UFC Vegas 70 Tape Study Notes

Full card breakdown

UFC Vegas 70

Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann

Krylov is a guy that I’ve been high on for a long time. He has all the skills to be great in the 205 weight division and he’s actually a dark horse contender. Match him up with Jiri and I think I’m taking Nikita. Nikita has a bunch of experience for still only being 30 years old and all his recent losses are to top competition. He lost to Jan Blachowicz, Glover (by split), Magomed Ankalaev (by Dec) and then most recently he was beating the shit out of Paul Craig, lost concentration for a split second and that’s all it takes against Craig and he got subbed. I’m not taking anything negative away from the Craig fight. Krylov was the right side of that fight and he is who we thought. A top level talent. His fight with Glover really impressed me. On the feet early he showed great footwork and was throwing nice kicks from range. He fights with a nice jab and has good power in his shots. Glover got him to the ground early and he was able to reverse position and nearly subbed Glover. Krylov looked visibly tired in the second round, but was able to battle through it. He was getting hit with big shots and was eating them and was still able to fire back. He also was able to take down Glover multiple times even as tired as he was. He showed tremendous heart and submission defense in that fight. His fight against Ankalaev was also impressive especially that we know now he went in to that fight with a shoulder injury. He won the first round of that fight. Was able to land nice power shots and his takedowns looked on point early (even though he didn’t land many, he was facing Ankalaev, his entries and positions would have taken most down) he crushed a washed Gustafsson and then beat an always tough Oezdemir. He looks to be in the best shape of his life coming into this fight. Dude is shredded

Spann was a HOT prospect when he came in. Thunderous power and athleticism. Spann has looked really good at times and terrible at times in his UFC career. He knocked out a washed Reyes, choked out Ion easily, he got beat handily by Anthony Smith, knocked out a chiny Cirkunov before the fight even got going, got knocked out by Johnny Walker and won a split decision over Sam Alvey in a fight I thought he lost. Hard to know what you are going to get from the guy, but he tends to be kill or be killed. He claims he is finally training full time and serious now, but read these quotes. Lots of excuses.

“The truth is, it was my first full camp, really. I’ve trained before, against [Antonio Rogerio] Nogueira, I think I trained for that fight. There’s been a handful of fights that I may have trained for. My first amateur title fight, I think I trained for that one, but that was still for about four weeks. But for the most part, it’s fat training. I’m just trying to cut weight because I get big.”

“I feel like I wasted a lot of my 20s,” Spann said. “I did, athletically, because I didn’t really take it seriously enough. I knew how good I am, I knew how good I was. Everything always came so easy. I was just too immature to realize.”

“My brother would always tell me, ‘You need to be able to back your skills up with strength and conditioning,’ and I was like, ‘Why? I can kick people in the head. Why stretch?’ And it just kind of snowballed from there. We’ve got it under control now, though.”

“I’ve been sick basically the past two weeks now. I’m just now coming out better. I even sound better now. If you listen to me talk after the fight in there, I was nasally. I was trying to breathe the entire time. So I was just sick. I don’t know what was going around. I had some kind of upper respiratory infection or sinus infection something, mixed with flu or something. I don’t know what I had, but I was all jacked up. I couldn’t sit in the sauna... I had three or four pounds [to go] when I woke up and I just couldn’t tolerate staying in there without throwing up. Mucus and all that stuff. Everything was so dry or whatever, every time I got in there, I was probably in there for five or six minutes and then all of a sudden I’d start hacking it. It was bad.”

“F*** that. My kids have never seen me without my hair, and I’m not about to cut it like that, especially after I did all that work in camp,” Spann said. “I knew I wouldn’t have missed weight, so it was easier for me to accept why I missed it. So I just had to bite that bullet, because I was never cutting it. It was never an option in my mind.

The guy made up a bullshit excuse in his own mind that he actually made weight, but just wasn’t willing to cut his hair. I seriously question his toughness after reading his inability to go through any adversity to make weight.

