UFC Vegas 68 Tape Study Notes

Full card breakdown

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UFC Vegas 68

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Spivak

Lewis is such an interesting fighter. He’s not all that good, but he has MASSIVE power and he’s a natural athlete. He does however, give up in fights. This is a bit controversial. I know he always goes out on his shield swinging and he even has some crazy comebacks after getting his shit kicked, but two things can be true at one time. Derrick Lewis quits when the going gets tough. His body language changes, his gameplan and mindset changes and he just swings blindly hoping it ends one ko way or another. I was ready to write off Derrick Lewis. Then I looked back at his losses and they are all to absolute killers. How can I knock the guy. Spivak is a big step down from the guys he’s been fighting. Yes, I know. Spivak beat Tui. Styles make fights and Tui is a terrible matchup for Derrick Lewis.

Spivak is a guy I like alot. He’s a guy that has won me alot of money. This is a bad matchup for Spivak. Spivak lacks athleticism and is there to be hit. He over reaches on takedowns and we saw Lewis capitalize on that before. Looking at Spivak did record he is also a guy who had only recently lost to the top, but unlike Lewis, his wins are against much lesser comp. Spivak can be nasty when he gets you in the ground, but he relies on takedowns to win fights. He’s still very young and improvements are possible.

Derrick Lewis loses to guys with massive power and guys who can beat him up on the feet. Derrick Lewis has traditionally crushed wrestlers. Spivak loses to guys who have massive power and that are athletic. This is a perfect get right fight for Lewis. I see Lewis knocking out Spivak round 1. If Lewis does lose this fight he is truly washed. I will take Lewis at dog odds here. I also really like the quotes I’m seeing from Lewis this week. He knows people are counting him out and he wants to prove them wrong

Da Un Jung vs Devin Clark

Jung is absolutely massive for the division. He is 6’4 and has a frame for heavyweight. He’s 29 and seems to fill out that frame more and more every fight. Clear difference in size from the Mike Rodriguez fight to the knight fight and he’s continued to fill out that frame. He’s very strong and has nice trip takedowns. Once he is on top it is very hard to get up. Makes you wear his weight very well. The way he gets takedowns also allows him to fall right into half guard or side control. He uses double unders, lifts you and trips you. Not the fastest guy, but throws a stiff jab and a nice right cross behind it (how he knocked out Mike Rodriguez). Not the best level of comp. He won his fight against Kennedy but it was a really weird fight. Neither guy was moving at all. They were standing right in front of each other “toes touching”, as the broadcast team mentioned, and were just throwing single shot punches at each other. Jungs power came through though and he got the dub. We knew he was at a disadvantage in his last fight against Jacoby. Bad matchup for him, but he didn’t look bad until he got knocked out. Have to question his chin a little after that fight

Devin Clark is a guy I’ve always rated a bit higher than most. He’s athletic. Really good kicks. Underrated power. Has excellent wrestling (he doesn’t always utilize it though) and he’s as tough as they come. He took a beating from Azamat in his last fight. He wasn’t going to get tkod with shots to the head and even Azamat said he came to that realization so he started throwing to the body. Clark crumbled. He was done. Bad body language and he honestly gave up. Not a good look. He trains at elevation fight team and from what I can see on social it looks like he’s implored Zac Pauga as his main training partner for this camp. Pauga isn’t as tall as Jung, but he’s a big guy and I really like him as imitation Jung. It also appears that Clark is coming in in excellent shape. He looks HUGE and in a good way

Styles make fights and I actually think Clark can win this fight. Clark is a low iq fighter so I’m not banking on his wrestling here. Really didn’t like how easily Jung was rocked in his last fight and Clark is capable of cracking. He’s been practicing “being more of an asshole” in training and I think it will pay off. I’m going to say Clark finishes Jung here. I know that sounds crazy, but I think we are going to realize that Jung wasn’t as good as we ever thought he was. On the flip side if jung is legit he should get the finish. I like fight doesn’t go the distance as a parlay piece

Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov

Tybura has been around forever. Before entering the UFC he fought very good competition over in M1. He came to the UFC got two wins, one being Arlovski and they threw him into the deep end. Tybura faltered. He lost 4 of 5 fights, getting knocked out in 3 of them. He then had a career resurgence. He finally decided to use his size and his wrestling and it worked. He came in with great game plans and was able to win 5 in a row. Yes, he had good game plans and his wrestling looked okay, but he was fighting way lesser competition. He then takes a step up against Volkov and loses. His next fight against Alexandr Romanov he gets 10-8ed in the first round and got lucky that Romanov gassed. I was not impressed watching back Tyburas wins. Very low level comp and his wrestling is just not great. He is however good once he gets it to the ground. Uses his size well to control you. He is now 37 years old and not someone I’m looking to bet

Blagoy continues to show he can hang with just about anyone in the world. He’s not the biggest heavyweight, but he may have the best chin. The guy eats punches and has no reaction. Isn’t wobbled at all. He trained for a long time at AKA. I tried to find evidence that he was still there, but couldn’t confirm. I did find some footage and pictures of him sparring with Francis and putting in some work with Spivak, so makes me think maybe he worked a bit at Xtreme? I really don’t know. Blagoy came off a near 3 year layoff to fight a very explosive guy in De Lima and he passed that test. Blagoy is known for his toughness. In 2012 the guy was stabbed in the heart and lives to fight on. He has great takedown defense and was a sambo champ back in the day. He likes to stand and bang though. One thing I was surprised by in his last fight was his power. He’s still got some pop in those shots!

Everyone is talking about this fight going to Dec and I get it, but let’s not forget these guys are heavyweights. They are also aging fighters. Aging fighters tend to get finished. Blagoy is far more skilled than Tybura in my opinion and I think he gets it done. I’m going to take the dog shot on Blagoy and I’m going to take Blagoy by tko

Doo-Ho Choi vs Kyle Nelson

Choi was a hot prospect coming into the UFC. The Korean super boy had the look, the toughness and the finishing ability to be a star. The UFC fast tracked him and it paid off for fight fans, but not so much for Choi’s record. He had a war with Cub Swanson and then two more wars that resulted in him getting finished twice. Choi then went on to do his mandatory military time and has been away from the sport for 3 years. Choi has great striking. Throws very straight punches and rips to the body. He is hitable though. With his time away he is a big question mark this week

Nelson hasn’t had great success in the UFC, but he has faced pretty good competition. After losing his last fight to Jai Herbert at 155, Nelson has decided to drop back down to 145. Nelson has had a hard time making 145, but stated it’s because he’s taken some fights on relative short notice. He says this has been his best cut so far and he’s actually been able to eat more this time, even more than his last cut to 155. Nelson has def had cardio issues, which he also attributes to the weight cut, but that’s yet to be seen. He’s got some good power and good wrestling, but I’m not sold that he is UFC level

I love chois skills, but the time away scares me. I’ll probably end up staying away, but I do think this is a great matchup for Choi. This is a favorite or pass for me

Yusaku Kinoshita vs Adam Fugitt

Yusaku is 6-1, but realistically he’s undefeated. His loss was a DQ for using the fence as leverage while he stomped on this dudes head. Head stomps were legal, grabbing the fence was not. Yusaku is an explosive athlete, all his wins are by finish. Throws everything with bad intention. He’s only 22 years old. I like his movement, but he got hit a bit in his contender series fight. Chin held up great though. At 22 he’s a very exciting prospect. He’s now training out of kill cliff fc

Fugitt took his UFC debut on short notice against a killer in Michael Morales. He lost that fight, but proved he belongs. Before that he was on a 4 fight winning streak, including a knockout win over Solomon Renfro. He’s faced some tough comp on the regional scene. He’s an awkward striker and he’s got power in his hands. Strong wrestler too. Fugitt is a little underrated coming into this fight. He will also have a 6.5 inch reach advantage

Kinoshita is clearly the fighter the UFC is trying to showcase here, but Fugitt has a lot of tools that can give Kinoshita a run for his money. Kinoshita struggled in his last fight to overcome a big reach disadvantage. This one is not quite as big, but Fugitt is a much better athlete and the consequences of mismanaging the reach will be greater. This is a weird card and it’s tough to trust fighters coming out of the Asian market. I’m taking a dog shot here even though it’s very possible we see a highlight real KO from Kinoshita

Jeka Saragih vs Anshul Jubli

Jeka is an EXPLOSIVE athlete. I love his leg kicks. They can end a fight. This dude has a massive right hand and everything he throws just has natural power. He’s fast and his cardio has looks like it holds up. Saragih is a good offensive wrestler. He has some holes in his grappling defensively. Relies on explosion.

