UFC Vegas 67 Full Card Breakdown

Tape Study Notes

UFC Vegas 67

Nassourdine Imavov vs Kelvin Gastelum CANCELED

Nassourdine Imavov vs Sean Strickland

Imavov is one of the better prospects in the middle weight division. He is 6’3 and has the frame for the division. He will be the much bigger fighter in this matchup and holds a 3.5 inch reach advantage over kelvin. Imavov is on a 3 fight winning streak and has shown a very well rounded skill set throughout his UFC career. He finished both Edmen and Ian Heinisch. In both of those finishes we saw Imavov’s opponents get desperate and go for Ill advised takedowns. These bad attempts led to the finishing sequences, but make sure you note, these bad attempts were caused by Imavovs slick striking. He has great boxing and his right hand is a piston. Has good footwork, constantly coming forward. He put a beat down on Joaquin Buckley. Evaded the big power and picked him apart. Imavov did show a major red flag in this fight. Imavov slowed down big time in the third round. His body language completely changed and against someone like Kelvin this is a major problem.

Kelvin is obviously someone we know well. He’s been at the top of the division forever and the UFC is trying to milk one more main event out of him. At times he looks like a world beater and at times he looks unmotivated. He’s made some changes and now trains at fight ready. I believe this is his second camp with them. Cejudo is an amazing mma mind and I think he can get the best out of Kelvin. It’s hard to take too much stock in any of Kelvins recent losses as they are all to the absolute top of the division. He’s got one of the best chins in the division and he showcased that in his last fight. Canonier dropped him hard, but he was able to pop right back up. I like his forward pressure and his condition. The wrestling is a toss up. Kelvin has decent takedowns, but we saw him get out wrestled by Bobby Knuckles. Whittaker does everything well so I’m not too concerned, but I won’t give Gastelum the wrestling edge either.

Interesting matchup. Is Gastelum over the hill? Is this too much for Imavov? I can’t wait to see who takes the center. Both guys love to be the aggressor. I think Gastelum will take it and Imavov will gas being on his back foot for a prolonged period. Gastelums pressure is hard to deal with. They are both calling for a finish, but I tend to see this going to the judges either way it plays out. Gastelum wins a 5 round Dec. haven’t decided if I’m betting this one just yet

UPDATE! Gastelum out and Sean Strickland is in

Lines just dropped and Strickland is +100. If he doesn’t get starched I see him winning this fight. Especially since it’s at 205. Strickland stays in shape and his volume will be too much for Imavov to deal with. I’m betting Strickland at +100 before it flips

Dan Ige vs Damon Jackson

Ige has really been struggling as of late. Like Gastelum it has been against top competition, but not quite as top and he’s looked worse than Gastelum in these losses.  Skill wise Ige is excellent. He trains out of xtreme couture. He has excellent boxing. Power in his hands and he works the body and sets up his strikes to the head. Great balance and get up game. Strong for the division. He is however hitable and tends to gas. I question his mental game as well. He admitted to being a bit depressed after these recent losses and I have a feeling he has one foot out the door. Even if he isn’t in that mindset I think an early takedown or punch can put him in that mindset quick

Damon Jackson is on a 4 fight winning streak, with a very impressive tko over Pat Sabatini in his last fight. He ran through Sabatini. Jackson is a grinder. He likes to take you down and out grapple the shit out of you. His striking has improved and he said he’s been working on “straight down the line” techniques. This is great especially if you watched Evloev vs Ige. Everything Evloev threw was straight and everything landed. Another thing I loved hearing from Jackson is that he’s been focusing on his wrestling. He knows Ige is hard to get down and he knows to win this fight he’s going to have to get Ige down. Jackson is still batting with the death of his brother and rightfully so. That’s not an easy thing especially with the circumstances of his death. But he does seem focused on this fight and he said with a win he wants a quick turnaround. He wants a run at the title

This is a tale of two fighters on very different trajectories. Ige was on a winning streak in 2020 and was unable to turn it into a title shot. Damon is trying to do just that right now. A win over Ige puts him in the top 10ish of the division. The problem for Jackson is he is very hitable on the feet. If he can’t get this down he will get finished by Ige. Toss up fight where whoever wins will look like the obvious pick. I really like the fight ends ITD prop

Punahele Soriano vs Roman Kopylov

Soriano is the kind of fighter I love betting on. He has natural athleticism, he’s strong as all hell and he has next level power. He can truly put the lights out with one punch. He’s lost twice in the UFC and both were very close. He lost a split to Nick Maximov in a fighter where Maximov did nothing, but try and stick to Puna with the wrestling. His other loss was a very close fight to Brendan Allen. He gassed in that fight, but showed that he is able to push forward and still be effective despite being exhausted. He’s patient in the octagon and had an excellent chin. Hawaiian worrier.