Krylov is not only tougher than Spann, he’s the better fighter everywhere. I fully expect Krylov to beat the shit out of Spann….. Spann is unfortunately very dangerous early. He can obviously win by knockout. Keep that in mind before you risk the house

Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen

Muniz on the feet is long, doesn’t have much power. He’s aggressive, typically takes the center of the cage. Throws good kicks from range. Will blitz in with strikes looking for the smallest opening for a takedown. Muniz goes for a single leg almost every time. Grabs the leg and turns the corner. He’s got great technique with it and good trips as well. Once he’s on the ground he’s a wizard. Like possibly the best wizard in the ufc. Dudes gandolf motherfucking white.

Allen has great grappling (once it’s on the ground) and has heavy hands. He has really rebounded nicely from his knockout loss to Chris Curtis. He’s won 3 in a row with 2 finishes. His fight with Malkoun was very close, but Malkouns style is hard for most to deal with. I’ve been higher than most on Allen and called his upset win against Jotko. On the feet Allen hits hard as hell. Thudding kicks. He’s massive for the division. On the ground he has great bjj and is a scramble motherfucker. He did his camp for Jotko in Singapore and I liked that move for him. He’s another one who’s talked about struggling with being all in and that training camp away from home was great. He did not do his training camp for this fight over there. As far as I could see he mainly stayed local in Vegas. He’s very confident coming in, saying he is better everywhere. Not scared of the grappling at all

I almost always bet Allen. He’s been lucrative for me. This is not the spot. Muniz is a guy I told myself is a “bet on” fighter. I think he’s special and Allen can be goofy at times in the cage. His goofiness provides openings that someone as skilled as Muniz will exploit. Allen says he’s not scared of the grappling, but he should be. Muniz by sub

Augusto Sakai vs Don’Tale Mayes

Sakai is a big heavyweight. He’s 6’4 has a 77 inch reach and has a massive frame. He carries his weight well and throws some of the best volume in the heavyweight division. He’s capable of fighting 5 rounds. Even though he does have some first round knockouts (he is a heavyweight after all) I wouldn’t necessarily say he has great one punch knockout power. It’s punches in bunches and pressure that gets Sakai the finish. Hes starting to look like a bust prospect. He’s lost his last 4 fights against jairzinho, overeem, Tui and Spivak. He was finished in all of those fights. Seemed hesitant in his fight with jairzinho, then he got bullied by Tuivasa and he got beat the fuck up by Spivak too. It’s obviously all top competition, but that’s a lot of punishment. One thing I like from his is his strong low kicks. He can punish the calf.

Mayes fooled everyone into thinking he could be counted on as a favorite after knocking out Josh Parisian. He however, could not be counted on. He got beat up by a dude with 3 pro fights. Mayes is low output, awkward striking with not much technique. He’s got a little bit of power, prefers to drag a fight out. Has no takedown defense. He’s athletic and massive and that’s what has carried him into the UFC

Really thought I’d be taking Mayes here. I truly forgot just how bad he is. I think Sakai is washed so I might just stay away all together, but Mayes is the type of guy Sakai can terrorize. Sakai by TKO

Tatiana Suarez vs Montana De La Rosa

Saurez was the the hottest prospect at 115 pounds prior to her injury. Saurez has been out of competition since 2019 with a neck and knee injury. She trains at xtreme couture and according to Eric Nicksick she is literally the hardest worker in the room. She’s a wrestler and absolutely dominates people. She’s tough and gritty too. If Saurez is healthy she is a problem for anyone at 115 and 125

Montana is a wrestler. She has landed at least one takedown in all her fights besides her first 2 in the ufc. Even her losses are very close fights. Her striking is ever improving and she will have a 2 inch reach advantage. She struggled with the physicality of Macy Barber in her last fight, but showed her tenacity as well

Saurez is leagues above Macy Barber. If she is healthy she dominates this fight and finishes. I think she’s healthy and she looks to be in amazing shape. At -750 I struggle to get there though. That’s to rich for my blood

Mike Mallot vs Yohan Lainesse

Mike Malott is a DWCS winner and he impressed. He won that fight by sub in a little over 30 seconds. Before that he beat the tough Solomon Renfro by first round sub as well. He’s got power in his hands and his grappling is on point. He’s been around the game a real long time and his only loss is to Hakeem Dawadu. He most recently destroyed Mickey Gall. Mickey Gall doesn’t belong in the UFC, but you can’t knock a guy for a performance like that. He also beat Trevin Giles in a grappling match. He’s very technically sound. Trains out of team alpha male

