UFC Vegas 69 Tape Study Notes

Full card breakdown

UFC Vegas 69

69 lol

Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield

Jessica Andrade is a BEAST. She’s on a three fight winning streak with two first round finishes over the likes of Amanda Lemos and Cynthia Calvillo. That Lemos win is just getting better and better with age too. She’s impossibly strong for the division and has explosion only seen in mens divisions. She beat the shit out of Lauren Murphy in her last fight. Towel could have been thrown, it was bad. What I was impressed with was Andrades cardio. She put on a strong pace and threw a ton of bombs and her cardio held up!

Blanchfield is only 23 years old and has looked better every fight in the UFC. She’s 10-1 and her one loss was a questionable split with Tracy cortez in invicta. She’s finished her last two fights and so far has had a grappling edge over everyone she’s fought. She struggled with jj aldrich a bit early on. She was getting hit and Aldrich was able to force her to the cage. She overcame this and got the sub.

Blanchfield is so good, but Andrade is a little too much. This is a big step up for Blanchfield. Andrade can grapple. Andrade will be stronger. Andrade will be faster. Andrade is the much better striker. Andrade gets a finish and it will only make this you g prospect better

Jordan Wright vs Zac Pauga

Man oh man oh man. A Jordan Wright fight. Have you ever heard of a glass cannon? Well that describes Jordan Wright perfectly, if that cannon only had half the gun powder you need to actually fire it off.

Ive lost a bunch of money on Jordan Wright because if you watch him on tape he has some skills. His striking is great, has huge power, a long reach and is athletic. In his last two fights he’s shown off Greta offensive wrestling. On the ground he transitions great to half guard and goes to work. The problem with Wright is he has no chin at all. Negative chin points. He also has no cardio. He dominated Dusko in the first round with his wrestling. He then gassed out and became a punching bag. When he gasses his non existent defense, gets even worse. Didn’t take Duskos punches well despite not getting knocked out cold for once.

Zac Pauga is one of Curtis Blaydes main training partners and you have to think that’s making him better everyday. Pauga played football and was very good. He played all 4 years at Colorado state as tight end. He then went on to try out for the Texans as a RB. He also played professional rugby. Very athletic guy and he’s only been training MMA for like 3 years. Has good hands and footwork. Looked excellent on TUF. He was beating Usman until he got caught and knocked out. He says he learned a lot from that KO “So it just made me double down on the basics and tight defense, because one mistake is all it takes and you don’t get a chance to make up for it like you do in other sports. You throw (an interception in football), you can always come back out and try and get it back. That’s not the case in MMA, so I learned from that and I grow from that.” He also says light heavy was always the plan, but heavyweight opportunities came up for tuf and he couldn’t pass them up

I almost always bet Wright, but not again. Pauga is just better. I don’t think Wright will be able to wrestle, he will gas and he will get knocked out. Wright has never been to the judges and he doesn’t start here.

Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues

I know what you’re thinking. The co main event was such a high profile fight, what else does this card have in store! Yes, Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues on the main card. What a gem

Josh Parisian is a lower level heavyweight. He’s a striker. Can throw with volume, has decent footwork and speed for the division. Says he’s been working on sitting down on his punches and delivering power. He’s 2-2 since entering the ufc. He’s really struggled with anxiety recently. After his loss to Don’tale Mayes he said he was a broken man. Said mentally he lost before even entering the cage. He has a very long Instagram post talking about his mental state, how he didn’t expect to grapple and that’s why he gassed out and cutting his heal in the hot tub. All sound like excuses and trying to justify his loss. Then he goes in against Allan Boudot and gets dropped, but was able to use his grappling, dominate and get the finish over a guy who doesn’t belong in the UFC. After that win he was scheduled to face Chase Sherman, but pulled out due to a “medical event”. This is what Parisian posted on social “One of the worst days of my life,” Parisian wrote. “I unfortunately will not be fighting tonight. I woke up at 1:07 a.m. this morning with my heart beating out of my chest and soaked in sweat. I tried to relax over the next two hours but I [was] going in and out of chest pain, cold sweats, nausea and light headedness. I decided to go to the ER at around 3 a.m. and was there until 8:30 a.m. They were able to get rid of my nausea and chest pain but my palpitations had gotten worse.

