UFC Vegas 74 Full Card Breakdown
Plus full Betting Card
UFC Vegas 74
First Look Rule Outs
Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda
Both guys look very different fight to fight. I lean Caceres, but don’t like taking him as a favorite. No bet here
Daniel Santos vs Johnny Munoz
I like Daniel Santos, but he is very hitable. Too hitable. If the line was a little closer I may have took a shot. I’ll leave it to y’all to win some money on this one
Jamie Mullarkey vs Muhammad Naimov
Line is too wide. I fully expect a finish from Mullarkey, but there’s not enough juice for this squeeze
Elise Reed vs Jinh Yu Frey
Low level womens MMA. We don’t bet low level womens MMA
After Tape Rule Outs
Karine Silva vs Ketlen Souza
Really was planning on taking Silva by sub. I still think that’s the most likely outcome, but on a card filled with good betting opportunities I’d rather avoid betting on a finish in a Womens MMA fight between two girls still trying to prove they belong in the upper echelon
Fighters I’m Betting on
Jim Miller - I was going to bet Jim Miller to get a finish against Gordon. When Gordon had to pull out I was bummed because I thought we would be seeing a -600 Jim Miller. The lines come out and he’s -230. They pretzeled me. I watched tape on this kid and he seems okay. He’s aggressive and hits hard. He’s also fighting up a weight class, on two days notice against the guy who has the most fights in UFC history. Favorite or pass here. I can’t not bet Jim Miller. He’s my all time most profitable fighter. WAR MILLER
Philipe Lins - I’ve come around a bit on Philipe Lins. These two were supposed to fight in 2022 and I was predicting Grishin to get the knockout. A year later and I’ve flipped completely. Lins is a lot better at 205. He’s faster, he has more power and he’s not going to have a hard time with the size of Grishin. Grishin is a massive light heavyweight and it gives guys problems (some guys. Like William Knight type guys), but Lins is used to the heavyweight frame. I see him going out there and getting a quick KO
Don’Tale Mayes - “Kyle, you are trying bet safer, but you just bet on Philipe Lins and now Don’Tale Mayes. What is wrong with you?!” I know, I know Mayes is no world beater, but he’s fighting the shell of the shell of the washed up chin, that recovered and is now a guy who can eat one, but taps to anything even remotely close, Andre Arlovski. Mayes is a decent athlete with good size. At this point that is enough to warrant a bet against the pit bull
Muin Gafurov - I was super high on Gafurov in his DWCS fight. He burned me hard, but watching tape on him since then just reaffirms what I saw in him. An athletic, hard hitting dude with a wrestling trump card. Yes, this fight is on short notice, but I just told you, he has the trump card. He can wrestle all day. He will lean on it for this short notice call. Muin makes it look relatively easy and is a hard fight for most on the roster going forward
Victor Altamirano - The heart strings are pulling for Tim Elliot, but Altamirano is a bad matchup for him. Altamirano may get taken down, but he has a good get up game, An underrated gas tank and good technical striking. Elliot is going to come in like a mad man. I see him getting picked apart by heavy shots by Altamirano. I also think Altamirano is tough enough to survive an early storm if needed
Luan Lacerda - Was super impressed with what I saw against Stamann. He hits hard and should be the far superior striker over Blackshear. I also suspect Luan is the better offensive wrestler. Blackshear is great in a scramble, but was dominated on the mat by Zalal. I have a feeling Lacerda is a lot better than Zalal. Love this fight, love this line
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos - He’s had a long layoff due to a steroid suspension, but he just beat the breaks off of Denis. Abubakar is a nurmagomedov, but he doesn’t bring the fear like his brothas. Dos Santos keeps it standing and destroys Abubakar. Don’t understand the line at all. Must be name value
Kai Kara France - was looking great against the champ until he wasn’t. He’s fought The Who’s who of the division. Brings toughness and extreme speed and athleticism. This kid is the real deal and I still think future champ. He makes a statement tomorrow
Official Betting Card
Jim Miller ITD line not out yet 1 unit play when available
Jim Miller Round 1 line not out yet 1 unit play when available
Philipe Lins ITD +330 Bet 1 unit to win 3.3
Philipe Lins Round 1 +650 Bet .5 units to win 3.25
Don’Tale Mayes ITD +200 Bet 1 unit to win 2
Don’Tale Mayes Round 1 +400 Bet .5 units to win 2
Muin Gafurov +115 Bet 3 units to win 3.45
Muin Gafurov by Dec +330 Bet 1 unit to win 3.3
Victor Altamirano +155 Bet 2 units to win 3.1
Victor Altamirano ITD +450 Bet .5 units to win 2.25
Victor Altamirano Round 1 +900 Bet .5 units to win 4.5
Jim Miller + Luan Lacerda = +136 Bet 3 units to win 4.08
Kai Kara France + Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos = +272 Bet 2 units to win 5.44
Kai Kara France to win in rounds 3,4,5 (+2000, +2500, +3500) Bet .25 units on each