I don’t know what to make of Yohan Lainesse. He’s big for the division, has some speed and has massive power in his hands. Before coming into the UFC he was a finishing machine. Granted that was against low level comp. He was a big dog on DWCS and one via first round ko. He then fights Gabe Green and rocked him in the first round. He went on to get finished himself, but green is a good opponent. His last fight was a split of Darian Weeks and it was a very uninspiring performance. Didn’t get anything going offensively. Lainesse likes to throw bombs and he does tend to try and mix in some wrestling in every fight.

I like Mallot to win this fight. He’s more technically sound. He throws straighter punches and should be able to dominate the grappling. Both fighters like to finish. I like fdgtd

Erick Gonzalez vs Trevor Peek

Gonzalez has had two fights in the UFC and he’s lost them both. He’s had a tough go of it though, getting paired against Jim Miller and then Terrance McKinney. He actually rocked both of them, before getting finished by both of them. He’s a long fighter. Has some power in his hands. Nice thudding kicks. He’s a little wild. Goes for takedowns in almost all of his fights. Didn’t love how he kept getting blasted by the same shot against Jim Miller and then a standing submission is never good.

Peek is 7-0 with 7 finishes. 5 coming in the first round. He’s had some legal trouble in the past that almost cost him his DWCS opportunity. Cody saftic rallied a petition to help get him here. The kid is good, but very wild. Overly aggressive. Gets out of position. But he is very strong and very powerful. As tough as they come. If he is still conscious he will still be going for it.

I don’t love this fight. I don’t think either guy has a very high ceiling. Gonzalez has a 5 inch reach advantage and is a +160 dog at the moment. I think that’s too wide. However I slightly lean toward Peek so I won’t be betting it. May look at the ITD props

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Gabriella Fernandes

I like Jasmine a lot. Her social media presence has been awesome, she’s charismatic and has become a very popular fighter with mma Twitter. She is Canadian and trains with Mike Mallott. Not that they train with each other, but prepping for a fight, weight cutting and being Canadian travel buddies helps make fight week easier.  Jasmine is very tough and she likes to wrestle. She got picked apart in her last fight

Fernandes is the LFA champion and looks to be the real deal. She has been fighting nobody’s, but I’m impressed with her movements. She’s so explosive, especially for womens mma. She’s strong as hell. Excellent submissions. Technical at all times. I think she can be very good

Jasmine is tough, but Fernandes is better. Line is right at -130 too. I’ll be taking her

Jordan Leavitt vs Victor Martinez

The monkey king Jordan leavitt is a grappler who can submit anyone. He has awkward striking and carries power in those long arms. He’s still green, can get bullied in the cage a bit. Has some sick highlights. Who could forget the slam KO of Matt Wiman. Kid is strong. He throws nice leg kicks and kicks to the body. Leavitt is an odd bird, but he can fight

Victor Martinez is on a 7 fight winning streak and has a great nick name in “the brick” he hadn’t fought in 2 years prior to his win on DWCS. He then had to pull out of the fight with leavitt in April of last year. Injury concerns? He stalks his opponents down and has heavy hands. Trains at fortis mma. Might be undersized for 155,but he’s decently strong. Fast hands and he’s a black belt in bjj. Good get up game

Another low level fight that I don’t have the best read on. I don’t think Leavitt is good. Line is close, I lean Martinez.