Jubli is the self proclaimed pride of India. He’s a technical striker. Throws very straight punches. Has very nice timings on his knees when opponents come in to clinch. He will also throw them from range. Fights with his chin a bit high in the air. It is cause for concern. Showed good grappling with some slick submissions. Has a very questionable gas tank

Gas problems aside I think Jubli gets knocked out. Jeka’s power is legit and even though he’s not quite as technical, it only takes one. Jeka does carry his power late and that’s just a bonus. I like Jeka by tko round 1

Lee Jeong Yeong vs Yi Zha

I really don’t like this fight at all. Both guys look fraudulent to me. Lee has massive power, but his style is dated. He adopted the classic Asian striking style we are used to seeing. Stiff power strikes, doesn’t move his head.

Yi struggled in his last fight, getting a split Dec to get here. He constantly moves forward and has some decent grappling. Uses toughness to break opponents

Don’t like this fight. I do see Lee getting a knockout as the most likely outcome though

Toshiomi Kazama vs Rinya Nakamura

SHIT KICKING ALERT 🚨 🚨🚨

Rinya looks to be the real deal. A Japanese wrestler who had Olympic hopes, turns to MMA. The kid has power in his hands and that wrestling base to grind you into the dirt. He’s strong as hell and has a great frame for the division. His mental game is what I like the best. “Honestly, I value the process more than the result,” Nakamura said. “First-round finishes look good on paper, but when I think about the process point of view, I’m just getting started.” He knows he has to put in the work to be great and that’s what he’s doing. Rinya round 1

Choi Seung Guk vs Park Hyun Sung

Choi struggled a bit on the show. He was away from the sport for a while and came in with some ring rust. He used his grappling to win his last two fights and showed some grit. He’s one of Korean Zombies boys and is trying to represent. He’s a small guy, but has some strength. If he can’t get Park down he will be in trouble

Park will be the bigger of the two and he will be the superior athlete in this fight. I really like his take down defense. His striking looks sharp and he’s not afraid to mix it up and take you to the ground. Park looks to be the real deal

Park is a decent favorite here and I see why. I think he dominates this fight. If Choi didn’t have ties to Korean zombie he would be an even bigger dog here

Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm

This pains me to say, but STAY AWAY!!!!!

I love Kim and I don’t like Bohm at all, but how can you possibly justify a -275 bet on Kim. You can’t. No breakdown because I don’t want to tempt you

Jun Yong Park vs Denis Tiuliulin

Park is our guy! He could easily be on a 6 fight winning streak right now, but he decided to get in a firefight with Greg Rodrigues. Park has good power, a great jab and he’s just very technical with everything he does. He is always at a reach disadvantage, but overcomes it with ease. He has never struggled with being the shorter fighter. He also has great wrestling. The Iron Turtle is an underrated fighter. This dude is good and he’s also stronger than expected

Tiuliulin is 11-6 and his style represents his record. He likes to stand and bang. He is willing to get hit to hit you. He does hit hard and he has one hell of a chin. He’s as tough as they come. He will not tap. He’s not particularly good anywhere. He’s tough and scrappy and that’s what got him here. He trains with Sean Strickland and you can definitely see why Strickland likes him so much. He is a bit susceptible to being submitted. Dangerous on the feet

Tiuliulins only chance is to hope that the iron turtles chin is done. He needs a knockout. The iron turtle is capable of piecing him up on the feet, but his big advantage is on the ground. I think we see the Turtle get back to his smart fight IQ roots and grind out Tiuliulin here. People are saying Park has bad figbt iq off the Robo cop fight. Thats not the turtle I know. Iron turtle by sub

Tatsuro Taira vs Jesus Aguilar

This is a big mismatch to start off the card. UFC knows what they are doing to get that Asian Market excited right away (even though it won’t be in person)

I actually picked Aguilar as a dog in his contender series fight. He’s got some good power, he’s got good striking defense and he’s got a great guillotine. Very tight squeeze. Aguilar says he’s putting in the work and I like everything I’m hearing from him.

However he is at a big deficit against the much bigger, younger, more skilled Taira. I under estimated Taira when he came in. He proved me wrong. He’s got good striking and excellent grappling. Don’t see him losing this fight. Taira will get the finish to start the card