“In over 50 fights, I’ve never pulled or been pulled from one. I am devastating for myself, everyone that helped me this camp, the UFC, the fans and my opponent. I’ll be seeing my cardiologist when I get home to see what is going on with my heart and go from there.” Obviously he was cleared and based on his past statements I assume this was an anxiety attack. No one knows what his mental state will be like going into this one

Pogues is 27 years old and is a 2 time DWCS alumni. He won both of his fights and fights with a chip on his shoulder after winning his first dwcs fight and not getting a contract. This is what Pogues had to say about that “From that fight on, it kind of gave me a chip on my shoulder. I must not be good enough or they would have accepted me. Despite what people may think or say, that’s what I took away.” He’s a big boy. He used to fight at light heavyweight, but has gained weight and now that doesn’t seem possible. He pulled out of his last fight against Tafon and I wonder if it was a weight issue. Pogues is a wrestler. He started training mma at a young age. He’s a black belt in bjj and has fought tough competition in his young career. Has good cardio for a heavyweight and very fast hands. Not the most power. Capable of big slams though

This is a good matchup and I favor Pogues. He should have the edge in the grappling and I think he’s just tougher than Parisian. Fight goes the distance is a good bet

William Knight vs Marcin Prachnio

William Knight is quite literally a ball of muscle. He is an athletic freak too. Hits hard as hell. Has wins over Cody Brundage, Fabio Cherant and Alonzo Menifield. He’s coming off two losses in a row. A Dec loss to Maxin Grishin and a 3rd ko loss to Devin Clark at heavyweight. He’s dropping back down to 205 and looks to be in amazing shape. Weight cut should not be too much of an issue. I think he learned from his huge miss. He is super raw

Prachnio was an absolute killer before he came into the ufc. Dude looked the part and was finishing everyone. He came into the ufc and got knocked out by Sam Alvey, Ankalaev and Mike Rodriguez. All dudes who hit very hard. The ufc gave him his next fight against Roundtree (another guy who hits very hard) as a set up for Roundtree. That was a walking papers fight. Prachnio went on to win that fight. He then knockout Ike Villanueva in his next fight. Dude hits really hard and it looks like he’s having an Andrei arlovski esque chin resurgence. His fight with Lin’s was interesting. Prachnio still showed he is dangerous on the feet, but he got out grappled and he gassed out. He did get rocked and I don’t love his body language when hit, but his chin held up.

I like William Knight a lot. He’s from Connecticut and seems like a great dude. I just don’t think he wins this fight. Prachnio is  much more skilled and I think he has multiple paths to victory. William Knight can always win by tko, but don’t see it here. Pick is Prachnio

Jim Miller vs Alexander Hernandez

I love Jim Miller. He is my all time UFC cash cow. I’ve won more money betting on him than any other fighter. Unfortunately I watched tape for this fight. MMA is not kind to aging fighters and this is not a good matchup for him. Hernandez is back at 155 where he should be. Hernandez will probably get the finish in the first round. BUT WAR FUCKING MILLER

Lina Lansberg vs Mayra Bueno Silva

I like Silva a lot in this matchup, but no thank you at -420. Lansberg is tough and gritty. She can grind out a win against Silva if Silva is off just a bit. Pick is Silva. She’s a finisher too. If I’m playing anything it would be Silva ITD, but I’ll probably be staying away

Jamall Emmers vs Khusein Askhabov

Jamall Emmers is making his return after nearly 2 years away! Emmers has been around the fight game for a while now. He has a win back in the day over Cory Sandhagen. He lost on dwcs in 2018 to Julian Erosa before finally making it to the ufc on his own accord. He was given no breaks in his ufc debut losing a split to giga Chikadze. Emmers last win was over Vince Cachero. Emmers looked great against cachero almost taking him out in round 1. Cachero was game though. Emmers used a lot of clinch knees and long punches to get that win. Emmers went on to fight Pat Sabatini and he looked great! Fast as hell on the feet and he rocked Sabatini. He followed him to the ground and got right to mount. From there he got over aggressive, got into a leg lock battle and lost to a great submission artist. A little more composure and Emmers wins that easy. Trains out of team alpha male

Askhabov is 28 years old, fights out of tiger Muay Thai and is 23-0. He hasn’t fought since 2020 and has pulled out of his last two scheduled fights. Once for visa issues and once for injury. His highlights are impressive. Hits very hard. Nasty leg kicks. Good wrestling. Strong guillotine squeeze. He hasn’t fought anyone though. This is a big step up. Askhabov is a big question mark for me coming into the ufc. He may look amazing or he may look average

Right now Emmers is a small dog. If the line was wider I would definitely ride with Emmers, but currently I don’t see the value. The line is spot on. It’s like betting on a coin flip. Not my game. Fight to end ITD seems safe though

Ovince Saint Preux vs Philipe Lins

Osp may not be 40 yet, but he is 39. He has also been around forever and has fallen on hard times as of late. He’s 1-2 in his last 3. He got tkod in his last 2 losses and won a split Dec of the shell of Shogun. He’s fought amazing comp throughout his career and he has good power on the feet and is known for his submission game. Very long. Has an 80 inch reach which is good for a 2 inch reach advantage here.