Ode Osbourne vs Charles Johnson

Oh man do I hate this matchup. These are two guys that I like a lot. Ode Osbourne was on everyone’s watch list prior to his KO loss to Tyson Nam and now after one (major) mistake he is forgotten. Ode is extremely athletic. He is a former teacher and he didn’t start training full time until after losing to manel Kape. He’s got a long reach, athletic, hits hard and has excellent subs. He was winning the fight against Nam prior to the knockout. He’s got extremely fast hands, rips to the body and he throws nice kicks to the body up the middle. He does however have a questionable chin. He was KOd against Nam and Kape. The Nam KO was just a stupid mistake from Ode. Went for a lazy jumping knee. No set up and paid for it. Kape hits very hard. Ode has lost every step up he’s had as well. That does scare me

Johnson has excellent striking, good power, he’s a good athlete and has shown that he belongs in the UFC. His win over Flick was the easiest ITD bet of all time. Johnson has good bjj and very good take down defense. Haven’t seen much wrestling offense out of him though. Johnson has been training out in Thailand for this fight. It’s a nostalgic trip for him, bringing up memories of his early fighting career. Thailand right now has killers in Johnson’s general weight. The training out there is some of the best in the world and I love that he made that move. Johnson also is one of the hardest workers in the sport. Cardio for days. Will never give up

I came in thinking this was a really good value spot on Ode, but after doing tape I lean toward Johnson. I think this fight finishes, but I would take fight doesn’t go the distance and not the under. Might go a little longer than we think

Rafael Alves vs Nurullo Aliev

Alves is an explosive athlete. He has a Muay Thai and BJJ background and he has taken those skills and become a very complete fighter. He trains with Bob Perez and has a really good team over there with Kevin Holland, Mana Martinez and Daniel Pineda. He’s fought three times in the UFC all against top competition. He lost to Damir Ismagulov, but he was able to show a lot of success in that fight and his cardio held up. His next fight was against Mark Diakiese and he blasted right through him and got the sub round 1. He then fought Drew Dober in a back and fourth war. He ended up getting dropped in that fight by a body shot. He can be content at times fighting off his back. He trusts his submissions and is constantly looking for the finish whether that’s on the ground or on the feet.

Nurullo is now known as Khabibs doppelgänger and he fights (he’s not khabib) similarly. He has excellent takedowns and smothers guys on the ground. He won his DWCS fight by ground and pound from full gaurd. He also moved his fight camp for Thailand for this fight. Tiger Muay Thai well represented. He’s fought very low level comp and he honestly struggled to get Wick down at times on DWCS. He eventually got a takedown, but all I kept hearing was how amazing Nurullo was at wrestling and I expected him to go in there and rag doll Wick and that just didn’t happen. He’s still only 23 years old so we can see massive improvements fight to fight. Will have a 4 inch reach advantage

I’m not saying Nurullo isn’t going to be that guy, but Alves is a massive step up. Alves is currently +155 and I’m willing to bet on the guy that’s been in the cage with killers. Alves and Alves ITD are bets I’ll be taking

Hailey Cowan vs Ailin Perez

Low level womens MMA. You should not bet this fight. With that said Ailin Perez is a dog and has a huge wrestling advantage. Beware of why she is a dog though. She’s an underdog to Cowan because she basically got broken by a big strong opponent in Egger. Cowan is big and strong. Don’t bet low level womens MMA and don’t bet on fighters that broke in their last fight. Stay away

Jose Johnson vs Garrett Armfield

Jose Johnson is tall long and athletic. He has massive power in his hands and uses great front kicks to keep range. When he enters the pocket he has brutal elbows and is great in the clinch. His long limbs give his opponents trouble when they tie up. He is 15-7 with his only recent losses coming to ufc comp. He lost to mana Martinez and Robbie Lawrence. He will have a 4 inch reach advantage in this fight

Armfield took his UFC debut fight on short notice vs David Onama. He was competitive in round 1. Showed good hands rocking Onama. He has showed some decent grappling against lesser comp, but Onama was way too much in the grappling department. He trains out of killclifffc. Puts together nice combinations. His strikes have a nice snap on the end of them

This is a very very close fight. I wanted to take Johnson, but yet again I have a slight lean toward the favorite. Not sure I’ll be betting this fight. Kind think it ends in a finish though

Joe Solecki vs Carl Deaton

Carl Deaton is a guy I know well from his stint in the PFL. He is not good. Don’t know why he is in the UFC. I guess it’s to give Solecki a get right fight. They must have felt bad after Saint Denis pulled out and decided to throw him a bone. Deaton was a high school wrestler, but can really be exposed with grappling. That’s what Solecki does. Solecki by sub. Easy money