Roman Kopylov is a Russian striker. He’s unproven so far in his career with his lone ufc win coming against Di Chirico. He was able to touch the chin of the very chinny Di Chirico and put him away. He’s looked lost against grapplers. Karl Roberson was beating him on the feet before subbing him out easily in the third. He showed toughness against Albert Duraev, but got schooled once it hit the mat. Tricky fighter on the feet and he will have a 2 inch reach advantage

Kopylov is a tricky striker, but I think Soriano is a little better everywhere. Soriano has more power, he’s got better cardio and he’s got better wrestling. He will also be the much stronger of the two and will find success with his power.  He can definitely dominate this fight on the ground if he chooses to. Don’t be too surprised if we see Soriano charge in aggressive and take kopylov down. He mentioned getting takedowns when he can in a few interviews and it would be a very very smart gameplan here. Kopylov is a tough dude, but he gets finished here

Ketlen Vieira vs Raquel Pennington

Ketlen Vieira is one of the more exciting girls in the division. She has massive power and is now on a 2 fight winning streak. She’s well rounded. Uses her strength to get you to the mat and she has very good bjj once she is there. She nearly submitted Holly Holm. On the feet she is a little slow, but she’s patient and lands in great combos. Uses range very well. Even against the longer and very tricky Holm, she was able to land snapping punches and that snap is what ultimately lead to her winning that controversial Dec. she has had weight and cardio concerns in the past, but I am willing to forget about those after her last two performances

Rocky is a girl who does everything right. She’s on a 4 fight winning streak. She trains with the best girls in the world every day. She is technical in everything she does. Very efficient in the cage. No wasted energy. Her only losses are to the very top. Has a submission win over Jessica Andrade. She is as legit as it gets.

Odds makers have this as a near pick em and I can see why. If Ketlen can squeak out a win against Holly then she can do it against Rocky. At least that’s the logic. Rocky is tough and I actually think she is a harder matchup for Ketlen for a few reasons. Rocky is faster than Holm and hits harder. Instead of getting into the clinch and stalling like Holm, I see Rocky using her counter striking against the slower Ketlen, just like she did against Ladd. Risky, but I’m going to have a small play on Rocky ITD. I think Ketlen is a bit fraudulent and is there to be hit. Especially as the fight goes on

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Raoni Barcelos

Umar is Khabibs cousin. It shows. He has the wrestling and grappling to ruin your day. He’s extremely strong for the division and is fully capable of just taking you down and beating you up for 3 rounds. Rinse and repeat. That entire crew has next level submissions and he shares that trait. The thing that separates Umar is his striking. He doesn’t need the takedowns. Umar can beat you on the feet and honestly I’m not even sure he needs his hands to do it. This guys kicks are next level. He uses them to keep range constantly throwing push kicks to the body and face of his opponents. He is capable of switch kicks and he throws straight punches behind em. Umar is only 27 years old and is a true prospect

Raoni surprised me a bit in his last fight. He looked far from done, dominating Trevin  Jones. Another well rounded guy and he may just be the Nurmagomedov killer. He has a win over unrelated, but equally as impressive, Said Nurmagomedov. He’s got good footwork, throws in combination and has a knack for taking his opponents back.

Raoni is good, but I just don’t see how he wins this fight. Umar is better everywhere. He’s a heavy favorite for good reason. No need to over think this. Umar easy

Claudio Ribeiro vs Abdul Razak Alhassan

Ribeiro is coming off of a brutal knockout win on DWCS, but unfortunately it happened so quick that we were unable to learn anything new about him in that fight. From what I’ve seen he’s athletic. He has natural KO power and he’s said he wants to be the Mike Tyson of the middle weight division. He’s tall and long and will hold a 4 inch reach advantage here. He’s sloppy. Gets away with a lot because of his power. Doesn’t have good form defending takedowns. Uses raw athletics and strength. He’s been able to get away with it to this point though.

Abdul Razak Alhassan is a ball of muscle. Massive power and athleticism. He’s another fighter that is dangerous even when he’s dog tired. He’s somehow able to be effective still. Has decent takedowns and a decent get up game. He claims he was injured and recovering from covid going into that Buckley fight. He also broke his rib in the second round of that fight and was able to win the third in dominant fashion.

I picked against Ribeiro in his DWCS fight and I’m picking against him again here. I think Alhassan has all the tools to win this one. What scares me is Ribeiro may just be “that dude” he has the power, athletics and look to be a star. Not certain on a bet here yet

Mateusz Rebecki vs Nick Fiore

Rebecki can do it all. He had a very tough test on DWCS and showed that he truly belongs. He’s a little small for the division, but makes up for it in strength. He’s one of those naturally strong dudes and he has the grappling base to be a nightmare for anyone. He trains at American top team and has helped Gamrot out in the past, which is interesting because they have a similar style. He is relentless when he gets you to the ground. Brutal ground and pound and constant submission attempts.

Fiore is not UFC caliber. This is a set up fight. He’s only 6-0 and his last opponent had a record of 5-20.

