UFC Vegas 66

Full betting card and breakdown

UFC VEGAS 66

Bets

David Dvorak +210 Bet 1 unit to win 2.1

Said Nurmagomedov -105 Bet 2.1 units to win 2

Matthew Semelsberger +255 Bet 1 unit to win 2.55

Cody Brundage +240 Bet 1 unit to win 2.4

Alex Caceres +140 Bet 2 units to win 2.8

Props

Sergey Morozov ITD +165 Bet 1 unit to win 1.65

Said Nurmagomedov ITD +300 Bet .5 units to win 1.5

Said Nurmagomedov by split dec +1000 Bet .25 units to win 2.5

Cheyanne Vlismas ITD +400 Bet 2 units to win 8

Cheyanne Vlismas round 1 +700 Bet .5 units to win 3.5

Amir Albazi ITD -125 Bet 3.75 units to win 3

Amir Albazi round 1 +240 Bet 1 unit to win 2.4

Arman Tsarukyan ITD +250 Bet 2 units to win 5

Parlays

Tsarukyan + Rinat + Dober = +314 Bet 3 units to win 9.42

Betting Card Breakdown

David Dvorak - The line is way too wide. This is a bit of recency bias. Dvorak is very technically sound and if he can survive early I can see him picking apart Kape. He’s also tough as nails. Did you see that stare down?! Dvorak not intimidated one bit

Said Nurmagomedov - Said has not had an easy run in the UFC. Dude is fighting killers that have no name value. He may not be related to Khabib, but his defensive wrestling is on point. This is especially true for the types of takedowns that Saidyokub attempts. Nurmagomedov has excellent balance and when taken down he is very good about getting back up. His striking is electric. Said is the bigger of the two and that will play a factor as well. Expect round 1 to be wild, but eventually Said finds the mark

Matthew Semelsberger - This is another case of the line just becoming way to wide due to recency bias. Semi didn’t look great against Morono, but Morono isn’t an easy night for anyone. I like the athleticism and the dog in Semi against a guy in Matthews who doesn’t always show his best stuff on fight night

Cody Brundage - yet another wide line. I refuse to believe that Michal is very good. Brundage is tough and will he a lot bigger. If he doesn’t get starched right out the gate I think he gets Michal down and submits him

Alex Caceres - Bruce Leeroy is a guy I don’t usually bet, but he is a crafty bet going against a guy who is a bit sloppy technically. Good style matchup for Caceres. I like him to pick apart Erosa and possibly finish him

Sergey Morozov - this is just a big skill discrepancy. Any time there is a big skill gap i am going to take the ITD prop

Cheyanne Vlismas- it’s Christmas, you have to bet Vlismas. She will be a lot stronger and I really see her destroying McKenna here. McKenna is good, but too many holes athletically

Amir Albazi - again huge skill discrepancy in this fight. Albazi should win very easily

Arman Tsarukyan- Arman was robbed in his last fight. He is the real deal. Expect Arman to be the stronger more athletic of the two. Damir is a bit stiff and I think Arman will capitalize on that. Arman gets the takedown and gets a very impressive tko win

Rinat Fakhretdinov - I like the wrestling of Rinat to beat a slightly overrated Bryan Battle

Drew Dober - Bobby Green is a very likable guy. He’s got a great personality and he is very relaxed this week. Almost too relaxed. Green knows he will never hold the belt. He felt what it’s like against Islam. He’s now fighting for a paycheck. Dober will never be champ either, but he doesn’t know that yet. I expect Dober to land the harder punches and to hold a wrestling advantage over Green. I only have him in one parlay, but I actually like him quite a bit this week