Lins came to the UFC from the pfl. He won the million dollar tournament and was looking like the man to beat. He then lost to arlovski and then got knocked out by tanner Boser. He had 2 years off and a million canceled fights before getting back in the win column against prachnio. Not overly impressed

This is a pretty trash fight. I think OSP is washed though. Lins wins in an ugly fight

Nazim Sadykhov vs Evan Elder

This is a fight between two guys that I have not been impressed with.

Sadykhov won his DWCS debut with a big 3rd round KO. He rocked his opponent early with a huge punch and a spinning back kick to the body. If that doesn’t land I really question that he wins that fight. It did land though and Sadykhov has some serious power. Throws with bad intentions. He’s very calm in the cage and tries to walk his opponents down. Has bad body language when he gets hit and I don’t like how he reacts when his opponent is the one to take the center of the cage. He trains with the Matt the steam rolla Frevola. Power is his biggest asset. He’s a little slow

Elder took his UFC debut on short notice uo a weight class. He paid the price for that and got beat up. He trains at Sanford mma and he is a striker. His level of comp has been horrible and he hasn’t been finishing guys on the regional scene quickly like you would hope. He is tough as nails. A bit hitable on the feet, but I do like how when he retreats he plants his feet and comes back with hard counters. Well rounded guy. Showed a great get up game in his last fight

Both these guys are very green. Power edge goes to Sadykhov, but skill and toughness goes to Elder. I see it going two ways. Elder backs straight up, this leads to him eating punches. Sadykhov has great power and in that scenario may be able to catch Elder and put him away. BUT elder has shown a great chin and he almost baits his opponent Into chasing him down. When they do he plants his feet and returns fire. Sadykhov doesn’t react well to taking shots and Elder could benefit from that. I lean Elder, but this is a pretty low level fight. High variance

AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo

AJ Fletcher is sitting at 9-2 with two losses in a row now. 8 of his wins came by finish. 4 by tko 4 by sub. Fletcher is one of Dustin poiriers boys and he trains every day with Dustin, pablito, Alan Jouban and those guys. He’s strong as shit and very well rounded. His last 5 wins came by finish in the first round. He showed up on DWCS. Dude won by flying knee in just over 2 min. When we had pablito on the show and he really raved about Fletcher saying he is going to be a monster. His two losses were not bad. He fought semi the Jedi to a very close decision and then he had Ange Loosa in all sorts of trouble before ultimately gassing out and losing the fight, but it was another close one. Kid showed his toughness too. At 25 he’s a prospect I like

Themba is an interesting character. He’s cocky as all hell and just doesn’t seem that good? He’s long, kind of a wild striker. Goes all out trying to get you to the ground. Seems decent enough, but this is a massive step up in competition. Seems like a guy that I would fade on DWCS

I think Fletcher crushes here. Fletcher should be better everywhere. I expect a finish

Clayton Carpenter vs Juancamilo Ronderos

Carpenter has been nothing but impressive in his young career. Go to YouTube and watch some of this kids fights. He has slick submissions and has power in his hands. Very aggressive because he’s confident no matter where the fight ends up. He trains out of mma lab with the likes of benson Henderson and Mario Bautista. The guy he fought on the contender series was no joke and he got the win. This is probably a step down in comp from that fight.

Ronderos took his ufc debut on 36 hour notice to fight David Dvorak. As expected that didn’t end well and he was finished in the first round. Ronderos is fast on the feet and didn’t look like a fish out of water. He got rocked and subbed by a much more polished guy. Carpenter is a more appropriate fight for him. After his fight with Dvorak he got suspended for weed and cocaine. Not what you want. He’s been saying he’s ready for this fight though and can’t wait to show what he can do on a full camp

I favor carpenter, but Ronderos isn’t horrible. I think this will be competitive and the -285 line on Carpenter is too wide for me