Rebecki is -700 and there honestly might be value there. Fiore is tough and the trap might be Rebecki round 1. I’m going to take it anyways

Javid Basharat vs Mateus Mendonca

Javid Basharat is special. He’s looked good at every step up he’s had so far. This is a small step down from his last fight. The line is wide and it should be. Mendonca has raw power and that’s it. Basharat way better in every area. Should get a finish here. Don’t know why they made this matchup. Mendonca has potential. They didn’t have to do him like this

Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernandez

Nascimento came through for us huge as an underdog in his last fight. He is now over a -300 favorite against a UFC newcomer In Hernandez. After watching Nascimento vs Tagir I said this is a kid I will be betting on going forward. He is one of the trickiest fighters to deal with on the roster. He’s truly a guy that can beat you off his back and he has more than one way to sweep and reverse position. Nascimento’s striking is decent, but he is violent at all times. He trains with Chucky Olives and it shows. Nascimento is dangerous and can probably hang with just about anyone in the division

Carlos Hernandez has very good foot work and even better head movement. He throws creative strikes and threatens takedowns just enough to keep you honest. When he does land takedowns he has shown he’s heavy on top. Does not gas whatsoever great cardio. He’s a meat and potato’s fighter that will not go away easy.

I actually think Hernandez has the tools to make this fight difficult for Allan on the feet. The problem is if this hits the ground he’s now in Nascimento’s world. -300 is a little rich for my blood. I much prefer Allan as a dog. Waiting to see what the fight goes Dec prop is. That feels relatively safe. Another thing to keep an eye on is their size. They are listed at similar heights, but I have a feeling Nascimento is going to be the much bigger man in this matchup

Isaac Dulgarian vs Dan Argueta

Isaac is a glory mma fighter. I tried to do some digging and find out where he’s been training since the ban, but I didn’t have any luck. From what I can see he’s been fighting cans. He has a wrestling background and he is the guy that the Nelk Boys chose to get a UFC contract. Not too sure if theyve done anything with him since that night though. He goes in gets a takedown and once it’s down he transitions easily to wherever he wants to be. He uses his control to land BOMBS. He’s undersized for the division and he’s come down from fighting at 155. He could make 135 no doubt. He does seem strong though.

Argueta isn’t that tallest guy, but he’s pretty jacked. Natural athlete and a tough guy. We saw him get mauled by Damon Jackson on short notice, but he just would not go away. He was able to reverse positions a few times, cardio held up and he looked good on the feet. He’s a TUF alumni, losing to Ricky Turcios on the show.

Dulgarian is the dog, but from what I can see this is a good matchup for him. I think he controls the wrestling and he has the power to hang on the feet and gnp to finish the fight. Jackson was looking for a submission, where as Dulgarian looks to blast you. I like Dulgarian in a good fight

Update! Dulgarian out Nick Aguirre in

From what I’ve seen Aguirre is actually pretty good. He has excellent takedowns and comes from a wrestling background. Good power in his hands and he tends to finish fights whether it’s with that power or submissions. He’s good enough to where I will be staying away from betting Argueta.

Charles Johnson vs Jimmy Flick

The fight that raised eye brows the second it hit the market. Massive amounts of money came in on Johnson inflating Flick to a +500 underdog almost as soon as the lines dropped. This made some in the community question Jimmy Flick’s motives behind coming back to fighting. Flick’s initial opponent was Jeff Molina. Molina is tied to James Krause and has been suspended by the UFC while the investigation into their antics takes place.

Was Flick coming back to take a dive against Molina? How serious has Flick been about training. He claims he didn’t train at all for the two years he’s been gone, but that he has a renewed passion for the sport. However, he only quit his job in December for a fight against a killer in Johnson in early January. Just very interesting stuff.

Prior to his exit from the sport Flick had an impressive flying triangle win over Durden. Flick is not a great athlete, his striking only exists as a place holder, but he has bjj to take anyone out. He is a true specialist.

Johnson on the other hand has excellent striking, good power, he’s a good athlete and has shown that he belongs despite winning a controversial Dec in his last fight against zhalgas. Johnson has good bjj and should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. As long as his fight iq holds up he should win this fight. He has shown good submission defense in his career against Mota, zhalgas and Mokaev.

Johnson KOs an always overrated Flick

Priscilla Cachoeira vs Sijara Eubanks

Priscilla shocked me in her last fight. She has power for the division and it showed. Prior to that she won the worst Dec I have ever seen in my entire life. Besides power in the division it does seem like her striking has been improving. She has a wide arsenal. She also has major holes in her ground game that she has also been improving.

Eubanks is 7-7, but is a lot better than her record shows. She’s a girl I’ve been higher on than most. I like her striking and she’s a good grappler. She even showcased that in the Gatto fight. She’s good in the clinch and is very heavy on top

If Eubanks doesn’t get flash KOd I think she drags Priscilla to the ground and wins a wrestling match. Wouldn’t be shocked if either girl got finished here