewis round 1 +500 Bet 1 unit to win 5
Jack Della vs Danny Roberts
Not much to say about this one. Thought long and hard about getting the house on Jack by tko, but at -250 it’s a little too wide. Not because I don’t think he will crush Roberts, but because I think the sub is live. Only play I have for this is the ITD prop in a parlay. Jack will be the most popular play in DK, but you might need him
Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
Ion cost me a lot in his last fight. He stuck his neck out and got subbed instantly. Ion has all the tools to be a problem for just about anyone in the division. He is strong as hell, aggressive, decent gas tank, hits hard as shit and has great wrestling. His problem is being over aggressive and although he is strong he’s a little small. Nzechukwu on the other hand is massive, tough as nails and has some power. Nzechukwu lacks natural athleticism and the athletic gap in this fight will be hard for him to overcome. I see Cutelaba coming out and bombing on Kennedy, taking him down and finishing it round 1. I also think either way this fight finishes early so I added it to my ITD parlay
Derrick Lewis vs Sergey Spivak
Lewis is such an interesting fighter. He’s not all that good, but he has MASSIVE power and he’s a natural athlete. He gives up in fights. This is a bit controversial. I know he always goes out on his shield swinging and he even has some crazy comebacks after getting his shit kicked. Two things can be true at one time. Derrick Lewis quits when going gets tough. His body language changes, his gameplan and mindset changes to just swing blindly. He’s facing Spivak who is a guy I like alot and who has won me alot of money. This is a bad matchup for Spivak. Spivak also lacks athleticism and is there to be hit. He over reaches on takedowns and we saw Lewis capitalize on that before. Lewis by tko round 1 and the UFC makes a little more money on the guy before he retires. No money in Spivak. If Spivak wins I think he takes Lewis down and eventually gets the tko or sub. This fight rounds out our ITD parlay
Natalia Silva vs Tereza Bleda
Interesting fight, but Silva really impressed me last time out. Her speed is tremendous and I love her footwork. Bleda is a bit slow and plodding and relies on takedowns. I see Silva picking her apart on the feet and possibly getting a late tko
Ricky Turcios vs Kevin Natividad
I did not expect to be betting this fight, but after doing tape I think this fight is very very winnable for Turcios. I see him being better everywhere. I see a finish for Turcios
Chase Sherman vs Waldo Acosta
Everyone on Sherman all of a sudden. So weird to me. Yes he does have good leg kicks and Acosta got hit with a bunch in his last fight. Acosta also hit Vanderaa with bombs and Sherman doesn’t have the chin to take em like Vanderaa. I see Acosta getting the finish on an over aggressive Sherman